Skip to comments.Another Day, Another Democrat-Heavy Poll Sample
Posted on 08/01/2012 11:34:00 AM PDT by BarnacleCenturion
If Obama surging to a better position among likely voters than among registered voters seems odd to you its because it is. As an empirical matter, Republicans do better among likely voters since the GOP draws from high turnout groups like seniors, while Democrats depend on constituencies with low turnout rates, like young voters and Latinos. With an impressive slate of historical polling data, Nate Silver found that shifting to likely voters causes a 1.5 point swing toward the GOP.
And if your instinct is to wonder if the samples have unrealistic proportions of Democrats to Republicans, well youre probably right. John Podhoretz already picked out the numbers this morning: Floridas 2008 exit poll when Obama won by 5 percentage points: Dem +4. Quinnipiac/NYT Florida poll today Dem +9 Ohio 2008 exit poll: Dem +8. Todays Quinnipiac poll: Dem +8 . 2008 exit poll in Pennsylvania: Dem +7. Today Quinnipiac poll: Dem +6. If todays Qunnipiac polls are right, there are more Obama voters in Florida today than in 2008, and the same number in Ohio and Pennsylvania as in 08. Choose to believe if you want.
UPDATE: Jon in Washington points out another incongruity: In most polls Romney is tied nationally, but hes losing the swing states worse than McCain did?
When Quinnipiac asked its swing state samples, Did you vote for Barack Obama or John McCain in 2008? Obama enjoys a 13 percentage point margin in Florida and a 15 percentage point margin in Ohio. Of course, in 2008, Obama won Florida by three percentage points and Ohio by 4.6 percentage points.
So these are some really heavily Democrat samples.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
I say let these losers just keep lying to themselves with this nonsense. Their delusion will work out to our benefit.
On November 6th, there will be another heavy poll, this one with teeth!
Quinnipiac, CBS, NY Times poll was busted before breakfast.
This same poll asked respondents about senate races.
FL Senate - Dem beat GOP by 7 points
Ohio Senate - Dem beats GOP by 12 points
PA Senate - Dem beats Gop by 18 points
The real story - the poll oversamples Democrats...and Barry UNDERPERFORMS, when compared to these Democrat senate candidates.
He’s actually BEHIND in this poll, relative to other Rats....7 points in PA, 6 points in Ohio, and 1 in Florida.