Skip to comments.Dick MorrisL The Real Poll Numbers
Posted on 08/06/2012 9:55:38 PM PDT by GR_Jr.
The media is trying to create a sense of momentum and of inevitability about the Obama candidacy. One benighted Newsweek reporter even speculated about a possible Democratic landslide.
On Friday, I saw the real numbers. These state-by-state polls, taken by an organization I trust (after forty years of polling) show the real story. The tally is based on more than 600 likely voter interviews in each swing state within the past eight days.
The trend line is distinctly pro-Romney. Of the thirteen states studied, he improved or Obama slipped in nine states while the reverse happened in only four. To read the media, one would think that Romney had a terrible month. In fact, the exact reverse is true.
Romney is currently leading in every state McCain carried plus: Indiana, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, and Colorado. If he carries these states, hell have 228 electoral votes of the 270 he needs to win.
To win the election, Romney would then have to carry Florida where he trails by two points, and either Virginia (behind by two) or Ohio where hes down by only one.
If he carries all three of these states and also wins all the others where Obama is now at 50% or less Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey he will get 351 electoral votes, a landslide about equal to Obamas 363 vote tally in 2008.
The strong probability is that Romney does, in fact, carry Florida, Ohio, and Virginia and a share of the other states where Obama is below 50% of the vote.
So dont believe the garbage being put out by the media. The attempt to portray Romney as not catching on and as dropping in the polls is ludicrous.
(Excerpt) Read more at dickmorris.com ...
Obama is going to lose big.
He was the second one to predict the midterm blowout. He predicted a 90 seat pickup so he is actually very good.
Pray for America
13% more Democrats and never use likely Voters
He's not the best commentator.
Thanks for posting this.
Actually this girl I worked with met Morris in Manhattan. She was in this little store where they sell sandals and Morris happened to be there at the time. She said he actually acts a little “funny” like maybe he fishes off both sides of the pier but other than that a polite man.
Think he might jinx it?
Romney win Minnesota? Not likely. I’d think he’s got better chance in N.J. All I want is 269, that’s not much to ask, is it?
I have a half baked theory, PA just might be in play. For years I-84 and many of the main roads in the Poconos looked like they’ve been hit by mortar attacks. All summer, PENNDOT has been all over it. back in 1994 when Mario “The Sfaccim” Cuomo made his run for a 4th term as gov, in a desperate attempt to win and help his dem colleages in the NY Congressional districts maintain control of the House, IMO, many long overdue road improvement projects and repairs were taking place all over the Hudson Vly. Has anyone in OH, MI, IL or any other Dem stronghold notice this strange phenomenon?
Don't forget the long coat tails for the down ticket candidates.
I agree. Romney does not have to win all 57 states.
Did you have that conversation before or after 29 August 1996?
Remarkably, it seems his relationship with his wife Eileen McGann survived the rhubarb and continues to this day. Best wishes to them!
Democrat Pollster PPP after Wisconsin:
“We underestimated the amount of voter anger out there...”
An awful lot of people realize they got played for fools by the media in 2008, and aren’t falling for it again.
while a long shot.. Romney can win MN.. We pitched a ton of Rats in 2010 and if Romney actually picks Tpaw (I hope not) he will carry the state.
Morris,Holder,Axelrod all have something in common. They went to the same high school. (me too)
The Obama-Odinga-Morris Story is 100% true but has gone down the MSM rat hole.
He’s a sharp guy and he knows polling, he’s just not very good at guessing what’s going to happen in the future when he’s not basing it on polls.
I actually thought he did a good job in the Republican Primary, correctly calling the mistakes as they happened and correctly making a series of short-term predictions.
Winning Mn. would be quite the coup. That would be a sign that this country saw the edge of the progressive cliff and instead of playing chicken, decided to step back.
>PA just might be in play. For years I-84 and many of the main roads in the Poconos looked like theyve been hit by mortar attacks. All summer, PENNDOT has been all over it.
Interesting but not following the logic - Pa, IIRC, is now controlled by the GOP legislature & Governor, correct?
Winning MN would send shock waves through the entire “progressive” movement and alter the political dialog for decades to come.
In many ways this is more important than the presidency. Solid conservatives in place in the senate and house will be able to do more to prevent further damage, no matter who the president is.
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