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Polling and Conspiracy (from a non-conspiracy guy)
self | 8/3/2012 | LS

Posted on 08/03/2012 6:28:31 AM PDT by LS

As anyone on FreeRepublic will tell you, I am NOT a conspiracy theorist, and usually find common sense explanations for why things happen. Usually, history shows these are right. However, some things have happened recently that have me looking outside “common sense.”

1) Polling, except for Rasmussen and occasionally Gallup, has been wildly and utterly in the tank for Obama. Quinnipiac, one of the worst, came out today with a 9-point Obama lead (he’s at 50) using a +19 (!!!!) Dem sample. In an accurate sample, Romney wins by 1-2. This comes after the CBS poll last week with a +11 Dem sample. RCP shows that the average oversample of Dems is +6---all of which points to a convincing Romney victory, bordering on landslide. (I don’t think Romney can get above about 320 barring a miracle because of NY, CA, IL, and PA.) 2) Are these people dolts? Amateurs? Incompetent? I don’t think so. They’ve all been at it too long. 3) It could be, as my wife says, that they’ve really drunk the KoolAide and now are subconsciously manufacturing stuff without realizing it. Possible, but I think one of two other scenarios is in play:

I think they know Zero is going to lose, and lose convincingly. The state votes will be close, but uniformly against him. So, we have three possibilities, one of which WND came out with today.

*Knowing Zero is going to lose, they are jimmying results to prevent a GOP supermajority in the senate. This is plausible, but unlikely. Senate races don’t usually turn on coattails, let alone someone as weak as Romney. Most senate races are still somewhat local.

*Rather, I think what is really happening is this: knowing Zero is going to lose, the pollsters---fully in bed with the Dems now---are already setting the stage to delegitimize a Romney presidency. This is much as they tried to do with “Bush was Selected, not Elected!” They will say, on Nov. 7, “See, the election was STOLEN! Look at what a big lead Obama had in the polls, then look at what the GOP did!”

*the ugly possible facet of this is that they are deliberately setting the stage for race riots/leftist demonstrations that might in some conceivable universe permit Obama to declare martial law and somehow stay in office. This one is remote, but with this tyrant, you can’t rule it out. I go with “delegitimizing Romney.”


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Politics/Elections; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: election; obama; polls; romney

1 posted on 08/03/2012 6:28:38 AM PDT by LS
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To: LS

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.............


2 posted on 08/03/2012 6:33:09 AM PDT by Flintlock (-THE TRUTH--It's the NEW hate speech.)
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To: LS

Or, possibly, being liberals, they can’t believe in reality, so create their own version of it.


3 posted on 08/03/2012 6:33:38 AM PDT by frankenMonkey (will do graphics for food...)
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To: LS
setting the stage for race riots/leftist demonstrations

That would be the news media's favorite scenario...all that coverage would feed into their pocketbook.

4 posted on 08/03/2012 6:34:53 AM PDT by capt. norm (Blessed are they who can laugh at themselves for they shall never run out of material. c)
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To: LS

If Obama looses the WILL be race riots stretching out over the next for years.

The black flash mobs and the back on white violence we are seeing is the result of a new attitude among many blacks fueled by signals from Obama himself.

These animals are incapable of reason and see violence as payback.


5 posted on 08/03/2012 6:40:00 AM PDT by PetroniusMaximus
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To: LS

Their motive may be as simple as an attempt to suppress the turnout and support for Mittens?


6 posted on 08/03/2012 6:40:08 AM PDT by Kahuna
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To: LS

I used to work part-time at t survey research center.
The surveys were NOT unbiased.

There was no possible way for a Conservative to respond to any of the questions without sounding like a Liberal. PERIOD

I don’t trust ANY pols at all.

That said, the MSM have their neck in the noose right along with their hero. They will do and say absolutely ANYTHING to save themselves and HIM!

That this ‘administration’ is in active collusion with the MSM, goes without saying.


7 posted on 08/03/2012 6:42:50 AM PDT by SMARTY ("The man who has no inner-life is a slave to his surroundings. "Henri Frederic Amiel)
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To: LS

Point 3 is not “remote”.

The barbarians on the other end of the BlackBerry hate freedom, hate Western Civilization, hate this country with a burning white-hot passion.

They want to rule, to rule undisputedly, to put a boot on the face of humanity forever.

They will not go away over something as trivial as an election.


