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Cause for Concern
Weekly Standard ^ | AUG 2, 2012 | William Kristol

Posted on 08/02/2012 8:04:00 PM PDT by lasereye

A savvy friend, a Romney supporter who has an excellent track record of reading election trends, emails:

“I worry that some of our friends are reassuring themselves by challenging the merits of yesterday’s Quinnipiac swing state polls and others, focusing on the partisan split in the samples and other explanations. But are almost all the swing state pollsters making mistakes—and in the same direction? Here's what I think is happening.

“The national numbers aren't changing much because Romney is actually gaining in the states that are not being bombarded with media. Yesterday’s Connecticut poll has Obama by only 8 for example. And red states seem to be getting even redder. This is happening because the daily news is about the economy, Washington problems, etc. and that is the main message getting through. So, polls in these states reflect how voters who only see national news and national advertising (to the degree there is any) respond.

“But.

“In the swing states they are being assailed with ads and campaigning, as well as the news. And here Obama seems to be building a bit of a margin. He now is ahead by solid margins in the most recent surveys in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. It's very close in Colorado, and Romney has a slight lead in North Carolina.

“Team Romney needs to consider this possibility. I don't think it will be enough for them merely to continue the passive approach they are taking. Romney needs to stand for some things the voters want.”


TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; election; polls; romney
I assume Romney's people are doing polls as well. Any Freepers close to the campaign? I wonder what their opinion is about these polls.

This inability of Romney to deploy much cash till after the convention stinks. After that he'll open up with both barrels.

1 posted on 08/02/2012 8:04:14 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye

>> After [the convention] he’ll open up with both barrels.

Well, let’s HOPE he will. Certainly every indication is he’s a tougher campaigner than McCain ever dreamed of being.

Also, many people don’t really pay attention until after Labor Day. He’ll have plenty of money to get the message out when it counts the most, whereas Barky will be somewhat depleted by then.

Finally — whether or not Kristol downplays it — the ‘rat pushpolls’ fundamentals DO stink to high heaven.


2 posted on 08/02/2012 8:09:19 PM PDT by Nervous Tick (Love the cult, respect the leader, but I simply can't drink the koolaid and die.)
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To: Nervous Tick

I’m not real knowledgeable on polls. I’m under the impression Quinnipiac is fairly respected but I don’t see how some of the party identification numbers could be accurate.


3 posted on 08/02/2012 8:17:51 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye
“Team Romney needs to consider this possibility. I don't think it will be enough for them merely to continue the passive approach they are taking. Romney needs to stand for some things the voters want.”

Maybe he doesn't want to give the fascists on the left any fodder before the debates. Lord knows he has a truck load of ammo to use against Oboma. I mean, c'mon. A pencil eraser should be able to beat Oboma because of his dismal leadership.

Why feed the MSM monsters early and let them spin the message? Why not wait for the debates where all those who are watching will hear what he really has to say in his own words?

4 posted on 08/02/2012 8:18:51 PM PDT by concerned about politics ("Get thee behind me, Liberal")
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To: lasereye

>> I don’t see how some of the party identification numbers could be accurate.

Right.

Also, lots of polling of “adults” or “registered voters”, not “likely voters”. The enthusiasm gap between (R) and (D) voters is going to be *very* important this year, in my opinion.


5 posted on 08/02/2012 8:20:33 PM PDT by Nervous Tick (Love the cult, respect the leader, but I simply can't drink the koolaid and die.)
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To: lasereye

Kristol is not a very incisive pundit. How’s that Arab Spring working now? These polling models are a joke. The best thing is to look at is trends among independents, providing that independents have been correctly identified. The D/R ratio is totally bogus. Why do these pundits exhibit such shallow, uncritical analytical skills?


6 posted on 08/02/2012 8:20:43 PM PDT by grumpygresh (Democrats delenda est; zero sera dans l'enfer bientot.)
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To: concerned about politics

By the time of the debates most people have already made up their minds. You can’t pin everything on the debates. Plus while I think Obama’s alleged debating skills are over rated, he does lie well.


