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The Coming Obama Landslide?
thedailybeast ^ | Aug. 4 | Michael Tomasky

Posted on 08/04/2012 7:25:18 AM PDT by Alistair Stratford IV

The Coming Obama Landslide?

Liberals don’t want to jinx it. It terrifies the right. And the press would prefer a nail-biter. But the fact is that finding Romney’s path to victory is getting harder every day.

There’s a secret lurking behind everything you’re reading about the upcoming election, a secret that all political insiders know—or should—but few are talking about, most likely because it takes the drama out of the whole business. The secret is the electoral college, and the fact is that the more you look at it, the more you come to conclude that Mitt Romney has to draw an inside straight like you’ve never ever seen in a movie to win this thing. This is especially true now that it seems as if Pennsylvania isn’t really up for grabs. Romney’s paths to 270 are few.

First, let’s discuss Pennsylvania. There has been good reason for Democrats to sweat this state. True, Obama won it handily in 2008, by 10 points. But it’s a state that is older and whiter and more working-class than most of America. Obama benefited from all the unique circumstances of 2008 that helped him across the country, but if ever there were a state where the “well, we gave the black guy a chance and he blew it” meme might catch on, it’s the Keystone State.

But the jobless rate there is 7.5 percent, well below the national average. Democratic voter registration has held its own.

(Excerpt) Read more at thedailybeast.com ...


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1 posted on 08/04/2012 7:25:20 AM PDT by Alistair Stratford IV
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To: Alistair Stratford IV

I’m going to save this idiotic analysis to use as an example in the future of what’s wrong with the stupid red-blue electoral look at American politics.


2 posted on 08/04/2012 7:28:24 AM PDT by ElkGroveDan (My tagline is in the shop.)
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To: Alistair Stratford IV
but if ever there were a state where the “well, we gave the black guy a chance and he blew it” meme might catch on, it’s the Keystone State.

Stopped reading right there. Absolutely zero credibility to this individual.

3 posted on 08/04/2012 7:28:52 AM PDT by Future Snake Eater (CrossFit.com)
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To: Alistair Stratford IV

Now here is a liberal who believes the rigged polls. After the election he’ll be writing about how the election was stolen.

Liberalism is a mental disease


4 posted on 08/04/2012 7:30:00 AM PDT by reefdiver (Shoeless John Roberts, An American Tragedy.)
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To: Alistair Stratford IV

Those racist Pennsylvanians!


5 posted on 08/04/2012 7:31:06 AM PDT by Apparatchik (If you find yourself in a confusing situation, simply laugh knowingly and walk away - Jim Ignatowski)
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To: Alistair Stratford IV

...the jobless rate there is 7.5 percent, well below the national average.

Stopped reading right there...


6 posted on 08/04/2012 7:31:27 AM PDT by Paisan
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To: Alistair Stratford IV
OIC, this must be the “landslide” based on polls where Dems are oversampled in these swing states.

Yeah, sure, we believe Barry is going to win in a landslide; this must be why Harry Reid is trying desperately to get traction on his bogus assertions that Romney is a tax cheat with no evidence and phantom Bain employees.

FUBO!

7 posted on 08/04/2012 7:31:50 AM PDT by Artcore
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To: Alistair Stratford IV

In Pennsy, it’s the cities vs. everywhere else.

Last election, there were Obama offices all over the barrios and black neighborhoods. Stickers & posters all over the place. Haven’t seen quite so many this time around.

In addition, there’s hope the voter id law suppresses fraud.


8 posted on 08/04/2012 7:33:13 AM PDT by P.O.E. (Pray for America)
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To: reefdiver

Yep, garbage in garbage out...


9 posted on 08/04/2012 7:33:40 AM PDT by Alistair Stratford IV (Keep calm and carry on)
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To: Alistair Stratford IV; John Semmens

Is John Semmens using a new pen name?