8 posted on 08/03/2012 6:43:07 AM PDT by DuncanWaring (The Lord uses the good ones; the bad ones use the Lord.)
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To: LS

Maybe these polls reflect some of the $15 million that the Obama campaign has spent on ‘polling’.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/obama-has-spent-15-million-polling_648888.html

For a cool $1 million they can probably get some of these polling outfits to provide whatever oversampling is needed to keep him in the lead.


9 posted on 08/03/2012 6:43:50 AM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: LS
They've started polling the dead voters.
10 posted on 08/03/2012 6:47:35 AM PDT by Tex-Con-Man (T. Coddington Van Voorhees VII 2012 - "Together, I Shall Ride You To Victory")
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To: LS; mnehring; COUNTrecount; Nowhere Man; FightThePower!; C. Edmund Wright; jacob allen; ...
Nano Black Helicopters

Nut-job Conspiracy Theory Ping!

To get onto The Nut-job Conspiracy Theory Ping List you need to threaten to report me to the Admin if I don’t add you to the list...

11 posted on 08/03/2012 6:49:19 AM PDT by null and void (Day 1291 of our ObamaVacation from reality - Heroes aren't made Frank, they're cornered...)
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To: Kahuna

I would crawl over glass to vote against barry


12 posted on 08/03/2012 6:53:35 AM PDT by italianquaker ( Mr Obama inherited an AAA rating and made it AA, thnx Resident Zero)
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To: PetroniusMaximus; LS; DuncanWaring

Point #3 is also the one I see them reaching for. Why?

1. It does the most damage, long-term damage that is to America. Race relations would be set back decades at the least.

2. It also sets the Takers against the Taken-From aka (Taxpayers).

3. It would bring in massive amounts of revenue for the MSM.

4. The crackdown by the Government would be felt the most in the long-term by the Law abiding. The Criminal aka Law-breaking class could give a rip. They’ll break whatever laws they feel like. Experience has shown that they will only have to pay a little bit if at all for their deeds. And one of the excuses will be that the prisons are over-crowded.


13 posted on 08/03/2012 6:55:54 AM PDT by The Working Man
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To: LS

I was actually going to post a vanity poll here this weekend with a handful of possible explanations, among which was either,

a) Prepping the country to accept a rigged/corrupt/stolen election.

b) Prepping Holder’s people for civil unrest post-election.

c) Inoculating against citizen rage when Obama cancels elections after a false flag operation results in martial law.

Less malevolent options include the usual:

d) Creating false momentum to boost turnout.

e) Discouraging conservative turnout.

f) Force of habitual/compulsive media dishonesty.

Feel free to simply vote here and now.


14 posted on 08/03/2012 6:57:16 AM PDT by dagogo redux (A whiff of primitive spirits in the air, harbingers of an impending descent into the feral.)
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To: LS

I think they are adhering to the tired old “push-poll” theory, trying to make conservatives give up and stay home, “since Obama is so far ahead.”

It’s a useless and worn out strategy, but the only one left in the MSM playbook.

Yes, they will attempt to paint a Romney win as a “stolen election,” but I don’t think that’s a conscious part of their strategy at this point. Ditto riots, at this point 3 months out.

Mis dos centavos.


15 posted on 08/03/2012 7:00:29 AM PDT by Travis McGee (www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
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To: LS
There is a fourth scenario: the doctored polls will be used to explain an Obama electoral victory obtained by voter and/or vote-counting fraud. Almost anything is possible, in my opinion....
16 posted on 08/03/2012 7:05:16 AM PDT by Hetuck
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To: Kahuna
"Their motive may be as simple as an attempt to suppress the turnout and support for Mittens?"


17 posted on 08/03/2012 7:06:18 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (=)
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To: LS

Are you some sort of Conspiracy Theorist?


18 posted on 08/03/2012 7:06:41 AM PDT by Mr. Quarterpanel (I am not an actor, but I play one on TV)
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To: LS

LOL We have a niece who is getting a PhD in something like survy modalities. We asked her if that was putting together surveys so one could get the answers one wanted.


19 posted on 08/03/2012 7:11:12 AM PDT by freeangel ( (free speech is only good until someone else doesn't like it)
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To: Kahuna

Their motive may be as simple as an attempt to suppress the turnout and support for Mittens?
++++++++++++++

Indeed. The. Libs are just doing what Libs do. No surprise to me.


20 posted on 08/03/2012 7:12:12 AM PDT by InterceptPoint (.)
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To: LS

I think your first two choices are at least probable. It may or may not be an effort of the businesses doing the polling, it could be as simple as unconscious biases of their employees.

