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CNN IS JUST MAKING UP POLL NUMBERS NOW
breitbart ^ | 10 Aug 2012 | MIKE FLYNN

Posted on 08/10/2012 8:21:55 AM PDT by barmag25

Okay, I'm not certain they are literally making up poll results, but the poll CNN and British market research firm ORC International released Thursday afternoon is so screwy and raises so many questions that they might as well be doing it intentionally. If CNN is already resorting to these kinds of tricks before the conventions have even started, it's going to be a very long campaign. First let me say, with less than three months to go in this campaign, can we please stop polling the political views of "adults", rather than "registered voters." We really should be moving soon to a "likely voter" screen, but I'll take "registered voters" for now. Knowing the political views of unregistered voters is worthless at the height of an election campaign and serves no real purpose but to give the Democrats an advantage. Nate Silver at the New York Times has estimated that polls of adults are biased towards Democrats by around 7 points.

(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: elections; obama; polling; romney
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
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1 posted on 08/10/2012 8:22:08 AM PDT by barmag25
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To: barmag25

I have to admit, after seeing the fox poll today, I am worried.

The only poll that is consistently good is Rasmussen. I know Ras was dead on in 04 and 08...so he is very good/unbiased. But he seems to be an outlier this time around.

Ras has it Romney +4
Fox has it Obama +9
CNN has it Obama +7

Thoughts anyone? Cheer me up on a Friday...


2 posted on 08/10/2012 8:26:43 AM PDT by Tulane
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To: barmag25

Pollsters know when to call and who to call to get the results they want.

I would only trust internal polls..

Since Obama is running scared and burning through cash like a drunken sailor at happy hour while begging the guy next to him at the bar for more money I think I have a good idea what his internals are showing him.


3 posted on 08/10/2012 8:27:24 AM PDT by cableguymn (For the first time in my life. I fear my country's government.)
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To: Tulane

Ras is the only polling service now that isn’t massively oversampling democrats in their polls.


4 posted on 08/10/2012 8:31:47 AM PDT by circlecity
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To: barmag25
The polls based on likely voters probably have their greatest meaning in that last month of the campaign. The polls based on registered voters are useful for fairly long term trend determination. The polls based on adults might be useful in giving you an idea of how randomly chosen individuals self-identify in terms of party, religion, occupation, work status, age, etc.

Lot of it depends on what you want to show or find.

With the current two candidates both sides suffer from a continuing trend of loss of popularity. The more people look at them and hear about them, and from them even, the less likable they become.

This is having a devastating impact on the pollsters. They can try to keep their problems under wraps for a while but eventually the "results" they report look just plain silly.

I have been predicting this since before January this year ~ if the GOP-e should manage to shoehorn their boy Romney into the main slot he would go through a process of deconstruction simultaneously with Obama and the 'lead' would seem to be changing hands as the pollsters found themselves forced to discard a growing pile of 'no response' interviews.

5 posted on 08/10/2012 8:32:56 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: barmag25
Push polling is big about this time during an upcoming election. Oboma has spent 2.6 million on push polling - and that was the total in in June.

The only polls that really matter are those about a week or so before the election. Pollers have to get as close as they can to stay competitive.

The polls we see today are bought and paid for. There's money to be had. My guess is this is when the pollers make most of their money. After that, they have to be more accurate.

Rasmussen seems to be the only polling outlet that doesn't play the game. It's the only poll I seriously pay attention to.

6 posted on 08/10/2012 8:32:56 AM PDT by concerned about politics ("Get thee behind me, Liberal")
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To: Tulane

Fox’s poll of registered voters with Obama +9 makes me nervous.


7 posted on 08/10/2012 8:33:20 AM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: barmag25
ORC is a London based polling company whose main client is the British government.

Why didn't CNN just use Acme Polling Inc.?

8 posted on 08/10/2012 8:33:34 AM PDT by AU72
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To: barmag25

It is in our best interests to make the pollsters look as foolish as possible.


9 posted on 08/10/2012 8:33:56 AM PDT by listenhillary (Courts, law enforcement, roads and national defense should be the extent of government)
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To: barmag25

Polls are a form of statistics, and statistics are made to be fudged.