10 posted on 08/04/2012 7:35:27 AM PDT by liberalh8ter (If Barack has a memory like a steel trap, why can't he remember what the Constitution says?)
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To: Alistair Stratford IV

This brilliant analysis must have been written by Megan McCain


11 posted on 08/04/2012 7:36:05 AM PDT by bigbob
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To: Future Snake Eater

Well, it’s the Daily Beast after all.


12 posted on 08/04/2012 7:36:24 AM PDT by Olog-hai
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Wow, I'm glad The Daily Beast is on top of this election coverage, otherwise I'd have to rely on politically biased sources. Thanks Alistair Stratford IV.
The secret is the electoral college, and the fact is that the more you look at it, the more you come to conclude that Mitt Romney has to draw an inside straight like you've never ever seen in a movie to win this thing. This is especially true now that it seems as if Pennsylvania isn't really up for grabs. Romney's paths to 270 are few.
Thanks DB, I'd never heard of this "electoral college" thing before.


13 posted on 08/04/2012 7:40:01 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: Alistair Stratford IV
Photobucket Photobucket
14 posted on 08/04/2012 7:46:44 AM PDT by ontap
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To: Alistair Stratford IV
About the Author
Newsweek/Daily Beast special correspondent Michael Tomasky is also editor of Democracy: A Journal of Ideas, yada, yada.
In his spare time, he enjoys modern art, gourmet cooking, and consuming lots of hallucinogens, obviously.
15 posted on 08/04/2012 7:47:13 AM PDT by meadsjn (Sarah 2012, or sooner)
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To: Alistair Stratford IV

From the same people who decry the electoral college when the vote is close (as in 2000...). Thanks for the laugh.


16 posted on 08/04/2012 7:49:14 AM PDT by bcsco
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To: Alistair Stratford IV

Was this dude getting stoned with Ted before writing this? Wow, that “Mind Rape” weed was really strong.

Even if Obama fixes the election, he will probably lose. With the new census, his “lock” states have fewer electoral votes than they did four years ago. The GOP “lock” states gained electoral votes

Which means Romney just needs to turn a few states over in 2012 to win. If Romney gets either Ohio or Florida...he wins. If Romney were to take New Mexico....Obama is toast...because if Romney can win there...he can take other states Obama won in ‘08

This writer is smoking something wicked, for sure


17 posted on 08/04/2012 7:51:43 AM PDT by SeminoleCounty (Just because someone has an "R" next to their name, does not make them a Conservative)
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To: Alistair Stratford IV

What drug is this poor slob on? I need some of it.


18 posted on 08/04/2012 8:05:48 AM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: Alistair Stratford IV

“...There’s a secret lurking ... The secret is the electoral college...”
-
To whom is the electoral college “a secret”?


19 posted on 08/04/2012 8:07:22 AM PDT by Repeal The 17th (We have met the enemy and he is us.)
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To: Alistair Stratford IV
Democratic voter registration [in Pennsylvania] has held its own.

The dead, multiple voters and imaginary people (Mickey Mouse, etc.).....

20 posted on 08/04/2012 8:07:49 AM PDT by jeffc (Welcome to the United Socialist States of America)
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To: meadsjn

And the company of girly males.


21 posted on 08/04/2012 8:08:18 AM PDT by RightWingConspirator (Obamanation--the most corrupt regime since Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe)
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To: Alistair Stratford IV

Until Romney starts polling consistent leads in swing states (enough to carry 270+ EVs), do not be too dismissive of the analysis. Preaching to the choir will not get Romney elected POTUS.


22 posted on 08/04/2012 8:08:27 AM PDT by sefarkas (Why vote Democrat Lite?)
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To: sefarkas

Agree!!!


23 posted on 08/04/2012 8:11:31 AM PDT by GoCards (I am a Hobbit)
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To: Alistair Stratford IV

Mindcandy for the intellectually bankrupt partisans on the left...bitters clingers to hope and change.


24 posted on 08/04/2012 8:11:42 AM PDT by Hotlanta Mike (Resurrect the House Committee on Un-American Activities (HUAC)...before there is no America!)
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To: Alistair Stratford IV

“There’s a secret lurking behind everything you’re reading about the upcoming election, a secret that all political insiders know—or should—but few are talking about, most likely because it takes the drama out of the whole business.”