However, I think there is an additional option (not an alternative) that you have missed. These are businesses. I don’t know what it is, but they are selling something. Follow the money.


21 posted on 08/03/2012 7:40:28 AM PDT by Darth Reardon (No offense to drunken sailors)
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To: LS
It is a vain attempt at voter suppression by (D)-dominated MSM. It is also evidence of the last gasps of their relevancy in being able to affect the outcome of any election.

Their viewership, readership, and opinion marketability is plummeting, and the power of grass-roots conservatism is defying every effort they can contrive to suppress it.

So they go to the only playbook they have ever known or have ever used in the past with some success - poll stuffing and (D)-sampling inflation.

(D)-sampling inflation is a reflection of the world within which the MSM surrounds itself. It is not reflective of the true state of the country - which is why Rasmussen's accuracy prevails over their wishful thinking.

What is interesting this time around is how easily the (D)-poll stuffing is exposed and an instant interpretation of such is instantly available.

Discrediting of the polls by virtue of their internals can happen in real time - often before the public's view is able to be sufficiently massaged to where fable becomes fact.

Used to be that back in the pre-Reagan days that MSM was the only game allowed any air time, picking winners seemed easy, and everyone belched what the NYT was saying. Not anymore.

The only ones who believe the (D)-inflated media polls are the (D)-inflated media themsleves. And no one believes THEM anymore.

Martial law and race riots need a complicit public in one context and an anger-inspired race mob in another.

When Romney wins, if there is a hint of race mob violence, there will be martial law in the big city ghettos and slums only - no where else.

Anything else is John Birch Society-style hype and fear mongering.

FReegards!


22 posted on 08/03/2012 7:51:52 AM PDT by Agamemnon (Darwinism is the glue that holds liberalism together)
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To: LS

The past is prologue.

Scorch the earth is all this Community Agitator knows. How far they will get or how successful they will be is unknown since the USA ain’t Kenya. But what can be surmised is they will try anything no matter how horrific if they think it will benefit them or they will do as much damage on the way out as possible.

In my book, Obama is a co-conspirator with Odinga in the murders and mayhem that took place in Kenya.

It boggles the mind that this unknown guy is actually masquerading as POTUS.

Senator Barack Obama in Kenya
Obama and Odinga: The True Story

http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/4353

SNIP

However, the underlying (more important issues) are verifiably true. In August and September 2006, Senator Barack Obama traveled to South Africa, Chad, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Chad and Kenya as a congressional delegation of one (Codel Obama) (“Codel Obama” The Hill 9/7/2006) While in Kenya, Obama consistently appeared at the side of fellow Luo Raila Odinga (“your agent for change’), who was running for President. (“Senator Rebukes Kenya’s Corruption” Chicago Sun Times 8/29/2006) Because of his African heritage, Obama was treated as a virtual “Head of State” in Kenya While campaigning with Odinga, Obama was openly critical of governmental corruption under President Mibaki –usually a fair, if undiplomatic, criticism from an objective observer.

SNIP

Obama’s partisan support for Odinga was considered so transparent, that the Kenyan Government spokesman, Alfred Matua, complained of political posturing to aid Odinga’s election chances: “It is very clear that the senator has been used as a puppet to perpetuate opposition politics,”

SNIP

Odinga’s supporters went on a rampage—burning Kikuyu homes and businesses, (“Ethnic Cleansing in Luoland” The Economist 2/7/2008) raping Kikuyu women, and murdering everyone in their path—including at least 50 Christian Kikuyu woman & children who had sought refuge in a church. They burned them alive. (“Mob Burns Kenyans Seeking Refuge In Church” CNN 1/10/2008)

“We have evidence that ODM [Odinga’s party] politicians and local leaders actively fomented some post-election violence,” Georgette Gagnon, acting Africa director for the New York based Human Rights Watch (HRW), said on Thursday.” (Violence We Fled was Planned, Say Kenyan Refugees” Ibid)

So: who is Raila Odinga that Senator Obama would expend his political capital and risk the goodwill of half the population of Kenya?

Their relationship is unclear. The BBC initially reported that Obama and Odinga were first cousins.(“Odinga Says Obama is His Cousin” 1/8/2008)

The Obama campaign has since denied a familial relationship. Raila Odinga’s father, Oginga Odinga, was leader of the “Kenya People’s Union” and perceived as a “committed socialist”


23 posted on 08/03/2012 8:13:29 AM PDT by Smokeyblue
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To: LS

Zero will lose.
America will win.


24 posted on 08/03/2012 8:17:47 AM PDT by TheConservativeParty (O.M.G. Obummer Must Go / LUV my GOV Scott Walker)
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To: LS
You know oversampling has been done for decades by the MSM. It's more blatant this time and they aren't even trying to cover up the "+19 (!!!!) Dem sample".
Make more of an effort to make it widely known that all the public gets is the end numbers, not how the numbers were obtained.
Simply calling them out on it should help somewhat. If nothing else it negates the presumed effectiveness/influence of such polls as they'll be ignored from now on.

Ultimately this is nothing more than one more lie on top of a stack of lies and people don't like being lied to.

25 posted on 08/03/2012 8:21:22 AM PDT by philman_36 (Pride breakfasted with plenty, dined with poverty, and supped with infamy. Benjamin Franklin)
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To: Smokeyblue

Did NOT know this. Thanks.


26 posted on 08/03/2012 8:25:16 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Tex-Con-Man

Dead voters always vote 100% Demwit


27 posted on 08/03/2012 8:35:30 AM PDT by TheOldLady
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To: LS
You are right, LS. You are anything BUT a "conspiracy theorist"!

Something nefarious is going on. Any of your explanations would fit, either alone or in concert.

I think the Dims are setting the country up for massive voter fraud. As one of the arms of this strategy, they need the pre-election poll numbers to look at least somewhat "right" so the outcome is convincing to the uninformed segment of the public who will then be bombarded by the thunderous outrage and lies from their allies in the media and elsewhere when they are making the final attack to steal the election.

So, they are cooking the numbers now to prep the battlefield for the shocking results later. They need a patina of legitimacy on November 7th if their widespread fraud is successful and 0bama pulls it out.

The "legal" aspects of that fraud (using out tax dollars and resources) are already being set up by the DOJ wherein they will take to court States that are close or where they lose. They will allege massive fraud or voter suppression by the GOP. With their huge armies of lawyers and friendly judges they will try and overturn the results.

It will be full chaos come November 7th. It will make 2000 look like an electoral picnic. The resulting violence will carry over into the streets this time around to try and intimidate public opinion and officials and influence the outcome. These vile people would rather burn down the country than lose their power.

28 posted on 08/03/2012 8:39:10 AM PDT by Gritty (It's either Obama and the Democrats or America. You can't have both. - Rush Limbaugh)
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To: LS

Just google Raila Odinga+free republic. There’s tons more information. None of which the media has covered. Like usual. The public at large knows nothing of this.

Barack Obama & Raila Odinga (This video could cost Obama the election MUST SEE)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2098378/posts

Obama on video campaigning for Marxist “cousin” Raila Odinga, Kenya’s “Agent of Change”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2103159/posts

The Kenya Connection [Barack Obama, Raila Odinga]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2099848/posts

Raila Odinga Motto: “Change”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2106057/posts

Obama’s Cousin & Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga Orders Arrest of Gays
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2634093/posts

Obama, Machete Thugs, Raila Odinga — will Obama call for riots if he loses?
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2100099/posts

MUST SEE VIDEO OF OBAMA IN KENYA CAMPAIGNING FOR MARXIST THUG ODINGA!!!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2101549/posts

Barack Obama & Raila Odinga REDUX
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2118212/posts

Barack Obama and His Support for Islamic Sharia Law and al Qaeda
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1975499/posts


29 posted on 08/03/2012 8:52:06 AM PDT by Smokeyblue
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To: LS

Marist, Pew, Quinnipiac, Gallup , and other polls have been wildly left for decades. The only time their numbers even come close is IF they decide to do a poll of likely voters that is close to what the last election was (the current oversample ignores the results of 2010 because they were ‘regional’ votes). Their methodology has been wrong since its inception so why would you expect results that are valid?

I never call conspiracy when stupidity is so obvious.


30 posted on 08/03/2012 9:11:55 AM PDT by Nifster
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To: Gritty

“It will be full chaos come November 7th. It will make 2000 look like an electoral picnic.”

I agree. We were told in OH that in 2004, if Bush had won by less than 100,000 votes, the Dems had lawyers everywhere ready to challenge the election. So it was critical that we got 115,000 margin-—something like one or two votes per precinct!


31 posted on 08/03/2012 9:47:57 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS

bm


32 posted on 08/04/2012 12:52:02 PM PDT by skinkinthegrass (WA DC E$tabli$hment; DNC/RNC/Unionists...Brazilian saying: "$@me Old $hit; different flie$". :^)
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