Skip to comments.Pew: Obama has big lead; Romney favorability drops (D +19)
Posted on 08/02/2012 2:32:18 PM PDT by nhwingut
New polling data out from Pew Research Center finds President Obama with a double-digit lead over Mitt Romney nationally:
Currently, 51% say they support Obama or lean toward him, while 41% support or lean toward Romney. This is largely unchanged from earlier in July and consistent with polling over the course of this year. Across eight Pew Research Center surveys since January, Obama has led Romney by between four and 12 percentage points.
Obama holds only a four-point edge (48% to 44%) across 12 of this years key battleground states. While the data does not allow a state-by-state analysis, the overall balance of support in these closely contested states has remained level in recent months, with Obama slightly ahead, but neither candidate holding a significant advantage.
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
Not called Pew for nothing...
Maybe they should just take their poll at the Democratic convention and be done with it.
What is going on? They have to know we look at internals. I mean are they this stupid.
This is a very interesting poll. By looking at the data extremely carefully, one can discern that Pew would vote for zer0.
Talk about bullsh!t poll. Trying to convince us to stay home
This November we will send this Obamanation to the trashheap of political assholes.
About 96 days from giving a damn. First Tuesday in November is the only poll that really matters.
I would not believe anything they say
Anybody know what happened to the Literary Digest after that? I haven't seen a copy for sale on a newsstand ... ever.
Romney is a thoroughly artificial and unlikeable person - just like Obama. And he’s about as liberal as Obama in anything that does not involve his personal finances. Notice his silence on the issues the rest of us are fighting for.
I keep hoping that something will happen to give us a different candidate between now and election day - but it won’t.
All things being equal, which they are, I think people will chose the devil they know over the devil they don’t.
‘Velcome to ze Ministry of Trwuth!’
Really!? Do tell...
BTAIM, the sample is unrepresentative even of polls.
EXACTLY! That's just silly!
Rasmussen has Romney +2 among likely voters, Gallup has Zero +2 among registered voters. It's just unbelievable that they think the 'rats outnumber the Pubbies 2:1. Seriously, they don't.
yes they are, it’s the big lie strategy and they’re “all in”
“Talk about bullsh!t poll. Trying to convince us to stay home”
I’m thinking that things are looking so great for the Kenyan that the libtards have no reason to go to the polls :)
Vote for a Communist rather than a Republican? Not me.
Axelrod: “I told you to oversample by nine”
Pew: “I thought you said nine.. teen.”
Something is going on.... Ras had Romney at +5 just a couple of days ago. I cant look at Ras everyday, it will make me crazy.... God Help Us
"2,508 adults, including 1,956 registered voters"
90 days from an election they should be doing better sampling than that.
Like someone said if they use the 2008 turnout which will not happen Romney is up by 10 lol
“I keep hoping that something will happen to give us a different candidate between now and election day - but it wont.”
This was my “maiden” post on FR. I am very hopeful that recent conservative victories give the conservative side of the GOP the momentum it needs to push us to the right. Either replace Romney or cause him to realize that if he has to be “maleable”, that conservatism is where the grassroots of the party lies.
This isn’t likely voters, this isn’t even just registered voters, this is all adults with dem oversampling. They might as well go to to the Occupy camp and get their data.
Don’t look at me. If they included me in the sample they would have gotten “Somebody Else” as my preference.
If the sample were D 34 R 30 I 36 (Still allowing a D+4), Romney would be leading by 6 points.
“What is going on? They have to know we look at internals. I mean are they this stupid.”
They know it...
They ALSO know that the vast majority of the sheeple are only going to see the screamed headline “OBAMA KEADS ROMNEY BY 19!”, like NBC Evening News did tonite.
Yeah, they REALLY ARE just that fricken desperate now.
I used to search their site and post the tricks pulled by Pew. I don’t bother anymore, but I remember them doing things like the question they actually asked was not the polling question they announced, or they took responses that belonged in the “no” category and added them into the “yes” category. They are very bogus.
It seems that “Nursing home residents whose health care providers filled out the poll for them” MIGHT have been a wee bit oversampled.
Rasmussen is a 3-day rolling average tracking poll. He denies it, but my instinct is that 1.) polling for the Republican tends to fall over weekends. I mainly pay attention to the Thursday and Friday numbers, which don't include the weekend. 2.) I take the polling numbers between Memorial Day and Labor Day with a grain of salt, because most people with jobs and families take vacations then, and are unavailable to pollsters. Summer polling should be biased towards individuals without jobs and families. Who tend to be liberals.
FWIW, I think this Pew poll is just badly done -- VASTLY oversampling 'rats -- and is therefore meaningless noise.
