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Gallup: Obama Approval Below Fifty In All Major Swing States
Big Government ^ | August 1, 2012 | John Nolte

Posted on 08/01/2012 8:57:05 AM PDT by Zakeet

Today, Gallup released new job approvals polls taken in all fifty states with the headline: "Thirteen States and D.C. Give Obama Majority Approval."

You can also read that as "Obama Below Majority Approval In 37 States".

The problem for Obama is that his approval numbers are only above 50% in states we already know he's going to win in November. But in swing states he must take in order to win the opportunity to finish the job of destroying our country, the President is well below 50.

Iowa, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania -- 46%.

Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina -- 45%

Ohio -- 44%.

Colorado, New Hampshire -- 43%.

Gallup explains how dire these numbers are for Obama:

The 50% approval mark is significant because post-World War II incumbent presidents who have been above 50% job approval on Election Day were easily re-elected. Presidents with approval ratings below 50% have more uncertain re-election prospects. Historically, two presidents below 50% in their final approval rating before the election -- George W. Bush and Harry Truman -- won, and three, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush, lost.

That's a somewhat simplistic way to look at it.

[Snip]

In better news, this latest round of Gallup polls contradict the latest round of juiced media-generated polls…

The CBS/NYT model has Democrats +9 in Florida when in 2008 they were only a +3 and an even split in the 2010 midterms. Ohio’s sample has exactly the split in 2008 (D+8), which is nine points better than Democrats did in the midterms. Pennsylvania’s numbers (D+6) come closest to a rational predictive model, somewhere between 2008′s D+7 and 2010′s D+3, but still looking mighty optimistic for Democratic turnout.

…so it's pretty safe to say that Obama is the one in trouble, not Romney.

(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012election; 2012polls; approval; bhojobapproval; gallup; polls

You Right Wing Nuts shouldn't believe a word of this article!

1 posted on 08/01/2012 8:57:09 AM PDT by Zakeet
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To: Zakeet

He better hope they change........


2 posted on 08/01/2012 8:59:32 AM PDT by Red Badger (Think logically. Act normally.................)
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To: Zakeet

43-46 in all swing states. Those are not just ‘below’ 50%. They are terrible numbers. If these are accurate, there is just little chance he can be reelected. Seeing Ohio at 44% is promising. I figured he might creep up there, as some parts of Ohio are susceptible tot he class warfare rhetoric.


3 posted on 08/01/2012 9:03:53 AM PDT by ilgipper ( November cannot come soon enough)
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To: Red Badger
But, but I thought he was over 50% via:

CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac swing-state polls show Obama hitting 50%!

I've noticed of late that when an outlier poll hits the net some other polls come out rebuking their outlier poll! I guess the polling institution don't want to go down ala CNN!

4 posted on 08/01/2012 9:09:26 AM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: Zakeet

There is no way he can win..legitimately.


5 posted on 08/01/2012 9:19:13 AM PDT by Leep
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To: Zakeet
"You Right Wing Nuts shouldn't believe a word of this article!"

Certainly the Freetards will be along shortly to pour out some whine...

6 posted on 08/01/2012 9:19:13 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (=)
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To: Zakeet
Hopefully this also portends a massive shift in congress as well.

A conservative congress to keep Willard on the straight & narrow.

7 posted on 08/01/2012 9:20:38 AM PDT by skeeter
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To: Zakeet

Obama cannot and will not get over 42-43% of the popular vote in Novemeber, and that is if he runs a flawless campaign. Reality is his campaign is a train wreck. I truly believe if he hits 40% on Election night he’s incredibly lucky.


8 posted on 08/01/2012 9:24:44 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: HamiltonJay
I truly believe if he hits 40% on Election night he’s incredibly lucky.

20 or 30 years ago I definitely would have agreed with you.

Unfortunately, given today's demographics of the country, not only will he go well above 40%, he is still a definite favorite to win in November.

9 posted on 08/01/2012 9:41:24 AM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: Red Badger

For a good laugh, go to Theulstermanreport.com today.


10 posted on 08/01/2012 9:44:54 AM PDT by kevslisababy
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To: Zakeet
Obama is going to win. Romney is a lame duck candidate and he will fail to motivate the base.
11 posted on 08/01/2012 9:47:16 AM PDT by Sam Gamgee (May God have mercy upon my enemies, because I won't. - Patton)
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To: comebacknewt

Sorry, but not buying the demographic argument, what you do have today, that the electoral college likely won’t reflect how bad of a routing its going to be. His EC vote will be closer than previous losses of such magnetude, but he can’t win.

when 1 in 5 of your parties registered voters are saying flat out, they intend to vote for the other guy when polled, you can’t win, demographics or not. 20% of democratic voters is about 6% of the vote, a 6 percent vote swing in and of itself, even if the swing voters break even is a 56/44 los for Obama. Now add into that, that he’s down in every single demographic from his 2008 highs.. Swing voters are likely to brea 3-2 if not 2-1 for Romney, and you are looking at a route we haven’t seen in a long time.

