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Fox News poll: Obama's lead grows as Romney's support slips
FOX News ^ | August 9, 2012 | By Dana Blanton

Posted on 08/09/2012 3:54:49 PM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer

Mitt Romney has had a tough couple of weeks on the campaign trail -- and it shows in the latest Fox News poll. After a barrage of campaign ads, negative news coverage of his overseas trip and ongoing talk about his tax returns, Romney’s favorable rating and standing in the trial ballot have declined. As a result, President Obama has opened his biggest lead since Romney became the presumptive Republican nominee.

The president would take 49 percent of the vote compared to Romney's 40 percent in a head-to-head matchup if the election were held today, the poll found. Last month, Obama had a four percentage-point edge of 45 percent to 41 percent. This marks the second time this year the president has had a lead outside the poll’s margin of sampling error.

Obama’s advantage comes largely from increased support among independents, who now pick him over Romney by 11 percentage points. Some 30 percent of independents are undecided. Last month, Obama had a four-point edge among independents, while Romney had the advantage from April through early June.

There was also an uptick in support for Obama among women, blacks and Democrats.

(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; election2012; fumr; oversampleddemsby9; romney; romney2012; thechosenloser; weakasarino
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The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The poll was conducted by telephone with live interviewers August 5-7, 2012, among a random national base sample of 930 registered voters, including additional interviews (an oversample) of 115 randomly selected Hispanics. Landline and cell phone telephone numbers were randomly selected for inclusion in the survey using a probability proportionate to size method, which means that phone numbers for each state are proportional to the number of voters in each state.

The additional interviews of Hispanic respondents were done to allow analysis of the subgroup, and are weighted so Hispanics are not over-represented in the overall national sample. The total 170 of Hispanics is made up of 55 interviews done as part of the base national sample and 115 oversample interviews from a list of Hispanic voters developed from previously conducted national random digit dial (RDD) surveys. Oversample interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2012/08/09/fox-news-poll-presidential-race/

1 posted on 08/09/2012 3:54:57 PM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

yeeesh


2 posted on 08/09/2012 3:56:21 PM PDT by babble-on
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

So you tell me as compared to Rasmussen. Who knows.


3 posted on 08/09/2012 3:57:07 PM PDT by Williams (No Obama)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

Im just sick.


4 posted on 08/09/2012 3:58:32 PM PDT by GoCards (I am a Hobbit)
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To: GoCards

+9 Dem oversample, 44-35


5 posted on 08/09/2012 3:59:25 PM PDT by Perdogg (Let's leave reading things in the Constitution that aren't there to liberals and Dems)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

Every single poll, except Ras (who had a HORRIBLE track record for 2008 and 2010 and is one of the lowest rated pollsters for accuracy) is saying Obama’s lead is growing and getting stronger.

My hope? That somehow this eliminates the GOP elite who stuck us with the worst Presidential candidate in the history of America.


6 posted on 08/09/2012 4:00:12 PM PDT by RIghtwardHo
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

The poll had a sample of 44% Democrats to 35% Republicans. It’s easy to see why it doesn’t make sense.

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/313559/new-fox-poll-also-gives-obama-eleven-point-lead-among-independents-katrina-trinko


7 posted on 08/09/2012 4:00:30 PM PDT by Essie
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To: Williams

Rasmussen samples likely voters and on a daily basis.


8 posted on 08/09/2012 4:00:37 PM PDT by saganite (What happens to taglines? Is there a termination date?)
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To: Perdogg
+9 Dem oversample

And there you have it.

9 posted on 08/09/2012 4:00:48 PM PDT by Scott from the Left Coast
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

So we have a tale of two Americas. In one, Romney is leading as he should be. In the other people hate Romney and are flocking to Obama.

I just find it hard to believe in the America I see every day, that vast numbers of people are saying “Yeah, Obama, I got to have more of that!”


10 posted on 08/09/2012 4:00:48 PM PDT by Williams (No Obama)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

Dumb ass America will have us all speaking Farsi by the end of 0bama’s next term.


11 posted on 08/09/2012 4:01:01 PM PDT by GeorgeWashingtonsGhost
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To: saganite

well if its not likely voters then I know it’s off, still troubling.


12 posted on 08/09/2012 4:01:41 PM PDT by Williams (No Obama)
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To: Williams

Rasmussen has a near perfect record. Fox polls are notoriously off.

This makes no sense when you watch what the candidates are doing, and the ads they are running. Romney is in blue leaning swing states like Iowa focused on independents. Obama is in blue leaning swing states, too, like Colorado trying to shore up base support.


13 posted on 08/09/2012 4:01:51 PM PDT by ilgipper ( November cannot come soon enough)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer
It's a BS poll. They copied Gallup's 9%+ Rats.