Zero's minions wouldn't be going berserk now if he were really ahead, would they? And they are going berserk. THIS may be what's worrying them:
Yes but that wouldnt fit the media script
Just guessing why they are doing this now. Everyone keeps saying that “even Carter” was way ahead of Reagan in the Summer before the election. So they feel they’d better give Obama a boost to keep his side from being completely demoralized.
Without analyzing their methods in detail, their sample had lots of people who are not even voters. So I’m thinking that whatever their method of selecting people to poll, they basically didn’t have a method. They talked to people at random and then basically used whatever they got. I don’t think you can conduct a “scientific” poll of a large nation that way.
The BEST thing for us is to go into November with these clowns thinking that they might win. If that’s the case, then they may not (and I’m saying “may not”, not “will not”) engage in the level of cheating that they would do if they thought they had nothing to lose.
Axelrod: I told you to oversample by nine
Pew: I thought you said nine.. teen.
Exactly right. The whole stinking incestuous mess of the RAT party, the lamestream media, and their pollsters is simply obvious! I hang up on pollsters; don’t trust ANY of ‘em. They have to resort to from +9 to +19 over-polling of RATS to have a chance?
Look, normal people are angry and disgusted at what the LEFT is doing to our great country, and yet the incestuous, smarmy liberal elites continue to spew their poison.
But, take heart! Throughout the country—despite and because of the poisoning of the country by the Left—a roar of rejection is meeting the RATS. Reflect on the 2010 midterms and how the people spoke. Or, in NJ with Chris Christie; in MA, with Scott Brown (!); in UT, with the ousting of Bennett; in FL, with Rubio crushing the establishment; in OH with Mourdock stomping Lugar; in WI with Walker and the GOP surviving the onslaught and WINNING; and, in TX with Cruz crushing the establishment. I could go fricking on and on, but you get the idea. But still, in the face of ALL this and much more, the LEFT continues their charades.
So, a maelstrom approaches in November. Despite everything we all continue to hear, Americans have decided, are deciding, and will decide, that they profoundly reject what has been shoved down our throats by the RATS since 2008. It’s going to take the RATS a long time to recover from what the American people are about to deliver to them in November.
These are meant to influence the stupidos who watch the MSM and these sheeple don’t know “internals” from Third Base.
Instead they announce that Bill Clinton will be the keynote speaker for a person that for all intents and purposes Bill Clinton wishes dead.
November is going to be something that Politico is going to say put us out of the capability of paying our rent in Rosslyn, Virginia.
Oversample Democrats by 19 points....
....and Zero leads by 10 points.
Ah gee, maybe this isn’t realy good news for Barry.
No, if you normalize this to a more plausible sample to roughly 1/3 Dem/Rep/Indy, and consider that Zero is running behind Romney with indys, even in this badly sampled poll, it is not good news for the Big Zero. Although the MSM will obviously try to spin it that way.
Pelosi would still have her job if the Pew D/R ratio was accurate. She doesn't, and is unlikely to get it back any time soon.
Pollsters are trying to correct for that by increasing the "Independent" classification.
This particular Pew poll corrected by simply increasing the Democrat representation and decreasing the Republican representation ~ and that can only be due to the fact the Independents also reflected they don't like either guy.
This is a RACE TO THE BOTTOM and the lead will change hands back and forth without reference to real popularity ~ just the relative popularity, and the way the pollsters handle their non-responses, and undecideds.
Romney does not have a large Republican following. Take that "Hey, he got 10 million votes in the primary' story. With your average Republican the last 3 elections getting about about 58 million votes, that's just 16% of Republicans saying they liked him ~ and with so terribly many OPEN PRIMARIES, odds are half of them were Democrats!
Not sure a guy who really draws only 8% of Republican votes can beat Obama ~ or anybody else for that matter. George McGovern could have beat that!
Do the numbers yourself ~ you'll get the same empty feeling in the pit of your tummy MItt got back in 2008 when he got 18,000 votes in the Virginia primary ~ against half a dozen opponents! Had to be a really bad feeling eh.
*cough* bullsh!t *cough*
There’s a reason it’s called PEW.
“The BEST thing for us is to go into November with these clowns thinking that they might win.”
The problem is that when Romney wins easily with real results, you will never convince the 10% of the population (composed of unassimilated permanently-dependent ethnic malcontents) that Obama wasn’t robbed. Not that I care, but until they cooperate with the Dems’ plan to contracept and abort themselves into extinction we still have to deal with them.
“Romney does not have a large Republican following.”
I think many white Dems, and independents of all colors, will vote for Romney out of economic desperation; NO Repubs and few independents will return the favor for Obama. He is “the devil you know”, but he is still the devil and his first term has been disastrous for most Americans.