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In the long run, is the GOP dead?
humanevents.com/ ^ | July 27 2012 | Patrick J. Buchanan

Posted on 07/27/2012 6:41:57 PM PDT by NoLibZone

Since 1928, only Dwight Eisenhower and George W. Bush have won the presidency while capturing both houses of Congress for the GOP.

In his 49-state landslide, Richard Nixon failed to take either House. In his two landslides, Ronald Reagan won back only the Senate. Yet Mitt Romney is even money to pull off the hat trick.

With this hopeful prospect, why the near despair among so many Republicans about the long term?

In his New York Times report, “In California, GOP Fights Steep Decline,” Adam Nagourney delves into the reasons.

In the Golden Land, a state Nixon carried all five times he was on a national ticket and Reagan carried by landslides all four times he ran, the GOP does not hold a single statewide office. It gained not a single House seat in the 2010 landslide. Party registration has fallen to 30 percent of the California electorate and is steadily sinking.

Why? It is said that California Republicans are too out of touch, too socially conservative on issues like right-to-life and gay rights. “When you look at the population growth,” says GOP consultant Steve Schmidt, “the actual party is shrinking. It’s becoming more white. It’s becoming older.”

Race, age and ethnicity are at the heart of the problem. And they portend not only the party’s death in California, but perhaps its destiny in the rest of America.

Consider. Almost 90 percent of all Republican voters in presidential elections are white. Almost 90 percent are Christians. But whites fell to 74 percent of the electorate in 2008 and were only 64 percent of the population. Christians are down to 75 percent of the population from 85 in 1990. The falloff continues and is greatest among the young.

Consider ethnicity. Hispanics were 15 percent of the U.S. population in 2008 and 7.4 percent of the electorate. Both percentages will inexorably rise.

Yet in their best years, like 2004, Republicans lose the Hispanic vote 3-to-2. In bad years, like 2008, they lose it 2-to-1. Whites are already a minority in California, and Hispanics will eventually become the majority.

Say goodbye to the Golden Land.

Asian-Americans voted 3-to-2 for Obama, black Americans 24-to-1. The Asian population in California and the nation is growing rapidly. The black population, 13 percent of the nation, is growing steadily.

Whites, already a minority in our two most populous states, will be less than half the U.S. population by 2041 and a minority in 10 states by 2020.

Consider now the Electoral College picture.

Of the seven mega-states, California, New York and Illinois appear lost to the GOP. Pennsylvania has not gone Republican since 1988. Ohio and Florida, both crucial, are now swing states. Whites have become a minority in Texas. When Texas goes, America goes.

This year could be the last hurrah.

The GOP must work harder to win Hispanic votes, we are told. But consider the home economics and self-interest of Hispanics.

Half of all U.S. wage-earners pay no income tax. Yet that half and their families receive free education K-12, Medicaid, rent supplements, food stamps, earned income tax credits, Pell grants, welfare payments, unemployment checks and other benefits.

Why should poor, working- and middle-class Hispanics, the vast majority, vote for a party that will reduce taxes they don’t pay, but cut the benefits they do receive?

The majority of Latinos, African-Americans, immigrants and young people 18 to 25 pay no income taxes yet enjoy a panoply of government benefits. Does not self-interest dictate a vote for the party that will let them keep what they have and perhaps give them more, rather than the party that will pare back what they now receive?

What are the historic blunders of the Grand Old Party that may yet appear on the autopsy report as probable causes of death?

First, the party, intimidated by name-calling, refused to stop a tidal wave of immigration that brought 40 million people here whose families depend heavily on government. We needed a time-out to assimilate them and see them move out of the tax-consuming sector of the nation.

Republicans acquiesced in the importation of a new electorate that may provide the decisive votes to send the party to the ash heap of history.

Second, Republicans, when enacting tax cuts, repeatedly dropped millions of taxpayers off the rolls, creating a huge class that contributes little to pay for the expanding cornucopia of benefits it receives.

