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CBS/NYT poll shows swing states in play for Romney
Hotair ^ | 08/08/2012 | Ed Morrissey

Posted on 08/08/2012 7:19:48 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

We've already taken a look at one of our "favorite" polls to analyze. How about another series infamous for sampling issues? The latest survey from CBS and the New York Times covers three swing states won by Barack Obama in 2008, and where Mitt Romney hopes to compete. The polling performed by Quinnipiac for CBS/NYT shows Romney leading in Colorado, within the margin of error in Virginia, and almost so in Wisconsin:

Romney is ahead of the president in the swing state of Colorado, 50 percent to 45 percent. The poll shows a key part of Mr. Obama's Colorado coalition from 2008 --- college-educated white voters --- in play this year.

Mr. Obama, meanwhile, leads Romney in Virginia, 49 percent to 45 percent, thanks in part to strong support from women and black voters.

In a third important state, Wisconsin, Mr. Obama has a 6-point lead over Romney, 51 percent to 45.

Twitter follower Marc BC got to the sample data ahead of me:

@jpodhoretz @edmorrissey CO oversample Rs and VA oversample Ds.Wisc seems right. Most likely dead heats in CO & VA. Wisc slight Obama.

— Marc BC (@MarcBC10) August 8, 2012

Let’s take a look at Virginia first. The D/R/I of this poll is 30/23/40, with 7% undetermined. The D/R/I of the 2008 election exit polling for VA was 39/33/27, which is far off from Quinnipiac’s model, undersampling both Democrats and Republicans. The relative position between Democrats and Republicans is about the same (D+7 in this poll, D+6 in 2008), but I doubt we’re going to see a 2008 electorate model in November. We don’t have exit polling from VA in 2010, so we don’t know how the Republican wave would have performed statewide — but we do know that Virginia elected a Republican governor in 2009, largely on the basis of opposition to Obama’s policies.

Next, let’s look at Colorado, where Romney leads. The D/R/I is 27/32/37 in the poll; in 2008, it was 30/31/39, and in 2010 33/28/39. Colorado was one of the few states to get more Democratic in the midterms than in the previous presidential election. I’m not certain that pattern will hold in 2012, though, and it’s also worth noting that independents almost evenly split in their partisan leanings (40/39 Republican). This might be a slight GOP oversample; it still suggests a virtual tie, hardly good news for an incumbent in a state that rebuffed the GOP wave in 2010.

The sample for Wisconsin may be the toughest to analyze. The poll’s D/R/I is 34/27/33, close to the same gap as the 2008 election’s 39/33/29. However, the 2010 midterms produced an electorate of 37/36/28, which showed a strong GOP trend. Thanks to the waste of millions of dollars by unions in recall elections, the Republican base has been fired up ever since, and Scott Walker’s highly successful GOTV infrastructure remains in place for Romney. Of the three states polled by Quinnipiac, this might be the biggest Democratic oversample in terms of what model we can expect in November.

Overall, this shows Romney competing in states Obama can’t afford to lose — after getting bombarded by an avalanche of negative advertising. If Romney is this close in Wisconsin, Virginia, and Colorado, he will be well positioned to answer Obama with his own deluge of messaging when the convention unlocks the general-election funds he’s raised over the summer.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: obama; poll; romney; swingstates

1 posted on 08/08/2012 7:19:54 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
Never underestimate the ability of the Stupid Party to snatch defeat from the jaws of vicotry.

However, unlike McLame, I think Mittens actually wants to be president.

2 posted on 08/08/2012 7:23:08 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: SeekAndFind

This is a lot of analysis for a poll based on registered voters rather than likely voters


3 posted on 08/08/2012 7:25:24 AM PDT by kidd
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To: SeekAndFind
Romney is ahead of the president in the swing state of Colorado, 50 percent to 45 percent. The poll shows a key part of Mr. Obama's Colorado coalition from 2008 --- college-educated white voters --- in play this year.

0bama is too busy working states like Minnesota, Virginia, and Illinois to make sure he doesn't lose them this time around.

4 posted on 08/08/2012 7:25:50 AM PDT by EGPWS (Trust in God, question everyone else)
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To: SeekAndFind

Like many major polls these days, these guys seem to have their sampling all wrong. Taking into the above oversampling, the results should be more like:

Virginia: Romney + 4%
Wisconsin: Obama + 3.5%
Colorado: Romney + 3%

Here’s how I based this: If we look at Gallup’s state party numbers, which likely takes into account independents leaning either Democrat or Republican, we see the following party identifications (approximates):

Virginia: Republican plus 1%
Wisconsin: Democrat plus 4.5%
Colorado: Republican plus 3%

However, this poll samples the following:

Virginia: Democrat +7
Wisconsin: Democrats +7
Colorado: Republicans plus 5

The difference between the poll and Gallup’s party identification numbers is:

Virginia: oversampled Democrats by 8%
Wisconsin: oversampled Democrats by 2.5%
Colorado: oversampled Republicans by 2%

Apply those oversampling numbers to the polls results and you get this:
Virginia: Romney + 4%
Wisconsin: Obama + 3.5%
Colorado: Romney + 3%


5 posted on 08/08/2012 7:35:36 AM PDT by trackman
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To: Vigilanteman

There is no doubt MITT will fight, the folks saying he won’t are fools IMHO.. there are many things I don’t like about him, but he’s proven he will fight. In case you missed the primaries...

Not only will Mitt Fight, he’s got no qualms getting down and dirty in those fights if needed.

Secondly, Mitt invested MILLIONS of his own money last time around attempting to beat McCain if folks remember correctly, this guy absolutely wants the job. Those who are portraying him as not willing to fight, I think haven’t been paying attention.


6 posted on 08/08/2012 7:42:30 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: trackman

By the way, here’s where you can find Gallup’s state party id numbers:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/125066/State-States.aspx


7 posted on 08/08/2012 7:44:53 AM PDT by trackman
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To: SeekAndFind

They must be receiving daily shipments of fresh underwear over at Obama headquarters.


8 posted on 08/08/2012 7:44:53 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: HamiltonJay

I am getting impatient waiting for Mitt the fighter to arive to be honest.


9 posted on 08/08/2012 8:03:07 AM PDT by GlockThe Vote (The Obama Adminstration: 2nd wave of attacks on America after 9/11)
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To: HamiltonJay

Folks here can attack the candidate but let’s face it the electorate is the problem. My guess is Obama will lose, but states like Colorado and Virginia are in play for Obama, that’s a commentary on what America is being transformed into.


10 posted on 08/08/2012 8:13:03 AM PDT by Williams (No Obama)
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To: SeekAndFind

11 posted on 08/08/2012 8:29:16 AM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: SeekAndFind

12 posted on 08/08/2012 8:36:28 AM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: kidd
This is a lot of analysis for a poll based on registered voters rather than likely voters...

If you throw in 'motor-voter' the whole thing is worthless...

13 posted on 08/08/2012 9:15:04 AM PDT by GOPJ (..convinced if you put a compass in the hands of a liberal, it will point south -Fr Neveronmywatch)
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To: SeekAndFind

Of course “Swing” states are “in play” for Romney. If they weren’t they wouldn’t be “swing” states.


14 posted on 08/08/2012 11:05:16 AM PDT by Personal Responsibility (Behind enemy lines in the city where it's illegal to buy a Big Gulp)
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