The secret is obama has chosen to have our votes counted in Spain.

All they have to do is keep up the rhetoric and make sure the polls taken of adults and registered voters show obama winning, even slightly.

And it doesn’t help us that more and more Republicans are identifying themselves as Independents, myself included. So that mean Republicans are under sampled even in polls of likely voters.

They can claim most I’s went for obama and pull off the biggest voter fraud in history.


25 posted on 08/04/2012 8:12:09 AM PDT by Heart of Georgia (Boston's mayor is anti-Christian and anti-free speech.)
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To: ElkGroveDan

Look at the 2010 election....R gain 63 seats, but also look at some seats demholes held. Career dems in ultra safe districtsbthatbnormally won by 20 or 30 points only winning by 10 or 15. Likewise, dem that usually won by 15-20 winning by single digits - barney fwank for instance. And of course those that often cruised to 10 point victories barely holding on. So nationally there was a 10 point swing...so there’s no way dems win Indiana again. So take the 2008 numbers and move 5 pct min from D to R! There’s your baseline


26 posted on 08/04/2012 8:13:58 AM PDT by wny
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To: Hotlanta Mike

If you read some of Michael Tomasky other columns... he thinks that Mitt is an ultra-conservative. The guy is delusional.


27 posted on 08/04/2012 8:14:11 AM PDT by fireman15 (Check your facts before making ignorant statements.)
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To: Repeal The 17th
To whom is the electoral college “a secret”?
That would be anyone who went through the public education system in the last 30-40 years or so.
28 posted on 08/04/2012 8:17:24 AM PDT by Johnny B.
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To: Alistair Stratford IV
But the retirement rate is 7.5 percent . . .

Retired people and welfare rats don't count as 'unemployed'.

29 posted on 08/04/2012 8:23:10 AM PDT by sportutegrl
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To: Alistair Stratford IV
just dropped by this jerks website...he needs to read his messages..I was tempted to sign up and then decided against that...smart move..
He is one big LIBERAL loser..won't waste time reading anything else from him and I can't stand newsweek, they are ‘has been’ as far as I'm concerned..

It Saturday...time to enjoy the great out doors...

30 posted on 08/04/2012 8:27:01 AM PDT by haircutter
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To: Apparatchik

CAREFUL THERE BUDDY!!!!

many on here from PENNSYLVANIA


31 posted on 08/04/2012 8:28:26 AM PDT by haircutter
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To: Alistair Stratford IV

“First, let’s discuss Pennsylvania.”

No. First, let’s discuss the ‘change’ that never happened.

In 2008, the voters wanted ‘change’, so they voted for Obama. They didn’t get it.

Assuming they haven’t CHANGEd their minds, it follows that they will vote for Romney, because now HE is the one who represents a ‘change’.


32 posted on 08/04/2012 8:30:55 AM PDT by Walrus (Restoring America starts today! Let's roll!)
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To: Alistair Stratford IV

Quote from the article:
“There’s a secret lurking behind everything you’re reading about the upcoming election, a secret that all political insiders know—or should—but few are talking about, most likely because it takes the drama out of the whole business. The secret is the electoral college, and the fact is that the more you look at it, the more you come to conclude that Mitt Romney has to draw an inside straight like you’ve never ever seen in a movie to win this thing. This is especially true now that it seems as if Pennsylvania isn’t really up for grabs. Romney’s paths to 270 are few.”

I do believe the 2012 election will be razor-close in the electoral college. If Romney wins, it may as close as 270-268 — and only if Obama doesn’t “peel off” an electoral vote in Nebraska (which assigns electoral votes by congressional district, i.e., NE is NOT a “winner take all” state). This would produce a 269-269 tie and throw things into the House.

There are a lot of folks here on FR just a-whistlin’ past the graveyard. Even when the source is considered, this article is troubling. But not news to me. We got a good taste of what’s coming in 2000, but that’s only the beginning. If you’re reading this reply, you ought to consider reading the complete article above.