7 posted on 08/02/2012 8:21:16 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye

So we are supposed to take polls with wildly flawed samples seriously. Kristol is as worthless as ever.


8 posted on 08/02/2012 8:22:07 PM PDT by ilgipper ( November cannot come soon enough)
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To: grumpygresh

Kristol is a knucklehead neocon.

Take a look here: http://www.isidewith.com/blog/38320972-swing-states-and-gun-control

Obama’s in big trouble in these swing states on guns. Romney will use this to his advantage.


9 posted on 08/02/2012 8:23:58 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: Nervous Tick
Also, lots of polling of “adults” or “registered voters”, not “likely voters”.

These are likely voter polls.

10 posted on 08/02/2012 8:24:35 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: ilgipper

Actually Rasmussen shows gains for Obama in the swing states also. It’s not just this poll. Rasmussen showed Romney with the electoral edge in June and now shows Obama ahead enough to carry the election.

So I think it’s pretty clear Obama has been making some gains in swing states. There is some cause for concern.


11 posted on 08/02/2012 8:27:59 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye

>> These are likely voter polls.

Quinnapiac’s may indeed have been; I didn’t see the details of that one.

I’m thinking of that outrageous Pew poll that oversampled Democrats by something like 17% and showed O up in the swing states. It was *not* likely voters.


12 posted on 08/02/2012 8:29:27 PM PDT by Nervous Tick (Love the cult, respect the leader, but I simply can't drink the koolaid and die.)
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To: lasereye

who cares what the polls are saying at the time. i have seen polls for many years and they are only accurate on the last day of the election to save the poller’s behinds.

just tell everyone you know that the sissy obama will lose in a landslide and there is no reason for the libtards to vote.

on election day instead of voting they should lick their wounds by smoking weed and wonder why hope and change didn’t work because it was all smoke and chains.

blessings, bobo


13 posted on 08/02/2012 8:30:59 PM PDT by bobo1
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To: lasereye

who cares what the polls are saying at the time. i have seen polls for many years and they are only accurate on the last day of the election to save the poller’s behinds.

just tell everyone you know that the sissy obama will lose in a landslide and there is no reason for the libtards to vote.

on election day instead of voting they should lick their wounds by smoking weed and wonder why hope and change didn’t work because it was all smoke and chains.

blessings, bobo


14 posted on 08/02/2012 8:31:18 PM PDT by bobo1
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To: lasereye
Quinnipiac is fairly respected

It always leans left. Maybe it's the way they tilt their questions.

Rasmussen is the best. I trust them the most. They don't play games.
Personally, it's the only poll I pay attention to. I automatically ignore all the rest. There's too much money being moved around and push polling going on.

15 posted on 08/02/2012 8:31:37 PM PDT by concerned about politics ("Get thee behind me, Liberal")
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To: lasereye
The concern I hear from some around the water cooler is that Romney's Mormon faith is preventing him from striking back hard, because it goes against his teachings as a leader in his church. Getting mean and dirty would put Romney at odds with his faith.

I don't know how true this is, but I have heard it.

-PJ

16 posted on 08/02/2012 8:33:08 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ( It doesn't come naturally when you're not natural born.)
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To: lasereye

actually probably a good thing.

most americans are lazy and don’t involve themselves in politics until fall when the elections are closer.

the sissy will probably have most of his money spent by then, judging from the way he runs the country.

the sissy probably didn’t make much money by trying to heist the public’s wedding gifts.

maybe his grassroots can go out and panhandle in the street?

opps, they already do that. wonder if they would share half their take every day to support the obamanation?

let’s see, would i give up a quart of beer and a pack of smokes to the sissy, nah, don’t think they would.

Blessings, bobo


17 posted on 08/02/2012 8:40:43 PM PDT by bobo1
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To: Political Junkie Too

>> Getting mean and dirty would put Romney at odds with his faith.

Didn’t seem to faze him in the primaries. ;-)


18 posted on 08/02/2012 8:41:23 PM PDT by Nervous Tick (Love the cult, respect the leader, but I simply can't drink the koolaid and die.)
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To: concerned about politics
Rasmussen is the best. I trust them the most. They don't play games.

They show Obama ahead in electoral votes with enough to win even as they continue to show Romney leading nationally. In June they showed Romney leading in electoral votes.

19 posted on 08/02/2012 8:42:53 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: Nervous Tick
Yeah.

-PJ

20 posted on 08/02/2012 8:45:43 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ( It doesn't come naturally when you're not natural born.)
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To: Political Junkie Too

That doesn’t seem to bother Harry Reid. He’s as mean and dirty as they come.


21 posted on 08/02/2012 8:51:22 PM PDT by Licensed-To-Carry (Hey Obama! All you have done is awaken a sleeping giant and filled us with a terrible resolve!!)
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To: lasereye

You’ve got to look at the weighting of the polls, and half the time they don’t include the methodology. Rush did an excellent job on this yesterday; in the swing state results that looked so good for Obiteme they had simply added 8 or 9 percent Democrats to the vote, over what had shown up in either of the last 2 elections, trending against the Dems, and every indication that they are less enthusiastic about voting now than then.

In other words, they’re cooking the books and not telling you.

In other words, they are lying to you.

“I’m shocked—SHOCKED—!!!”


22 posted on 08/02/2012 9:23:12 PM PDT by Humble Servant
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To: lasereye

"So I think it’s pretty clear Obama has been making some gains in swing states. There is some cause for concern"

Romney needs to go on the offensive. This really shouldn't be this close of a race. I disagree with pundits who think he should put out his plans now (the leftists will just attack it with lies, anyway- same thing they did to Paul Ryan). Instead, go for broad themes- with a heavy nod to Reagan and the explosive growth we had when he was president. We can have that again.

And Romney should point out the truth in his ads: all Obama has is empty promises (it's his M.O.), economic gimmicks and endless blaming tactics, and attempts to turn this great country into a miserable place where everybody is envious of each other. We have a plan- why reinvent the wheel? Go with what works- and what worked marvelously was what we had under Reagan.

23 posted on 08/02/2012 9:30:10 PM PDT by Qbert ("The best defense against usurpatory government is an assertive citizenry" - William F. Buckley, Jr.)
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To: Political Junkie Too
Romney's Mormon faith is preventing him from striking back hard...

Dirty Harry Reid is also LDS - and it doesn't seem to phase him any...

24 posted on 08/02/2012 10:00:33 PM PDT by muffaletaman (IMNSHO - I MIGHT be wrong, but I doubt it.)
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To: lasereye
1) all the polls except Rasmussen and Gallup misstate the Republican/Democrat/independent breakdown and so favor Obama.

2) all pollsters admit that it is technically very difficult to measure intensity and intensity unquestionably favors the Republicans this year.

3) my subjective view is that it is far easier and much cheaper to persuade rather than to un-persuade voters. Therefore, Romney risks having an uphill climb during the final sprint to the polling booth. That means he must get his message out when the clutter will be at its most extreme. That message can also easily be lost in an October surprise and it will be submerged and diverted at every level by the establishment media.

4) although the Romney campaign itself is barred from expending funds until after the convention, the public interest groups are not and they are well-heeled. Clearly, Karl Rove is no fool and disposes of tens of millions of dollars which might have gone to defend Romney yet Karl Rove appears on Fox and with his whiteboard and attempts to dispel any concerns that Obama is stealing the March on Romney in the critical swing states.

5) I have been questioning on these threads for some time now the apparent anomaly between the numbers we have seen that say that the independents are favoring Romney as much used two to one, yet that advantage does not appear to be reflected in the polls among the ranks of the undecideds where one would naturally look for it.


25 posted on 08/03/2012 12:12:30 AM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: concerned about politics

“Why feed the MSM monsters early and let them spin the message?”

I agree; in fact, Team Romney should float a fake VP choice for a while to draw the fire (and kill more credibility) of the media before the real choice is announced.

Obama does create his opponents’ commercials for them.


26 posted on 08/03/2012 2:07:26 AM PDT by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: Nervous Tick

“The enthusiasm gap between (R) and (D) voters is going to be *very* important this year, in my opinion.”

The enthusiasm gap between (I) and (D) is what will crush Obama; too many people have been getting an “up close and personal” schooling in economic misery for several years now, and they are very motivated to vote against a man who says, “The private sector is doing fine.” and “If you have a small business, you didn’t build that.”.

Obama will back on his life-support teleprompter until the election, and those phrases will haunt him through his concession speech.


27 posted on 08/03/2012 2:11:06 AM PDT by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: Qbert

“Romney needs to go on the offensive. This really shouldn’t be this close of a race.”

I don’t think it will be close, and Romney should just do what Obama did in 2008; smile and wave, and let his surrogates do the attacking.


28 posted on 08/03/2012 2:19:10 AM PDT by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: lasereye

Did any of the polls in question have the November 2010 massacre right before election day?


29 posted on 08/03/2012 2:25:09 AM PDT by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
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To: kearnyirish2

I don’t think it will be close either. We have to remember all the outfits in question and all the media are on the other side. Any other president at any other time of either party with the economy where it’s at, the discussion in all the media would have been how badly will he be defeated. Not with this guy.


30 posted on 08/03/2012 2:28:21 AM PDT by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
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To: John W

I was told by older people that Carter acted in the same manner during the 1980 campaign; he was told months before that he was going to inevitably lose, but he put on a brave face and tried to help the others “down the ticket” from him.

I don’t know why people are so confident Obama can win; how many closed businesses, open businesses with no clients, houses for sale, etc. would it take for him to lose? There is every indication that he will lose based on the elections since his own, and those numbers don’t lie. They are facts.


31 posted on 08/03/2012 2:34:44 AM PDT by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: kearnyirish2

Until Obama is gone I am not convinced. We are not the same nation as we were in 1980 and Obama garners racial solidarity in a way that is beyond disgusting.


32 posted on 08/03/2012 2:37:08 AM PDT by GlockThe Vote (The Obama Adminstration: 2nd wave of attacks on America after 9/11)
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To: lasereye
Recently NBC ran a poll which had Obama up by I think 9 points and it was celebrated in the media. However Chuck Todd, NBC analyst and big time Obama guy admitted the following morning the poll was biased due to huge democrat over sampling.

He said they sampled that way because they believed that would be the voter turnout on election day. In other words it was a poll based on wishful thinking.

33 posted on 08/03/2012 2:37:44 AM PDT by beenaround
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To: GlockThe Vote

“Until Obama is gone I am not convinced. We are not the same nation as we were in 1980 and Obama garners racial solidarity in a way that is beyond disgusting.”

I agree; it isn’t over until it’s over. At the same time, the “racial solidarity” myth died soon after the election. How else to explain the disasters at the ballot box in 2009 and 2010 (often in states he won in 2008)? The fact that most whites can clearly see he has nothing at all to say to them speaks volumes; every demographic group is worse off than four years ago, and that is tough to overcome. Not only am I personally worse off, but I have a dentist and a car mechanic pushing me to get work done that I won’t do through borrowing; they are feeling Obamanomics as well.

Too many people remember better times, and that is what will get Obama. Governor Christie’s election here in NJ, and his subsequent strength in popularity, would NEVER HAVE HAPPENED 10 years ago; there is a mood of financial desperation in this country, not about our grandchildren’s future, not even our children’s, but our very own.


34 posted on 08/03/2012 2:46:54 AM PDT by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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