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Polling and Conspiracy (from a non-conspiracy guy)
self
| 8/3/2012
| LS
Posted on 08/03/2012 6:28:31 AM PDT by LS
As anyone on FreeRepublic will tell you, I am NOT a conspiracy theorist, and usually find common sense explanations for why things happen. Usually, history shows these are right. However, some things have happened recently that have me looking outside “common sense.”
1) Polling, except for Rasmussen and occasionally Gallup, has been wildly and utterly in the tank for Obama. Quinnipiac, one of the worst, came out today with a 9-point Obama lead (he’s at 50) using a +19 (!!!!) Dem sample. In an accurate sample, Romney wins by 1-2. This comes after the CBS poll last week with a +11 Dem sample. RCP shows that the average oversample of Dems is +6---all of which points to a convincing Romney victory, bordering on landslide. (I don’t think Romney can get above about 320 barring a miracle because of NY, CA, IL, and PA.) 2) Are these people dolts? Amateurs? Incompetent? I don’t think so. They’ve all been at it too long. 3) It could be, as my wife says, that they’ve really drunk the KoolAide and now are subconsciously manufacturing stuff without realizing it. Possible, but I think one of two other scenarios is in play:
I think they know Zero is going to lose, and lose convincingly. The state votes will be close, but uniformly against him. So, we have three possibilities, one of which WND came out with today.
*Knowing Zero is going to lose, they are jimmying results to prevent a GOP supermajority in the senate. This is plausible, but unlikely. Senate races don’t usually turn on coattails, let alone someone as weak as Romney. Most senate races are still somewhat local.
*Rather, I think what is really happening is this: knowing Zero is going to lose, the pollsters---fully in bed with the Dems now---are already setting the stage to delegitimize a Romney presidency. This is much as they tried to do with “Bush was Selected, not Elected!” They will say, on Nov. 7, “See, the election was STOLEN! Look at what a big lead Obama had in the polls, then look at what the GOP did!”
*the ugly possible facet of this is that they are deliberately setting the stage for race riots/leftist demonstrations that might in some conceivable universe permit Obama to declare martial law and somehow stay in office. This one is remote, but with this tyrant, you can’t rule it out. I go with “delegitimizing Romney.”
TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Politics/Elections; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: election; obama; polls; romney
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To: LS
I think your first two choices are at least probable. It may or may not be an effort of the businesses doing the polling, it could be as simple as unconscious biases of their employees.
However, I think there is an additional option (not an alternative) that you have missed. These are businesses. I don’t know what it is, but they are selling something. Follow the money.
21
posted on
08/03/2012 7:40:28 AM PDT
by
Darth Reardon
(No offense to drunken sailors)
To: LS
It is a vain attempt at voter suppression by (D)-dominated MSM. It is also evidence of the last gasps of their relevancy in being able to affect the outcome of any election.
Their viewership, readership, and opinion marketability is plummeting, and the power of grass-roots conservatism is defying every effort they can contrive to suppress it.
So they go to the only playbook they have ever known or have ever used in the past with some success - poll stuffing and (D)-sampling inflation.
(D)-sampling inflation is a reflection of the world within which the MSM surrounds itself. It is not reflective of the true state of the country - which is why Rasmussen's accuracy prevails over their wishful thinking.
What is interesting this time around is how easily the (D)-poll stuffing is exposed and an instant interpretation of such is instantly available.
Discrediting of the polls by virtue of their internals can happen in real time - often before the public's view is able to be sufficiently massaged to where fable becomes fact.
Used to be that back in the pre-Reagan days that MSM was the only game allowed any air time, picking winners seemed easy, and everyone belched what the NYT was saying. Not anymore.
The only ones who believe the (D)-inflated media polls are the (D)-inflated media themsleves. And no one believes THEM anymore.
Martial law and race riots need a complicit public in one context and an anger-inspired race mob in another.
When Romney wins, if there is a hint of race mob violence, there will be martial law in the big city ghettos and slums only - no where else.
Anything else is John Birch Society-style hype and fear mongering.
FReegards!
22
posted on
08/03/2012 7:51:52 AM PDT
by
Agamemnon
(Darwinism is the glue that holds liberalism together)
To: LS
The past is prologue.
Scorch the earth is all this Community Agitator knows. How far they will get or how successful they will be is unknown since the USA ain’t Kenya. But what can be surmised is they will try anything no matter how horrific if they think it will benefit them or they will do as much damage on the way out as possible.
In my book, Obama is a co-conspirator with Odinga in the murders and mayhem that took place in Kenya.
It boggles the mind that this unknown guy is actually masquerading as POTUS.
Senator Barack Obama in Kenya
Obama and Odinga: The True Story
http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/4353
SNIP
However, the underlying (more important issues) are verifiably true. In August and September 2006, Senator Barack Obama traveled to South Africa, Chad, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Chad and Kenya as a congressional delegation of one (Codel Obama) (“Codel Obama” The Hill 9/7/2006) While in Kenya, Obama consistently appeared at the side of fellow Luo Raila Odinga (“your agent for change’), who was running for President. (“Senator Rebukes Kenya’s Corruption” Chicago Sun Times 8/29/2006) Because of his African heritage, Obama was treated as a virtual “Head of State” in Kenya While campaigning with Odinga, Obama was openly critical of governmental corruption under President Mibaki –usually a fair, if undiplomatic, criticism from an objective observer.
