Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Seasonal And Birth Death Adjustments Add 429,000 Statistical "Jobs"
ZeroHedge ^ | 8/3/2012 | "Tyler Durden"

Posted on 08/03/2012 6:09:39 AM PDT by Pearls Before Swine

BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics

Happy by the headline establishment survey print of 133,245 which says that the US "added" 163,000 jobs in July from 133,082 last month? Consider this: the number was based on a non seasonally adjusted July number of 132,868. This was a 1.248 million drop from the June print. So how did the smoothing work out to make a real plunge into an "adjusted" rise? Simple: the BLS "added" 377K jobs for seasonal purposes. This was the largest seasonal addition in the past decade for a July NFP print in the past decade, possibly ever, as the first chart below shows. But wait, there's more: the Birth Death adjustment, which adds to the NSA Print to get to the final number, was +52k. How does this compare to July 2011? It is about 1000% higher: the last B/D adjustment was a tiny +5K! In other words, of the 163,000 jobs "added", 429,000 was based on purely statistical fudging. Doesn't matter - the flashing red headline is good enough for the algos.

(Excerpt) Read more at zerohedge.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: 0bamarigged; blsstatistics; economy; rigged; scamarama; unemployment
I've included the entire text, but there's also two graphs which show historical perspective of the adjustments.

The key takeaway for me is that any changes in the employment picture are small compared to the statistical noise. It's the classical problem of trying to detect a signal in the presence of overwhelming noise.

1 posted on 08/03/2012 6:09:46 AM PDT by Pearls Before Swine
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind; blam

ping


2 posted on 08/03/2012 6:17:35 AM PDT by Perdogg (Let's leave reading things in the Constitution that aren't there to liberals and Dems)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Pearls Before Swine
"Happy by the headline establishment survey print of 133,245 which says that the US "added" 163,000 jobs in July from 133,082 last month? Consider this: the number was based on a non seasonally adjusted July number of 132,868."

Took me a bit to make some sense out of the. The author might have taken a little time to add 000s to the appropriate numbers, that way the addition and subtract would see to work out.

Meanwhile, yes that was a large seasonal adjustment.

3 posted on 08/03/2012 6:29:53 AM PDT by Positive (Nothing is sadder than to see a beautiful theory murdered by a gang of brutal facts.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Pearls Before Swine

You could use Kalman filtering techniques. But then they’d be trapped in the mathematics, and unable to lie and fudge the numbers. Ok, they could still lie, it would just be harder and even more obvious.


4 posted on 08/03/2012 6:32:24 AM PDT by ThunderSleeps (Stop obama now! Stop the hussein - insane agenda!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Pearls Before Swine

Yep. Obama cooked the books. That was obvious at the July 14th numbers. All of a sudden there were 240,000+ extra people employed.


5 posted on 08/03/2012 6:40:54 AM PDT by CodeToad (History says our end is near.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Pearls Before Swine

Obamacare will help either put the unemployed on disability or just outright kill them. Job numbers will look great then.


6 posted on 08/03/2012 6:56:03 AM PDT by JudgemAll (Democrats Fed. job-security Whorocracy & hate:hypocrites must be gay like us or be tested/crucified)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Positive
It would have been easier to read if he stated:

# jobs, not seasonally adjusted
June 134,072,000
July 132,860,000
=
-1,212,000 fewer jobs in July

After running -1,212,000 through 2 statistical tools: the Birth and Death model and seaonal adjustment

-1,212,000 becomes +163,000
7 posted on 08/03/2012 7:04:12 AM PDT by khelus
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Pearls Before Swine
"Obama battles job crisis: 3 years...and counting

The U.S. economy lost 4.3 million jobs in President Obama's first 13 months in office. It still has to gain 316,000 jobs for him to break even."

http://www.money.cnn.com/news/economy/storysupplement/obama_jobs_timeline/

8 posted on 08/03/2012 7:12:03 AM PDT by Qbert ("The best defense against usurpatory government is an assertive citizenry" - William F. Buckley, Jr.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Pearls Before Swine

Obviously we should just hire all the unemployed do paperwork, half to fill out paperwork and the other half to file/shred it.

It is like the 21st century equivalent of digging a hole and filling it back in....


9 posted on 08/03/2012 7:30:47 AM PDT by GraceG
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Pearls Before Swine

The laughable part of this report is that even with the re-fried numbers, the rate STILL went up a tick. Obama’s minions are probably p-o’d about that.

I sure hope that a Romney Labor Department starts off by going back and correcting all of the mystical magical sham-wow numbers that have been foisted upon the public over the past 3 years (frankly, that’s the only way Romney will be able to show any actual improvements before 2016).

Then I hope they cut their staff to almost nothing and relegate most of their “services” to the states. But I’m probably dreaming about both of those hopes.


10 posted on 08/03/2012 7:38:53 AM PDT by alancarp (Liberals are all for shared pain... until they're included in the pain group.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: alancarp
The laughable part of this report is that even with the re-fried numbers...

I don't actually believe BLS is cooking the books, although Obama would like that. They are probably doing the best they can to guess what the adjustments should be. But, when the adjustments are several times as large as the net result, you can't have any faith in the monthly numbers as indicating any trend.