Third, the social revolution of the 1960s captured the culture and converted much of the nation. According to a new Pew poll, the number of Americans who profess a belief in no religion at all has tripled since the 1990s and is now one in five of our countrymen.

If your racial and ethnic voter base is aging, shrinking and dying, your moral code is being rejected, and the tax-consuming class has been allowed to grow to equal or to dwarf the taxpaying class, the Grand Old Party has a problem. But then so, too, does the country.


TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: amnesty; buchanan; culturewars; gop; immigration; noanswers; nosolution; trends
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1 posted on 07/27/2012 6:42:00 PM PDT by NoLibZone
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To: NoLibZone

Half of all U.S. wage-earners pay no income tax. Yet that half and their families receive free education K-12, Medicaid, rent supplements, food stamps, earned income tax credits, Pell grants, welfare payments, unemployment checks and other benefits.

Why should poor, working- and middle-class Hispanics, the vast majority, vote for a party that will reduce taxes they don’t pay, but cut the benefits they do receive?


2 posted on 07/27/2012 6:43:07 PM PDT by NoLibZone (I am with: Sarah, Bachmann, Santorum, Herman Cain, Dick Cheney, W, Rush on Mitt in 2012)
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To: NoLibZone
Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
3 posted on 07/27/2012 6:43:15 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: cripplecreek

Sadly we spent all our time trying to occupy the GOP rather than build a new party.


4 posted on 07/27/2012 6:44:46 PM PDT by NoLibZone (I am with: Sarah, Bachmann, Santorum, Herman Cain, Dick Cheney, W, Rush on Mitt in 2012)
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To: NoLibZone
While I don't disagree with the demographic predictions. I don't think it will result in the demise of the Republican party because as Whites become closer and closer to becoming a minority, they will start aligning more and more with only one party to protect their interests as blacks and Hispanics do with democrat party now. We start to see it already, in the past the white vote split pretty much 50%R/50%Dem, in 2010 it was closer to 60%R/40%D. In another 30 years it will probably be 75%R /25%D.
5 posted on 07/27/2012 6:50:07 PM PDT by apillar
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To: NoLibZone

The GOP has become pretty corrupt. The democrats still have the edge but not by much.

There are some good folks in the GOP and any building needs to start with them.


6 posted on 07/27/2012 6:50:26 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: NoLibZone
Buchanan may be right.Opening the southern border 40 years ago was a masterful move by the Rat Party and will very probably kill this country before long.Fortunately I don't have all that many years left on this earth so my suffering,although intense,will probably be short.It's the kids of today that I feel sorry for.
7 posted on 07/27/2012 6:53:48 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Poor Barack.If He's Reelected,Think Of The Mess He'll Inherit!)
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To: cripplecreek

The GOP is only dead, if it opposes America.

As long as the GOP fights for America, the GOP wins.

So. Fight for America GOP.


8 posted on 07/27/2012 6:54:01 PM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (America doesn't need any new laws. America needs freedom!)
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To: NoLibZone

I don’t see a GOP candidate taking CA or NY anytime in the near future. Obama lands Air Force One in both states long enough to fill his money bags. Union employees, the unemployed and hispanics own those two states.


9 posted on 07/27/2012 6:55:36 PM PDT by Huskrrrr
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To: NoLibZone

It’s somewhere around 50-50 (according to the odds makers). If Obama wins in November, democracy and political parties will no longer be relevant to restoring freedom, and it doesn’t matter what happens between the November election and the unavoidable consequence of that mistake.

If Romney wins, the GOP name will survive. Whether it survives as a big government leftist party or is taken over by the Tea Party is the real question. I want decent Americans to take back the GOP and keep the name (such as it is).


10 posted on 07/27/2012 6:55:45 PM PDT by Pollster1 (Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. - Ronald Reagan)
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To: NoLibZone

Will we become more like Europe?

