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Should Dems, Anti-Romney Republicans Secretly Fund Goode's Campaign for President?(Dems Push Goode)
Blue Virginia ^

Posted on 07/25/2012 6:35:57 PM PDT by mnehring

Ben Tribbett, one of the state's top bloggers, got me thinking yesterday. He is known as the guy behind the highly rated political blog Not Larry Sabato. But Ben deserves to be even better known as one of the state's best gurus on election statistics down to the precinct level.

Ben has done a lot of mentally "running the numbers" on the potential impact of former Congressman Virgil Goode's run for President as the nominee for the Constitution Party here in Virginia.

Ben is likely - and hopefully soon - to do a blog post an Obama-Romney-Goode race here in the Commonwealth. The media is currently assuming that Goode is not going to be a factor in who wins the White House. They have been assuming the president will win Virginia handily as the polls had been indicating, or that Goode's support in any poll will disappear in November.

But yesterday, a two-way poll in Virginia between President Obama and former Governor Romney showed a dead heat. The national polls are showing a dead heat, with some pundits suggesting Virginia could be the deciding state in the Electoral College.

So again, I am writing in part to encourage Ben - I know he is busy - to lay out the numbers so we all can improve our knowledge here.

We all know what Ralph Nader did in Florida to cost Al Gore the Presidency. We all know what followed in terms of the George W. Bush years. Presidential elections matter. A lot.

A few weeks ago, I was interviewed by a national reporter about Goode's candidacy for President. I said the polls were wrong in saying he would be a big factor in Southwest, where his positions on immigration policy appealed to the most conservative, Republican elements of the area. My view was this: those voters really didn't know Goode and in the end, most would vote for Romney as the viable anti-Obama candidate.

But as to Virginia, I said this: Goode is known in certain parts of the state, and has always shown support there with high name ID in surrounding areas. Goldmanusa :: Should Dems, Anti-Romney Republicans Secretly Fund Goode's Campaign for President? So I figured there was a good chance Goode could get some of those folks if they remained skeptical about Romney especially if the GOP nominee was seen as shifting to a more moderate position on immigration. But I couldn't quantify even a range of potential hard core support. Ben has given it a lot more thought and mathematical analysis.

Again, there is no way to ever know and polls tend to be very unreliable in that they generally way overstate the final vote of a guy like Goode. So one has to avoid getting stuck on a specific number.

BUT there is one thing for certain: Almost all of those who ultimately wind-up voting for Virgil Goode in Virginia would NOT have voted for President Obama.

Therefore, if you assume a close Electoral College race for President, one potential political strategy makes a huge amount of campaign sense for Democrats and those Republicans who don't want to see Romney elected President:

Give money, get money, to the Virginia campaign of Virgil Goode.

Indeed, under the new campaign rules, a group of Dems/Anti-Romney Republicans can masquerade as a pro-Goode SUPER PAC, and secretly fund the whole effort.

As Ben can show, there is an existing pool of potential 2012 voters in Virginia who Goode has a chance of wooing over to his side....with a sufficient amount of money and campaign luck.

It doesn't take a math genius to know that 50-50 Obama vs Romney race in VA could easily come out 49.5 for Obama, 48.5 for Romney and 2.0 for Goode.

Moreover, to the extent the Romney campaign comes to believe it might lose VA, then it has to make some very hard and potentially wrong strategy decisions on how to make up the 13 electoral votes.

MEANING: The viability of the Goode campaign in VA - forget the rest of the country - needs to get some more attention by the national press, indeed the VA press.

Virgil is no more qualified to be President than Michele Bachmann or Herman Cain. But in Virginia, the former populist Democrat turned Independent turned conservative Republican turned anti-immigrant Constitutional Party presidential nominee could be the nut in the coconut for the White House come November.

So, I ask you: Given the current polls, the current logic and the current realities, what is more likely to change the outcome of the presidential election? 1) Another $5 million spent on TV ADS focused on Obama or Romney in one way or another; or 2) using that same $5 million to promote Virgil Goode as a protest vote on immigration policy (or whatever), helping persuade voters they can have the biggest impact by using their vote to send both parties a message?

If you will not believe your own common sense, then Ben's numbers will make you see that Virgil Goode, with that kind of chump changed in terms of what is being spent, has as yet an unappreciated ability - with enough money - to get enough votes in Virginia to likely guarantee a win for President Obama in the Old Dominion. And that, in turn, could easily be the key to winning President Obama a second term in the White House.

