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Economic forecasting model predicts Obama will lose in near-landslide
American Enterprise Institute ^ | August 2, 2012 | James Pethokoukis

Posted on 08/03/2012 9:07:07 PM PDT by kingattax

Political scientist Douglas Hibbs looks at two factors when forecasting presidential elections: a) per capita real disposable personal income over the incumbent president’s term, and b) cumulative U.S. military fatalities in overseas conflicts.

And he’s predicting a near-landslide win for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama, with Obama losing by about as big a margin in 2012 as he won back in 2008. Under Hibbs Bread and Peace model, Romney wins 52.5% to Obama’s 47.5%.

(Excerpt) Read more at aei-ideas.org ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; landslide; predictions

1 posted on 08/03/2012 9:07:16 PM PDT by kingattax
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To: kingattax

I’ve known this for a long time. Have told my family and friends that Zero’s going to get his rear handed to him in a historic wipeout, and the usual twats are going to cry wasism.


2 posted on 08/03/2012 9:11:17 PM PDT by MarineBrat (Better dead than red!)
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To: kingattax

Ok. Why I certainly hope Obama loses, I wouldn’t really call 53 - 47 a landslide. I think that was the same margin by which Obama won. Reagan v. Mondale — now that was a landslide....not going to happen this year. I predict a razor thin win either way.


3 posted on 08/03/2012 9:11:44 PM PDT by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters of Freedom, Committee of Correspondence)
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To: All
(A BIG hat tip for the pic to Freeper Joe Pro Bono!!)


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4 posted on 08/03/2012 9:14:46 PM PDT by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
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To: kingattax

IMO/FWIW/YMVV/ETC...

The gen public has an attention span for politics of a week at absolute best. Very little of anything happening now will ultimately matter for anyone whose mind isn’t already made up. I used to think differently, but my faith in the intelligence of the American voter is shot.

The candidate that throws the most believable dirt in the last 7 days (really the last three) will win by the margin of ‘believability’ in his attack ads. So if in the last week you don’t see Team Romney going full bore Pit Bull, you’ll know that this has all been bread and circuses.


5 posted on 08/03/2012 9:19:03 PM PDT by Norm Lenhart
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To: kingattax
From the article:

Reading Hibb’s entire paper, I get the sense he is not
thrilled with what his model is telling him. He even
mentions that he’s a big fan of betting markets, and they
show an Obama win. But the model says what it says — even
he kind of gently suggests Romney is another stiff, just
like Dole and Gore.

6 posted on 08/03/2012 9:23:18 PM PDT by Jyotishi (Seeking the truth, a fact at a time.)
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To: musicman; JoeProBono

Outstanding picture ! That’s a keeper....


7 posted on 08/03/2012 9:24:47 PM PDT by Squantos
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To: kingattax
Obama will lose in near-landslide

That must be something like a proverbial butt-kicking.

Pew Research knows the Dems are in deep do-do, and are working hard to compensate:

Sample Size:
459 Republicans
813 Democrats
599 Independents

Poll Farce: Pew Oversamples Democrats to Boost Obama

8 posted on 08/03/2012 9:25:20 PM PDT by meadsjn (Sarah 2012, or sooner)
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To: 3Fingas; MarineBrat; kingattax

“I certainly hope Obama loses, I wouldn’t really call 53 - 47 a landslide.”

It will be a landslide...even at that 53 - 47 result. Consider this...Romney is a ‘weak’ candidate, from a conservative point of view. That being the case, 53 - 57 is a landslide. Now, what really makes it a landslide...first off, the margin may well be a lot more than that. Second off, the Senate will be in Republican control...and there will be enough conservative (say Tea Party) candidates winning to affect the way the senate thinks. Likewise for the House. A veritable landslide.

Think Chick-Fil-A...that was about the people who care being fed up with the statis quo...


9 posted on 08/03/2012 9:36:07 PM PDT by GGpaX4DumpedTea (I am a Tea Party descendant...steeped in the Constitutional Republic given to us by the Founders.)
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To: Norm Lenhart
The candidate that throws the most believable dirt in the last 7 days (really the last three) will win by the margin of ‘believability’ in his attack ads.