10 posted on 08/10/2012 8:34:38 AM PDT by ozzymandus
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To: barmag25
...stop polling the political views of "adults", rather than "registered voters."...

The reason CNN polls 'adults' rather than registered voters is the category 'adults' include people too stupid to keep up with what's going on - and too lazy to get out of bed to vote...

In short, they're over polling 'liberals'....

CNN likes that because it deludes on-air elites into thinking the country is full of fellow liberal elites - rather than full of uneducated liberal lowlifes..

11 posted on 08/10/2012 8:34:49 AM PDT by GOPJ (Freeper Neveronmywatch's convinced - you put a compass in the hands of a liberal it'll point south.)
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To: cableguymn
... and burning through cash like a drunken sailor at happy hour while begging the guy next to him at the bar for more money...

That's his normal method of operation. It indicates nothing.

12 posted on 08/10/2012 8:34:49 AM PDT by ShadowAce (Linux -- The Ultimate Windows Service Pack)
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To: Tulane
Thoughts anyone? Cheer me up on a Friday...

Best I can do is say that all the polls are worthless at this point because history has shown us that the vast majority of voters don't even really start paying attention until after the conventions and the debates. If the polls still have Obama up by 9 on October 10, then you can start to worry...

13 posted on 08/10/2012 8:35:32 AM PDT by apillar
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To: Tulane
I remember driving to work on the morning of the Carter/Reagan election. My local radio station stated that the election was too close to call, but if they called it earlier it would be for Carter.

I left work at 4:30 PST and turned on the car radio only to hear that they were ready to announce a winner. My heart sank, until of course they announced the winner.

I think Carter won about 6 states.

Every since then, I really don't believe the polls.

For this election, buried in deepest blue California, I am seeing astonishing results when talking to my nephew's leftist friends. Believe me Obama is not popular with them. Most will probably not bother to vote.

14 posted on 08/10/2012 8:36:00 AM PDT by w1andsodidwe (Barrak has now won the contest. He is even worse than Jimmah.)
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To: KansasGirl

Rasmussen states that historically, the best indicator of an incumbent’s share of the vote is the approval rating of the president.

In every poll, I have seen Obama’s approval rating at around 42-44%. He will not win if those numbers stay the same.


15 posted on 08/10/2012 8:36:43 AM PDT by mrs9x
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To: Tulane
Fox has it Obama +9

That poll had 9% more democrats, and 115 Hispanic voters were added.

FOX just reports, but they pay no attention to the small print. The confusion is good for ratings.

16 posted on 08/10/2012 8:37:28 AM PDT by concerned about politics ("Get thee behind me, Liberal")
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To: Tulane

i can tell you this...i live in uber liberalsville; New Castle, NY- two miles from the clinton’s and one mile from RFK Jr....a couple of things:

1- four years ago 7 out of every ten cars in the area had an obama bumper sticker on them...now its one of every 40...in the past twelve hours i saw two separate cars with “DEFEAT OBAMA” stickers on them and am seeing more of those types of sticker- unheard of in this area...

2- on Tuesday, at a local Lions club, a former democrat woman held a press conference with media on hand and Tea Party members as she’s opening up a local chapter of Citizens for Romney....it was a Jewish woman from my gym who told me about it...this is unheard of in my area...

3- the Jews i speak with in my area cannot wait to vote against obama- these are people registered as democrats or independents...unheard of in this area...

4- our parish priest several weeks ago spoke of the war against Catholics and religion that is brewing in DC and said he fears Priests will be the first target- again, unheard of...

