Skip to comments.CNN IS JUST MAKING UP POLL NUMBERS NOW
Posted on 08/10/2012 8:21:55 AM PDT by barmag25
Okay, I'm not certain they are literally making up poll results, but the poll CNN and British market research firm ORC International released Thursday afternoon is so screwy and raises so many questions that they might as well be doing it intentionally. If CNN is already resorting to these kinds of tricks before the conventions have even started, it's going to be a very long campaign. First let me say, with less than three months to go in this campaign, can we please stop polling the political views of "adults", rather than "registered voters." We really should be moving soon to a "likely voter" screen, but I'll take "registered voters" for now. Knowing the political views of unregistered voters is worthless at the height of an election campaign and serves no real purpose but to give the Democrats an advantage. Nate Silver at the New York Times has estimated that polls of adults are biased towards Democrats by around 7 points.
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I have to admit, after seeing the fox poll today, I am worried.
The only poll that is consistently good is Rasmussen. I know Ras was dead on in 04 and 08...so he is very good/unbiased. But he seems to be an outlier this time around.
Ras has it Romney +4
Fox has it Obama +9
CNN has it Obama +7
Thoughts anyone? Cheer me up on a Friday...
Pollsters know when to call and who to call to get the results they want.
I would only trust internal polls..
Since Obama is running scared and burning through cash like a drunken sailor at happy hour while begging the guy next to him at the bar for more money I think I have a good idea what his internals are showing him.
Ras is the only polling service now that isn’t massively oversampling democrats in their polls.
Lot of it depends on what you want to show or find.
With the current two candidates both sides suffer from a continuing trend of loss of popularity. The more people look at them and hear about them, and from them even, the less likable they become.
This is having a devastating impact on the pollsters. They can try to keep their problems under wraps for a while but eventually the "results" they report look just plain silly.
I have been predicting this since before January this year ~ if the GOP-e should manage to shoehorn their boy Romney into the main slot he would go through a process of deconstruction simultaneously with Obama and the 'lead' would seem to be changing hands as the pollsters found themselves forced to discard a growing pile of 'no response' interviews.
The only polls that really matter are those about a week or so before the election. Pollers have to get as close as they can to stay competitive.
The polls we see today are bought and paid for. There's money to be had. My guess is this is when the pollers make most of their money. After that, they have to be more accurate.
Rasmussen seems to be the only polling outlet that doesn't play the game. It's the only poll I seriously pay attention to.
Fox’s poll of registered voters with Obama +9 makes me nervous.
Why didn't CNN just use Acme Polling Inc.?
It is in our best interests to make the pollsters look as foolish as possible.
Polls are a form of statistics, and statistics are made to be fudged.
The reason CNN polls 'adults' rather than registered voters is the category 'adults' include people too stupid to keep up with what's going on - and too lazy to get out of bed to vote...
In short, they're over polling 'liberals'....
CNN likes that because it deludes on-air elites into thinking the country is full of fellow liberal elites - rather than full of uneducated liberal lowlifes..
That's his normal method of operation. It indicates nothing.
Best I can do is say that all the polls are worthless at this point because history has shown us that the vast majority of voters don't even really start paying attention until after the conventions and the debates. If the polls still have Obama up by 9 on October 10, then you can start to worry...
I left work at 4:30 PST and turned on the car radio only to hear that they were ready to announce a winner. My heart sank, until of course they announced the winner.
I think Carter won about 6 states.
Every since then, I really don't believe the polls.
For this election, buried in deepest blue California, I am seeing astonishing results when talking to my nephew's leftist friends. Believe me Obama is not popular with them. Most will probably not bother to vote.
Rasmussen states that historically, the best indicator of an incumbent’s share of the vote is the approval rating of the president.
In every poll, I have seen Obama’s approval rating at around 42-44%. He will not win if those numbers stay the same.
That poll had 9% more democrats, and 115 Hispanic voters were added.
FOX just reports, but they pay no attention to the small print. The confusion is good for ratings.
i can tell you this...i live in uber liberalsville; New Castle, NY- two miles from the clinton’s and one mile from RFK Jr....a couple of things:
1- four years ago 7 out of every ten cars in the area had an obama bumper sticker on them...now its one of every 40...in the past twelve hours i saw two separate cars with “DEFEAT OBAMA” stickers on them and am seeing more of those types of sticker- unheard of in this area...
2- on Tuesday, at a local Lions club, a former democrat woman held a press conference with media on hand and Tea Party members as she’s opening up a local chapter of Citizens for Romney....it was a Jewish woman from my gym who told me about it...this is unheard of in my area...
3- the Jews i speak with in my area cannot wait to vote against obama- these are people registered as democrats or independents...unheard of in this area...
4- our parish priest several weeks ago spoke of the war against Catholics and religion that is brewing in DC and said he fears Priests will be the first target- again, unheard of...
5- i am an avid watcher of the Olympics- trained for the decathlon for ten years...for the past two weeks my TV sets have been switching between NBC/MSNBC/NBCSports 24/7...why do i tell you this??? four years ago during the Bejing games every third commercial on MSNBC was touting their upcoming convention and election coverage as they knew obama was going to win...the past two weeks i saw one very tepid commercial on MSNBC about their upcoming election coverage...
i too was worried about the polls but just taking the temperature of an area that went 63% for obama i just don’t see it- this is Romney’s election to lose...then again maybe i should start worrying ;)
dang! How’s Obama doing so good with Fox?
I haven’t seen the numbers behind the +9... I’d bet they way over sampled the democrats on that one.