That's why there is always talk of an "October Surprise". Preferably, the LAST week in October. Can't wait to see what the Bamster has cooked up for us.

10 posted on 08/03/2012 9:47:05 PM PDT by boatbums (God is ready to assume full responsibility for the life wholly yielded to Him.)
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To: kingattax
And some naive conservatives will believe it. Don't be lulled into complacency. We need to work like hell right up to election day to assure a Republican victory no matter how promising the polls and pundits say it is for our side.

If the election is close you can bet hordes of election-stealing lawyers will be launched like flying monkeys to win it for the corrupt Wiz "by any means necessary."

11 posted on 08/03/2012 9:52:05 PM PDT by Bernard Marx
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To: Squantos; JoeProBono

JoeProBono did an EXCELLENT job on it!!


12 posted on 08/03/2012 9:52:27 PM PDT by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
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To: MarineBrat

I’ve known this for a long time too if “It’s the economy, stupid” is still the underlying focus of the voters. The worry is that it isn’t - that too many have accepted the “new normal” or are too scared of losing their government bennies or are just idiots who believe all the garbage spewed by the media.

Of particular concern are those who vote in presidential elections because it is “their duty” but don’t really follow politics and only vote based on the way the media implies that “smart people” should vote. Many (not all) of these voters are women.


13 posted on 08/03/2012 10:14:39 PM PDT by OrangeHoof (Our economy won't heal until one particular black man is unemployed.)
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To: 3Fingas
"....I wouldn’t really call 53 - 47 a landslide"

Popular vote doesn't mean much. You have to look at the Electro College results. George W. Bush lost the popular vote in 2000.

14 posted on 08/03/2012 10:18:18 PM PDT by Buffalo Head (Illigitimi non carborundum)
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To: OrangeHoof

I’ve seen a resolve in the grown-ups I know this time around. By grown-ups I mean people who manage their own lives. None of them are afraid this time around to speak their minds about how bad Zero is, and I think it’ll rub off on the younger folks.

My prediction is biggest landslide ever, and biggest whining commie rats ever.


15 posted on 08/03/2012 10:38:44 PM PDT by MarineBrat (Better dead than red!)
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To: MarineBrat

By facts & figures of Obama’s performance he should indeed loses in a landslide. But what theses people forget is that Obama’s voter base has been bought with The tax payer dollars.

No matter how preposterously he mishandles and indeed represses the American economy he has paid off his supporters.


16 posted on 08/03/2012 10:38:55 PM PDT by Monorprise
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To: MarineBrat

By facts & figures of Obama’s performance he should indeed loses in a landslide. But what theses people forget is that Obama’s voter base has been bought with The tax payer dollars.

No matter how desasterously he mishandles and indeed represses the American economy he has paid off his supporters.


17 posted on 08/03/2012 10:39:17 PM PDT by Monorprise
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To: Buffalo Head

It would be without precedent for the popular vote margin to be so disparate and the ‘winner’ there to fail in the electoral college. Bush/Gore popular margin was very close, 47.9% vs 48.4%. 1/2% is a far cry from 6%.


18 posted on 08/03/2012 10:53:32 PM PDT by newzjunkey (Pontius Pilate 'voters' are arrogant, delusional, lilly-livered collaborators.)
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To: kingattax; All
We'll learn from the margin of Obama's win, in spite of this expectation based on economic data, just how racist (pro affirmative action) our country is.

If he was John McCain or John F. Kerry, he'd be a deadman walking with an unsalvageable reelection bid. But he's not, he's the "historical" candidate.

19 posted on 08/03/2012 10:56:52 PM PDT by newzjunkey (Pontius Pilate 'voters' are arrogant, delusional, lilly-livered collaborators.)
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To: Jyotishi

Except Gore & Dole never signed a check on the front. In addition to those two, the Bushes & BJ Clinton also never ran a business successfully. At least Romney has that going for him, which is a quarter of century of experience running a business successfully.