SNIP
Obama’s partisan support for Odinga was considered so transparent, that the Kenyan Government spokesman, Alfred Matua, complained of political posturing to aid Odinga’s election chances: “It is very clear that the senator has been used as a puppet to perpetuate opposition politics,”
SNIP
Odinga’s supporters went on a rampage—burning Kikuyu homes and businesses, (“Ethnic Cleansing in Luoland” The Economist 2/7/2008) raping Kikuyu women, and murdering everyone in their path—including at least 50 Christian Kikuyu woman & children who had sought refuge in a church. They burned them alive. (“Mob Burns Kenyans Seeking Refuge In Church” CNN 1/10/2008)
“We have evidence that ODM [Odinga’s party] politicians and local leaders actively fomented some post-election violence,” Georgette Gagnon, acting Africa director for the New York based Human Rights Watch (HRW), said on Thursday.” (Violence We Fled was Planned, Say Kenyan Refugees” Ibid)
So: who is Raila Odinga that Senator Obama would expend his political capital and risk the goodwill of half the population of Kenya?
Their relationship is unclear. The BBC initially reported that Obama and Odinga were first cousins.(“Odinga Says Obama is His Cousin” 1/8/2008)
The Obama campaign has since denied a familial relationship. Raila Odinga’s father, Oginga Odinga, was leader of the “Kenya People’s Union” and perceived as a “committed socialist”
To: LS
Zero will lose.
America will win.
24
posted on
08/03/2012 8:17:47 AM PDT
by
TheConservativeParty
(O.M.G. Obummer Must Go / LUV my GOV Scott Walker)
To: LS
You know oversampling has been done for decades by the MSM. It's more blatant this time and they aren't even trying to cover up the "+19 (!!!!) Dem sample".
Make more of an effort to make it widely known that all the public gets is the end numbers, not how the numbers were obtained.
Simply
calling them out on it should help somewhat. If nothing else it negates the presumed effectiveness/influence of such polls as they'll be ignored from now on.
Ultimately this is nothing more than one more lie on top of a stack of lies and people don't like being lied to.
25
posted on
08/03/2012 8:21:22 AM PDT
by
philman_36
(Pride breakfasted with plenty, dined with poverty, and supped with infamy. Benjamin Franklin)
To: Smokeyblue
Did NOT know this. Thanks.
26
posted on
08/03/2012 8:25:16 AM PDT
by
LS
("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
To: Tex-Con-Man
Dead voters always vote 100% Demwit
To: LS
You are right, LS. You are anything BUT a "conspiracy theorist"!
Something nefarious is going on. Any of your explanations would fit, either alone or in concert.
I think the Dims are setting the country up for massive voter fraud. As one of the arms of this strategy, they need the pre-election poll numbers to look at least somewhat "right" so the outcome is convincing to the uninformed segment of the public who will then be bombarded by the thunderous outrage and lies from their allies in the media and elsewhere when they are making the final attack to steal the election.
So, they are cooking the numbers now to prep the battlefield for the shocking results later. They need a patina of legitimacy on November 7th if their widespread fraud is successful and 0bama pulls it out.
The "legal" aspects of that fraud (using out tax dollars and resources) are already being set up by the DOJ wherein they will take to court States that are close or where they lose. They will allege massive fraud or voter suppression by the GOP. With their huge armies of lawyers and friendly judges they will try and overturn the results.
It will be full chaos come November 7th. It will make 2000 look like an electoral picnic. The resulting violence will carry over into the streets this time around to try and intimidate public opinion and officials and influence the outcome. These vile people would rather burn down the country than lose their power.
28
posted on
08/03/2012 8:39:10 AM PDT
by
Gritty
(It's either Obama and the Democrats or America. You can't have both. - Rush Limbaugh)
To: LS
To: LS
Marist, Pew, Quinnipiac, Gallup , and other polls have been wildly left for decades. The only time their numbers even come close is IF they decide to do a poll of likely voters that is close to what the last election was (the current oversample ignores the results of 2010 because they were ‘regional’ votes). Their methodology has been wrong since its inception so why would you expect results that are valid?
I never call conspiracy when stupidity is so obvious.
30
posted on
08/03/2012 9:11:55 AM PDT
by
Nifster
To: Gritty
“It will be full chaos come November 7th. It will make 2000 look like an electoral picnic.”
I agree. We were told in OH that in 2004, if Bush had won by less than 100,000 votes, the Dems had lawyers everywhere ready to challenge the election. So it was critical that we got 115,000 margin-—something like one or two votes per precinct!
31
posted on
08/03/2012 9:47:57 AM PDT
by
LS
("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
To: LS
32
posted on
08/04/2012 12:52:02 PM PDT
by
skinkinthegrass
(WA DC E$tabli$hment; DNC/RNC/Unionists...Brazilian saying: "$@me Old $hit; different flie$". :^)
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