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Nate Silver FiveThirtyEight-- Aug. 9: National Polls Shouldn't Panic Romney
New York Times ^ | August 10, 2012 | Nate Silver

Posted on 08/10/2012 5:26:06 AM PDT by hcmama

One problem is that the trend toward Mr. Obama in national polls has hardly been uniform. The Gallup national tracking poll has shown a very flat race. And Rasmussen Reports had a swing toward Mr. Romney in its release on Thursday, with his pulling ahead by four points in its survey. Weekly tracking polls from Public Policy Polling and YouGov have also not shown especially good numbers for Mr. Obama lately. If there had really been a shift in the race of the magnitude that the Real Clear Politics average implies — it has Mr. Obama gaining three points on Mr. Romney over roughly the past 10 days — we probably wouldn’t be seeing these contradictory data points.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: polls; propaganda
Yeah, it's Pravda on the Hudson and all, and Nate is an avowed and open lefty, but this represents overall a pretty fair and thoughtful analysis.
1 posted on 08/10/2012 5:26:19 AM PDT by hcmama
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To: hcmama

Why is not Obama losing by 80%?

Because Mr. RomneyCARE represents ... RomneyCARE/ObamaCARE.
and because he won’t attack the DNC.


2 posted on 08/10/2012 5:30:16 AM PDT by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: Diogenesis

Anyone else care to respond?


3 posted on 08/10/2012 5:31:56 AM PDT by hcmama
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To: hcmama

The intensity of the bile in the propaganda has been increased. Credibility is completely gone. Nate missed his calling as a stand-up comic.


4 posted on 08/10/2012 5:33:11 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: hcmama

The fox poll, which was a RV poll and had +9 Dem model, had some very bad news for 0bama. Even with stacking the deck, Romeny had a +3 lead when it came to the economy.


5 posted on 08/10/2012 5:34:37 AM PDT by Perdogg (Let's leave reading things in the Constitution that aren't there to liberals and Dems)
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To: Diogenesis
Why is not Obama losing by 80%?

Gee I dunno. Could it be because there are about 72 million Democrats in the US?

6 posted on 08/10/2012 5:35:01 AM PDT by bkepley
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To: Perdogg

“The fox poll, which was a RV poll and had +9 Dem model, had some very bad news for 0bama.”
Are you looking at the same fox news website I am?
They are saying this:
FOX NEWS POLL: Obama’s Lead Grows as Romney’s Support Slips


7 posted on 08/10/2012 5:37:48 AM PDT by 9422WMR (Life is not fair, just deal with it.)
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To: Perdogg

I think that is Silver’s point: none of these trends are reflected in the tracking polls, not even in Democrat PeePeePee poll straight out of Chapel Hill.


8 posted on 08/10/2012 5:41:25 AM PDT by hcmama
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To: Clintonfatigued; Impy; AuH2ORepublican; fieldmarshaldj; no dems; Kaslin; perfect_rovian_storm; ...

Silver does a fair analysis.


9 posted on 08/10/2012 5:43:42 AM PDT by randita (Either the politicians fix our fiscal insanity, or the markets will.)
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To: hcmama

Think samples have anything to do with poll results?

Poll Result Sample
Gallup Obama +2 Dem +3.5
Rasmussen Romney +4 Dem +1.5
CBS/NYT Romney +1 Dem +4

CNN Obama +7 Dem +13
FOX Obama +9 Dem +9
Reuters Obama +7 Dem +11
Pew Obama +10 Dem +19
NBC Obama +6 Dem +11


10 posted on 08/10/2012 5:45:40 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: Perdogg
The fox poll, which was a RV poll and had +9 Dem model, had some very bad news for 0bama. Even with stacking the deck, Romeny had a +3 lead when it came to the economy

What was the sampling data (R vs D vs I) for the Fox poll? I can't get at that link at work. Thanks.

11 posted on 08/10/2012 5:49:51 AM PDT by ScottinVA (If Obama is reelected, America will deserve every mockery that follows.)
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To: Diogenesis; BlackElk
Because true Patriots, Conservatives, Evangelicals, and Constitution lovers see RINO myth romney for what he is a SOCIALIST! We have read his record as governor, and it reads DEMORAT LIBERAL, not Conservative. We do NOT want more of the same, we want REAL CHANGE. And you won't get that with the Myth the RINO.


12 posted on 08/10/2012 5:50:14 AM PDT by GailA (IF U will not keep your promises to the Military, U won't keep them to the public)
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To: hcmama

Plus we know how accurate the Obamedia polls have been the last few elections. They never pick up the Tea Party influence.

Pray for America


13 posted on 08/10/2012 5:50:36 AM PDT by bray (If you vote for a Communist, what's that make you?)
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To: hcmama

Most of the polls giving Obama a large lead are of registered voters.

