Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Election Projection update for July 24 - light blue states abound -11 states weak Obama
ElectionProjection.com ^ | Scott Elliott ‏ @bloggingcaesar

Posted on 07/24/2012 4:13:06 PM PDT by SMGFan

Historically, a sitting president has been difficult to defeat, and President Obama will be no exception. However, even though he leads Election Projection's electoral vote count by a comfortable margin, 332-206, his advantage is far from comfortable. A closer look at the numbers reveals no less than eleven states currently rated "Weak Obama." These states represent 141 EVs, 77 more than Republican Mitt Romney needs to gain the majority. Florida, Ohio and Virginia are presumed to be must wins for the challenger, and he'll need one more state beyond that to get to 270, the electoral votes needed to win the White House.

Eleven states rated "Weak Obama" today

Colorado (9) Florida (29) Iowa (6) Michigan (16) Minnesota (10) Nevada (6) New Hampshire (4) Ohio (18) Pennsylvania (20) Virginia (13) Wisconsin (10)


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: polls
Liberals doing all they can not to show panic.
1 posted on 07/24/2012 4:13:17 PM PDT by SMGFan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: SMGFan

Map still heavily favors 0bama......I’m still trying to figure how in one election cycle Virgina went form a solid red state to almost true blue.....Minnesota being a “weak 0bama” state is a good sign!


2 posted on 07/24/2012 4:20:04 PM PDT by GR_Jr. (Vote Obama out now.....deal with Romney later.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: GR_Jr.

Polls still favor Obama.

That is the last 6 presidential elections polls skew democrat until about 10 days from the election.

Even when oversampling Ds, Obama still getting under 50%. That is really really bad for a sitting POTUS,even if he is “leading” 48-46 or so.


3 posted on 07/24/2012 4:24:27 PM PDT by Reaganez
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: SMGFan

Hmm. Not sure if this guy’s an optimistic liberal or a pessimistic conservative, but he’s always had Obama comfortably ahead in EVs, even when he’s projected Romney to win the popular vote.


4 posted on 07/24/2012 4:26:38 PM PDT by Random_User_250
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SMGFan
Just three states (California, New York, and Illinois) have 104 EVs between them and they are pretty much solid blue. Without those three states being such an automatic lock for the Democrats, this election wouldn't even be close.

The Republicans need to start pouring some resources into those states and not just write them off. It's probably too late for this election cycle but need to think of the future.

5 posted on 07/24/2012 4:27:36 PM PDT by SamAdams76
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SMGFan

Showing Florida, Ohio and Virginia all as Obama is a complete joke. He’ll be fortunate to win one.


6 posted on 07/24/2012 4:29:50 PM PDT by ilgipper ( November cannot come soon enough)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Random_User_250

You can read more about him , but has long history at his site. Good accuracy.
http://www.electionprojection.com/bloggingcaesar.php/


7 posted on 07/24/2012 4:34:27 PM PDT by SMGFan (SMGfan is not "Sub Machine Gun" fan)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: SMGFan

Eleven states rated “Weak Obama” today

Colorado (9) Florida (29) Iowa (6) Michigan (16) Minnesota (10) Nevada (6) New Hampshire (4) Ohio (18) Pennsylvania (20) Virginia (13) Wisconsin (10)
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Of these “weak” Obama States, I predict that Romney will take Florida (29), Iowa (6), Michigan (16) New Hampshire (4) and Virginia (13); for a total of 274 EVs. AND....

....Romney also has a danged good chance of carrying Ohio (18) and Wisconsin (10) bringing his total to 302 EVs.


8 posted on 07/24/2012 4:35:24 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Reaganez

Yup. Even Reagan polled behind Carter until just before election day....and we know how 1980 turned out


9 posted on 07/24/2012 4:35:34 PM PDT by Nifster
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: SMGFan

bookmark


10 posted on 07/24/2012 4:39:01 PM PDT by 1035rep
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: GR_Jr.
"I’m still trying to figure how in one election cycle Virgina went form a solid red state to almost true blue"

Significantly increase the number of hypocritical government employees who vote for the Democrats that gave them a job, but vote with their feet by moving to the state with the lowest taxes.

11 posted on 07/24/2012 4:50:18 PM PDT by who_would_fardels_bear
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: pistolpackinpapa

can’t see Fla and Va going obozo again....Romney then needs Ohio then i think one other Big Ten state falls to him and he’s over 270...


12 posted on 07/24/2012 4:50:41 PM PDT by God luvs America (63.5million pay no federal income tax then vote demoKrat)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: GR_Jr.

I’ve seen several FReepers claim Virgil whatsisname will pull 5% in Virginia giving Baraq a Clintonian plurality win.


13 posted on 07/24/2012 4:55:36 PM PDT by nascarnation
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Nifster
Even Reagan polled behind Carter until just before election day....and we know how 1980 turned out

Thread winner. It's still too early.

14 posted on 07/24/2012 5:01:37 PM PDT by Repeal 16-17 (Let me know when the Shooting starts.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: SamAdams76

CA is so far gone, it is better to let the laboratory experiment run its course and then point at its failure as an example for future generations of what happens when liberals run amok. Spend the money in the swing states where it matters. Watch CA municipal bankruptcy parade from afar. If you are in CA, you’d better be a prepper.


15 posted on 07/24/2012 5:04:07 PM PDT by ScottinSacto
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: GR_Jr.

this might help...

The politics of Virginia reflect a state that is beginning to experience a conflict between its increasingly liberal northern region and its traditionally conservative southern region. Although traditionally conservative and historically part of the South, modern Virginia is a politically competitive state for both major national parties.

As federal spending continues to grow, a substantial chunk winds up in Northern Virginia. Virginia will NEVER again vote for a presidential candidate serious about reigning in federal agency and federal government power and growth.


16 posted on 07/24/2012 5:18:33 PM PDT by mo (If you understand, no explanation is needed. If you don't understand, no explanation is possible.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: nascarnation
Goode and or Johnson on the ballot in VA, NC, SC, and GA, coupled with changing demographics, could yield some surprising results. Conservatives in these states will not vote for Obama, but many will not vote for Romney.
17 posted on 07/24/2012 6:34:01 PM PDT by buckalfa (Nabob of Negativity)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: God luvs America

If Romney carries FL, OH and VA, then all he needs to reach 270 is New Hampshire’s 4 EVs. Right now, I like our chances.


18 posted on 07/24/2012 6:34:01 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: buckalfa

These candidates are not widely known and have little funding.
They certainly aren’t Ross Perot.

But stranger things have happened.


19 posted on 07/24/2012 6:43:20 PM PDT by nascarnation
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: ilgipper

“Showing Florida, Ohio and Virginia all as Obama is a complete joke. He’ll be fortunate to win one.”

One is all he’d need.


20 posted on 08/01/2012 1:52:30 PM PDT by TomEwall
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: pistolpackinpapa

“Of these “weak” Obama States, I predict that Romney will take Florida (29), Iowa (6), Michigan (16) New Hampshire (4) and Virginia (13); for a total of 274 EVs. AND....

....Romney also has a danged good chance of carrying Ohio (18) and Wisconsin (10) bringing his total to 302 EVs.”

This is the wrong order. It should be Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan.

Michigan’s a stretch. If Romney takes Michigan, he’ll win in a landslide; a lot more than 302 EVs.


21 posted on 08/01/2012 1:55:18 PM PDT by TomEwall
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson