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(Rasmussen) Partisan Trends: Republicans 35.4%, Democrats 34.0%, Unaffiliateds 30.5% (< 1% MOE)
RasmussenReports ^ | 2 Jul 12 | Rasmussen Reports

Posted on 07/21/2012 8:35:29 AM PDT by xzins

Monday, July 02, 2012

The number of Democrats and Republicans in the United States held relatively steady in June,

snip

During June, 35.4% of Americans considered themselves Republicans, down slightly from 35.7% in May.

Rasmussen Reports tracks this information based on telephone interviews with approximately 15,000 adults per month since November 2002. The margin of error for the full sample is less than one percentage point, with a 95% level of confidence.

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Extended News; Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: elections; partisan; partyaffiliation

1 posted on 07/21/2012 8:35:40 AM PDT by xzins
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To: All; Lazamataz; P-Marlowe; Alamo-Girl; betty boop; Jim Robinson

So when we see polls giving 5-7 point advantages to Democrats, then we should be highly skeptical


2 posted on 07/21/2012 8:37:39 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: xzins

More proof that Romney is up by about 4-5 points in national and battleground polls - as most sample Dems +4-9.


3 posted on 07/21/2012 8:40:12 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: xzins

In Rise of the Black Serial Killer: Blacks represent 88.24% of the number of serial killers apprehended since 2010, yet only account for 12.6% of the populace.....

In Rise of the Black Serial Killer:

Documenting a Startling Trend, Justin Cottrell expels the myth that serial killers in America are predominately white. On the contrary after sifting through a myriad of newspaper records and books, he*s compiled a list of murderers that is equal too or greater than the number of white serial killers from 1860 to present. Few if any have ever heard any of their names or stories, until now.

Based on his findings white serial killers have been underrepresented throughout American history when compared to the percentage of the population they represent by a factor of 1.79 on average.

On the other hand, black serial killers have been overrepresented 2.68 to 7 times their portion of the population, with a 150 year average of 4.18.

Another startling trend he uncovered is black serial killers have never represented less than 26.83% of the number of serial killers in a given decade, despite their overall percentage of the population never exceeding 13.1%.

This trend has steadily increased to the point that in our current decade they represent 88.24% of the number of serial killers apprehended since 2010, yet only account for 12.6% of the populace.

Aside from trends, this book offers reasons most people assume “black serial killers don*t exist” from the media prohibition on the subject, to general misunderstandings. Coupled with this is a look into the various factors that breed serial killers, with a look into why black serial killers are on the rise, while white serial killers are on the decline.

To prove his research is valid, the full list of 836 black serial killer is provided, along with a brief description of their crimes. In addition to this the biographies of 35 of these killers are given, with detailed information about their crimes, including the names of their victims.

-

Washington DC
Chicago Illinois
Detroit Michigan
New Orleans Louisiana
Gary Indiana
St. Louis Missouri
Atlanta Georgia
Los Angeles California
Seattle Washington
Jacksonville Florida
Phoenix Arizona
Houston Texas

- Add the city/cities that you avoid -

-


4 posted on 07/21/2012 8:46:23 AM PDT by devolve (-------------- ------- no servers - no intelligence ----------- ---------------------)
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To: xzins
The good news is the other polls besides Rasmussen are misleading because they do not accurately reflect slight (1.5%) plurality in party affiliation favoring the Republicans. Bad news is that the Rasmussen poll presumably does account for this more accurate breakdown of party affiliation and therefore where Rasmussen has Romney and other Republicans behind, the poll is probably accurate.

Of course, these numbers do not purport to concern themselves with turnout and enthusiasm.

Finally, there seems to be an anomaly. Obviously with independents amounting to 30.5% they will decide the election no matter what the relative turnout amounts to. By all accounts, independents have been favoring Romney and Republicans over Democrats by substantial margins yet this dichotomy does not seem to be represented in the very close percentages for Romney and for Obama in the Rasmussen daily tracking polls.

Furthermore, Obama is not faring well in important issue polling numbers such as, the condition of the economy and right direction-wrong direction questions yet one would have expected these issues to have adversely affected Obama's numbers.

My belief is that the independents are hanging fire until they are compelled by other events or the calendar to make clear their preference. At that time I believe they will break heavily against Obama barring an October surprise or major gaffes by Romney if they can conclude from watching the debates and Romney's everyday performance that he is "presidential." Yet this supposition must be confronted by the fact that Rasmussen consistently shows only about 4% of the electorate "undecided" in his daily tracking polls.

