Posted on 08/04/2012 8:25:13 AM PDT by lasereye
I’ve long believed the Labor Department’s monthly employment statistics are horribly inaccurate. So bad, in fact, that they are hardly worth compiling.
But I never thought the numbers were fudged — until now.
The government reported yesterday that 163,000 jobs were created in July and that the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 8.3 percent.
While Wall Street’s first reaction to the job report was very positive, that’ll change in the weeks ahead.
Why? Because the strength of the report probably eliminated any chance that Ben Bernanke’s Federal Reserve would begin a new money- printing operation, known as quantitative easing, before the presidential election.
What really matters to you and me is that the economy is creating jobs again, right?
As I’ve explained before, Labor each month guesses at the number of jobs that it thinks are being created by newly formed companies that it really can’t prove actually exist. This is called the birth/death model, in case you want to impress your cocktail-party friends.
So far this year, 400,000 of these phantom jobs have been added to Labor’s count.
Yesterday’s report included the addition of 52,000 phantom jobs. In July 2010, by comparison, Labor subtracted 18,000 jobs because small, invisible companies were dying and killing jobs.
In July 2011, Labor subtracted 38,000 jobs. On average, 20,000 phantom jobs are subtracted in July.
This year, the economy is now officially growing much more slowly than it was last summer and Labor suddenly adds 52,000 jobs to the July count that it can’t prove exist.
Let me put this into a different perspective: When the economy was still booming in the summer of 2007, Labor subtracted 57,000 phantom jobs.
Could the fact that this is an election year have anything to do with this remarkable discrepancy?
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
An excellent post explaining some very murky stats.
I find it interesting that terms like
McJobs
Recovery for Wall $treet and not Main Street
Homeless problem
haven’t been seen in the MSM since Jan 09.
Lies, lies, everywhere lies. Look up, look down, all you see are lies!! It is the US government’s way to speaking. If they EVER told the truth the entire beltway would explode and sink into hell.
thanks.
Re: McJobs - that’s about all that are being created LOL
Unemployment calculations are not impacted by unemployment compensation.
When they stop receiving compensation, and are not back at work, they disappear from the stats. That is my complaint. They lie about the true number.
Wrong. If they're still looking, they're still counted as unemployed.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Annual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 8182 | 8215 | 8304 | 8599 | 8399 | 8393 | 8390 | 8304 | 8251 | 8307 | 8520 | 8640 | |
| 2003 | 8520 | 8618 | 8588 | 8842 | 8957 | 9266 | 9011 | 8896 | 8921 | 8732 | 8576 | 8317 | |
| 2004 | 8370 | 8167 | 8491 | 8170 | 8212 | 8286 | 8136 | 7990 | 7927 | 8061 | 7932 | 7934 | |
| 2005 | 7784 | 7980 | 7737 | 7672 | 7651 | 7524 | 7406 | 7345 | 7553 | 7453 | 7566 | 7279 | |
| 2006 | 7064 | 7184 | 7072 | 7120 | 6980 | 7001 | 7175 | 7091 | 6847 | 6727 | 6872 | 6762 | |
| 2007 | 7116 | 6927 | 6731 | 6850 | 6766 | 6979 | 7149 | 7067 | 7170 | 7237 | 7240 | 7645 | |
| 2008 | 7678 | 7491 | 7816 | 7631 | 8395 | 8578 | 8950 | 9450 | 9501 | 10083 | 10544 | 11299 | |
| 2009 | 12049 | 12860 | 13389 | 13796 | 14505 | 14727 | 14646 | 14861 | 15012 | 15421 | 15227 | 15124 | |
| 2010 | 14953 | 15039 | 15128 | 15221 | 14876 | 14517 | 14609 | 14735 | 14574 | 14636 | 15104 | 14393 | |
| 2011 | 13919 | 13751 | 13628 | 13792 | 13892 | 14024 | 13908 | 13920 | 13897 | 13759 | 13323 | 13097 | |
| 2012 | 12758 | 12806 | 12673 | 12500 | 12720 | 12749 | 12794 |
See the data up top? That's total unemployed.
In Jan 2012, that was 12,758,000.
See the data below? That's initial and continuing claims for unemployment. At the end of Jan 2012, 4,097,007.
