Skip to comments.ROAD TO WHITE HOUSE WILL DECIDE SENATE
Posted on 07/29/2012 3:33:33 PM PDT by SMGFan
Democrat control of the U.S. Senate is in serious jeopardy this November. Of the 33 seats up for election this Fall, Democrats are defending 22. The GOP needs a net-gain of 4 seats to take control of the chamber (3 if Romney is elected, as the GOP VP would provide a tie-breaking vote.) Of the 8 seats considered "toss up" by RealClearPolitics, Democrats are defending six. Moreover, though, Democrats are defending 8 seats in Presidential battleground states, linking their fates to the Obama/Romney contest.
In recent years, contested Senate races have tended to "break" in favor of one party. In 2006, Democrats picked up 6 seats and didn't lose any. In 2008, Dems picked up 8 and again successfully defended every seat. Same too for the GOP in 2010, who picked up 6 seats without losing any they had held. If the election contest breaks discernibly for either Obama or Romney, the Senate races in the 8 battleground states will likely break towards the candidate's party, delivering the Senate to the party of the Presidential victor.
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A Romney win is absolutely required for a GOP Senate -—
Required to WIN the Senate -—
And Required to CONTROL ROMNEY after we take the Senate!
You’re absolutely right. If Romney wins, and the GOP takes the Senate, we FReepers and Tea Partyers will have to watch them like hawks, and be ready to march in the streets when they even blink in a leftward direction.
Romney will easily win the presidency. Many disaffected democrats will vote for him. Why wouldn’t they? He won’t need the conservative vote.
I will probably pull the lever for Mrs Romney to get a better first lady who isn't always telling me what to eat.
But, my money and time will go to electing the most Conservative Senators we can find...
There aren’t enough competitive races with viable candidates to get to 60 seats. 52 is more realistic.
November 6 is a start. 2014 has more pickups possible with those who arrived with Obama in 08
How can we win the Senate and lose the White House?
Kyle is retiring here in AZ and Jeff Flake is the likely replacement, which would be a wash, more or less. Indiana has a chance to move right, with Lugar out. Utah will likely return Orin Hatch.
My worry is we return too many establishment R's....we need to shake it up to be sure the T-P House initiatives aren't slowed in the Senate.
My best estimates:
AZ = Flake (RINO-Borders Squish)
CT = McMahon or Shays (RINO/Ultra-RINO)
FL = Mack (RINO-Called AZ Immigration Law like Nazi Germany)
HI = Lingle (Ultra-RINO)
IN = Mourdock (Tea Party)
ME = Likely loss from RINO to Independent (Liberal Dem)
MI = Hoekstra (lean Conservative)
MO = Steelman/Akin (Conservative)
NE = Fischer (Tea Party)
NJ = Kyrillos (RINO)
NM = Wilson (RINO)
ND = Berg (Conservative)
OH = Mandel (Tea Party)
PA = Smith (Conservative?)
TX = Cruz (Tea Party) (if Dewhurst, RINO)
VA = Allen (Conservative)
WV = Raese (Conservative?)
WI = Thompson (RINO)
If we get most of these, at best perhaps 5 or 6 would be a decided improvement, the rest would a slight to negligible improvement.
Sadly true, but if we max our possible gains this time we’ll have a shot at 60 in 2014, maybe even a shot at a truely conservative 60.
That is correct but means only one term because the base can’t stand him and the democrats will give their people someone to vote for next term. Very short sited and stupid....especially if a 3rd party starts catering to the Republican base with the old platform.
Just who will run the Senate ? Will He be like the cry baby in the House ? It really does make a difference. The House under Republicans for the last year and a half is still spending beyond their means. This was to stop. The order by the electorate was clear.
I think the GOP has a better chance at 60 in 2014, but if Zero remains as President (the sixth-year backlash would be a fiasco for the Dems). However, if it’s Willard, that is highly unlikely (and, in fact, the GOP could probably lose both the House and Senate that year). Even if the GOP hits 60 seats, there will still remain a sizeable RINO contingent and any strong movement towards enacting a Conservative agenda will emboldened those big government leftists in the GOP to try to stop it. They screw Conservatives regardless if the GOP is in the minority or majority.
Although a real conservative President could probably get us 7+% growth, just aborting ObamaCare, renewing Bush tax cuts and merely RINO levels of holding down government would probably give us 3-4% growth after 6 years of Bush surrendering to the Rats and 4 years of formal Rat rule. ‘Average’ will seem good by recent comparison. The public will notice that difference and should, like 2002 (pre-Bush domestic surrender) reward the incumbent with rare off year gains. Those here will know the opportunity cost of the missed megagrowth from missed conservative leadership, and by 2016 there may not be enough gains to sustain the Senate class of 2010. The more senate seats we pick up, the more of conservative plans starting in the House (where they can be possible) we’ll be able to get through the Senate and bully Romney into signing. I know you have no faith in Romney growing coat tails, but I have hope in Obama growing cement overshoes for his side. May Rush’s “I hope he fails” come true, big time!
I have been following RCP and think the number 52 is “spot on’. Maybe Romney can pull some of them over the line as they are in mostly swing states. I also hope the strong ones pull Romney with them. It works both ways.
I doubt anyone can survive if Obama wins but that is less and less likely. He and his team are falling apart. I don’t see Obama helping his own canidates. He is only for himself. They choose Warren to give the keynote at the convention. Looks like that will make it a solid 52 with Brown.
Romney is no Ronald Reagan but he will win this election with about the same spread as between Obama and McCain in ‘08. It’s going to be a near landslide. States that have not gone GOP since the Gipper will fall to Romney this year. Not only will Romney win by between 7 and 8 points, he is going to have MASSIVE coattails. Why? Conservatives, independents, and Reagan Democrats are going to turn out in droves to get President Zero OUT of the White House. While they are in the booth they are going to vote for GOP congressional candidates. The conservative and GOP-oriented electorate is going to turn out as if the fate of the REPUBLIC depended on their vote. And it does....Romney is no conservative but Obama is a threat to everything patriotic Americans hold dear.
So, down the ballot voting will be similar to ‘10? I hope so. Or else this election will be recalled as having been our last chance.
100 days to go. Let us repeat 1980 Democrat Senate wipeout.
Reagan’s not running this time...
I don’t believe it will quite the rout downballot that 2010 was, but what has changed since 2010? Not that much except we know we are not going to get rid of ObamaCare—now that the Supreme court has spoken—unless we get rid of Obama. One thing that is different is that the economy appears to be even weaker than it was in 2010. That isn’t going to help Obama or Democrats running for Congress. I believe we are going to be celebrating BIG on November 6. Every one of us has to make sure our conservative friends and family VOTE. Tell your liberal friends the election will be held on November 7 this year.