Skip to comments.Washington, get ready for more Iranian influence after Bashar al-Assad falls in Syria
Posted on 08/02/2012 3:41:17 PM PDT by SunkenCiv
Many Lebanese have understandably adopted the Syrian uprising against Bashar al-Assad as their own. During Syria's 15-year occupation of their country, they experienced firsthand the suffering of living in the shadows of a brutal police state. Mr. Assad's security chiefs (some recently killed) ran Lebanon with an iron fist, and are believed to be largely responsible for a string of assassinations targeting that country's political leaders.
But once the euphoria of toppling the dictator of Damascus subsides, Lebanon is in for a rude awakening. For all his brutality, Assad is not Lebanon's foremost curse, nor will his departure be that country's salvation. The real threat to Lebanon's body politic, as with most Arab societies, is the sectarian mindset that permeates all aspects of life and allows for foreign meddling in its affairs.
Over the years, the Assad regime learned how to manipulate Lebanon's sectarian divisions to maintain its dominion over a fractured nation. But so did Iran and Hezbollah, the Shiite militant group that now dominates Lebanon's political scene. In the absence of Beirut's Damascene master, Iran will work to fill the void left behind.
In fact, this process of growing Iranian influence is already underway and will likely accelerate after Assad's fall. Lebanon is largely an Iranian dominion, governed by a Hezbollah dominated coalition government since the toppling of the Western leaning parliamentary majority in 2010. Key state security posts are securely within the militant group's sphere of influence.
(Excerpt) Read more at csmonitor.com ...
Lebanese Hezbollah supporters carry a picture of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Syria's President Bashar al-Assad, and Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad celebrating Mr. Ahmadinejad's arrival in Beirut October 13, 2010. Op-ed contributor Firas Maksad says: 'Unless deterred by reinvigorated international attention to Lebanon, Iran will gain rather than lose influence in the eastern Mediterranean' after the fall of Mr. Assad in Syria. [Jamal Saidi/Reuters]
Apropos of nothing, I love that song “The Sophomoric Philosophy”.
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Hezbollah have moved into Syria to fight Al Qaeda and the Muslim Brother. If Assad falls, Tehran will run the joint.
It’s hard to believe that we are preparing to suck up to a guy who was a key player in taking the embassy hostages back in the Carter years.
Instability brought to you by the unstable. Thanks Obama.
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You assume that Hezbollah (and Assad?) will win. And the Regime will come out of it even more dependent on Iran.
Alawites are 12% of the population. I don't see how 12% can dominate the rest forever.
It is unlikely that the fall of Assad will increase Iranian influence. This is because 75% of Syria is Sunni, and only 10% are from Assad’s tribe, the Alawite Shiite, that ruled Syria.
This resulted in Shiite Iran backing Shiite Assad, who in turn would back Shiite Hezbollah in Lebanon. To show how tenuous this is, Iran offered some financial backing to Sunni Hamas in Gaza, to attack Israel, but when the money ran out, so did Hamas’ appreciation for Iran.
With Assad out of the picture, the odds favor Sunnis ruling Syria, which changes its alliances to join the Muslim Brotherhood (Sunni) in Egypt, as well as Bedouin Jordan, and even some support from Saudi Arabia, all of whom have been uncomfortable with Shiite meddling on their doorstep.
It also likely means a cooler, if not unfriendly, relationship with Russia, because Russia has shown much favoritism to Shiite Iran since the fall of their buddy Saddam in Iraq.