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US Factory Orders "Unexpectedly" Decline; US Car Sales "Unexpectedly" Decline ^ | August 3, 2012 | Mike Shedlock

Posted on 08/03/2012 10:18:18 AM PDT by Kaslin

The words for the day once again are "unexpectedly declined". I have a couple of examples.

The New York Times reports U.S. Factory Orders Fall Unexpectedly

New orders for factory goods unexpectedly fell in the United States in June, a fresh sign that the slowdown in the country’s manufacturing sector will probably stretch into the second half of the year.

The Commerce Department said on Thursday that new orders for manufactured goods dropped 0.5 percent during the month. Economists in a Reuters poll had forecast a rise of 0.5 percent.

American factories appear to be one of the sectors most vulnerable to Europe’s festering debt crisis. The trend in American manufacturing has appeared softer and has added to concerns the economic recovery is losing steam. The decline in new orders in June will probably mean softer output down the road, which could weigh on economic growth.
Car Sales "Somewhat Softer Than Expected"

Yesterday, Yahoo!Finance reported U.S. auto sales remain soft in July
Major automakers reported U.S. auto sales for July that were somewhat softer than expected as high U.S. unemployment and weak consumer confidence kept would-be buyers on the sidelines.

July auto sales showed the continuation of what has been a slowdown in growth since the late spring. Sales early this year shot past even the most bullish forecasts, but starting in May, the rate of improvement started to weaken.

"If we were talking in February this year and you asked me what we're going to have July, I'd say at least 14 and a half," said analyst Jesse Toprak. "But we're going to barely get to 14."

GM, the largest U.S. automaker, reported on Wednesday a 6 percent drop in July U.S. sales, while Ford posted a 4 percent drop. The smallest U.S. automaker, Chrysler Group LLC, posted a 13 percent increase.

GM and Ford both pinned their declines on lower sales to fleet customers like rental car companies. GM's fleet sales fell 41 percent, in line with the company's forecast last month.

But their overall results were still lower than some estimates. Analysts had expected better financing deals, pent-up demand and increased construction spending to offset the sluggish U.S. economy.

Toyota sales were up 26 percent to 164,898 in July. A year ago, Toyota was still grappling with major vehicle shortages stemming from the March earthquake in Japan. In a release, Toyota said customers were taking advantage of long-term, low-interest financing at low lease rates
Expect the Unexpected

Why economists could not see this coming is a mystery. Manufacturing new orders have collapsed virtually everywhere, including the US. GDP, a lagging indicator, is 1.5% annualized, well below the stall speed of 2%.

Based on new orders and anecdotal evidence from the world's largest auto parts manufacturer, I confidently predicted on July 9, Global Collapse In Auto Sales Coming Up.

On July 2, I noted US Manufacturing ISM Contracts for First Time in Three Years; New Orders and Prices Plunge; Perfect Miss: 0 of 70 Economists Polled By Bloomberg Expected Contraction

Yesterday I noted Dismal Manufacturing Numbers Worldwide; US ISM in Contraction Second Month.

Yet economists were surprised by today's "unexpected decline" in US Factory Orders and yesterday's decline in auto sales.

The surprise ought to have been that car sales and factory orders held up as well as they did.

Growing Evidence of Recession

With each economic report, it becomes more clear the US is already in recession, yet economists cannot see that yet either.

If the jobs report is miserable tomorrow, and I expect it to be, then expect economists to be surprised by that too. For Friday's job forecast ADP predicts +163,000 jobs but I'll Take the Under (Way Under).

The economic consensus for Friday is about +100,000 jobs and I will take the under on that as well. Zero to 50,000 would not surprise me in the least.

TOPICS: Business/Economy; Editorial
KEYWORDS: unexpected

1 posted on 08/03/2012 10:18:29 AM PDT by Kaslin
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To: Kaslin
They're reporting 150k jobs this morning.

This time next week it'll be adjusted downward to 90k per usual.

2 posted on 08/03/2012 10:20:44 AM PDT by skeeter
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To: Kaslin

Despite the best efforts of the Baraqqis and the MSM to control the discussion, things aren’t looking too good.

Gasoline jumped to $4/gallon here in Indiana this week also.

3 posted on 08/03/2012 10:22:06 AM PDT by nascarnation
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Comment #4 Removed by Moderator

To: Kaslin

MSNBC trying to tell a different story here...

5 posted on 08/03/2012 10:30:59 AM PDT by gov_bean_ counter (Too many thinking Freepers have left the building...)
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To: Kaslin
Manufacturing new orders have collapsed virtually everywhere

Not true.

Shipments out of the factory I work have been booming this year but they did slow in July.

6 posted on 08/03/2012 10:31:30 AM PDT by moonshot925
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To: Kaslin

7 posted on 08/03/2012 10:38:53 AM PDT by dead (I've got my eye out for Mullah Omar.)
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To: Kaslin
With every new pronouncement, the administration's economic advisers are “surprised”, leading me to think that either (a) they are lying, or (b) their indoctrination into Keynesian economics simply makes them incompetent.
8 posted on 08/03/2012 10:42:30 AM PDT by Pecos ("We hold these truths to be self-evident ..... ")
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To: skeeter
This time next week it'll be adjusted downward to 90k per usual.

June's 80K has already been downward adjusted to 60K
9 posted on 08/03/2012 10:43:53 AM PDT by Signalman
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To: Kaslin

In November, Barry will be defeated ‘unexpectedly’ in an ‘unprecedented’ and ‘surprising’ LANDSLIDE. Back to Chicago you idiots.