I would welcome comments.


5 posted on 07/21/2012 9:08:06 AM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: xzins
About this time in 2010 the numbers were roughly 40-40 ish. I see a trend towards Unaffiliated but that is a wide net. You have REP who are aligning with the Tea Party and RAT who are avoiding the label. This is the one that interests me the most, as i think the Reagan democrats want a "safer label" so they can (psychologically speaking)give themselves permission to not vote for Obie. The GOP who lean unaffiliated will not cross over.

M2C

6 posted on 07/21/2012 9:10:35 AM PDT by IllumiNaughtyByNature ($1.84 - The price of a gallon of gas on Jan. 20th, 2009.)
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To: xzins

This illustrates why the polls showing an even race are bovine excrement. If Obama is badly behind among independents, losing some of his support among women, behind in fundraising, and has even lost some ground with blacks and Hispanics, there is NO possible way this is even. They are using 2008 data to do these polls, then fudging even more to get it to even. It ain’t 2008 no more.


7 posted on 07/21/2012 9:11:27 AM PDT by cdcdawg
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To: nathanbedford
Finally, there seems to be an anomaly.

I have noticed the same thing.

Raz is, I think we can all agree, the most accurate of the pollsters. If he is using a 35D/35R mix with 30% I and Romney winning the I's then we should be seeing much better GOP polling numbers. Maybe he isn't using that mix.

'Tis a mystery to me.

8 posted on 07/21/2012 9:17:33 AM PDT by InterceptPoint (TIN)
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To: xzins

Thanks for the ping!


9 posted on 07/21/2012 9:41:34 AM PDT by Alamo-Girl
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To: xzins
This story (http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/obama-campaign-spends-more-26-million-polling-june_648846.html) says Zero ran a deficit last month in his campaign and spent $2.6 m on polling.

Yeah, that really has the look of a winning campaign, doesn't it?

10 posted on 07/21/2012 9:43:01 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: nathanbedford

See the article I posted below your comment. Obama campaign in the hole for last month and spent $2.6m on POLLING. And we’re to believe he’s ahead?????


11 posted on 07/21/2012 9:45:20 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: devolve

Interesting, but what does it have to do with the topic, and do you have a source other than just a name for this researcher?


12 posted on 07/21/2012 9:46:17 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: xzins

It’s the 30% unaffliated that bothers me the most. Know what you believe and believe it. This group is either too ignorant to care, or so arrogant they think they are ABOVE both parties, both of these type of people drive me crazy.


13 posted on 07/21/2012 9:47:33 AM PDT by skinndogNN
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To: IllumiNaughtyByNature

I think the trend of which you speak is that republicans say they are unaffiliated so as not to be labeled racist with a black president; democrats on the other hand are becoming unaffiliated just because of their preception that this black president is racist and therefore do not want to be associated with the dem party (other factors such as immigration, the economy, etc., may also factor against dem party membership as the party leaves those individuals). Independents just like to waffle and not have to have a choice in most cases; for 30 percent of the voting public to not have an opinion is bunk - they just don’t have spines due to soft living;)


14 posted on 07/21/2012 10:19:21 AM PDT by Jumper
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Click.

Set it right. Donate to Free Republic.

15 posted on 07/21/2012 11:07:22 AM PDT by RedMDer (https://support.woundedwarriorproject.org/default.aspx?tsid=93destr)
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To: LS; devolve
I'd like to see a link as well. Wouldn't surprise me, though.


16 posted on 07/21/2012 11:30:13 AM PDT by rdb3 (We need Ward Cleaver for President. We already have Eddie Haskell. (ATB))
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To: nathanbedford

Rasmussen’s database is so huge at this point that it’s hard to argue with his party affiliation breakdown.

The bad news is that Rasmussen still has Obama leading Romney by 2 points....a virtual tie.

When looking at other pollsters the other day, I noticed they like to add a bit of special sauce to the numbers. They’ll add census data or historic data of various forms to their polling data on party affiliation. Rasmussen, on the other hand, has put all his eggs in the polling basket.

Rasmussen actually makes sense. Party ID is not a static thing. It changes, and sometimes it changes rapidly. His polling is the best way to capture that.

What you told the census in 2010 could mean nothing now. How you voted in 2008 could mean nothing now.

My sense is that independents are not the same as undecideds. I became an independent 4 years ago and am still. It means that I don’t want the words “republican” or “democrat” associated with me at all. The republicans left me when they became a new spend and borrow party.