Or, Mexico?


11 posted on 07/27/2012 6:55:54 PM PDT by umgud (No Rats, No Rino's)
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To: NoLibZone

“In the long run”, said Milton Friedman, and as an economist, Jew, celebrity, and a Nobel prize winner, he’d know better than most, “we’re all dead.”


12 posted on 07/27/2012 6:59:10 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong!)
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To: cripplecreek

Start with Allen West!


13 posted on 07/27/2012 7:00:32 PM PDT by ExTexasRedhead
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To: NoLibZone

14 posted on 07/27/2012 7:02:44 PM PDT by WeatherGuy
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To: NoLibZone

Buchanan hasn’t been right about anything his entire life. He’s properly attacked here on FR for his views. Why would any rational person believe him now?


15 posted on 07/27/2012 7:04:20 PM PDT by sergeantdave (Public unions exist to protect the unions from the taxpaying public)
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To: ExTexasRedhead

I’ve got a good congressman here in Michigan. Tim Walberg is quiet but he’s a solid conservative.


16 posted on 07/27/2012 7:07:45 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: sergeantdave

Buchanan gets a portion of things right.

Others not so much.

He’s like most people that way.


17 posted on 07/27/2012 7:09:29 PM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (America doesn't need any new laws. America needs freedom!)
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To: NoLibZone
There is a strategy we could use to hold off the inevitable a bit longer, but it favors brute pragmatism over conservative idealism and will never get enough support to succeed.

That strategy is for every Republican in a solidly blue state to switch to the Green Party.

If the Green Party gets a sufficient percentage of the national vote then they can become a real third party. The ultraliberals will then feel more comfortable about joining them. This will bleed people away from the Democrats allowing Republicans to win a plurality of votes in many elections.

This will require conservatives to vote for people whom they violently disagree with and who in some cases will be reprehensible human beings.

The ultralibs believe that Obama is a pawn of Big Business. They hate him almost as much as we do. We need to tap into this by supporting the Green Party.

But we won't because good Christians will be repulsed at the thought of voting for gay atheists, 2nd Amendment supporters will lose their lunches at the thought of voting for a gun-grabber, Pro-Lifers will deem it immoral to support a pro-abort, etc.

Voting for a Republican in California or New York or Deleware is truly a wasted voted. Voting Green, although problematic, at least has the advantage of being strategically advantageous.

18 posted on 07/27/2012 7:10:27 PM PDT by who_would_fardels_bear
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To: Gay State Conservative

He’s right, of course. The only way to stop the ongoing destruction of this country via the immigration system is to completely overhaul it to mirror Australia’s, which is based solely on merit, abilify to speak English, and need for employment in hard to fill areas.

Obama has completely opened the southern border via executive fiat, choosing to simply not enforce laws on the books.

Legal immigration is a problem just as much as illegal immigration is a problem at this point, but no one dares tackle it. The average legal immigrant does not contribute to this nation in a positive way, and the statistics bear this out. It’s simply an addition to the national debt.

The reason things haven’t been even worse is that Obama’s economic policies (ie destruction) have slowed immigration to the US.

The cultural rot will, of course, be what finishes us off. Down the road of hedonism we go...

Alas, there’s nowhere else in the world for the rest of us to go, so it’s stand and fight or shrug and move on.


19 posted on 07/27/2012 7:13:38 PM PDT by CaspersGh0sts
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To: NoLibZone; cripplecreek; sergeantdave; Cringing Negativism Network
Buchanan hasn’t been right about anything his entire life. He’s properly attacked here on FR for his views. Why would any rational person believe him now?

I must agree.

In February he said that Israel was a bigger threat than Iran.

CLICK HERE

20 posted on 07/27/2012 7:13:47 PM PDT by moonshot925
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To: sergeantdave

Name one thing Buchanan has been wrong on.


