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FR Exclusive: Political Junkie's Guide To The Elections - Week Ending August 4, 2012
Rasmussen Reports ^ | August 4, 2012 | Political Junkie Too

Posted on 08/04/2012 2:01:51 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too

Previous Editions:

July 21, 2012
Premier - July 4, 2012

I discoverd that the maps and charts did not display last time. This is due to it being hosted by an encrypted storage site. I was using a free anonymous site in 2010, but that site has since shut down. For now, you will have to click on a link to see each chart. I apologize for the inconvenience.

This Editions's Updates:

Here is the latest update of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.

The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and updates those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.

Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.

Since the last report, Rasmussen published polls in Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, which gives Obama an Electoral College win if the election were held today. Obama has 275 Electoral College votes to Romney's 206, with 57 EV up for grabs. Probabilistically, Romney has a 12.75% chance of winning today.

In Michigan, Romney's result remained the same from the mid-June poll, while Obama lost 2%, leaving the race at a still strong +6 for Obama.

In Missouri, Romney gained 1% from the early June poll, while Obama gained 2%, netting a -2% move for Romney. Missouri remains strong for Romney.

In Nevada, the situation is improving. Romney gained 1% from a May poll, while Obama lost 2%. Romney reduced the gap from -8% to -5%. Nevada moves from Safe Obama to Strong Obama.

In North Carolina, Romney gained 2% from a late-June poll, while Obama polled the same as before. North Carolina moves from Leaning Romney to Strong Romney.

In Wisconsin, a big shift happened. Romney lost 1% from a mid-June poll, while Obama gained a whopping 5%. Wisconsin completely flipped from +3% Romney to +3% Obama, moving the state from Leans Romney to Leans Obama. Another poll after the primary will show whether this was an outlier or a true shift in the state which had remarkably tilted Republican in 2010.

Watch List - R Gain % (R Spread %):

Summary of Electoral College breakdown

Obama - 275 Romney - 206
Safe Strong Leaning Toss-Up Leaning Strong Safe
EV State EV State EV State EV State EV State EV State EV State
55 California 16 Michigan 18 Ohio 9 Colorado 16 Georgia 9 Alabama
7 Connecticut 4 New Hampshire 10 Wisconsin 29 Florida 11 Indiana 3 Alaska
3 District of Columbia 6 Nevada 6 Iowa 10 Missouri 11 Arizona
3 Delaware 20 Pennsylvania 13 Virginia 15 North Carolina 6 Arkansas
4 Hawaii 4 Idaho
20 Illinois 6 Kansas
4 Maine 8 Kentucky
10 Maryland 8 Louisiana
11 Massachusetts 6 Mississippi
10 Minnesota 3 Montana
14 New Jersey 5 Nebraska
5 New Mexico 3 North Dakota
29 New York 7 Oklahoma
7 Oregon 9 South Carolina
4 Rhode Island 3 South Dakota
3 Vermont 11 Tennessee
12 Washington 38 Texas
6 Utah
5 West Virginia
3 Wyoming
201 46 28 57 0 52 154

2008 Final Results

Link to 2008 Final Election Map

Current State Leanings

Link to Current Electoral College Map

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

Week GOP
Electoral
College
P10
GOP
Electoral
College
EV
GOP
Electoral
College
P90
Probability
of 270
2008 Election 180 180 180 0.00%
12-May-12 193 220.73 248 0.16%
19-May-12 197 225.09 248 0.23%
26-May-12 206 232.72 256 1.21%
02-Jun-12 216 242.46 266 4.43%
09-Jun-12 221 247.73 275 14.02%
16-Jun-12 230 257.37 282 28.95%
23-Jun-12 231 257.92 282 30.10%
30-Jun-12 225 254.58 282 24.61%
07-Jul-12 225 254.58 282 24.61%
14-Jul-12 225 254.58 282 24.61%
21-Jul-12 219 248.33 276 16.46%
28-Jul-12 215 244.1 272 11.78%
04-Aug-12 216 245.64 273 12.75%

Link to Probability Chart

State Details

Colorado (9 EV)

Colorado is tied at 45% each. In 2008, Obama won in Colorado over McCain with 53.7% to 44.7%, so Obama lost a 9% lead.

At this time In 2008, Colorado was favoring Obama 43% to 41%. Rasmussen's next Colorado poll was in the last week of July, when Obama pulled ahead 49% to 42%. In mid-September it flipped to McCain 48% to 46%. The end of September had Obama leading 49% to 48%. The first week of October had Obama finally pulling away 51% to 45%. In the week before the election, Obama held his lead 51% to 47%.

Florida (29 EV)

Florida went for Obama in 2008 by 50.9% to 48.1%, making it a close race. I can see why Obama wants to block purging the voter rolls of invalid voters. Rasmussen has polled Florida twice so far, getting the same result of Romney ahead 46% to 45%.

In 2008, McCain was leading for most of the race. In March 08, McCain was up 47%-43%. In April it was 53%-38%. In May it was 50%-40%. Mid-June was 47%-39%, and end-of-June was 48% to 41%. Things changed in the end-of-July poll. Obama took the lead 46%-45%. Ny mid-September,it was back to McCain on top again 51%-46%. At the end of September, the vote evened at 47%, and in early October Obama led 52% to 45%. The last poll had McCain winning 50%-49%.

Georgia (16 EV)

Georgia voted for McCain 52.1%-46.9%. Georgia has not been polled this year.

In early March of 2008, Georgia was for the GOP 53%-40%. The few polls that there were hovered at +/- this same result. It narrowed in the end as the undecided broke for Obama.

Indiana (11 EV)

Indiana was an extremely close race in 2008, voting for Obama by 49.9% to 48.8%. This time around, and end-of-May poll has Romney leading Obama 48%-42%, a comfortable lead.

In 2008, Rasmussen didn't poll Indiana until mid-September, when McCain was ahead 49%-47%. A last poll in November had McCain still leading 49%-46%. Obama turned it around in the last week.

Iowa (6 EV)

Iowa was a solid Obama state, voting 53.9% to 44.4%. In June, Rasmussen's poll found Romney barely ahead 47%-46%.

In 2008, a June poll showed Obama ahead of McCain 45%-38%. The next poll at the end of September still showed Obama leading 51%-43%. One last poll in November had Obama 52%-44%.

Michigan (16 EV)

Michigan is a blue state, voting for Obama 57.3% to 40.9%. A poll in mid-June shows Obama losing 7%, making this race just within the margin of error at 50%-42%. This week's poll has Obama losing 2% more, moving the race to 48%-42% for Obama.

A June 2008 poll had Michigan in a closer race, with Obama leading 45%-42%. A late-July poll widened the lead 47%-39%. A September poll had Michigan at 51%-44%, and a November poll had it 53%-43%.

Missouri (10 EV)

Missouri was a squeaker of a race in 2008, voting for McCain by the slimmest of margins, 49.4% to 49.2%. Currently, a June poll has Romney with a solid lead at 49%-42%. An earlier poll had ROmney leading 48%-45%, so Romney is improving here. This week's poll shows slight gains for both candidates, making the race now 50%-44% for Romney.

At this point in 2008, McCain was ahead in Missouri 47%-42%. By October, Obama pulled