Therefore, there are conservative independents, liberal independents, and moderate independents.


17 posted on 07/21/2012 11:52:30 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: skinndogNN

See #17


18 posted on 07/21/2012 11:54:41 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: xzins
My sense is that independents are not the same as undecideds.

I agree with the entirety of your posts including the highlighted portion above. But that still does not explain the apparent anomaly.


19 posted on 07/21/2012 1:05:23 PM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: nathanbedford

If there is one thing to count on with Romney it is that he will wipe the floor in a debate with The Disaster. Not only is he much smarter (which would not take much) but he is unflappable. The other Republicans hit him with anything including the kitchen sink and he just stood there an smiled as though they had said he was perfect.

Hence, your scenario is very positive for the GOP.


20 posted on 07/21/2012 2:43:10 PM PDT by arrogantsob (Obama must Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: devolve

Are you trying to avoid “serial killers” by staying out of those cities?


21 posted on 07/21/2012 2:44:16 PM PDT by arrogantsob (Obama must Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: LS

And they had money coming out of their ears. Great stuff.


22 posted on 07/21/2012 2:46:30 PM PDT by arrogantsob (Obama must Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: nathanbedford

Very good analysis.


23 posted on 07/21/2012 6:25:42 PM PDT by mandaladon (PalinGenesis)
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To: xzins

What worries me about our “independents” is that every time I see a blogger marking him/herself as “Independent” as opposed to “Republican” or “Democrat” they seem to go into a liberal rant. It is as though some libs want to pretend that they thought things through analytically to come to their liberal viewpoint. Add that to the 47 percent who DON’T pay federal taxes and it is easy to believe there are more of them than there are of us. We can only hope that there really are a significant number of true “independents” and that they love this country as much as we do. Four more years of Obama and this country may turn into a dictatorship while the media sits on the sideline and cheers.


24 posted on 07/21/2012 6:43:03 PM PDT by onevoter
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To: arrogantsob

Romney SHOULD wipe the floor with Obama during the debates but don’t forget that the MSM will do everything in their power to cover for the Amateur-in-Chief. Look at what happened with Hillary and the Amateur. Fortunately for the media, they didn’t have to work hard at making McCain look dumber than Obama - he did that all by himself.


25 posted on 07/21/2012 6:46:37 PM PDT by onevoter
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To: skinndogNN
Or like me see that we have choice in the election.
Your choice is a Socialist and a Marxist.
Romney has yet to put forth any plan to deal with our problems.
There has to be a reason to vote for this guy rather anyone but Obama.
You really believe that Romney would change anything or that the Republicans are going to do anything except be more like Democrats? We had a fake Conservative in Bush who along with his Republican Congress enacted more new spending and entitlements than any President since Johnson and actually spent 23% more in real Dollars than Johnson did in 1965.

We are on the trajectory we are and there is no stopping it, either the Debt and or health-care costs will get us along with the entitlements that we cannot afford.

26 posted on 07/21/2012 6:59:31 PM PDT by Captain Peter Blood
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To: onevoter

I am an independent....a conservative independent. I will vote for the most conservative candidate in any given race. I left the republicans in 2008 after the McCain wimp-campaign. Didn’t want their name associated with me.


27 posted on 07/21/2012 7:23:21 PM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: skinndogNN

Well I was a Republican who is now independent. It does not mean I don’t know what I believe or am ignorant. I feel how Ronald Reagan described the Democrat party. I didn’t leave it. It left me.


28 posted on 07/21/2012 8:59:31 PM PDT by unlearner (You will never come to know that which you do not know until you first know that you do not know it.)
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To: xzins
The excuse they give for giving advantages is they say democrats don't like to take a poll when they are called.

I would say it is more likely that is closer to the margin of corruption.

29 posted on 07/22/2012 12:17:04 AM PDT by Steve Van Doorn (*in my best Eric Cartman voice* 'I love you, guys')
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To: nathanbedford; InterceptPoint

Maybe the Free Republic anti-Romney effect is to blame.

If enough Republicans and Independents won’t vote for Romney, but still call themselves, “conservative,” you wind up with more people overall voting for 0bama of making it a virtual tie under bad circumstances for 0bama.

We can all assure 0bama wins if Romney doesn’t get votes from us. Not that I’m pushing that, here...


30 posted on 07/22/2012 8:33:03 PM PDT by ConservativeMind ("Humane" = "Don't pen up pets or eat meat, but allow infanticide, abortion, and euthanasia.")
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