21 posted on 07/27/2012 7:13:54 PM PDT by donna ("...gay couples raising kids. That's the American way..." -Mitt Romney)
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To: NoLibZone

In the long run, everything is dead.


22 posted on 07/27/2012 7:14:08 PM PDT by Lurker (Violence is rarely the answer. But when it is, it is the only answer.)
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To: sergeantdave

Argumentum ad hominem is a fallacy. What are the errors?
And I’ve been saying this since 1994, before I was even 18 and I am not Pat Buchanan.


23 posted on 07/27/2012 7:15:16 PM PDT by rmlew ("Mosques are our barracks, minarets our bayonets, domes our helmets, the believers our soldiers.")
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To: apillar

Plus Hispanics may become more Protestant, which could move them to the GOP.

George W. got 56% of their vote in 2004 and Obama only got 52% of their vote in 2008.


24 posted on 07/27/2012 7:15:55 PM PDT by ansel12 (Massachusetts Governors,,, where the GOP goes for it's "conservative" Presidential candidates.)
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To: sergeantdave
He's always been right on immigration and his views on trade policy and their results are obvious.
25 posted on 07/27/2012 7:15:55 PM PDT by Theoria (Rush Limbaugh: Ron Paul sounds like an Islamic terrorist)
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To: moonshot925

Moot point. This isn’t about foreign policy.


26 posted on 07/27/2012 7:16:34 PM PDT by rmlew ("Mosques are our barracks, minarets our bayonets, domes our helmets, the believers our soldiers.")
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To: NoLibZone
Race, age and ethnicity are at the heart of the problem.

You mean, ignorant young minorities who have no idea how America became great? :)

27 posted on 07/27/2012 7:21:45 PM PDT by Mr. Jeeves (CTRL-GALT-DELETE)
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To: rmlew
Moot point. This isn’t about foreign policy.

Exactly, being wrong on one issue isn't the same as being wrong on all issues. Hell, Cynthia McKinney was with Kurt Weldon on Able Danger.
28 posted on 07/27/2012 7:22:38 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: WeatherGuy

29 posted on 07/27/2012 7:23:40 PM PDT by who_would_fardels_bear
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To: moonshot925; NoLibZone; cripplecreek; sergeantdave; Cringing Negativism Network

It’s pretty clear that he said nothing shocking:

“During the Cold War, with due respect, the Soviet Union had thousands of weapons that could have destroyed us in an afternoon,” he cautioned. “And we could have done the same thing.”

“I was around during the Cuban missile crisis. I was genuinely terrified. But Iran doesn’t frighten me and I don’t think it should frighten the American people. They don’t have a bomb. They haven’t made a decision to build one. They didn’t have the means to deliver one, and the Israelis have 300 atomic bombs. I mean, who presents the existential threat to whom?”

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2012/02/22/buchanan-who-is-a-bigger-threat-iran-or-israel/#ixzz21sbw0I6v


30 posted on 07/27/2012 7:23:55 PM PDT by donna ("...gay couples raising kids. That's the American way..." -Mitt Romney)
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To: NoLibZone
The federal personal income tax was supposed to only affect the top 2% or 2% of wage earners.

Now it sucks the life's blood out of 53%!

That ought to tell anyone that it's a failed federal government program that should be abolished right along with Department of Education, National Endowment for the Arts and the Labor Department.

31 posted on 07/27/2012 7:25:14 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: donna

I’m not really concerned about his feelings on Israel and Iran. The simple fact is that the GOP is in real danger and we’re busy inviting democrats to come feed on the corpse.


32 posted on 07/27/2012 7:27:19 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: NoLibZone

When democrats are in power they do everything possible to pave the way for a larger democrat base year after year. They are just about monolithic in the pursuit of their agenda. You never hear talk of democrats “reaching across the aisle” to help republicans pass something unless it benefits democrats.

When republicans are in power they rarely do anything to protect and grow the republican base.