The one positive thing these BS polls can do is give Romney some incentive to finally fight back.

The Lame Stream Media will never divorce Obama so Romney should go ahead and call them all out as the liars they all are.

14 posted on 08/09/2012 4:02:02 PM PDT by tobyhill (Obamacare, the final nail in the US coffin.)
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To: babble-on

Looks like that plan to capture all the moderates and independents ain’t working enough.

Here’s my prediction: About a month out from elections, Romney’s team, in desperation, will turn right to finally
begin to reach out to conservatives. You know, the ones that
always save the GOP’s hind quarter and get nothing in return
for it.
Will his last minute”come to Jesus moment” work with conservatives? Only time will tell. I guess it kind of depends on the promises he makes to conservatives.


15 posted on 08/09/2012 4:02:41 PM PDT by tennmountainman
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

I think the polls are spot on.

The GOP nominated Mitt Happens despite everything we did to stop it.

Right now, he looks the GOP version of Michael S. Dukakis - complete with “heas in the deerlight” look.

And he’s been ineffectual in fighting Obama! If we needed a loser, why on God’s green earth couldn’t we have run John Sidney McCain again!


16 posted on 08/09/2012 4:03:35 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Scott from the Left Coast

The bad news for 0bama is even with a +9 Dem oversample Romeny has +3 advantage on econmic affairs. Also, that added in an additional 115 hispanics to the sample.


17 posted on 08/09/2012 4:04:34 PM PDT by Perdogg (Let's leave reading things in the Constitution that aren't there to liberals and Dems)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

When I read this poll I thought it had to be from the onion. 9pct more dems and 17 PCT OF TEA PARTIERS SUPPORT OBAMA. Cmon plz, what is next 95 pct of blacks support Romney


18 posted on 08/09/2012 4:04:44 PM PDT by italianquaker ( Mr Obama inherited an AAA rating and made it AA, thnx Resident Zero)
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To: RIghtwardHo

I think Obama will be re-elected.

Because the GOP elite insisted on giving Mitten Happens his turn at bat.


19 posted on 08/09/2012 4:04:52 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

You need to go look at the poll, it is a +9 Dem oversample.


20 posted on 08/09/2012 4:06:00 PM PDT by Perdogg (Let's leave reading things in the Constitution that aren't there to liberals and Dems)
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To: Williams

I agree...don’t hear people flocking to O. BUT...I also don’t hear anyone jumping up and down excited about Willard. I hear a whole lot of sighing, head shaking and resignation to what appears to be a steamroller.

Out here in WA...we pretty much know Ol’ Willard ain’t winning the state. So yes, it’s easy for me to focus on the down ticket races.

But good golly, can’t Willard figure out how to make himself more attractive to the masses? Can’t he figure out a way to be ‘genuine’ and espouse strong conservative values...and at least pretend he means them for more than a nano second?


21 posted on 08/09/2012 4:06:27 PM PDT by conservaKate (My vote will be against the One...not FOR Mittens.)
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To: goldstategop

“nominated Mitt Happens despite everything we did to stop it.”

Well I guess that wasn’t a hell of a lot was it? Considering he won the GOP nomination.


22 posted on 08/09/2012 4:07:02 PM PDT by Williams (No Obama)
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To: Perdogg

17 pct of tea partiers support obama cmon, some on this board will believe anything it seems


23 posted on 08/09/2012 4:07:55 PM PDT by italianquaker ( Mr Obama inherited an AAA rating and made it AA, thnx Resident Zero)
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To: RIghtwardHo

Oh, come on. Have you forgotten Bob Dole already?


24 posted on 08/09/2012 4:08:12 PM PDT by Little Ray (AGAINST Obama in the General.)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

Much as this poll sample is obviously skewed, Mitt Romney is a piss poor little sissy of a candidate, very much like the GOP in general.

Nonetheless, I will vote for him, however I doubt that Obama will be defeated by the useless, pointless GOP.


25 posted on 08/09/2012 4:08:18 PM PDT by chris37 (Heartless.)
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To: RIghtwardHo

“Every single poll, except Ras (who had a HORRIBLE track record for 2008 and 2010 and is one of the lowest rated pollsters for accuracy”

Rasmussen was consistently found to be the MOST accurrate polster. Here from 2008, it’s No.1:

http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf


26 posted on 08/09/2012 4:08:53 PM PDT by Jewbacca (The residents of Iroquois territory may not determine whether Jews may live in Jerusalem.)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

obama is going to beat romney, but not by 10 points. I figure it will be 52/48 for bambi. When you run a liberal versus a liberal the more liberal one will win and bambi is a little more liberal.


27 posted on 08/09/2012 4:08:53 PM PDT by ChuckHam
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

In 2004, Fox News employed these liberal pollsters who had Kerry beating Bush by 5% on election day.

We all know how that turned out.


28 posted on 08/09/2012 4:09:33 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: chris37

My daughter, who sang at an FR rally, just informed me that she is voting for Obama because Romney is a right wing extremist who condemned gay marriage.

I raised an idiot.


29 posted on 08/09/2012 4:09:46 PM PDT by AppyPappy (If you really want to annoy someone, point out something obvious that they are trying hard to ignore)
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To: conservaKate

Let me speak plainly no offense meant. Obama is a piece of pure left wing crap. A scummy marxisdt. The country is being destroyed.

Your state is liberal as is mine, but please let’s focus our attacks on Obama, Romney hasn’t done a damn thing wrong. He isn’t “real” enough? please.


30 posted on 08/09/2012 4:09:59 PM PDT by Williams (No Obama)
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To: Perdogg

Ah yes, but we know that free contraceptives are more important to the voters than the economy or our debt.

/s


31 posted on 08/09/2012 4:10:38 PM PDT by Scott from the Left Coast
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To: GeorgeWashingtonsGhost

I’ll speak fluent Farsi at the same time I start pooping solid 24K gold eggs!


32 posted on 08/09/2012 4:10:38 PM PDT by rhubarbk
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To: Oldeconomybuyer
Obama’s advantage comes largely from increased support among independents, who now pick him over Romney

Be not afraid, Conservatives...

Willie Mitty is coming back to you...

Your prom date is about to ask you for another dance...

The pretty girl told Willie to drop dead..


33 posted on 08/09/2012 4:10:41 PM PDT by Tennessee Nana (Why should I vote for Bishop Romney when he hates me because I am a Christian)
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To: ChuckHam

I wouldn’t use these clowns as a guide on who is going to win on November 6th.


34 posted on 08/09/2012 4:11:06 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: Oldeconomybuyer
Registered voters, no doubt.

Unless it's likely voters, it's a garbage poll.

35 posted on 08/09/2012 4:11:15 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the collectivists.)
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To: chris37

Myth RomneyCARE was carefully vetted by the DNC.

He was chosen because absolutely NO ONE in the GOP
was wise enough to consider
1) he lost to McCain
2) he is despised for RomneyCARE/ObamaCARE
3) he authored and installed alone, gay marriage
4) he has defended Obama on TARP, and on the absent docs.
5) like McCain Mr. RomneyCARE does not care about losing
as long as HE makes money.


36 posted on 08/09/2012 4:11:50 PM PDT by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer
Even with oversampling, it is a depressing outcome.

We are imploding.

37 posted on 08/09/2012 4:12:58 PM PDT by Jagdgewehr (It will take blood)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer
It must suck to be a RINO, RINO sympathizer or an ABO that believes that he or she will be taken away to prison camp if Romney blows what should be an easy win for the Republican nominee.

Gee, ya think Romney's failure to support Chick-fil-A and his going gay on the Boy Scouts might just be hurting him in the polls?

38 posted on 08/09/2012 4:13:02 PM PDT by Kazan (Mitt Romney: The greater of two evils)
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To: Williams

Amazing,I dont know how many times I have heard and seen these so called Independents saying,we dont like the Arguing and the name calling,we want the politicians to work together for the American People! So Obama Lies through his teeth,calling Romney a Felon,Pelosi calls them Ecoli,they want dirty air,poison the food,take all your money and Romney DEFENDS himself and he drops Like a Rock in The polls! Obama has Screwed more Private workers in Favor of the Unions with taxpayer Money and No One,INCLUDING OUR DUFUS CANDIDATE,says a Peep.
When he dares to say one word he is Crucified.
This Romney is EXACTLY what we DONT need in a Candidate against Obama. Its Like throwing a New Born Baby in a Pool filled with Sharks,he is Going to be eaten alive,What a Wus thid Romney is,he is Like every other feckless Republican Rino,they Believe this Crap that Negative ads dont work,thats a Bunch of Crap,ask Romney ,he is Being Buried and he should make Believe Obama is Gingrich or Santorum in the Primary,he only Etas his own,I believe more everyday this is all a Setup to get the Marxist Reelected. The Bush Family has always been into this one world garbage,I think Romney is just a Front sent out to take the fall,I know he is a Mormon,is he a Pacifist as well?


39 posted on 08/09/2012 4:13:28 PM PDT by ballplayer
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To: AppyPappy

Yep the kids have been taught their parents are racist haters. And we let the schools and media do it when we should have these people fired.