As I said, I think on election day, Obama cannot get above low 40s, and in reality, will be lucky to see 40%


12 posted on 08/01/2012 9:58:56 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: ilgipper

“there is just little chance he can be reelected”!
Yes but would you bet your Florida farm the election at least here won’t be stolen?
How about Philadelphia? Chicago?
This magic negro is dirty and everyone knows it.


13 posted on 08/01/2012 9:58:56 AM PDT by Joe Boucher ((FUBO) Hey Mitt, F-you too pal)
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To: Sam Gamgee
Obama is going to win. Romney is a lame duck candidate and he will fail to motivate the base.

Romney will win even without motivating the base because even the dems hate Obama and we have given democrats a democrat vote for.

The problem is the second term...with out your base and dems giving their people someone they can vote for Romney is a one term waste of time that can heap even more damage on the courts.

14 posted on 08/01/2012 10:05:36 AM PDT by Lady Heron
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To: kevslisababy

For a good laugh, go to Theulstermanreport.com today.
+++++++++
The Insider!!! I would love to believe his stuff. But, I don’t.

OTOH, it’s still fun to read and I recommend it for any fun loving Freeper.

Now, was The Insider talking about Romney by 55 to 45 in PA or MI or ...?


15 posted on 08/01/2012 10:21:40 AM PDT by InterceptPoint (.)
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To: HamiltonJay

Everyone is also forgetting that Independents are not going to sit home and not vote.

Indy’s will vote for Romney, while a lot of conservatives stay home.

Obama does not have the Indy support he did in 2008.

And without Indy’s, there’s no way noBama would have won in 2008, so he sure as hell can’t win this November.

Pay no mind to juiced MSM polls, intrade, etc. That data will change in time, to Romney’s favor, prior to the election.

DISCLAIMER: I’m too conservative to be a fan of Romney; I’m merely saying that he’s going to beat O.


16 posted on 08/01/2012 10:43:58 AM PDT by library user
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To: library user

The conservative “protest” vote is an aboration, just like it is every damned election.. So that’s irrellevant statistically. Sure some folks will stay home or protest, but it won’t matter.

Romney is going to win this and win big, fight like its close, but the idea Obama is winning this thing, let alone winning it big is laughable on its face.

As I already stated independents will break for Romney 3-2 to 2-1, and 1 in 5 registered dems are already admitting they intend to vote for Romney, the idea this is a close election is laughable.

Fight like its a 50-50 split, but don’t buy into the crap.

Just like that poll today saying Obama is up 11 in PA... that’s absolute nonsense.. If Obama wins PA it will be by a few percentage points at best, and frankly I honestly think Obama is going to lose PA and MI. MN and IL are the only 2 rust belt states I think Obama has any chance of holding this election.


17 posted on 08/01/2012 10:55:00 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: StAnDeliver
Certainly the Freetards will be along shortly to pour out some whine...

The "Freetards"? You mean like Jim Robinson?

18 posted on 08/01/2012 11:03:15 AM PDT by COBOL2Java (FUMR)
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To: HamiltonJay

What’s your source for the statement that 1 in 5 registered Dem voters are intending to vote for Romney?


19 posted on 08/01/2012 11:17:05 AM PDT by TomEwall
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To: TomEwall

There have been more than 1 poll so far taken where the internals have shown this.. have to look at the details, not the conclusive numbers.

Also, polling JUST in the swing states (IE only polled voters in swing states) showed Romney up 10.

Don’t believe the nonsense you are being fed guys... Obama, and democrats in general are facing an electorial DISASTER. 2010 was the tip of the iceburg.


20 posted on 08/01/2012 11:24:23 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: HamiltonJay

I think there are good signs. With the Job Approval rate at around 46/47%, it makes it impossible that Obama is doing nearly as well as the swing state polls which have him ahead by 5 to 8 points, or more, suggest. At best, he could be even.

But that 1 in 5 registered Democrats would vote for Romney seems very unlikely. They’d be much more likely to just not vote. So you could trim some expected votes from Obama due to lack of enthusiasm, but you wouldn’t want to double count these.