In fact - they always lose ground by turning on their own base and frequently “reaching across the aisle” to work with democrats on programs and policies that help democrats pander to their own base.

Republicans never seem to learn that they cannot out-pander democrats.

George Bush went against his own base to help Ted Kennedy pass the enormously expensive Medicare Prescription Plan and got no credit at all from the left for doing so. In fact - they turned on him and ridiculed him the minute he signed it into law.

So the democrats always manage to fortify and add to their base no matter who is in power and the republicans watch their base shrink, year after year.

With the massive legal immigration from Africa and the Mideast, and the outright lawbreaking Obama is doing to add illegals to the population, it is only a matter of time before the Black, Muslim and Hispanic vote grows enough to give democrats an unbeatable majority.


33 posted on 07/27/2012 7:27:39 PM PDT by Iron Munro ("Jiggle the Handle for Barry!")
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To: Lurker
In the long run, everything is dead.

Yeah, Brian Cox, on WONDERS OF THE UNIVERSE, did a cheery segment on its future history, " ... the era of stars is over, yet the universe has expended only one trillionth of its total lifetime ... "

34 posted on 07/27/2012 7:28:32 PM PDT by dr_lew
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To: NoLibZone

The GOPE is dead as far as the future is concerned.

The TEA party will over time reinvigorate the new GOP.


35 posted on 07/27/2012 7:29:04 PM PDT by editor-surveyor (Freepers: Not as smart as I'd hoped they were.)
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To: Lurker

However every generation is followed by another.

And another. And another. And another.

We need to take care of our kids also.

And their kids. And theirs...


36 posted on 07/27/2012 7:30:22 PM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (America doesn't need any new laws. America needs freedom!)
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To: NoLibZone
Sadly we spent all our time trying to occupy the GOP rather than build a new party.

Yes, the obvious solution to the issues in the article is convert the Republican Party into two smaller parties - that will show them Dems!

37 posted on 07/27/2012 7:31:30 PM PDT by Strategerist
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To: NoLibZone
Sadly we spent all our time trying to occupy the GOP rather than build a new party.

Happily, that's not true of us all.

America's Party

38 posted on 07/27/2012 7:33:18 PM PDT by EternalVigilance (The saving of America starts the day conservatives stop supporting what they say they hate.)
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To: donna

You’re spot on. Pat is right. There just isn’t much to conserve, is there? All those minorities will never opt for personal responsibility. And that’s what the GOP is all about. We’ve bred a horde of dependent slugs. They can only breathe with the help of the Democrats. We’re cooked. This nation has changed in a very fundamental way, and we’re not going back. From here on out, its downhill and nothing but mediocrity. Obama is symptomatic of that change, a man of the times for the times; a total fraud. All style (and very little of that), no substance. He’s nothing but a mouther of the most banal cliches. If such a nonentity as he can be elected president in the first place, we’re doomed. Get over it.


39 posted on 07/27/2012 7:38:33 PM PDT by donaldo
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To: moonshot925; NoLibZone; cripplecreek; sergeantdave; Cringing Negativism Network

There is a fundamental difference between the Soviet Union and Iran.

The Soviet build a very large nuclear arsenal, but their leadership understood that using it was suicide and would result in total annihilation.

Iran’s leadership comprises a group of extreme fanatical Muslims who believe that their messianic times have arrived.

Iran has made preparations for the coming of the Mahdi, the 12th Imam of Shi’ite lore, which has emphasized martyrdom since the 7th century.

It’s entirely possible that the Iranian leadership might decide that it is preferable to die as martyrs than share the world with the Great Satan, the United States.


40 posted on 07/27/2012 7:38:33 PM PDT by moonshot925
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To: NoLibZone

Tea Party grows.

The income tax is short-lived. Consumption tax is going to come.


41 posted on 07/27/2012 7:40:29 PM PDT by Principled (It's not enthusiasm for Romney, it's grim determination to remove Hussein)
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To: NoLibZone
Buchanan, you pot-banging creep.