10 posted on 08/03/2012 10:52:52 AM PDT by Made In The USA (Can we cut the BS and just say it like it is?)
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To: Kaslin


"Unexpectedly" Compilation


The Main Stream Media seems to be constantly shocked at how poorly the American economy is doing under ObamaNomics.  Whenever poor business, house, or job news comes out, they are quick to throw on the word "unexpectedly," pretending that the economy is actually doing great, but this one time it hiccupped.  But the problem is, the poor economic news is quite expected because of President Obama's incompetence .

So, I decided to take some time and compile some of the "unexpectedlies" from the start of the year until today.  But before I begin, just remember what Albert Einstein once said (which is normally attributed to Benjamin Franklin): "Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

So, without further ado:

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Unexpectedly Falls to Six-Month Low on Job Outlook, from Bloomberg, May 31, 2011

US Q4 growth unexpectedly revised down, from EuroNews, February 25, 2011

U.S. Factory Orders Drop Unexpectedly, from Industry Week, March 24, 2011

US Services Economy Slowed Unexpectedly in March: ISM, from MSNBC, April 5, 2011

U.S. Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Jump, Reflecting Quarter-End Volatility, from Bloomberg, April 14, 2011

Core U.S. producer prices rose slightly faster than expected," from Reuters, April 14, 2011

Construction Spending in U.S. Unexpectedly Fell to Decade Low, from Bloomberg, from February 1, 2011

U.S. initial jobless claims rise unexpectedly, from Forexpros, June 23, 2011

Unexpectedly weak economic data," from Economics Newspaper, from April 2011

U.S. Economy: Goods Orders Unexpectedly Fall, Claims Drop, from Bloomberg, March 24, 2011

Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly declined in January," from Bloomberg, January 14, 2011

Initial Jobless Claims Rise Unexpectedly," from Reuters, April 28, 2011

Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly fell in December," from Bloomberg Businessweek, January 3, 2011

Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Rise to Three-Month High, from Money News, April 28, 2011

U.S. Economy: Confidence Unexpectedly Drops to 6-Month Low, from Bloomberg Businessweek, May 31, 2011

U.S. initial unemployment claims unexpectedly soars, from World Bank, May 5, 2011

Housing Starts Unexpectedly Plunge 10.6%, Pointing to More Construction Woes, from Money News, May 19, 2011

Consumer confidence falls unexpectedly in May, from USA Today, May 31, 2011

Unemployment Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Increased to 424,000 Last Week, from Bloomberg, May 26, 2011

New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly climbed to 424,000 last week," from CNBC, May 26, 2011

U.S. Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Climb, from Bloomberg, June 9, 2011

U.S. Economy: Previously Owned Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall, from Bloomberg Businessweek, May 19, 2011

US Q1 corporate profits drop unexpectedly, from Business Speculator, May 26, 2011

Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Jump on One-Time Events, from Bloomberg, May 5, 2011

Industrial production in the U.S. unexpectedly stalled in April and housing starts dropped," from Bloomberg Businessweek, May 17, 2011

In case you didn't notice, quotation marks denotes quotes from articles.

Update- More headlines and quotes:

Wall Street tumbled at Thursday’s opening bell after the government reported an unexpectedly sharp jump in unemployment claims," from MSNBC, June 23, 2011

The Federal Reserve stayed the course on monetary policy Wednesday, citing "likely" temporary factors for the unexpectedly sluggish growth in the US economy," from MSN, June 22, 2011

U.S. Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Climb, from Bloomberg, June 9, 2011

The dollar slumped on Friday after a government report showed an unexpectedly small amount of hiring in May," from MSN, June 4, 2011

The National Association of Home Builders’ sentiment index unexpectedly fell to 13 in June from 16 in May," from the Financial Times, Jue 15, 2011

The jobless rate, which is obtained from a separate household survey, unexpectedly rose to 9.1 percent in May," from Fox Philadelphia, June 3, 2011

U.S. jobless claims rises unexpectedly, from the AP, June 9, 2011

Consumer confidence unexpectedly decreased in May," from Bloomberg, June 13, 2011

An unexpected jump in claims for unemployment benefits," from the AP, June 23, 2011

And a few that, instead of using "unexpected," use "more than expected:"

Jobless claims rise more than expected, Reuters, June 23, 2011

Economy cools more than expected, rattling stock market, from the Christian Science Monitor, June 1, 2011

US Economy Growing Slower Than Expected, from the Money Times, June 23, 2011

US home sales fall more than expected, from the Financial Times, March 21, 2011

U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected in March, from MSNBC, May 11, 2011

US GDP Growth Slows More Than Expected, from Sky News, April 28, 2011

Jobless Claims Rise More Than Expected, from Industry Week, March 10, 2011



11 posted on 08/03/2012 11:18:48 AM PDT by preacher (Communism has only killed 100 million people: Let's give it another chance!)
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To: Kaslin

The Titanic “unexpectedly declined”. This disaster, we saw coming years ago. The election of Obama hastened it.

12 posted on 08/03/2012 12:54:20 PM PDT by TexasRepublic (Socialism is the gospel of envy and the religion of thieves)
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To: Kaslin
We have often wallked down this street before.....

13 posted on 08/03/2012 12:58:22 PM PDT by Iron Munro ("Jiggle the Handle for Barry!")
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