40 posted on 08/09/2012 4:13:28 PM PDT by Williams (No Obama)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer
As the man said..."I have not yet begun to fight...."

Romney cannot spend any money until he is the official nominee.

It's all about money.

41 posted on 08/09/2012 4:13:28 PM PDT by Churchillspirit (9/11/2001. NEVER FORGET.)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

The poll assumes that on election day there will be +9 Dems voting, do you believe that? - Garbage poll.


42 posted on 08/09/2012 4:14:01 PM PDT by Perdogg (Let's leave reading things in the Constitution that aren't there to liberals and Dems)
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To: Perdogg
You need to go look at the poll, it is a +9 Dem oversample.

Without looking, it likely even oversampled Independent voters over Repubs.

43 posted on 08/09/2012 4:15:25 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: AppyPappy

Go to any college, they are all merrily holding anti Jew rallies for the palestinians, calling Jews “nazis” and they think if you oppose gay marriage you are an evil hater. But we keep paying tuitions rather than circle the place and demand firings.


44 posted on 08/09/2012 4:15:41 PM PDT by Williams (No Obama)
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To: Perdogg

Plus it is Registered Voters where 1/2 of them won’t even vote...


45 posted on 08/09/2012 4:15:56 PM PDT by scbison
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To: RIghtwardHo

Bit more, from wikipedia:

FOX News contributors Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen (a coauthor of Rasmussen) wrote that Rasmussen has an “unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy.”[38]The Wall Street Journal stated that “Mr. Rasmussen is today’s leading insurgent pollster” and “a key player in the contact sport of politics.”[29] Slate Magazine and The Wall Street Journal reported that Rasmussen Reports was one of the most accurate polling firms for the 2004 United States presidential election and 2006 United States general elections.[37][49][not in citation given] In 2004 Slate magazine “publicly doubted and privately derided” Rasmussen’s use of recorded voices in electoral polls. However, after the election, they concluded that Rasmussen’s polls were among the most accurate in the 2004 presidential election.[37] According to Politico, Rasmussen’s 2008 presidential-election polls “closely mirrored the election’s outcome”.[50]

At the end of the 2008 presidential election, there were eight national tracking polls and many other polls conducted on a regular basis. Polling analyst Nate Silver reviewed the tracking polls and said that while none were perfect, and Rasmussen was “frequently reputed to have a Republican lean”, the “house effect” in their tracking poll was small and “with its large sample size and high pollster rating [it] would probably be the one I’d want with me on a desert island.”[51] After the election, Rasmussen’s poll was rated as the most accurate, when compared to various other final pre-election polls.

In the January 2010 special election for the Senate seat from Massachusetts, Rasmussen Reports was the first to show that Republican Scott Brown had a chance to defeat Martha Coakley. Just after Brown’s upset win, Ben Smith at Politico reported, “The overwhelming conventional wisdom in both parties until a Rasmussen poll showed the race in single digits in early January was that Martha Coakley was a lock. (It’s hard to recall a single poll changing the mood of a race quite that dramatically.)”[52] A few days later, Public Policy Polling released the first poll showing Brown in the lead, a result differing from Rasmussen’s by 10 points.[53] Rasmussen’s last poll on the race found Coakley with a 2-point lead, when she in fact lost by 5 points, a 7-point error.[54]

A quote from Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia posted on the Rasmussen homepage reads, “Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.”[55]

Journalist Mickey Kaus said, “If you have a choice between Rasmussen and, say, the prestigious New York Times, go with Rasmussen.”[8][56]


46 posted on 08/09/2012 4:15:56 PM PDT by Jewbacca (The residents of Iroquois territory may not determine whether Jews may live in Jerusalem.)
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To: AppyPappy

Cut off her inheritance.Let her get it from obama.


47 posted on 08/09/2012 4:15:56 PM PDT by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: RIghtwardHo
Every single poll...is saying Obama’s lead is growing and getting stronger.

Note that all these polls over-sample Democrats. Their sole purpose is to disspirit Republicans.

And you're falling for it.

48 posted on 08/09/2012 4:17:08 PM PDT by okie01 (The Mainstream Media: IGNORANCE ON PARADE002)
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To: Perdogg

agreed...not only an over sample of Dems but ‘registered’ voters to boot. Pollsters are acting like the turnout will match 2008 of +8 Dem. No frigging way.


49 posted on 08/09/2012 4:17:08 PM PDT by joltman1974
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To: AppyPappy

So, where did it go wrong? Seriously.


50 posted on 08/09/2012 4:18:29 PM PDT by Jewbacca (The residents of Iroquois territory may not determine whether Jews may live in Jerusalem.)
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