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Posted on 08/03/2012 9:07:07 PM PDT by kingattax
Political scientist Douglas Hibbs looks at two factors when forecasting presidential elections: a) per capita real disposable personal income over the incumbent president’s term, and b) cumulative U.S. military fatalities in overseas conflicts.
And he’s predicting a near-landslide win for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama, with Obama losing by about as big a margin in 2012 as he won back in 2008. Under Hibbs Bread and Peace model, Romney wins 52.5% to Obama’s 47.5%.
(Excerpt) Read more at aei-ideas.org ...
I’ve known this for a long time. Have told my family and friends that Zero’s going to get his rear handed to him in a historic wipeout, and the usual twats are going to cry wasism.
Ok. Why I certainly hope Obama loses, I wouldn’t really call 53 - 47 a landslide. I think that was the same margin by which Obama won. Reagan v. Mondale — now that was a landslide....not going to happen this year. I predict a razor thin win either way.
IMO/FWIW/YMVV/ETC...
The gen public has an attention span for politics of a week at absolute best. Very little of anything happening now will ultimately matter for anyone whose mind isn’t already made up. I used to think differently, but my faith in the intelligence of the American voter is shot.
The candidate that throws the most believable dirt in the last 7 days (really the last three) will win by the margin of ‘believability’ in his attack ads. So if in the last week you don’t see Team Romney going full bore Pit Bull, you’ll know that this has all been bread and circuses.
Reading Hibb’s entire paper, I get the sense he is not
thrilled with what his model is telling him. He even
mentions that he’s a big fan of betting markets, and they
show an Obama win. But the model says what it says — even
he kind of gently suggests Romney is another stiff, just
like Dole and Gore.
Outstanding picture ! That’s a keeper....
That must be something like a proverbial butt-kicking.
Pew Research knows the Dems are in deep do-do, and are working hard to compensate:
Sample Size:
459 Republicans
813 Democrats
599 Independents
“I certainly hope Obama loses, I wouldn’t really call 53 - 47 a landslide.”
It will be a landslide...even at that 53 - 47 result. Consider this...Romney is a ‘weak’ candidate, from a conservative point of view. That being the case, 53 - 57 is a landslide. Now, what really makes it a landslide...first off, the margin may well be a lot more than that. Second off, the Senate will be in Republican control...and there will be enough conservative (say Tea Party) candidates winning to affect the way the senate thinks. Likewise for the House. A veritable landslide.
Think Chick-Fil-A...that was about the people who care being fed up with the statis quo...
That's why there is always talk of an "October Surprise". Preferably, the LAST week in October. Can't wait to see what the Bamster has cooked up for us.
If the election is close you can bet hordes of election-stealing lawyers will be launched like flying monkeys to win it for the corrupt Wiz "by any means necessary."
JoeProBono did an EXCELLENT job on it!!
I’ve known this for a long time too if “It’s the economy, stupid” is still the underlying focus of the voters. The worry is that it isn’t - that too many have accepted the “new normal” or are too scared of losing their government bennies or are just idiots who believe all the garbage spewed by the media.
Of particular concern are those who vote in presidential elections because it is “their duty” but don’t really follow politics and only vote based on the way the media implies that “smart people” should vote. Many (not all) of these voters are women.
Popular vote doesn't mean much. You have to look at the Electro College results. George W. Bush lost the popular vote in 2000.
I’ve seen a resolve in the grown-ups I know this time around. By grown-ups I mean people who manage their own lives. None of them are afraid this time around to speak their minds about how bad Zero is, and I think it’ll rub off on the younger folks.
My prediction is biggest landslide ever, and biggest whining commie rats ever.
By facts & figures of Obama’s performance he should indeed loses in a landslide. But what theses people forget is that Obama’s voter base has been bought with The tax payer dollars.
No matter how preposterously he mishandles and indeed represses the American economy he has paid off his supporters.