20 posted on 08/03/2012 11:02:16 PM PDT by entropy12 (Hate is the most insidious emotion, it will encourage cancer cells in your body.)
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To: 3Fingas
"Why I certainly hope Obama loses, I wouldn’t really call 53 - 47 a landslide. I think that was the same margin by which Obama won."

Obama won states he wasn't supposed to (and in all likelihood didn't), like North Carolina and Indiana. That ended a GOP streak in the latter that went back to LBJ!

53-47 = 300+EV win, up to and including states like CO, IA and WI. It wouldn't just be an '04 map, it would be '04 plus WI & NH, and possibly even inroads into blue territory that a GOP candidate hasn't made since '88, perhaps winning razor-close ones in MI & PA. That's a landslide.

21 posted on 08/03/2012 11:26:48 PM PDT by StAnDeliver (=)
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To: Buffalo Head
"....I wouldn’t really call 53 - 47 a landslide"

"Popular vote doesn't mean much. You have to look at the Electro College results. George W. Bush lost the popular vote in 2000."

And yet look at the last 53-47ish election won by a Republican:

53-47 is such an advantage in the PV that it dictates certain blue states go red simply because there isn't enough PV to account for the margin in '08 or even '04 red states! Add in a very favorable EV reapportionment for the GOP in 2010, and this is a landslide within reach. Minus Cali, of course -- hopeless.

I'll settle for the win in my sig...

22 posted on 08/03/2012 11:42:51 PM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NC, FL, VA, OH, NV o/r IA = 271EV)
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To: kingattax; Revolting cat!; Slings and Arrows; JoeProBono

23 posted on 08/04/2012 1:14:57 AM PDT by a fool in paradise (Eric Holder's NAACP rally against the voter ID laws required the press to bring govt issue photo ID.)
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To: kingattax
Under Hibbs Bread and Peace model, Romney wins 52.5% to Obama’s 47.5%.

That's no landslide, but it'll do.

Of course, given such a result, what will Congress look like? It had better look very red, or else the new president will start reaching across the aisle to get things done, don't you know. That's what I fear.

24 posted on 08/04/2012 1:25:32 AM PDT by cynwoody
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To: kingattax

Since when is 52.5% vs 47.5% a landslide? How old is this guy?

A landslide is close to 60% vs 40%.

IMO, we’re not headed quite that far, but it’s going to be a route unless the GOPe and Romney do their damnedest to blow it.


25 posted on 08/04/2012 2:32:02 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Vote Obama he's unqualified on so many subjects, citizenship, history, economics, racism, allies...)
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To: DoughtyOne
No, unlike McCain, Romney wants to be President.

And the GOP wants control of the WH with all of it's perks.

Both are going to be very motivated to win this.

26 posted on 08/04/2012 2:39:48 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: fortheDeclaration

You know, I tend to agree with you. I have observed what the party has done over the last 16 years though, and it isn’t encouraging if you like winning by big margins.

Dole, Bush, Bush, McCain... None of these guys was a barn-burner, and we’ve got another Maverick on our hands right now.

Lefty guys have not taken us to the promised land in a big way since Reagan left office, but the GOPe has no interest in having another Reagan. Evidently it was so traumatic him not listening to them, that they can’t stomach a repeat.

Romney is taking it to Obama right now. I think the RNC has it’s heart and soul in this, because he’s their cup of tea.

So he wins. Then what? Ug...

It’s going to be a long four years.


27 posted on 08/04/2012 3:05:47 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Vote Obama he's unqualified on so many subjects, citizenship, history, economics, racism, allies...)
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To: kingattax
“Landslide”? Looks to close to call actually and let's not get to over confident at this point. Statistics are great for an electorate that is informed and involved but the US population falls for empty platitudes like...”Change” so I would not go so far as to predict a Romney victory. If he wins, it will be very close because...we ARE that stupid to put this amateur back in the White House.
28 posted on 08/04/2012 4:09:34 AM PDT by Netz (Netz)
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To: DoughtyOne
One problem at a time my friend.

With the increase of Teaparty Senators and House members, we are going to make the RNC very uncomfortable.

If Romney wants 2 terms, he is going to have to deal with us.