As a pure matter of risk vs reward, the "risk" of losing votes because you didn't spend that $5 million on either a pro-Obama or anti-Romney ad is far, far less than the potential "reward" of spending that money on pro-Goode ads, thus generating votes for the former Congressman's presidential bid, in turn taking them from Romney, in turn helping Obama win Virginia.

I bet that right now, there are some very smart people sitting around gaming out a strategy of how to make sure Goode gets the benefit of this kind of money, if not more.

In 2000, it was Florida: In 1916, it was California. In 1888, it was New York. In 1884, it was New York again. In 1876, it was Florida. In 1800, it was Delaware. In 2012, it could be Virginia. Which means it could be Virginia's Virgil Goode who determines the 2012 presidential election outcome, one way or the other.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: democrat; donors; elections; goode; goode2012; obama; romney; spoiler; thirdparty; va2012; virginia
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1 posted on 07/25/2012 6:36:11 PM PDT by mnehring
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To: mnehring
former populist Democrat turned Independent turned conservative Republican turned anti-immigrant Constitutional Party presidential nominee

...who's his campaign manager, Dr Seuss?

2 posted on 07/25/2012 6:41:01 PM PDT by Doogle ((USAF.68-73..8th TFW Ubon Thailand..never store a threat you should have eliminated))
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To: mnehring

Anti Romney Republicans, there aren’t any.
It’s conservatives who don’t like Romney.


3 posted on 07/25/2012 6:41:19 PM PDT by svcw (If one living cell on another planet is life, why isn't it life in the womb?)
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To: svcw

LOL That’s about the size of it.


4 posted on 07/25/2012 6:43:37 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: cripplecreek

Sorry, but I can’t understand why self proclaimed conservatives think that 4 more years of Obama will be better for the country than Romney. I would love to hear that argument.


5 posted on 07/25/2012 6:48:31 PM PDT by RayBob (If guns kill people, can I blame misspelled words on my keyboard?)
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To: RayBob
Sorry, but I can’t understand why self proclaimed conservatives think that 4 more years of Obama will be better for the country than Romney. I would love to hear that argument. There is no good argument for it, but you'll here them wax with great stupidity eloquent here everyday about it......
6 posted on 07/25/2012 6:53:25 PM PDT by Lakeshark (I don't care for Mitt, the alternative is unthinkable)
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To: mnehring

Sounds like a great plan for Dems. He will be a good candidate for them.


7 posted on 07/25/2012 6:59:24 PM PDT by pallis
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To: RayBob

ALL Conservatives are self proclaimed. We believe in individual responsibility and in individual Freedoms and Liberties. We are not a collective and we need no coronation to know who and what we are. The problem comes in when someone self proclaims themselves to be a Conservative when they are not a Conservative.

LLS


8 posted on 07/25/2012 7:02:09 PM PDT by LibLieSlayer (Don't Tread On Me)
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To: mnehring

Get REAL!


9 posted on 07/25/2012 7:04:39 PM PDT by SMM48
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To: pallis

Goode was a Dem just a few years back, I bet he still has his membership card.


10 posted on 07/25/2012 7:07:49 PM PDT by mnehring
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks mnehring.
11 posted on 07/25/2012 7:13:15 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: mnehring

If I were a Democratic strategist, I’d be thinking about giving Goode a $100m war chest to slam Romney. The beauty of donating to Goode is that Democrats who have maxed out their individual contributions ($5K limit) to Obama can donate another $5K to Goode. It worked for Patrick Deval in MA, and it certainly could help Obama.


12 posted on 07/25/2012 7:13:52 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: Zhang Fei

Voting for Goode equals - NUTS!


13 posted on 07/25/2012 7:14:51 PM PDT by GlockThe Vote (The Obama Adminstration: 2nd wave of attacks on America after 9/11)
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To: GlockThe Vote

A spoiler to take votes away from Romney.


14 posted on 07/25/2012 7:17:54 PM PDT by NY Attitude (Make love not war but be prepared for either.)
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To: mnehring
But in Virginia, the former populist Democrat turned Independent turned conservative Republican turned anti-immigrant Constitutional Party presidential nominee could be the nut in the coconut for the White House come November.

He sounds like a nut, all right.

15 posted on 07/25/2012 7:23:47 PM PDT by SuziQ
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To: RayBob

4 more years of Obama vs 8 for Romney.

You vote for Romney here and Romney wins, - you will never see another republican prolifer nominated.


16 posted on 07/25/2012 7:25:49 PM PDT by JCBreckenridge (Texas, Texas, Whisky)
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To: NY Attitude

Romney was my last choice. However, Ghettobama must go!


17 posted on 07/25/2012 7:26:50 PM PDT by GlockThe Vote (The Obama Adminstration: 2nd wave of attacks on America after 9/11)
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To: mnehring

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9IJUkYUbvI

So this is the man that you’re willing to hitch your wagon to?


