I don’t know how Mitt could possibly be leading by 4 nationally but trailing by 2 in VA, unless he’s getting 75% support in places like Texas.
Demographics... VA is very black and that is the one contingent that will turn out for him in similar numbers to 2008.
But would Mitt’s lead in Texas and the South not be more than offset by Obama’s lead in Illinois, New York, and New England and on the West Coast?
I agree. The state polling makes little sense right now. We are seeing Mitt even up in blue-leaning states...Colorado, which is seeing the negative ads, as well as WI, MI and others who are not as much. We see Obama hanging in there in FL (albeit with low numbers for himself as an incumbent), but seeing bad results in other swing states where it seems like he’d have better potential.
My only fear (assuming the GOP runs a decent campaign) is that Romney damn near has to run the table in swing states. He likely has to win the midwest, VA and FL, which all have very different voter bases. If Obama finds a good formula in any of the three, he could eek it out.
Romney might be getting that level of support in some places. He’s far from a perfect choice, but I think so many people are disgusted with obama that Romney will get a lot of votes. I just hope he can win the Electoral College also.
It’s bogus. A poll yesterday of northern VA, which ZEro won by 20 in 08, shows him up two. He simply can’t win with that # in northern VA..