You are the the Cindy Sheehan of the Republican Party.

You are the Tim Burton movie of the American Dream.

Ugh.

.

42 posted on 07/27/2012 7:47:56 PM PDT by Seaplaner (Never give in. Never give in. Never...except to convictions of honour and good sense. W. Churchill)
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To: donna

Buchanan is anti-semitic. Farrakhan praised him for some of the hateful things he said about Israel.


43 posted on 07/27/2012 7:54:32 PM PDT by Linda Frances (Woe to those who call evil good and good evil, who put darkness for light and light for darkness)
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To: Seaplaner
slight change, adding one word (underlined).

Buchanan, you miserable pot-banging creep.

You are the the Cindy Sheehan of the Republican Party.

You are the Tim Burton movie of the American Dream.

Ugh.

.

44 posted on 07/27/2012 7:55:22 PM PDT by Seaplaner (Never give in. Never give in. Never...except to convictions of honour and good sense. W. Churchill)
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To: apillar

It will eventually be like S Africa where whites are overwhelmingly for 1 party while the majority blacks are on the other.


45 posted on 07/27/2012 7:55:22 PM PDT by max americana (Make the world a better place by punching a liberal in the face)
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To: max americana
The only person to save theGOP was Ronald Reagan...and the first Bush flushed it all away...Sarah my have done it a second time but she was flushed away..maybe the Tea Party if it can take over the GOP and change the name...Looks like Bankruptcy to me...Rush said today the economy was growing at 9% in the great depression.. what is this??
46 posted on 07/27/2012 8:03:50 PM PDT by Hojczyk
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To: moonshot925

Buchanan:

In a 1990 column for the New York Post, Buchanan defended convicted Nazi war criminal Ivan Demjanjuk (whom he later compared to Jesus Christ) against charges from Holocaust survivors that he was guilty of murder by accusing the survivors of misremembering all of it: “This so-called ‘Holocaust Survivor Syndrome’ involves ‘group fantasies of martyrdom and heroics.’ Reportedly, half of the 20,000 survivor testimonies in Yad Vashem memorial in Jerusalem are considered ‘unreliable,’ not to be used in trials[…]The problem is: Diesel engines do not emit enough carbon monoxide to kill anybody.”
Buchanan actually said Hitler was an individual of “great courage.” That’s just one of the quotes that the Anti-Defamation League attributes to Buchanan in their compendium of offensive remarks from Buchanan over the years. In 1977, he qualified his labeling of Hitler as racist and anti-semitic by adding that “he was also an individual of great courage, a soldier’s soldier in the Great War, a leader steeped in the history of Europe, who possessed oratorical powers that could awe even those who despised him[…]His genius was an intuitive sense of the mushiness, the character flaws, the weakness masquerading as morality that was in the hearts of the statesmen who stood in his path.”


47 posted on 07/27/2012 8:04:10 PM PDT by Linda Frances (Woe to those who call evil good and good evil, who put darkness for light and light for darkness)
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To: NoLibZone

“Since 1928, only Dwight Eisenhower and George W. Bush have won the presidency while capturing both houses of Congress for the GOP.”

Since 1928, the Republicans have not won the Presidency without having a Nixon or a Bush somewhere at the top of the ticket.


48 posted on 07/27/2012 8:07:08 PM PDT by KrisKrinkle (Blessed be those who know the depth and breadth of their ignorance. Cursed be those who don't.)
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To: NoLibZone

You mean the GOP that might not even stand up and fight the contraceptive mandate and religious freedom??

Already is for anything conservative


49 posted on 07/27/2012 8:09:45 PM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: Linda Frances

Buchanan also thinks Pearl Harbor was our fault for screwing over the poor Japanese.


50 posted on 07/27/2012 8:10:25 PM PDT by Strategerist
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