Skip to comments.Gallup: Obama Approval Below Fifty In All Major Swing States
Posted on 08/01/2012 8:57:05 AM PDT by Zakeet
Today, Gallup released new job approvals polls taken in all fifty states with the headline: "Thirteen States and D.C. Give Obama Majority Approval."
You can also read that as "Obama Below Majority Approval In 37 States".
The problem for Obama is that his approval numbers are only above 50% in states we already know he's going to win in November. But in swing states he must take in order to win the opportunity to finish the job of destroying our country, the President is well below 50.
Iowa, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania -- 46%.
Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina -- 45%
Ohio -- 44%.
Colorado, New Hampshire -- 43%.
Gallup explains how dire these numbers are for Obama:
The 50% approval mark is significant because post-World War II incumbent presidents who have been above 50% job approval on Election Day were easily re-elected. Presidents with approval ratings below 50% have more uncertain re-election prospects. Historically, two presidents below 50% in their final approval rating before the election -- George W. Bush and Harry Truman -- won, and three, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush, lost.
That's a somewhat simplistic way to look at it.
In better news, this latest round of Gallup polls contradict the latest round of juiced media-generated polls
The CBS/NYT model has Democrats +9 in Florida when in 2008 they were only a +3 and an even split in the 2010 midterms. Ohios sample has exactly the split in 2008 (D+8), which is nine points better than Democrats did in the midterms. Pennsylvanias numbers (D+6) come closest to a rational predictive model, somewhere between 2008′s D+7 and 2010′s D+3, but still looking mighty optimistic for Democratic turnout.
so it's pretty safe to say that Obama is the one in trouble, not Romney.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
You Right Wing Nuts shouldn't believe a word of this article!
He better hope they change........
43-46 in all swing states. Those are not just ‘below’ 50%. They are terrible numbers. If these are accurate, there is just little chance he can be reelected. Seeing Ohio at 44% is promising. I figured he might creep up there, as some parts of Ohio are susceptible tot he class warfare rhetoric.
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac swing-state polls show Obama hitting 50%!
I've noticed of late that when an outlier poll hits the net some other polls come out rebuking their outlier poll! I guess the polling institution don't want to go down ala CNN!
There is no way he can win..legitimately.
Certainly the Freetards will be along shortly to pour out some whine...
A conservative congress to keep Willard on the straight & narrow.
Obama cannot and will not get over 42-43% of the popular vote in Novemeber, and that is if he runs a flawless campaign. Reality is his campaign is a train wreck. I truly believe if he hits 40% on Election night he’s incredibly lucky.
20 or 30 years ago I definitely would have agreed with you.
Unfortunately, given today's demographics of the country, not only will he go well above 40%, he is still a definite favorite to win in November.
For a good laugh, go to Theulstermanreport.com today.
Sorry, but not buying the demographic argument, what you do have today, that the electoral college likely won’t reflect how bad of a routing its going to be. His EC vote will be closer than previous losses of such magnetude, but he can’t win.
when 1 in 5 of your parties registered voters are saying flat out, they intend to vote for the other guy when polled, you can’t win, demographics or not. 20% of democratic voters is about 6% of the vote, a 6 percent vote swing in and of itself, even if the swing voters break even is a 56/44 los for Obama. Now add into that, that he’s down in every single demographic from his 2008 highs.. Swing voters are likely to brea 3-2 if not 2-1 for Romney, and you are looking at a route we haven’t seen in a long time.
As I said, I think on election day, Obama cannot get above low 40s, and in reality, will be lucky to see 40%
“there is just little chance he can be reelected”!
Yes but would you bet your Florida farm the election at least here won’t be stolen?
How about Philadelphia? Chicago?
This magic negro is dirty and everyone knows it.
Romney will win even without motivating the base because even the dems hate Obama and we have given democrats a democrat vote for.
The problem is the second term...with out your base and dems giving their people someone they can vote for Romney is a one term waste of time that can heap even more damage on the courts.
For a good laugh, go to Theulstermanreport.com today.
The Insider!!! I would love to believe his stuff. But, I don’t.
OTOH, it’s still fun to read and I recommend it for any fun loving Freeper.
Now, was The Insider talking about Romney by 55 to 45 in PA or MI or ...?
Everyone is also forgetting that Independents are not going to sit home and not vote.
Indy’s will vote for Romney, while a lot of conservatives stay home.
Obama does not have the Indy support he did in 2008.
And without Indy’s, there’s no way noBama would have won in 2008, so he sure as hell can’t win this November.
Pay no mind to juiced MSM polls, intrade, etc. That data will change in time, to Romney’s favor, prior to the election.
DISCLAIMER: I’m too conservative to be a fan of Romney; I’m merely saying that he’s going to beat O.
The conservative “protest” vote is an aboration, just like it is every damned election.. So that’s irrellevant statistically. Sure some folks will stay home or protest, but it won’t matter.
Romney is going to win this and win big, fight like its close, but the idea Obama is winning this thing, let alone winning it big is laughable on its face.
As I already stated independents will break for Romney 3-2 to 2-1, and 1 in 5 registered dems are already admitting they intend to vote for Romney, the idea this is a close election is laughable.
Fight like its a 50-50 split, but don’t buy into the crap.
Just like that poll today saying Obama is up 11 in PA... that’s absolute nonsense.. If Obama wins PA it will be by a few percentage points at best, and frankly I honestly think Obama is going to lose PA and MI. MN and IL are the only 2 rust belt states I think Obama has any chance of holding this election.