18 posted on 07/25/2012 7:28:54 PM PDT by JCBreckenridge (Texas, Texas, Whisky)
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To: JCBreckenridge

I’m under no illusion as to who Romney is. Right now though, getting rid of Obama is the #1 priority.

As Winston Churchill said: “If Hitler invaded hell I would make at least a favorable reference to the devil in the House of Commons..”

That seems like a small version of the dilemma Churchill faced when he allied with Stalin to stop Hitler. Sometimes you have to deal with the greater threat in front of you first. This isn’t one of those years where we have a wishey, washy Dem like Bill Clinton- we have a full blown Marxist activist on our hands.


19 posted on 07/25/2012 7:42:11 PM PDT by mnehring
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To: mnehring

If you put Romney in, who’s going to fight for us? Are you willing to elect Hitler to represent you?

I’m not. We put Romney in, we have nobody to fight for us - and that’s far, far worse than having to fight Obama.

Imagine if the UK never ditched Chamberlain? Are you willing to fight with Chamberlain and risk total defeat?


20 posted on 07/25/2012 7:45:55 PM PDT by JCBreckenridge (Texas, Texas, Whisky)
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To: JCBreckenridge

The Muslim trash we currently have in the White House needs to go.

Here’s a really good ad put out by American Crossroads.

http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?feature=player_embedded&v=-Czo5Vf8KZs


21 posted on 07/25/2012 7:46:31 PM PDT by 1035rep
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To: 1035rep

“The Muslim trash we currently have in the White House needs to go.”

I agree, but replacing him with a different brand of trash isn’t going to help us.

Goode’s the only prolifer on the ballot, the only one who believes that babykilling is wrong. Come fight with us instead of carrying water for Romney who despises you.


22 posted on 07/25/2012 7:49:14 PM PDT by JCBreckenridge (Texas, Texas, Whisky)
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To: JCBreckenridge

“We put Romney in, we have nobody to fight for us - and that’s far, far worse than having to fight Obama.”

Total BS. Even if we take the Senate Obama will have veto power. I want him, his czars, his executive orders and that lame ass Holder out. In case you haven’t noticed Obama doesn’t follow the rules. He suspends laws (immigration) when it suits him, and even now he is gutting welfare reform. He’s declared himself King and nothing will stop him if he gets a 2nd term.


23 posted on 07/25/2012 7:55:43 PM PDT by 1035rep
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To: mnehring

It’s funny that some ‘conservatives’ objected to Perry, Pawlenty, etc., on the ground that they were Democrats once, yet accept Goode who changes party affiliation like changing underwear (and much more recent). I guess, as long as someone say something that they want to hear, he’s fine.


24 posted on 07/25/2012 7:56:57 PM PDT by paudio (OTP: Why do people want to rehire a mechanic who clearly only made their car worse than before?)
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To: JCBreckenridge

There is no other option. We have to fight for ourselves, not look for someone else to fight for us. Right now, there are only two people who mathematically will be president, Obama or Romney. None of these third party types will get on enough ballots to even come close to the electoral votes needed for a win. They are nothing more than feeding one’s own ego.

At that, one of the big problems I see is exactly what you expressed, we are always looking for someone to fight for us. We need to fight for ourselves.

At this point, we are hiring someone to be Commander in Chief of the US Armed Forces, not some liberator or champion. I for one, can’t stomach the thought of our soldiers saluting Obama for one more day than is necessary.


25 posted on 07/25/2012 7:57:16 PM PDT by mnehring
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To: 1035rep

“Total BS. Even if we take the Senate Obama will have veto power. I want him, his czars, his executive orders and that lame ass Holder out. In case you haven’t noticed Obama doesn’t follow the rules. He suspends laws (immigration) when it suits him, and even now he is gutting welfare reform. He’s declared himself King and nothing will stop him if he gets a 2nd term.”

And what happens to us when Romney puts his stamp on Obamacare and republicans start believing they have to support gay marriage, abortion and O-care in order to get elected?

The only worse disaster than Obama is electing his republican counterpart.


26 posted on 07/25/2012 7:58:34 PM PDT by JCBreckenridge (Texas, Texas, Whisky)
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To: paudio

“I guess, as long as someone say something that they want to hear, he’s fine.”

Then why aren’t we backing Romney? He’s been everything to everyone.


27 posted on 07/25/2012 8:00:23 PM PDT by JCBreckenridge (Texas, Texas, Whisky)
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To: mnehring

“They are nothing more than feeding one’s own ego.”