The difference, 8,660,993, is the number of unemployed people not collecting benefits. The number you say "disappear from the stats".
| Initial Claims | Continued Claims | I.U.R | Covered Employment | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N.S.A | S.F. | S.A. | N.S.A | S.F. | S.A. | N.S.A | S.A. | ||
| 01/07/2012 | 646,219 | 165.9 | 390,000 | 4,109,127 | 117.5 | 3,497,000 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 126,579,970 |
| 01/14/2012 | 525,422 | 144.2 | 364,000 | 4,069,651 | 114.6 | 3,551,000 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 126,579,970 |
| 01/21/2012 | 416,880 | 112.0 | 372,000 | 4,058,236 | 116.4 | 3,486,000 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 126,579,970 |
| 01/28/2012 | 422,287 | 110.7 | 381,000 | 4,097,007 | 116.5 | 3,517,000 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 126,579,970 |
| 02/04/2012 | 401,365 | 108.2 | 371,000 | 3,984,885 | 115.7 | 3,444,000 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 126,579,970 |
| 02/11/2012 | 365,014 | 101.2 | 361,000 | 4,010,484 | 117.6 | 3,410,000 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 126,579,970 |
| 02/18/2012 | 346,659 | 95.7 | 362,000 | 3,882,525 | 113.3 | 3,427,000 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 126,579,970 |
| 02/25/2012 | 334,241 | 89.7 | 373,000 | 3,988,890 | 116.1 | 3,436,000 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 126,579,970 |
| 03/03/2012 | 368,433 | 98.6 | 374,000 | 3,862,329 | 113.8 | 3,394,000 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 126,579,970 |
| 03/10/2012 | 340,077 | 93.6 | 363,000 | 3,815,580 | 112.8 | 3,383,000 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 126,579,970 |
| 03/17/2012 | 319,498 | 87.7 | 364,000 | 3,699,473 | 110.3 | 3,354,000 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 126,579,970 |
| 03/24/2012 | 323,373 | 89.0 | 363,000 | 3,636,706 | 108.6 | 3,349,000 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 126,579,970 |
| 03/31/2012 | 315,623 | 87.1 | 362,000 | 3,470,104 | 106.1 | 3,271,000 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 126,579,970 |
| 04/07/2012 | 390,064 | 100.6 | 388,000 | 3,447,774 | 104.1 | 3,312,000 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 127,048,587 |
| 04/14/2012 | 370,482 | 95.2 | 389,000 | 3,425,328 | 102.9 | 3,329,000 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 127,048,587 |
| 04/21/2012 | 370,632 | 94.5 | 392,000 | 3,292,997 | 100.1 | 3,290,000 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 127,048,587 |
| 04/28/2012 | 333,476 | 90.6 | 368,000 | 3,210,827 | 98.9 | 3,247,000 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 127,048,587 |
| 05/05/2012 | 341,080 | 92.3 | 370,000 | 3,150,380 | 95.8 | 3,288,000 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 127,048,587 |
| 05/12/2012 | 325,094 | 87.3 | 372,000 | 3,124,384 | 95.3 | 3,278,000 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 127,048,587 |
| 05/19/2012 | 330,431 | 88.5 | 373,000 | 3,060,348 | 93.9 | 3,259,000 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 127,048,587 |
| 05/26/2012 | 346,260 | 89.1 | 389,000 | 3,062,676 | 92.3 | 3,318,000 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 127,048,587 |
| 06/02/2012 | 324,385 | 85.3 | 380,000 | 3,091,216 | 93.7 | 3,299,000 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 127,048,587 |
| 06/09/2012 | 376,610 | 96.8 | 389,000 | 3,101,927 | 93.7 | 3,310,000 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 127,048,587 |
| 06/16/2012 | 364,548 | 93.0 | 392,000 | 3,113,904 | 94.3 | 3,302,000 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 127,048,587 |
| 06/23/2012 | 370,460 | 95.4 | 388,000 | 3,145,031 | 94.8 | 3,318,000 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 127,048,587 |
| 06/30/2012 | 369,826 | 98.3 | 376,000 | 3,112,199 | 93.9 | 3,314,000 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 127,048,587 |
| 07/07/2012 | 442,192 | 125.8 | 352,000 | 3,360,067 | 101.3 | 3,317,000 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 127,495,952 |
That's a common misconception. That's not how it's calculated.
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