5- i am an avid watcher of the Olympics- trained for the decathlon for ten years...for the past two weeks my TV sets have been switching between NBC/MSNBC/NBCSports 24/7...why do i tell you this??? four years ago during the Bejing games every third commercial on MSNBC was touting their upcoming convention and election coverage as they knew obama was going to win...the past two weeks i saw one very tepid commercial on MSNBC about their upcoming election coverage...

i too was worried about the polls but just taking the temperature of an area that went 63% for obama i just don’t see it- this is Romney’s election to lose...then again maybe i should start worrying ;)


17 posted on 08/10/2012 8:39:47 AM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: Tulane
BTW, a lot of polls are based on the 2008 election. They take the % of democrats who voted back then, and the % of Republicans who voted back then, and use that same percentage for their polls. That's why most of the polls are democrat heavy. In 2008, a lot of Republicans stayed home. All they had was McCain.
Today, people see Oboma is not the returned Messiah, but the pollsters still use the same 2008 % anyway.
18 posted on 08/10/2012 8:42:13 AM PDT by concerned about politics ("Get thee behind me, Liberal")
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To: Tulane

dang! How’s Obama doing so good with Fox?


19 posted on 08/10/2012 8:42:38 AM PDT by MNDude ( Victimhood is the Holy Grail of liberalism)
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To: KansasGirl

I haven’t seen the numbers behind the +9... I’d bet they way over sampled the democrats on that one.


20 posted on 08/10/2012 8:43:46 AM PDT by cableguymn (For the first time in my life. I fear my country's government.)
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To: Tulane

This is close to over. Romney must say what he is going to do if elected clearly and without platitude and he must take a Tea Party VP. We are running out of time!!!


21 posted on 08/10/2012 8:44:04 AM PDT by marygonzo
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To: listenhillary

I agree. As a registered Republican I almost never get called to participate. But when I do I lie to them. It’s fun.


22 posted on 08/10/2012 8:44:29 AM PDT by Afterguard (Liberals will let you do anything you want, as long as it's mandatory.)
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To: barmag25; Tony Snow

Tony Snow on polls:

“The third news-cycle pox: Polls. Polls provide a ripe source for conflict because pollsters regularly reduce complex questions to queries of mind-numbing simplicity: Do you want America out of the war? Would you like it if the government guaranteed health care? Should the government guarantee full employment? Should we spend more on education? Should we cut your taxes? The answer to each of the above is, “Well, sure!” But note that the questions are asked in a vacuum, as if the object of a respondent’s desire could be had for free, without consequences. Pollsters routinely ask if people would like something unobtainable - guaranteed employment, for example - and politicians take the wistful answers as holy writ. Someone opposed to a guaranteed employment scheme can expect to be accused of supporting joblessness or hating the poor, at which point the mud would fly on both sides - all because of a poll question based on an idiotic assumption. Dumb questions beget dumb debate. In short, media organizations have been seduced by process, conflict and polling stories, and along the way have sacrificed the tradition of looking for creative ways to understand and explain the world. They have become hostages to the easy and shallow stuff and strangers to stories that touch people’s hearts and characterize their actual lives. Indeed, journalists seem to have developed an elitist contempt for the daily concerns of viewers, listeners and readers - and the public has noticed. This explains the across-the-board slippage in newspaper circulation, and viewership of broadcast and cable news.”


23 posted on 08/10/2012 8:45:08 AM PDT by Liberty Valance (Keep a simple manner for a happy life :o)
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To: ShadowAce

Ya but his drinks are getting stronger and he’s not really asking the guy next to him any more. He is just short of taking the guys wallet.


24 posted on 08/10/2012 8:46:11 AM PDT by cableguymn (For the first time in my life. I fear my country's government.)
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To: mrs9x
"In every poll, I have seen Obama’s approval rating at around 42-44%. He will not win if those numbers stay the same."

Unless Romney's numbers are in the 30s. Think about it 75% of this forum either has little enthusiasm for or is openly hostile to Romney. Extrapolate that out over the conservative landscape. Also, Obama's attacks are highly negative, easily rebutted but brilliant and effective. They distract from every effort of Romney to talk the economy, and they create an uneraseable negative image of Romney as a cad. I've said before that Obama's people are following old time Chicago politics, but using Marshall McLuhan's media theories of the medium being far more important than the message. Whatever the objective reality, Obama's ads and the screeds of Axelrod and Reid leave an imprint on the voter. And no one ever went broke betting against the intelligence of the American voter. Right now,IMO it's Rasmussen's poll that's the outlier, and I don't see the trend changing.