By facts & figures of Obama’s performance he should indeed loses in a landslide. But what theses people forget is that Obama’s voter base has been bought with The tax payer dollars.
No matter how desasterously he mishandles and indeed represses the American economy he has paid off his supporters.
It would be without precedent for the popular vote margin to be so disparate and the ‘winner’ there to fail in the electoral college. Bush/Gore popular margin was very close, 47.9% vs 48.4%. 1/2% is a far cry from 6%.
If he was John McCain or John F. Kerry, he'd be a deadman walking with an unsalvageable reelection bid. But he's not, he's the "historical" candidate.
Except Gore & Dole never signed a check on the front. In addition to those two, the Bushes & BJ Clinton also never ran a business successfully. At least Romney has that going for him, which is a quarter of century of experience running a business successfully.
Obama won states he wasn't supposed to (and in all likelihood didn't), like North Carolina and Indiana. That ended a GOP streak in the latter that went back to LBJ!
53-47 = 300+EV win, up to and including states like CO, IA and WI. It wouldn't just be an '04 map, it would be '04 plus WI & NH, and possibly even inroads into blue territory that a GOP candidate hasn't made since '88, perhaps winning razor-close ones in MI & PA. That's a landslide.
"Popular vote doesn't mean much. You have to look at the Electro College results. George W. Bush lost the popular vote in 2000."
And yet look at the last 53-47ish election won by a Republican:
53-47 is such an advantage in the PV that it dictates certain blue states go red simply because there isn't enough PV to account for the margin in '08 or even '04 red states! Add in a very favorable EV reapportionment for the GOP in 2010, and this is a landslide within reach. Minus Cali, of course -- hopeless.
I'll settle for the win in my sig...
That's no landslide, but it'll do.
Of course, given such a result, what will Congress look like? It had better look very red, or else the new president will start reaching across the aisle to get things done
, don't you know. That's what I fear.
Since when is 52.5% vs 47.5% a landslide? How old is this guy?
A landslide is close to 60% vs 40%.
IMO, we’re not headed quite that far, but it’s going to be a route unless the GOPe and Romney do their damnedest to blow it.
And the GOP wants control of the WH with all of it's perks.
Both are going to be very motivated to win this.
You know, I tend to agree with you. I have observed what the party has done over the last 16 years though, and it isn’t encouraging if you like winning by big margins.
Dole, Bush, Bush, McCain... None of these guys was a barn-burner, and we’ve got another Maverick on our hands right now.
Lefty guys have not taken us to the promised land in a big way since Reagan left office, but the GOPe has no interest in having another Reagan. Evidently it was so traumatic him not listening to them, that they can’t stomach a repeat.
Romney is taking it to Obama right now. I think the RNC has it’s heart and soul in this, because he’s their cup of tea.
So he wins. Then what? Ug...
It’s going to be a long four years.
With the increase of Teaparty Senators and House members, we are going to make the RNC very uncomfortable.
If Romney wants 2 terms, he is going to have to deal with us.
The danger here is he and they will not go quietly. Like a child in a temper tantrum he will do so much damage to national security and the economy before he is officially removed from office. Lets see if he will be forwarned
There are a couple of mitigating factors:
1.) The MSM smear campaign has not yet kicked into full gear.
2.) The GOP is not called The Stupid Party for nothing.
I appreciate the thought, but removing an incumbent from your own party is almost impossible. With the primary and caucus rules as they are today, I don’t think there’s any chance at all Romney would be cut off at one term by his own party.
The Teaparty owes nothing to the RNC.
There’s a ton of smoke swirling around right now. The state by state EV count is all that matters and right now it doesn’t look good for Romney:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2914659/posts
I don’t see Romney winning California, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Vermont, Connecticut, or Maine. Perhaps Virginia as well.
I don’t see him getting NY either.
Definitely. I can’t believe I forgot to put them in.
This is the most pronounced economic and social downturn in generations, and my model shows a clear landslide loss for the Kenyan.
Obama will not be within 8 pts of Romney in the last 7 days.
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