I’ve previously predicted in several posts here that because of demographic changes, it will become increasingly difficult for Republican candidates to “build” an electoral college majority in the decades ahead. The main problem is that the left starts an election cycle with a larger “electoral vote base” than do the Republicans.

As demographics have changed, and as the older cohort of Euro-American voters dies off, states that may once have been “battleground” states topple over to become “true blue” states, perhaps never to “vote red” again. Of course, within such states there may be conservative enclaves (California comes to mind, and the vast majority of Illinois is far more conservative than the Chicago area), but they are overwhelmed electorally by the huge number of “blue voters” who drown out any political voice the right has.

Conservatives are going to find themselves fighting harder to win in the remaining battlegrounds. This is going to become a VERY uphill climb within twenty years as the children of illegals mature to voting age. No, illegals may not vote, but they have sown the seeds of political change through their prolific reproductive behavior, at the same time that the Euro-Americans have chosen to restrict their own.

This is why even a state as overtly conservative as Texas is today, is going to change in the future. The Hispanic babies and children are “already there”. They have no “voice” now, but just wait a generation — it will grow louder.

When Texas “tips”, so goes the nation. The Republicans will never win the presidency again without it.

In closing, I believe the 2012 election will be illustrative of the increasing “divide” in America. There will be no “honeymoon” this time.

Nor in any presidential election to come...

That’s just the way I see it. I’m a realist.
Your opinion may be different...


33 posted on 08/04/2012 8:31:09 AM PDT by Road Glide
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To: Alistair Stratford IV

And here’s an inconvenient truth for the beasties: Virtually no one who voted for someone not named Obama last time around is going to switch and vote for him this time. On the other hand, many of those who voted for Obama in 2008 ARE switching.


34 posted on 08/04/2012 8:35:55 AM PDT by Walrus (Restoring America starts today! Let's roll!)
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To: Road Glide

Sorry to break it to you but the demographics in 2012 are exactly the same as the demographics in 2010. The only difference is that more people are pissed off now.


35 posted on 08/04/2012 8:40:09 AM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: Road Glide

I agree with your assessment.

It isn’t just the illegals. In the mid 1960’s Teddy Kennedy was able to get a new immigration law passed that put restrictions on European immigration and opened the floodgates to third world countries. Add to that the State Department allowing refugees fearing political persecution. This is why Palestinians, Pakistani’s, Somali’s and other third world Muslims have poured into the country over the last 40 years.

It is government policy to encourage legal immigration by people from cultures that do not respect our democratic traditions and values and who will not assimilate into the melting pot. The leftists knew they could not conquer us from without but could destroy our schools and overcome the European democratic traditions and Christian values with demographics.

Either 2012 or 2016 will be the tipping point election beyond which the progressives will rule indefinitely. The only thing that can change this outcome is to divide into two or more independent nations.


36 posted on 08/04/2012 8:41:48 AM PDT by Soul of the South
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To: Alistair Stratford IV

Maybe Romney’s “I’m not Obama” campaign is not working in the rust belt.


37 posted on 08/04/2012 8:42:10 AM PDT by ex-snook (without forgiveness there is no Christianity)
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To: Alistair Stratford IV

This fantasy analysis is based on the same thinking that leads MSM to think reporting D+19 polling is a good idea.


38 posted on 08/04/2012 8:43:30 AM PDT by ThunderSleeps (Stop obama now! Stop the hussein - insane agenda!)
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To: Alistair Stratford IV

The delusional rantings of the left at the Daily Beast (somehow an appropriate name for such a group)


39 posted on 08/04/2012 8:49:57 AM PDT by Nifster
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To: Road Glide
Your analysis seems pretty much on target. What this is heading towards is either a de facto redivision of the US or some sort of Civil War 2.The mass base of the Democrats while personally lawless, violent and often criminal are extraordinarily cowardly and would not be able to overwhelm typical red state Americans. The armed forces will be needed for that and that is why there is such an emphasis on changing the culture of the military so the military services become the ‘government's armed force’ versus the the ‘nations armed force’. Very bad times are quite possibly coming to the USA.
40 posted on 08/04/2012 8:50:37 AM PDT by robowombat
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To: Road Glide

“This is why even a state as overtly conservative as Texas is today, is going to change in the future. The Hispanic babies and children are “already there”. They have no “voice” now, but just wait a generation — it will grow louder.”