The "Freetards"? You mean like Jim Robinson?
What’s your source for the statement that 1 in 5 registered Dem voters are intending to vote for Romney?
There have been more than 1 poll so far taken where the internals have shown this.. have to look at the details, not the conclusive numbers.
Also, polling JUST in the swing states (IE only polled voters in swing states) showed Romney up 10.
Don’t believe the nonsense you are being fed guys... Obama, and democrats in general are facing an electorial DISASTER. 2010 was the tip of the iceburg.
I think there are good signs. With the Job Approval rate at around 46/47%, it makes it impossible that Obama is doing nearly as well as the swing state polls which have him ahead by 5 to 8 points, or more, suggest. At best, he could be even.
But that 1 in 5 registered Democrats would vote for Romney seems very unlikely. They’d be much more likely to just not vote. So you could trim some expected votes from Obama due to lack of enthusiasm, but you wouldn’t want to double count these.
If Obama’s job approval numbers stay where they are, at around 46/47%, I think the election will be close. Compare to Bush in 2004. His Job Approval was 49.5, and he won the election by a little over 3 pct. points.
Obama has a peak of 42-43% of the popular vote IMHO, he has no chance of getting higher than that.. and he’ll only get that if he runs a FLAWLESS campaign, and his campaign so far is a joke.
I really believe he’ll be lucky to see 40% of election day.
T Minus 3 months and we will know.
There is one way.
If enough "principled conservatives" refuse to vote for the GOP nominee, 0baMao the Marxist will win.
Despite Rasmussen showing Obama up 50-45 in Nevada this is quite dramatic. These are Obama’s approval ratings:
Iowa, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania — 46%.
Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina — 45%
Ohio — 44%.
Colorado, New Hampshire — 43%.
Just doesn’t add up. With such low approval #s, it doesn’t matter even if the didn’t like Romney-—the human inclination os to get rid of someone you don’t like.
The reality is that Romney is going to win, any base that would be for Obama will be so “depressed” that their turnout will be much, much lower. Trust me.
This election belongs to Romney.
It’s not so much that, but the MASSIVE vote fraud that will occur in six or seven counties that will decide this election.
I keep reminding people that the Dems registered 40,000 more than the GOP in Nevada this year.
Think about it.
“Sure some folks will stay home or protest, but it wont matter.”
I believe we can overcome the dem fraud and the protest voters. But the thing that has me concerned is that our votes are being tallied in Spain - by obama’s choosing - and apparently soros is involved.
In 2010, the GOP won 60 some House seats back from Dems. Less than a dozen House Dems hold seats now in districts that lean GOP.
Redistricting was pretty much a wash overall and at this point, most analysts don’t think the House will swing more than 6 seats or so either way. The GOP will keep the House but not make major gains.
The GOP needs a net gain of four seats to take the Senate. They are in danger of losing ME and MA, and if they do, they’ll need to take six away from the Dems to win the Senate. Four of those six are pretty much in the bag. There are still primaries in Aug., so it’s not clear who the GOP candidates will be and how they’ll stack up against the Dem candidate. That will shape up for the end of the month.
The choice this November is between a liberal and a marxist. If the country chooses a liberal we may have another 10 years. If the country chooses a marxist we will have CWII by January.
I truly don't know which is better. In 10 years I will be too old too hump 81mm mortar cases. Now, I can hump 81mm mortar cases.
I hate decisions with no up side.
The polls to watch are the ones we don’t see- the ones Obama is doing and which lead him to ct like he is going to lose. He is acting like a loser, contrary to 2008. People need to watch the pathetic video he did showing people how to send him money.He doesn’t seem Presidential in the least.
I hope you don't actually believe that a Republican dominated Congress will push back against a wayward (read: liberal) Republican president. It works the other way around, friend. He'll be the leader of their party, and they will give him what he wants.
See: GW Bush + Republican Congress - 2000 to 2006.
I agree with your scenario, should the Marxist win re-election, but I'm not as optimistic about our prospects, if the liberal is elected. Simply managing the decline set in place by the Obama regime won't get us through the liberal's one (and only) term in office.
We might see CWII before the 2016 campaign begins.
He’s going to wipe out ALL COLLEGE DEBT!! Then he’ll get 85% of the vote!!
oh PLEASE.....50% of the people pay NO FEDERAL INCOME TAXES and a TON of them get MONEY from us!!
"Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." ― Joseph Stalin
“It’s doubtful that obama will carry any of the states that are close to 50% as well, Dave. I doubt that the pollsters from any polling group are interviewing any registered Republicans or conservatives so even the ‘swings’ matters little.”
I used to be telephone polled, often, a little over a decade ago. These calls came after I retired and was home during normal working hours. So their audience was mainly the soccer mom having a wine break between driving the kids around, the unemployed, the illegals and those on some fake disability.
Caller ID eliminates even answering the phone. We average about 10 calls a week from so called survey/polling outfits. We see who is calling and don’t answer.
Calls after working hours often are from push polls, “like will you not vote for Romney because he hates dogs or belongs to the Mormon cult?”
I hope we’ve got people at the watch in Spain, but I’m not depending on it.
I do believe the polls will eventually come in line and the dems won’t be able to cite polls to cover their fraud.
Lots of maybes at play in my thoughts, but if we turn out big, maybe they can’t get away with it.
And if we can hold them back for a few more years, maybe the USA we know and love can make a comeback.