Rasmussen has consistently shown Romney up by several points for a month or two. Gallup has consistently shown a tight race.

Network pundits, citing their polls, claim that Obama’s negative ads are working. But this hasn’t been reflected yet in Rasmussen or Gallup.

The last Fox poll showed a significant shift of independents away from Romney, but if they changed their minds once, they can change them again.

I think Romney is okay with where he is now or else he would be much more aggressive in his demeanor and ads. No need to waste the heavy artillery when no one is paying attention yet.

Romney will get a bounce with his VP announcement and also with the convention. Then he’ll begin the onslaught and I think it will be relentless.


14 posted on 08/10/2012 5:51:10 AM PDT by randita (Either the politicians fix our fiscal insanity, or the markets will.)
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To: ScottinVA

Disregard my previous.

Thanks for the breakdown, nhwingut.


15 posted on 08/10/2012 5:51:17 AM PDT by ScottinVA (If Obama is reelected, America will deserve every mockery that follows.)
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To: hcmama
I recall that the polls showed John Kerry ahead of Bush. The pollsters were even claiming the exit polls showed Kerry ahead.

I recall that Sharon Angle was also showing ahead of the polls in her race against Harry Reid.

I tend to take polls with a grain of salt.

Having said that, I do realize that an awful lot of the American people don't have the intelligence and discernment that God gave a rock.

16 posted on 08/10/2012 5:52:33 AM PDT by MEGoody (Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free.)
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To: randita

Silver states Romney does at least two points better on likely voter polls. He also stated August polls were really no more accurate than those in early July.


17 posted on 08/10/2012 5:54:48 AM PDT by hcmama
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To: hcmama
“Yeah, it's Pravda on the Hudson and all, and Nate is an avowed and open lefty, but this represents overall a pretty fair and thoughtful analysis.”

___

True as I see it. Romney had better get mean and tough real quick. If he doesn't start operating back alley dirty we are screwed. The “moral high ground” won't win any fights against Socialists and other assorted vermin.

18 posted on 08/10/2012 5:55:27 AM PDT by mongo141 (Revolution ver. 2.0, just a matter of when, not a matter of if!)
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To: randita

Romney does seem to take the view that no one is paying attention now. During the primaries he absorbed a lot of body blows before relentlessly unleashing on opponents. Whatever one thinks of his tactics in the primaries, I hope he rains down a veritable sh&&storm on Reverend Wright’s altar boy.


19 posted on 08/10/2012 6:05:33 AM PDT by hcmama
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To: mongo141

Yes, Romney BETTER start getting into the race here. Any time, Mittens......... waiting......... waiting......

And he better dump that incompetant Andrea Saul, so called moronic spokesperson that answered “If Soptic lived in Mass. he’d have Romney care”..... AAAAAAAAAAAAAACH! What a buffoon. You think THAT guy will dump Obamacare?

At this point, I see Romney bringing a feather to a gun fight.


20 posted on 08/10/2012 6:07:09 AM PDT by WaterWeWaitinFor (Can we still nominate someone else at the GOP convention? HHMM? Can we?)
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To: mongo141
Yes, Romney BETTER start getting into the race here. Any time, Mittens......... waiting......... waiting......

And he better dump that incompetent Andrea Saul, so called moronic spokesperson that answered “If Soptic lived in Mass. he'd have Romney care”..... AAAAAAAAAAAAAACH! What a buffoon. You think THAT guy will dump Obamacare?

At this point, I see Romney bringing a feather to a gun fight.

21 posted on 08/10/2012 6:15:39 AM PDT by WaterWeWaitinFor (Can we still nominate someone else at the GOP convention? HHMM? Can we?)
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To: hcmama
we've nominated another Bob Dole .... but he's all we've got for now

.

hold your nose (again) and vote for him

.

22 posted on 08/10/2012 6:22:06 AM PDT by Elle Bee
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To: 9422WMR

if Obama is still down 3 points by RVs in the Fox Poll on the economy and they over sampled the Dems by 9 points it’s not good news for Obama..


23 posted on 08/10/2012 6:22:47 AM PDT by Lib-Lickers 2
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To: Diogenesis
Why is not Obama losing by 80%?

Because at least 45% of our population has concluded that life on the dole could be pretty sweet.


24 posted on 08/10/2012 6:25:02 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: bkepley

Could it be that there are now over 100 million Americans on welfare? If this continues... 1/3 will ALWAYS vote for other people’s money.

LLS


25 posted on 08/10/2012 6:37:25 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (Don't Tread On Me)
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To: randita

Silver does a fair analysis.
+++++++++++++++
Yes he does. There is no doubt that Nate Silver is a highly competent analyst despite his obvious leftist views.