Is the purpose of an election to vote for the winner or to vote for the candidate who’s beliefs are closest to their own?


28 posted on 07/25/2012 8:04:05 PM PDT by JCBreckenridge (Texas, Texas, Whisky)
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To: JCBreckenridge

The Kenyan needs to go while we still have a country left to save. I don’t want find out what he’s going to do for Russia when he has “more flexibility after the election”


29 posted on 07/25/2012 8:07:54 PM PDT by 1035rep
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To: JCBreckenridge
“We are losing our country to godless socialism and what does the GOP do? Run an abortionist/homosexualist statist whose socialist RomneyCare program was the blueprint and impetus for ObamaCare! Screw that!! I’ll vote for the GOP’s candidate for the presidency when they run a CONSERVATIVE!! Otherwise, to hell with them!! The GOP is fast cementing their place as part of the problem! Wake up America!!”

No I will not vote for an abortionist for president. Period. It’s no secret. I’ve been posting that I will not vote for Rudy/Romney abortionist for many years.

Welcome to Free Republic, America’s exclusive site for God, Family, Country, Life & Liberty conservatives!

Romney does not qualify on any count!

J.R.

I agree whole heartedly.

30 posted on 07/25/2012 8:13:19 PM PDT by Graybeard58 (Free people, when presented only with evil choices, create other choices.(EternalVigilance))
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To: 1035rep

If he tries that stunt we impeach him.


31 posted on 07/25/2012 8:13:19 PM PDT by JCBreckenridge (Texas, Texas, Whisky)
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To: Graybeard58

A-men.

Well said, JR and all the rest of you. Thanks!!


32 posted on 07/25/2012 8:17:43 PM PDT by JCBreckenridge (Texas, Texas, Whisky)
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To: JCBreckenridge
Is the purpose of an election to vote for the winner or to vote for the candidate who’s beliefs are closest to their own?

I salute you, sir.

33 posted on 07/25/2012 8:28:50 PM PDT by Colonel_Flagg (Conservatism is not a matter of convenience.)
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To: JCBreckenridge

That’s nonsense, and if Obama wins it won’t matter if another Republican prolifer is ever nominated...the battle will have been lost.

You are an opponent of the continuation of the Republic as we know it with that kind of logic...as bad as the most militant OWS activist.


34 posted on 07/25/2012 8:34:06 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: Republican Wildcat

“You are an opponent of the continuation of the Republic as we know it with that kind of logic...as bad as the most militant OWS activist.”

No, the true enemies are the folks that put up an election between two babykillers.


35 posted on 07/25/2012 8:56:56 PM PDT by JCBreckenridge (Texas, Texas, Whisky)
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To: JCBreckenridge

JCBreckenridge member for less than 5 months now.

Effin troll....


36 posted on 07/25/2012 9:00:49 PM PDT by datura (Democrat = Socialist, Progressive Democrat = Communist)
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To: JCBreckenridge

Nah, Romney is not like, say, Christine O’Donnell who was the darling of some conservatives... until she endorsed Romney, of course.


37 posted on 07/25/2012 9:04:48 PM PDT by paudio (OTP: Why do people want to rehire a mechanic who clearly only made their car worse than before?)
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To: datura

Why am I a troll?

Because I refuse to vote for Romney?


38 posted on 07/25/2012 9:07:09 PM PDT by JCBreckenridge (Texas, Texas, Whisky)
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To: Graybeard58

If Obama wins another term - there will be NO more freedom of religion, the family unit will be destroyed, America as we know & love her - will cease to exist, death panels will end lives - and you can forget about liberty!

To say that Romney would be worse than Obama - is just too crazy to think about! With Romney - we live to fight another day............with Obama - it’s OVER - there will be no 2016! You people are scaring me to death!


39 posted on 07/25/2012 9:36:45 PM PDT by alicewonders (I like the GOP Briefing Room for rational adult debate.)
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To: datura; JCBreckenridge

I fully agree with him, and for much the same reasons. Look up MY entry date and call ME a troll.

Twit.


40 posted on 07/25/2012 9:42:05 PM PDT by dcwusmc (A FREE People have no sovereign save Almighty GOD!!! III OK We are EVERYWHERE!!!)
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To: dcwusmc

I fully DISagree with him - and you - and I don’t give a tinkers Damn when you or he started here.

I didn’t vote Romney in the prima,ry but I will put my personal feelings aside and do what is right for America and that is voting Obama OUT.

Anything else is unthinkable.