25 posted on 08/10/2012 8:49:53 AM PDT by xkaydet65
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To: barmag25

I wouldn’t worry yet. There are several big indicators that the polls showing Obama on top have bad samples however to be honest its very hard to get good samples because the number of people who are participating in polls is a shrinking group. I for one do not believe Romney is running nearly as strong as he should or could be. There have been several polls where both he and Obama are under 40% in the same poll.

That aside when you see polls that give Democrats an advantage that equals or exceeds 2008 you should be able to sleep easy knowing that just isn’t going to happen.

I think the MO primary results and the WI recall results should help put you at ease. Both indicate a really animated conservative base. Democrat turnout was really poor in MO and 7% of those who voted in the Democrat governor primary did not vote for McCaskill. I’d be wary of national polling of RV. There are other indicators with Obama having lost huge ground even in deep blue states like CT where he won by 23 points 2008 and recent polls showing him leading Romney by only 8 points.

Romney will have to try really hard to lose but the past few days haven’t encouraged me with his non support for Chikfila, supporting gay scoutmasters, and defending Romneycare but the key thing that we ultimately make a different I believe is Romney’s VP pick. He picks wrong and it could give Obama a life line but even that I doubt. Obama is so far gone I believe its going to be hard for Romney to lose.


26 posted on 08/10/2012 8:50:08 AM PDT by Maelstorm (Now lets return to our regular scheduled deprogramming.)
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To: w1andsodidwe
I am seeing astonishing results when talking to my nephew's leftist friends.

Liberals are notorious racists.

If obama isn't doing anything for them, he's just another "black person."

27 posted on 08/10/2012 8:51:15 AM PDT by HIDEK6
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To: marygonzo

[This is close to over. Romney must say what he is going to do if elected clearly and without platitude and he must take a Tea Party VP. We are running out of time!!!]

Chicken little much? It is far from over. We haven’t even had the conventions yet. If the election were held today, I think Obama would lose.


28 posted on 08/10/2012 8:52:05 AM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: God luvs America
trained for the decathlon for ten years..

I think you have to compete in 10 events, not train for 10 years.

29 posted on 08/10/2012 8:54:30 AM PDT by HIDEK6
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To: Tulane

Take out the 7%-9% Democrat oversampling bias in the Fox and CNN polls, and they then come more into line with Ras. Also keep in mind that Ras polls likely voters; the other two do not. So unless you account for these discrepancies, comparing Fox or CNN polls to Ras is apples and oranges.


30 posted on 08/10/2012 8:57:52 AM PDT by kevao
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To: barmag25

” CNN IS JUST MAKING UP POLL NUMBERS NOW”

And have been, and will continue to do so. Polls these days are mostly propaganda.


31 posted on 08/10/2012 8:59:54 AM PDT by GenXteacher (You have chosen dishonor to avoid war; you shall have war also.)
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To: Tulane
"But he seems to be an outlier this time around....Cheer me up on a Friday..."

I take all polls between Memorial day and Labor day with more than a grain of salt because people with jobs and families tend to go away on vacation between Memorial Day and Labor Day. Or at least spend weekends at the beach or in the mountains. Since the economy is not in quite as bad shape as it was a couple of years ago, people with a few dollars to spend might be just a little more inclined to take the kids on vacation than they were in 2010.

So it's very encouraging that Rasmussen's polling has shown Romney ahead by 4 in mid-week polling. Today's poll, for example, reflects a 3-day average of numbers obtained on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday nights. Note also that Gallup has Obama +2, on a 7 day rolling average of registered, not likely voters. IMO, they're still undercounting Republicans by polling registered voters, though. Gallup has been polling since FDR, so I'd weigh this more than the outfits that Fox, WSJ and the networks use.

After Labor day, the vacationers should come back home and will be available to be polled, so the Republican/conservative numbers should improve. By election time, the pollsters should all show whatever Rasmussen trend shows, so they won't look like complete idiots when they hawk their polling for the next cycle. Really, Democrats do not outnumber Republicans by 9% of likely voters, and any poll that concludes it is worthless.