But his analysis still suffers from the garbage-in garbage-out problem. While he accounts for the RV vs LV problem (+2 for Romney with LV polls) it appears that he simply ignores the outrageous over-sampling of Ds that is a “feature” of a majority of the recent polls.


26 posted on 08/10/2012 6:38:35 AM PDT by InterceptPoint (.)
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To: MEGoody

Today’s Rassmussen tracking shows Romney maintaining a 4 point lead.


27 posted on 08/10/2012 6:40:45 AM PDT by hcmama
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To: Lib-Lickers 2
if Obama is still down 3 points by RVs in the Fox Poll on the economy and they over sampled the Dems by 9 points it’s not good news for Obama..

But Obama has improved his poll position on that question from 7 points down to only 3 points down in the past 2 months, so the trend is in his favor.

And the only other question that Romney leads Obama on is reducing the deficit. On every single other question, Romney is either only tied with or behind him, including handling foreign policy (-13), handling health care (-7), handling taxes (-3) and perhaps most significantly helping people achieve the American dream (-8).

Silver is certainly correct that it isn't panic time, but Romney needs to get cracking in the next few weeks to refocus the debate.
28 posted on 08/10/2012 6:56:30 AM PDT by drjimmy
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To: randita

You are correct. Obama is spending a load of money right now just to hold Romney down. Obama has not gained a single vote with his latest rounds of assaults.

Romney hasn’t begun his real spending barrage yet. In 4 weeks we will see a different picture.


29 posted on 08/10/2012 6:56:40 AM PDT by untwist
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To: hcmama

Romney’s campaign people will use this as a signal they need ro move further left—Just watch these fools


30 posted on 08/10/2012 7:10:28 AM PDT by uncbob
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To: ScottinVA

44 RATS
35 GOP
21 OTHERS


31 posted on 08/10/2012 7:17:37 AM PDT by Perdogg (Let's leave reading things in the Constitution that aren't there to liberals and Dems)
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To: Perdogg

“44 RATS
35 GOP
21 OTHERS”

Thanks. What surprises me is FNC is connected to such a sham poll. If the Dems were to turn out at +9 better than Repubs this time around we ARE truly sunk as a nation.


32 posted on 08/10/2012 7:20:52 AM PDT by ScottinVA (If Obama is reelected, America will deserve every mockery that follows.)
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To: hcmama

Number one, folks, do not pay any attention to polls, the Obamabot media is feeding you bogus information. The “real” campaign has yet to begin. The fact that Obama and his minions are resorting to the most negative and untrue political ads is proof they are in free fall and resorting to desparation tactics. Also, the demographics of recent primaries reveal a miserable Democrat turnout measured against a stunning Pubbie turnout.

My fear, however is that Romney is pulling a McCain campaign, whimp at best!!! I hope I will be proved dead wrong.

Shucks, I would have already named the VP candidate and had major attacks using the core issues on Obama & company, over and over again. See....folks I hail from NYC and am used to street fighting. Obama is a pure America hater, as is most of the Democrat Party. This election, IMHO, is it for America.

We either throw out Obama, or....we throw away our nation!!! That’s the whole story. And for me....Romney does not know how to street fight with these America destroyers, effectively. God knows, I am hoping I am dead wrong in my analysis!!!


33 posted on 08/10/2012 7:23:17 AM PDT by JLAGRAYFOX (My only objective is defeat and destroy Obama & his Democrat Party, politically!!!)
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To: hcmama

I think there is no doubt that the Obama / DNC attacks have hurt Romney. He has compounded it by not being on the airwaves combating them.

Has Obama struck a fatal blow? Probably not yet, but Romney is behind and has ground to make up.

If he continues to play it safe, he will continue to fall further behind and Obama and a number of FReepers will be ecstatic.


34 posted on 08/10/2012 7:30:27 AM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: WaterWeWaitinFor

Did you wait for Bush I in his re-election amble? He had a big gun on his hip but he never pulled out of the holster.


35 posted on 08/10/2012 7:32:37 AM PDT by arthurus (Read Hazlitt's Economics In One Lesson)
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To: InterceptPoint

I believe the oversampling is supposedly an estimate of how many more Democrats will actually vote than Republicans.


36 posted on 08/10/2012 7:35:25 AM PDT by arthurus (Read Hazlitt's Economics In One Lesson)
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To: arthurus
I believe the oversampling is supposedly an estimate of how many more Democrats will actually vote than Republicans.

That's correct. In 2008 Obama was +8 over McCain. In 2010, with the Tea Party energized Dem advantaged dropped to about +0. What will it be this year? I'm thinking it will look more like 2010 than 2008. If I'm right then Romney will win.

37 posted on 08/10/2012 7:43:39 AM PDT by InterceptPoint (.)
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To: comebacknewt
I think there is no doubt that the Obama / DNC attacks have hurt Romney. He has compounded it by not being on the airwaves combating them.