I bet Obama will be trumpeting the upturn in employment in a speech soon, and say that the unemployment uptick is just due to the statistics!

11 posted on 08/03/2012 8:03:36 AM PDT by Pearls Before Swine
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Pearls Before Swine
"I don't actually believe BLS is cooking the books, although Obama would like that."

Seriously?? They have been playing with the numbers ever since the rate hit 10%. Actually, I found a reference to indicate that "long-term discouraged" unemployment were actually officially done away with in 1994... during the Clinton years. So it isn't like this is a new art form.

12 posted on 08/03/2012 8:20:07 AM PDT by alancarp (Liberals are all for shared pain... until they're included in the pain group.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: khelus
"It would have been easier to read if he stated:

# jobs, not seasonally adjusted
June 134,072,000
July 132,860,000
=
-1,212,000 fewer jobs in July

After running -1,212,000 through 2 statistical tools: the Birth and Death model and seaonal adjustment

-1,212,000 becomes +163,000

Thanks; Indeed it would have.

13 posted on 08/03/2012 8:52:52 AM PDT by Positive (Nothing is sadder than to see a beautiful theory murdered by a gang of brutal facts.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: CodeToad

As a life-long bookkeeper, I would have been jailed by now for using such math to produce numbers ‘the boss’ wants to see.


14 posted on 08/03/2012 9:15:08 AM PDT by ridesthemiles
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Qbert

It still has to gain 316,000 jobs for him to break even.””””

PER MONTH


15 posted on 08/03/2012 9:19:01 AM PDT by ridesthemiles
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: alancarp
Re cooking the books: ("Seriously?") What I mean is that, silly as the presentation of the numbers may be, the BLS has been as infiltrated by Obama-ites as, say, the NLRB. The methods have been changed over the years (hedonic equivalents), but within the methods I don't think they are outright changing numbers.

It isn't as cynically bad as what happened with the CBO scoring of the ObamaCare act, where the CBO is only allowed to project out ten years, so they set it up with ten years of estimated income into the system and six years of benefits.

16 posted on 08/03/2012 9:48:51 AM PDT by Pearls Before Swine
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: alancarp

I meant BLS “has’nt been” instead of “has been” in post 16.


17 posted on 08/03/2012 10:34:21 AM PDT by Pearls Before Swine
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: GraceG
Obviously we should just hire all the unemployed do paperwork, half to fill out paperwork and the other half to file/shred it.

It is like the 21st century equivalent of digging a hole and filling it back in....

Watch the film Brazil to see how it's done

18 posted on 08/03/2012 11:19:54 AM PDT by spokeshave (The only people better off today than 4 years ago are the Prisoners at Guantanamo.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: ridesthemiles

Boss: “So, did we make the $1 million quarterly sales figure?”

You: “Seasonally adjusted, we did.”

Yeah, not going over too well.


19 posted on 08/03/2012 1:50:05 PM PDT by CodeToad (History says our end is near.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: khelus

I have tried to find the seasonal adjustments for each month going back a year or more without luck. I have a suspicion that the total adjustments for a year do not add up to zero. That in fact they add up to a lot of “fudged” jobs. I can’t seem to find them on the government site, even though in the past I did.


20 posted on 08/03/2012 4:16:46 PM PDT by Revolutionary ("Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition!")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Pearls Before Swine

Faux News is CHEERING the great news.

Market is up, oil is UP (MORE good news) — all because of the phantom added jobs that RAISED the unemployment rate.

Happy days are here again — SPEND!

Do I need the /s?

Probably so.


21 posted on 08/03/2012 5:30:12 PM PDT by treetopsandroofs (Had FDR been GOP, there would have been no World Wars, just "The Great War" and "Roosevelt's Wars".)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Pearls Before Swine

I remember when I had a statistical job. It was great. Benefits galore, such as unlimited vacation. Paid 60 minutes an hour before overtime.


22 posted on 08/04/2012 2:45:21 PM PDT by Eleutheria5 (End the occupation. Annex today.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Revolutionary
I have tried to find the seasonal adjustments for each month going back a year or more without luck. I have a suspicion that the total adjustments for a year do not add up to zero. That in fact they add up to a lot of “fudged” jobs. I can’t seem to find them on the government site, even though in the past I did.

I am quite certain someone designed the way the data is presented and stored to deter people from checking into it.

You can find the Birth and Death adjustments here.

Per the BLS, "Note that the net birth/death figures are not seasonally adjusted, and are applied to the not seasonally adjusted monthly employment estimates to derive the final CES employment estimates." published in Table B-1 on the monthly empsit.

Both the not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted jobs numbers on Table B-1 are subject to further adjustment for two months after they are published.

The only source of these adjustments I could find are found under 'Establishment Survey Data' in the published monthly empsit.

In the most recent empsit: "The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised from +77,000 to +87,000, and the change for June was revised from +80,000 to +64,000. "

You can find archived monthly here

I've tried to make this convoluted process as clear as possible.
23 posted on 08/05/2012 7:49:36 AM PDT by khelus
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson