Skip to comments.GOP Edge in Swing States
Posted on 07/31/2012 6:58:54 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
The world of political punditry seems convinced that the 2012 presidential election will be won in ten swing states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. Two other states, Indiana (lean Republican) and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (lean Democrat) could probably go either way in a close election.
If the election is a landslide, as many conservatives, including me, believe, then these thirteen swing states will not matter. Obama will likely get stuck with a group of northeastern states and a smattering of others. If the election is close, however, those dozen states will likely decide the election.
Almost wholly overlooked in the election is an advantage which Mitt Romney will have in those thirteen states which could well be decisive: heavyweight political muscle in the state governments. This is a consequence of the sweeping nature of the 2010 Republican landslide. In those thirteen states, Republicans have a governor in Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, Indiana, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. North Carolina and Missouri have gubernatorial elections this year, or Republicans might have had ten of the twelve governors instead of eight. These governors can be surrogate campaigners who know their states' voters and can focus on constituencies which can be persuaded.
The enviable record of Republican governors on unemployment can be hammered as well, and the grand theme of governance, as I have written about before, can be used against Obama -- particularly since his Republican opponent has been a governor and since Obama himself seems so incapable of governing.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Reagan's electoral votes victory 1980
(red USED TO BE commie red for democraps- but in this image it is republican-won states
This election is that important.
... and this is the Democrat advantage in key states ...
If Ohio is lost, that can be laid directly at the feet of Ohio president of the Ohio Senate, Tom Niehaus. It was Niehaus who marshaled together Senate Bill 5 that so over-reached, and then hung that monstrosity around the neck of newley elected Governor John Kasich.
It was terrible politics, and it was terrible for the reasons spelled out by Scott Walker of Wisconsin who said that teachers and police weren’t the problem, but were merely symptoms of a problem.
Niehaus’ stupid bill went so far into the weeds as to spell out criteria for evaluating teachers, clearly a local issue for school districts.
Kasich, with jobs rebounding, should be strongly approved in Ohio, but political liar and incompetent, Tom Niehaus, ruined any honeymoon Kasich might have had with the voters.
If Ohio decides the election, and Ohio goes to Obama, then the national election can be laid at the feet of southern Ohio’s own ignoramus, Thomas Niehaus.
And, if he wins Minnesota, he will probably win Illinois, New York, California, Massachusetts and Vermont as well. They all tack further left than Minnesota.
A lot has changed since 1980, but a lot has also remained the same.
Witha significant number of cast votes being counted by a Soros owned Sapnish company, expect any close election to be won by the demonspawnrats. The cheat factor has been solidified, and with the Roberts court now in place, there will never be another missed chance such as in Bush v Gore.
I prefer Reagan’s 1984 Map. Minnesota (barely) and DC.
Georgia should be blue on your map. Carter won his own state against Reagan.
They seem all home-schooled.
I’m with you.
Demographics have shifted a lot since the 80s. Thanks to the flood of illegals, states like CA will never flip to the GOP.
I think that the best landslide that can be pulled off is something like 1988.
The days of GOP landslides are over. Unchecked immigration and government largesse have altered the demographics irreparably. Check the closeness of the current presidential polls: in an economic climate where the objective evidence demands that the current idiot in the Oval Office should be a no-brainer 1-term President we’re deadlocked!
There will come a time within the next 25 years when the GOP will have no chance to win an election. Even states like Texas will become bluer and “in play” for the Democrats. The country is at a point of no return. The Democrats have won the demographics battle (and they know it), and conservative-minded Americans will have 2 choices: leave the country or secession. Romney winning this election will only slow, not reverse, this inevitable fate.
They would not win the demographics battle IF the republicans and for that matter Americans, recognize demographics are being changed deliberately to seize control of the country, and therefore truly reverse the illegal immigration flow without falling for the outrageous “racism” charge.
I think a vast majority would still support that while there is still time to act. Will it happen? Probably not and that’s very troubling.
Don’t fall into the trap of focusing on illegal immigration. Legal immigration has been much more damaging demographically speaking, and it continues to be. We admit over one million legal immigrants per year, and the vast majority are natural Democrats.
While I’m sure lots of illegals cast illegal votes, they are dwarfed by the votes cast by naturalized legal immigrants. Now of course, if illegals are given a path to citizenship, then the problem will get much worse much quicker as former illegals legally bring in their extended family. But again, this would be due to our absurd legal immigration policy.
We could end all illegal immigration, and remove all illegal aliens, and the GOP would still face demographic doom because of mass legal immigration. Legal immigration has been and continues to be the much bigger demographic threat to the conservative movement and the GOP.
Perhaps the worst thing to come out of the GOP’s admirable stand against amnesty under Bush and Obama (well, they are allowing Obama’s executive amnesties) is that it has created this narrative parroted by almost all in the party that says ‘illegal immigration bad, legal immigration good’. Yet no one ever stops to ask how much legal immigration is good? Well, for the GOP (and the country’s well being) the answer is...a lot less!
Legal immigration needs to be drastically reduced. Family reunification needs to be limited to spouses (traditional definition) and minor children of citizens and permanent legal residents. The absurd Diversity Visa needs to be eliminated. Refugee settlement should be reduced and much more strict. An overall cap on legal immigration needs to be implemented.
If all that were done, along with not granting illegals a path to citizenship and ending birthright citizenship, then the GOP would having a fighting chance going forward.
But like you said, there is very little hope of this happening. Party leaders are either true believers in unending mass immigration despite all the evidence of how it favors the Democrats (like Bush or Dick Armey) or they know the truth but are afraid of being called names. Or maybe they just haven’t thought it through.
Whatever the case, the outlook for true, conservative immigration reform is bleak.
I will add the need to reform legal immigration to my list. Every country has the right and duty to control immigration.
Until Barack Obama, never had one man done so much harm to our country.
With all of our chronic unemployment, if we take the whole Congress and the White House, we can reform immigration with common sense and a big time out for low skilled immigrants.
Correct and Ohio’s SB5 was such a grand error that it seems almost impossible to have happened. You usually don’t get to be Pres. of the Senate as a political neophyte.
Correct and coalitions can change. It wouldn’t be beyond belief to see a coalition of blacks join the GOP to reform legal immigration toward job creators as opposed to job takers.