41 posted on 07/25/2012 9:51:23 PM PDT by bill1952 (Choice is an illusion created between those with power - and those without)
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To: Lakeshark
well, at least we'll know who to blame if bamey gets another round of 4....

over the years, there's been lots of differences here on FR....about money, sex, jobs, pensions, movies,music,cooking,gardening,culture, etc etc...

but to have people openly hoping that the dictator in chief, the muslim, the racist, the arrogant, and narcissistic bamey be kept in charge of all of us...him with his Holder and his pelosi etc...its just unbelievable....it'll be the end of us...

42 posted on 07/25/2012 10:27:05 PM PDT by cherry (/)
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To: cherry

Exactly...I just cannot fathom the idea of leaving the Marxist in office. It’s. like I’m the only person who has been reading the news over the last 4 years. Everyday it’s a horror show that cannot end soon enough.


43 posted on 07/25/2012 10:33:57 PM PDT by SoDak
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To: alicewonders

I’ve just given up on some folks here....we have no country anymore.....


44 posted on 07/25/2012 10:41:49 PM PDT by cherry (/)
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To: cherry

I read some of the posts here anymore & I am absolutely speechless! To say that it would be better if Obama wins four more years than to do anything possible to kick his a$$ out......I’m speechless!

To live in Virginia & throw your vote away on a third party candidate - who hasn’t a chance to win - VIRGINIA! A crucial state that can make the difference of Obama winning or losing - to actually encourage Virginians to do that.....there is not a doubt in my mind that you would have to be either an Obamabot or a crazy zealot (but I repeat myself).

There, I’ve said it. Crazy any way you look at it!


45 posted on 07/25/2012 11:00:09 PM PDT by alicewonders (I like the GOP Briefing Room for rational adult debate.)
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To: mnehring

Goode was a Dem just a few years back
______________________________________________

So ???

So was Willard...

But that doesnt seem to have stopped you from being a RomneyBot...

At least Goode mixed with Americans from all political persuasions...

Until 1994 when Willie decided to run for US Senate in MASS and couldnt run as a Dem,... that was taken by Ted...the Romneys were Democrats, voting supporting, endorsing, donating to DEMOCRATS...

So poor Willie had to accept the Republican nomination, but not to worry, he ran as a DEMOCRAT... with a Democrat view on the issues...

Which meant he had rto our-DEemocrat Teddy6...

So he ran as far left without ru8nning ionto the Pacific Ocaen as he could...

Teddy was slimmer then so Willie had no trouble dodging to the left and passing him ball in hand...boasting he was more liberal than Ted on abortion and gay rights etc...

However while he was WAAAAAAY over to the left and almost into the bleachers he fumbled dropped the ball, which bounced right to Teddy who scooped it up and ran for the goal...

Ann Romney said once that until Willie ran for the US Senate they didnt even KNOW any Republicans..that was some isolated Democrat life they led...

Plus Willie said that when he ran for the Senate in 1994 he didnt know who Reagan was...

How did he live in the US and manage that ???

Words mean things kid...

All this is straight out of their own Democrat mouths...

Now, what was it you were saying about Reagan errr Goode was a Dem just a few years back ???


46 posted on 07/26/2012 4:53:16 AM PDT by Tennessee Nana
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To: 1035rep

The Muslim trash we currently have in the White House needs to go.
______________________________________________

Instead of being obsessed with replacing him with Mormon trash why dont you consider a Christian Conservative ???

We still have Tampa next month...

Wee Willie is not crowned king of America as yet...


47 posted on 07/26/2012 4:58:22 AM PDT by Tennessee Nana
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To: Tennessee Nana
Instead of being obsessed with replacing him with Mormon trash why dont you consider a Christian Conservative ???

We still have Tampa next month...

Wee Willie is not crowned king of America as yet...

Why would any conservative want to support a candidate that has teamed up with a Greenie party? Better be careful - your Obama preference is showing.

So what are you all going to be doing at the convention next month - protesting out there with Code Pink, the Westboro gang and the other Obamabots?

48 posted on 07/26/2012 5:58:49 AM PDT by alicewonders (I like the GOP Briefing Room for rational adult debate.)
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To: alicewonders

So what are you all going to be doing at the convention next month - protesting out there with Code Pink, the Westboro gang and the other Obamabots?
_________________________________________

Why bless yer lil heart...

Inviting me to join yer group ...

Thats raht neighborly of ya...

But no thanks...

Yer politics is not my style..

Ya go ahead though...

Have fun...


49 posted on 07/26/2012 6:24:43 AM PDT by Tennessee Nana
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To: GlockThe Vote

I agree that he must go.


50 posted on 07/26/2012 6:31:51 AM PDT by NY Attitude (Make love not war but be prepared for either.)
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