One would have thought that with all the babies born in the USSR being indoctrinated from an early age in the glory of communism, and the dying out of the older generations that knew better, that there would be no way the USSR would cease to exist. That reasoning was obviously wrong.

I don’t think we know for sure what is going to happen, but I do know that if you want things to turn out differently you have to work to make that happen. If they want to have a breeding war, then maybe that’s what they should get. If I had it to do over I would have tried to have at least two or three more children. It would have been a blessing, and I would know that at least they had each other.


41 posted on 08/04/2012 8:52:41 AM PDT by pieceofthepuzzle
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To: Alistair Stratford IV; reefdiver; ElkGroveDan; Paisan; Apparatchik; Artcore; P.O.E.; randita; ...
Michael Tomasky is well known as a leftist mouthpiece, who appeared frequently in New York Magazine.

Hey, Michael, George W. Bush won two elections without winning Pennsylvania. The fact is that it's not that Romney can't win without Pennsylvania, it's that Obama can't win without it! Let's not turn things upside down.

42 posted on 08/04/2012 9:03:19 AM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: P.O.E.; All
Last election, there were Obama offices all over the barrios and black neighborhoods. Stickers & posters all over the place. Haven’t seen quite so many this time around.

You could have mentioned those menacing New Black Panthers standing on "patrol" in front of the entrance of the Philadelphia polling place, who knew they weren't going to be prosecuted by the O regime to be.

43 posted on 08/04/2012 9:11:36 AM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: Road Glide

Agree and have been saying the same. Demographics make it highly unlikely that a GOP candidate will win a Presidential landslide victory ever again.

I think Romney still has a chance to win a close one in 2012. There may even be a slight hope for a 2016 win. After that, I just don’t see it.

The GOP will become nothing more than a protest party and continue to shrink in both size and influence.


44 posted on 08/04/2012 9:13:35 AM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: P.O.E.
In Pennsy, it’s the cities vs. everywhere else.

True in MN and CA also. I would bet that most large urban areas are true BLUE.
45 posted on 08/04/2012 9:13:50 AM PDT by Cheerio (Barry Hussein Soetoro-0bama=The Complete Destruction of American Capitalism)
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To: Alistair Stratford IV
Why would the bitter, gun-clinging, bible-clutching white devil want to vote against Ubama?

It makes no sense.

Heh.

46 posted on 08/04/2012 9:15:58 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the collectivists.)
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To: Alistair Stratford IV

The libs were saying the same thing in Wisconsin in March and April, running around saying that Kathleen Falk or Tom Barrett would win with a margin larger than Walker won by.


47 posted on 08/04/2012 9:19:28 AM PDT by Thunder90 (Kick Obama out of the White House in 2012.)
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To: comebacknewt

Actually, Romney’s GOP will purge conservatives and become a socialist-lite party, like the Christian Democrat parties of Europe.


48 posted on 08/04/2012 9:19:41 AM PDT by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: haircutter

Sorry, left out the </sarc>


49 posted on 08/04/2012 9:26:05 AM PDT by Apparatchik (If you find yourself in a confusing situation, simply laugh knowingly and walk away - Jim Ignatowski)
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To: ex-snook

Maybe Romney’s “I’m not Obama” campaign is not working in the rust belt.


Romney appears to be leading in MI and WI...MI is so corroded it is beyond being considered “rust belt”.


50 posted on 08/04/2012 9:26:42 AM PDT by Hotlanta Mike (Resurrect the House Committee on Un-American Activities (HUAC)...before there is no America!)
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