32 posted on 08/10/2012 8:59:54 AM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: KansasGirl

>> Fox’s poll of registered voters with Obama +9 makes me nervous.

This poll doesn’t make me any more nervous than I already am. :-)

It does make me laugh, though. Barky had a *very* good year in 2008, and in the final tally he didn’t score +9 over a pathetic McCain.

With all the water under the bridge, there is no possible way the big O is that far ahead.


33 posted on 08/10/2012 8:59:54 AM PDT by Nervous Tick (Love the cult, respect the leader, but I simply can't drink the koolaid and die.)
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To: barmag25
We saw what happened in 2010 because of Obomacare and the spending. Add homosexual pseudo "marriage" and taxpayer paid abortion pills (especially with the Catholic church deal) to that, and I don't think the American voters are going to like Oboma very much.

The churches who supported his "for the sake of the poor and needy" crap in 2008 aren't going to be as friendly this time. He's forcing them, by dictate, to go against their conscience.

34 posted on 08/10/2012 9:00:42 AM PDT by concerned about politics ("Get thee behind me, Liberal")
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To: Liberty Valance; saveliberty; FOXFANVOX

Dear God, how I miss Tony Snow!

Do you have any idea of what Tony would say to all these FReepers who willingly help Obama?

Your citing him is wonderful. Thank You!


35 posted on 08/10/2012 9:00:53 AM PDT by Loud Mime (Pride-filled, judgmental christians do not qualify to be Christians)
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To: Tulane

follow Rasmussen AND Gallup tracking polls together. Together they were right on the money in 2004 and 2004


36 posted on 08/10/2012 9:05:03 AM PDT by Bulwinkle (Alec, a.k.a. Daffy Duck)
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To: barmag25

Smell that? Smells like desperation....

37 posted on 08/10/2012 9:06:42 AM PDT by McGruff (Support your local Republican candidates. They are our last line of defense.)
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To: o2bfree

Concern Troll Alert!



Watch out for liberals posting on FR just to "raise concerns" in order to demoralize our troops. All the Oh No! all is lost posts are starting to look a little fake.
38 posted on 08/10/2012 9:06:42 AM PDT by o2bfree
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To: Tulane

Rasmussen is the only polling I would pay any attention too. The news stations polls are just a way to make a quick and cheap story to advance their agendas. Rasmussen polls day in and day out, so I think their results are more trustworthy.


39 posted on 08/10/2012 9:07:12 AM PDT by chaos_5
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To: Tulane
If you look closely at the local polls or the specific group questions on some of the statewide polls, you'll see numbers that absolutely do NOT correlate with this. Three examples:

A CT state poll had Obama winning by 7, in a state he won by 20+ in 08. That same poll showed ROMNEY up significantly among independents . . . in CT!!

A Northern VA poll had Zero winning by two in that part of the state. But in 08, he won that part of the state by 23. If he only wins that by 2, he'll lose VA solidly.

An AARP poll of seniors in FL two days ago had them favoring ROMNEY. Huh? If seniors in FL are going Romney---a key Dem group---the Obama is toast there.

I think Ras is right, and has been consistently showing Romney with a 2-5 point lead.

40 posted on 08/10/2012 9:08:00 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: HIDEK6

thanks for the advice....granted if you don’t train you end up the obama of the decathlon...


41 posted on 08/10/2012 9:08:00 AM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: KansasGirl
Fox’s poll of registered voters with Obama +9 makes me nervous.

That is exactly what it’s supposed to do. Make you nervous so you tune in to hear the talking heads go on about what he’s going to do. Don’t trust any of the networks results, they only care about viewers and $$$
42 posted on 08/10/2012 9:10:12 AM PDT by chaos_5
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To: barmag25
Aug. 8, 2012, 8:46 AM | Presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney has pulled ahead to a rather stunning 5-point lead over President Barack Obama in the swing state of Colorado, according to a new Quinnipiac/CBS/New York Times poll.

CNN does at least test an Obama-Romney match-up among registered voters. It trumpets across its news page that, among registered voters, Obama is leading Romney 52-45

So Romney is winning in Colorado but losing nationally. Doesn’t make sense.