If Obama’s job approval numbers stay where they are, at around 46/47%, I think the election will be close. Compare to Bush in 2004. His Job Approval was 49.5, and he won the election by a little over 3 pct. points.


21 posted on 08/01/2012 11:41:11 AM PDT by TomEwall
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To: TomEwall

Obama has a peak of 42-43% of the popular vote IMHO, he has no chance of getting higher than that.. and he’ll only get that if he runs a FLAWLESS campaign, and his campaign so far is a joke.

I really believe he’ll be lucky to see 40% of election day.

T Minus 3 months and we will know.


22 posted on 08/01/2012 11:44:30 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: Leep
There is no way he can win..legitimately.

There is one way.

If enough "principled conservatives" refuse to vote for the GOP nominee, 0baMao the Marxist will win.

23 posted on 08/01/2012 12:10:23 PM PDT by newgeezer (It is [the people's] right and duty to be at all times armed. --Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Clintonfatigued; LS

Despite Rasmussen showing Obama up 50-45 in Nevada this is quite dramatic. These are Obama’s approval ratings:

Iowa, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania — 46%.

Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina — 45%

Ohio — 44%.

Colorado, New Hampshire — 43%.


24 posted on 08/01/2012 2:07:22 PM PDT by Norman Bates
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To: Norman Bates

Just doesn’t add up. With such low approval #s, it doesn’t matter even if the didn’t like Romney-—the human inclination os to get rid of someone you don’t like.


25 posted on 08/01/2012 2:36:41 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: comebacknewt

The reality is that Romney is going to win, any base that would be for Obama will be so “depressed” that their turnout will be much, much lower. Trust me.


26 posted on 08/01/2012 3:31:50 PM PDT by Biggirl ("Jesus talked to us as individuals"-Jim Vicevich/Thanks JimV!)
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To: HamiltonJay

This election belongs to Romney.


27 posted on 08/01/2012 3:33:37 PM PDT by Biggirl ("Jesus talked to us as individuals"-Jim Vicevich/Thanks JimV!)
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To: HamiltonJay

It’s not so much that, but the MASSIVE vote fraud that will occur in six or seven counties that will decide this election.

I keep reminding people that the Dems registered 40,000 more than the GOP in Nevada this year.

Think about it.


28 posted on 08/01/2012 4:58:01 PM PDT by sf4dubya (I rebelled against my parents by becoming a conservative)
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To: HamiltonJay

“Sure some folks will stay home or protest, but it won’t matter.”

I believe we can overcome the dem fraud and the protest voters. But the thing that has me concerned is that our votes are being tallied in Spain - by obama’s choosing - and apparently soros is involved.


29 posted on 08/01/2012 5:30:38 PM PDT by Heart of Georgia (Boston's mayor is anti-Christian and anti-free speech.)
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To: skeeter

In 2010, the GOP won 60 some House seats back from Dems. Less than a dozen House Dems hold seats now in districts that lean GOP.

Redistricting was pretty much a wash overall and at this point, most analysts don’t think the House will swing more than 6 seats or so either way. The GOP will keep the House but not make major gains.

The GOP needs a net gain of four seats to take the Senate. They are in danger of losing ME and MA, and if they do, they’ll need to take six away from the Dems to win the Senate. Four of those six are pretty much in the bag. There are still primaries in Aug., so it’s not clear who the GOP candidates will be and how they’ll stack up against the Dem candidate. That will shape up for the end of the month.


30 posted on 08/01/2012 6:48:48 PM PDT by randita (Either the politicians fix our fiscal insanity, or the markets will.)
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To: Zakeet
Good evening.

The choice this November is between a liberal and a marxist. If the country chooses a liberal we may have another 10 years. If the country chooses a marxist we will have CWII by January.

I truly don't know which is better. In 10 years I will be too old too hump 81mm mortar cases. Now, I can hump 81mm mortar cases.

I hate decisions with no up side.

5.56mm

31 posted on 08/01/2012 6:59:34 PM PDT by M Kehoe
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To: Zakeet

The polls to watch are the ones we don’t see- the ones Obama is doing and which lead him to ct like he is going to lose. He is acting like a loser, contrary to 2008. People need to watch the pathetic video he did showing people how to send him money.He doesn’t seem Presidential in the least.


32 posted on 08/01/2012 8:29:16 PM PDT by PghBaldy (Obama 07/22/12: "we all reflect on how we can do something about some of the senseless violence...")
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To: skeeter
A conservative congress to keep Willard on the straight & narrow.

I hope you don't actually believe that a Republican dominated Congress will push back against a wayward (read: liberal) Republican president. It works the other way around, friend. He'll be the leader of their party, and they will give him what he wants.