29 posted on 08/04/2012 4:25:41 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: kingattax

The danger here is he and they will not go quietly. Like a child in a temper tantrum he will do so much damage to national security and the economy before he is officially removed from office. Lets see if he will be forwarned


30 posted on 08/04/2012 4:38:21 AM PDT by ronnie raygun (bb)
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To: kingattax
My response is "Don't count your chickens..."

There are a couple of mitigating factors:

1.) The MSM smear campaign has not yet kicked into full gear.

2.) The GOP is not called The Stupid Party for nothing.

31 posted on 08/04/2012 5:12:15 AM PDT by sima_yi ( Reporting live from the far North)
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To: fortheDeclaration

I appreciate the thought, but removing an incumbent from your own party is almost impossible. With the primary and caucus rules as they are today, I don’t think there’s any chance at all Romney would be cut off at one term by his own party.


32 posted on 08/04/2012 9:28:43 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Vote Obama he's unqualified on so many subjects, citizenship, history, economics, racism, allies...)
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To: DoughtyOne
They are always afraid of a strong competitor rising up within the Party.

The Teaparty owes nothing to the RNC.

33 posted on 08/04/2012 12:03:45 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: fortheDeclaration
They are always afraid of a strong competitor rising up within the Party. 

And they should be.  You have to garner both the support of your rank and file members, as well as your large contributors.  You don't generally want a rogue.  But when you swing so far that you no longer can keep your rank and file in the party, you've got to re-evaluate your strategies.  The party simply refuses to face reality.  It's candidates are not sparking the kind of support that will win elections.  If you can't beat the likes of Gore, Kerry, and Obama (for heaven's sake) by wide margins then you're definitely failing.  These three elections should have been blow-outs.  Instead we barely scrape by, and folks like me so angry at the leadership, we're thinking of leaving the party for good.  It does not support my beliefs.  Truth be told, it's not supporting the beliefs of any devoted Conservative.

The Teaparty owes nothing to the RNC.


If something I said made you believe I thought it did, it was unintentional.  I don't believe it, so I wouldn't try to out-right say it or imply it.

If the Tea Party were to go formal, start lofting candidates under it's own banner, it would have to register in all fifty states.  Then it would have to compete with another party that likes to think of itself as the true representative of good values for America.  A good number of people would remain with that other party.  The result would be a unified Left, and a splintered Right trying to vie for votes.

My comments were intended to address this reality without going into detail.  If you change the Republican party from within, and change it's leadership and it's goals, it's better than starting a formal third party.  At least that's my take on it.

The heart and soul of the party could still remain the Tea Party group.  This seems to be what is taking place right now.  I'm all for it.

34 posted on 08/04/2012 12:33:27 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Vote Obama he's unqualified on so many subjects, citizenship, history, economics, racism, allies...)
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To: Norm Lenhart

There’s a ton of smoke swirling around right now. The state by state EV count is all that matters and right now it doesn’t look good for Romney:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2914659/posts


35 posted on 08/04/2012 2:46:29 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: StAnDeliver

I don’t see Romney winning California, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Vermont, Connecticut, or Maine. Perhaps Virginia as well.


36 posted on 08/04/2012 2:54:33 PM PDT by EEGator
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To: EEGator

I don’t see him getting NY either.


37 posted on 08/04/2012 3:02:15 PM PDT by RetiredArmy (You can almost hear the footsteps of Jesus. He is right at the door!)
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To: RetiredArmy

Definitely. I can’t believe I forgot to put them in.


38 posted on 08/04/2012 3:04:58 PM PDT by EEGator
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To: kingattax

This is the most pronounced economic and social downturn in generations, and my model shows a clear landslide loss for the Kenyan.


39 posted on 08/04/2012 3:34:41 PM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer (The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.)
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To: DoughtyOne
I think the nucleus of a new Party is forming, if the RNC continues to waffle, they will fade like the Whigs did.
40 posted on 08/04/2012 4:54:01 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Norm Lenhart

Obama will not be within 8 pts of Romney in the last 7 days.


41 posted on 08/05/2012 8:45:23 PM PDT by Tennessean4Bush (An optimist believes we live in the best of all possible worlds. A pessimist fears this is true.)
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