43 posted on 08/10/2012 9:16:12 AM PDT by mjp ((pro-{God, reality, reason, egoism, individualism, natural rights, limited government, capitalism}))
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To: Tulane

Another day, another poll to disprove.

44% of respondents self identified as Democrat
35% of respondents self identified as Republican

I am shocked that a poll which oversamples Democrats by 9 points shows Obama winning by 9 points! Shocked I say.

In 2008, during the height of the Hopium movement, Democrats turnout led by 8%....so it looks a little extreme to oversample Democrats by 9%.

But lets look at 2010 mid terms. Rat - 15.4 million. GOP -19.2 million. Ok, now a 9% dem oversample is looking a little fishy.

Look deeper into 2010: Rat turnout was up in 12 states, down in 30 (with record lows in 13 states). Gop was up in 39 states and down in 7....and they had record turnouts in 12 states. alright, now its starting to look like any poll that oversamples Rats by 9% is just complete garbage.

Now look even deeper into the midterms...at the ‘swing’ states. Rats had record low turnout in Florida, New Mexico, and North Carolina. The GOP had a record turnout in Florida. All those polls that say Barry is winning Florida - throw them out, they are oversampling. And any talk that Barry wins New Mexico or North Carolina....only after an oversampled poll is taken.


44 posted on 08/10/2012 9:30:44 AM PDT by lacrew (Mr. Soetoro, we regret to inform you that your race card is over the credit limit.)
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To: mjp
"So Romney is winning in Colorado but losing nationally. Doesn’t make sense."

No, but I'm not betting the farm on the the Quinnipiac Colorado poll, either. My guess is that it's closer there. Casual TV watchers often make the assumption that all "experts" are equal, and they all know what they're doing. Or at least have a clue. I beg to differ.

45 posted on 08/10/2012 9:31:41 AM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: concerned about politics

BTW, a lot of polls are based on the 2008 election. They take the % of democrats who voted back then, and the % of Republicans who voted back then, and use that same percentage for their polls. That’s why most of the polls are democrat heavy. In 2008, a lot of Republicans stayed home. All they had was McCain.

Today, people see Oboma is not the returned Messiah, but the pollsters still use the same 2008 % anyway.
+++++++++++++++++
Your post should be required reading for Freepers. If you don’t read it, Jim should pull your membership.


46 posted on 08/10/2012 9:31:41 AM PDT by InterceptPoint (.)
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To: Tulane
I don't know, I'm with you about Rasmussen. He seems the only one who is actually polling for an accurate result. Everyone else (including FOX!) are over-sampling DEMs on their polls. Over at Sweetness & Light they show that the over-sample is exactly the difference between Zero and Romney.

So, what the h*** is going on over at Fox?

47 posted on 08/10/2012 9:33:57 AM PDT by LibertarianLiz
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To: cableguymn
Since Obama is running scared and burning through cash like a drunken sailor at happy hour while begging the guy next to him at the bar for more money I think I have a good idea what his internals are showing him.

Yes, and the fact that he is having to spend a lot of time in states that he won the last time because he is behind or dead even at the moment, adds to my speculation that (as you say) the internals must be very bad for him.

48 posted on 08/10/2012 9:35:57 AM PDT by LibertarianLiz
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To: God luvs America

Did you go oot and aboot August 1? Try to get a Chick Fil A, perhaps? How many of those CFA supporters do you think will vote for Mr. Supports Gay Marriage? Huh? That’s the poll I trust.


49 posted on 08/10/2012 9:37:30 AM PDT by sportutegrl
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To: Tulane

I think it’s very reasonable to believe that Obama is ahead, maybe far ahead.

The People are enraptured by lies, just as Theoden was by Grima Wormtongue. The People believe in lots of free sh*t, equality of results as an appropriate government responsibility, no responsibility for the financial consequences of their sexual and gluttonous behaviors, that “single moms” are heroic figures who deserve tons of OPM, and lots of other things.

If YOU believe in those things, Obama is your guy.


50 posted on 08/10/2012 9:37:59 AM PDT by Jim Noble (Diseases desperate grown are by desperate appliance relieved or not at all.)
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