I think that is a fair criticism of Romney's campaign thus far. His response to the fascist tactics of the Chicago goon squad does not indicate any awareness of the fact that in Obama he is dealing with a punk thug who is barely containing his contempt for this country. It is up to Romney to rip the mask off Reverend Wright's altar boy and I have yet to be convinced he is willing to do the job.

38 posted on 08/10/2012 7:44:24 AM PDT by hcmama
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To: arthurus

That is true. But in 2008 at the height of hopey changey mania there was only a Dem +7 advantage in turnout. Does anyone really think that Obama will do better than that in 2012, especially after “Hope and Change” has now turned into “Hyped and Deranged?”


39 posted on 08/10/2012 7:47:54 AM PDT by hcmama
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To: hcmama

The truth is, ALL the pollsters and ALL the media looks forward to the presidential elections the same way the Mafia looks forward to the football season.

The Mafia doesn’t want gamblers to ever beat the spread so they juice the numbers to narrow the spread.

ALL pollsters and the media do the same thing, neither one wants a presidential race to appear to be one sided so they juice the numbers to tighten it up.

When the ‘game’ is in the last quarter, the pollsters stop juicing the numbers just to stay relevant for the ‘next season’.

All the media has to do is feign shock, stunned and surprised at the outcome. Then they bring out all their ‘experts’ to explain it all away to cover their asses.

Ret.


40 posted on 08/10/2012 7:54:55 AM PDT by RetSignman
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To: hcmama

My semi-official “poll” is the comment section of news articles on Yahoo ...


41 posted on 08/10/2012 9:14:09 AM PDT by spodefly (This is my tag line. There are many like it, but this one is mine.)
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To: Perdogg

“The fox poll, which was a RV poll and had +9 Dem model, had some very bad news for 0bama. Even with stacking the deck, Romeny had a +3 lead when it came to the economy.”

I don’t understand why polls would do this. This isn’t 2008! There simply aren’t 9% more Democrats than Republicans right now. That’s a ridiculously unrealistic population to be using.

Just by common sense, if Obama’s Job Approval is around 47%, he cannot possibly be up by 9 points. GWB’s number was 49.5, which translated to a lead of 3.5 nationally. So Obama might be ahead by 1 point, assuming a similar population to what we had in 2004.

However, I think in reality, there is more GOP enthusiasm vs. Dem. enthusiasm now than in 2004, not because Romney is any more liked than Kerry, but the GOP dissatisfaction with Obama is stronger than the Dem dissatisfaction against Bush was, at that time. (The dissatisfaction with Bush later became much stronger, but in 2004 was not so strong, except for the really firm Dems, who, of course, never liked him).

Plus I think Bush’s support among his base was stronger than Obama’s, because it was a broader base. In the Midwest, there was a ton of voters that voted for Bush because they were anti gay marriage and pro-life, for example. I don’t think there is a similar level of support for Obama across his base. They seem less engaged.

So a key ingredient to guessing what will happen in November is getting the population right as to who actually votes. It surely will not consist of 9% more Democrats than Republicans.


42 posted on 08/10/2012 9:47:23 AM PDT by TomEwall
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To: InterceptPoint

The national polling isn’t as critical as the battleground state polling. Romney needs to win say Ohio and Florida or else he’ll lose in the EC.


43 posted on 08/10/2012 12:17:09 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: 1010RD
The national polling isn’t as critical as the battleground state polling. Romney needs to win say Ohio and Florida or else he’ll lose in the EC.

That is true but, unless the election if very close, I think both national and state polling results will predict the same winner. I fully expect to wake up on November 6th, read the last Rasmussen national poll and know the outcome of the 2012 election in advance of the actual vote counting.

44 posted on 08/10/2012 12:34:16 PM PDT by InterceptPoint (.)
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To: InterceptPoint

I pray you are correct and the economy won’t recover before November so Obama cannot look to help from that direction. What else can go wrong and get Obama re-elected?


45 posted on 08/10/2012 1:13:14 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: GailA

You’d rather have a Muslim-hiding-in-plain sight than a patriotic American who happens to be a mormon.

how very Christian of you.

Go Vote for BO then.

God Save America from 4 more years of BO


46 posted on 08/10/2012 2:03:08 PM PDT by IWONDR
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To: hcmama

“It is up to Romney to rip the mask off Reverend Wright’s altar boy and I have yet to be convinced he is willing to do the job. “

From your lips to Romney’s campaign i would hope.


47 posted on 08/10/2012 2:15:33 PM PDT by IWONDR
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To: IWONDR

romney’s religion has nothing to do with my voting, his LEFTIST LIBERAL record as governor does.


48 posted on 08/11/2012 6:44:28 AM PDT by GailA (IF U will not keep your promises to the Military, U won't keep them to the public)
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