See: GW Bush + Republican Congress - 2000 to 2006.

33 posted on 08/01/2012 10:09:42 PM PDT by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: M Kehoe
The choice this November is between a liberal and a marxist. If the country chooses a liberal we may have another 10 years. If the country chooses a marxist we will have CWII by January.

I agree with your scenario, should the Marxist win re-election, but I'm not as optimistic about our prospects, if the liberal is elected. Simply managing the decline set in place by the Obama regime won't get us through the liberal's one (and only) term in office.

We might see CWII before the 2016 campaign begins.

34 posted on 08/01/2012 10:22:40 PM PDT by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: Zakeet
It is time to unemploy him, retire him, leave our inglorious leader in the ditch, and to move on!


35 posted on 08/04/2012 2:29:17 PM PDT by Grampa Dave (ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION IS DESTROYING AMERICA-LOOK AT WHAT IT DID TO THE WHITE HOUSE!)
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To: Grampa Dave
It's doubtful that obama will carry any of the states that are close to 50% as well, Dave. I doubt that the pollsters from any polling group are interviewing any registered Republicans or conservatives so even the 'swings' matters little.

Hawaii will always be in his column....since they're all dems or unemployed or worse.....like dead.
36 posted on 08/04/2012 2:52:10 PM PDT by BIGLOOK (Hold.....hold......hold.......)
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To: Zakeet

He’s going to wipe out ALL COLLEGE DEBT!! Then he’ll get 85% of the vote!!


37 posted on 08/05/2012 5:32:20 AM PDT by Ann Archy ( ABORTION...the HUMAN Sacrifice to the god of Convenience.)
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To: HamiltonJay

oh PLEASE.....50% of the people pay NO FEDERAL INCOME TAXES and a TON of them get MONEY from us!!


38 posted on 08/05/2012 5:34:05 AM PDT by Ann Archy ( ABORTION...the HUMAN Sacrifice to the god of Convenience.)
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To: HamiltonJay
Obama cannot and will not get over 42-43% of the popular vote in Novemeber, and that is if he runs a flawless campaign. Reality is his campaign is a train wreck. I truly believe if he hits 40% on Election night he’s incredibly lucky.

All he has to do is to convince those who voted for him before that all their free crap (cell phones, internet, electrical assistance, health care, no taxes, many thousands per year in EIC--should be called "unearned income credit"--billions in bail-outs, millions in loans for failing business, etc) will be coming to an end if they don't vote for him and the Democrats. He's making this election about THEM and their fears. People are always more motivated to action that they perceive will benefit themselves or avoid pain than to action that will benefit someone else. Barry is counting on the votes of the cynics and self-interested and is putting everything into fanning their hatred of those he claims are threatening their free ride.
39 posted on 08/05/2012 6:17:17 AM PDT by aruanan
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To: Heart of Georgia
But the thing that has me concerned is that our votes are being tallied in Spain - by obama’s choosing - and apparently soros is involved.

"Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." ― Joseph Stalin


40 posted on 08/05/2012 6:31:42 AM PDT by Gritty (It's either Obama and the Democrats or America. You can't have both. - Rush Limbaugh)
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To: BIGLOOK

“It’s doubtful that obama will carry any of the states that are close to 50% as well, Dave. I doubt that the pollsters from any polling group are interviewing any registered Republicans or conservatives so even the ‘swings’ matters little.”

I used to be telephone polled, often, a little over a decade ago. These calls came after I retired and was home during normal working hours. So their audience was mainly the soccer mom having a wine break between driving the kids around, the unemployed, the illegals and those on some fake disability.

Caller ID eliminates even answering the phone. We average about 10 calls a week from so called survey/polling outfits. We see who is calling and don’t answer.

Calls after working hours often are from push polls, “like will you not vote for Romney because he hates dogs or belongs to the Mormon cult?”


41 posted on 08/05/2012 7:04:03 AM PDT by Grampa Dave (ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION IS DESTROYING AMERICA-LOOK AT WHAT IT DID TO THE WHITE HOUSE!)
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To: Gritty

I hope we’ve got people at the watch in Spain, but I’m not depending on it.

I do believe the polls will eventually come in line and the dems won’t be able to cite polls to cover their fraud.

Lots of maybes at play in my thoughts, but if we turn out big, maybe they can’t get away with it.

And if we can hold them back for a few more years, maybe the USA we know and love can make a comeback.


42 posted on 08/06/2012 9:49:10 AM PDT by Heart of Georgia (Boston's mayor is anti-Christian and anti-free speech.)
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