Skip to comments.CNN IS JUST MAKING UP POLL NUMBERS NOW
Posted on 08/10/2012 8:21:55 AM PDT by barmag25
Okay, I'm not certain they are literally making up poll results, but the poll CNN and British market research firm ORC International released Thursday afternoon is so screwy and raises so many questions that they might as well be doing it intentionally. If CNN is already resorting to these kinds of tricks before the conventions have even started, it's going to be a very long campaign. First let me say, with less than three months to go in this campaign, can we please stop polling the political views of "adults", rather than "registered voters." We really should be moving soon to a "likely voter" screen, but I'll take "registered voters" for now. Knowing the political views of unregistered voters is worthless at the height of an election campaign and serves no real purpose but to give the Democrats an advantage. Nate Silver at the New York Times has estimated that polls of adults are biased towards Democrats by around 7 points.
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I have to admit, after seeing the fox poll today, I am worried.
The only poll that is consistently good is Rasmussen. I know Ras was dead on in 04 and 08...so he is very good/unbiased. But he seems to be an outlier this time around.
Ras has it Romney +4
Fox has it Obama +9
CNN has it Obama +7
Thoughts anyone? Cheer me up on a Friday...
Pollsters know when to call and who to call to get the results they want.
I would only trust internal polls..
Since Obama is running scared and burning through cash like a drunken sailor at happy hour while begging the guy next to him at the bar for more money I think I have a good idea what his internals are showing him.
Ras is the only polling service now that isn’t massively oversampling democrats in their polls.
Lot of it depends on what you want to show or find.
With the current two candidates both sides suffer from a continuing trend of loss of popularity. The more people look at them and hear about them, and from them even, the less likable they become.
This is having a devastating impact on the pollsters. They can try to keep their problems under wraps for a while but eventually the "results" they report look just plain silly.
I have been predicting this since before January this year ~ if the GOP-e should manage to shoehorn their boy Romney into the main slot he would go through a process of deconstruction simultaneously with Obama and the 'lead' would seem to be changing hands as the pollsters found themselves forced to discard a growing pile of 'no response' interviews.
The only polls that really matter are those about a week or so before the election. Pollers have to get as close as they can to stay competitive.
The polls we see today are bought and paid for. There's money to be had. My guess is this is when the pollers make most of their money. After that, they have to be more accurate.
Rasmussen seems to be the only polling outlet that doesn't play the game. It's the only poll I seriously pay attention to.
Fox’s poll of registered voters with Obama +9 makes me nervous.
Why didn't CNN just use Acme Polling Inc.?
It is in our best interests to make the pollsters look as foolish as possible.
Polls are a form of statistics, and statistics are made to be fudged.
The reason CNN polls 'adults' rather than registered voters is the category 'adults' include people too stupid to keep up with what's going on - and too lazy to get out of bed to vote...
In short, they're over polling 'liberals'....
CNN likes that because it deludes on-air elites into thinking the country is full of fellow liberal elites - rather than full of uneducated liberal lowlifes..
That's his normal method of operation. It indicates nothing.
Best I can do is say that all the polls are worthless at this point because history has shown us that the vast majority of voters don't even really start paying attention until after the conventions and the debates. If the polls still have Obama up by 9 on October 10, then you can start to worry...
I left work at 4:30 PST and turned on the car radio only to hear that they were ready to announce a winner. My heart sank, until of course they announced the winner.
I think Carter won about 6 states.
Every since then, I really don't believe the polls.
For this election, buried in deepest blue California, I am seeing astonishing results when talking to my nephew's leftist friends. Believe me Obama is not popular with them. Most will probably not bother to vote.
Rasmussen states that historically, the best indicator of an incumbent’s share of the vote is the approval rating of the president.
In every poll, I have seen Obama’s approval rating at around 42-44%. He will not win if those numbers stay the same.
That poll had 9% more democrats, and 115 Hispanic voters were added.
FOX just reports, but they pay no attention to the small print. The confusion is good for ratings.
i can tell you this...i live in uber liberalsville; New Castle, NY- two miles from the clinton’s and one mile from RFK Jr....a couple of things:
1- four years ago 7 out of every ten cars in the area had an obama bumper sticker on them...now its one of every 40...in the past twelve hours i saw two separate cars with “DEFEAT OBAMA” stickers on them and am seeing more of those types of sticker- unheard of in this area...
2- on Tuesday, at a local Lions club, a former democrat woman held a press conference with media on hand and Tea Party members as she’s opening up a local chapter of Citizens for Romney....it was a Jewish woman from my gym who told me about it...this is unheard of in my area...
3- the Jews i speak with in my area cannot wait to vote against obama- these are people registered as democrats or independents...unheard of in this area...
4- our parish priest several weeks ago spoke of the war against Catholics and religion that is brewing in DC and said he fears Priests will be the first target- again, unheard of...
5- i am an avid watcher of the Olympics- trained for the decathlon for ten years...for the past two weeks my TV sets have been switching between NBC/MSNBC/NBCSports 24/7...why do i tell you this??? four years ago during the Bejing games every third commercial on MSNBC was touting their upcoming convention and election coverage as they knew obama was going to win...the past two weeks i saw one very tepid commercial on MSNBC about their upcoming election coverage...
i too was worried about the polls but just taking the temperature of an area that went 63% for obama i just don’t see it- this is Romney’s election to lose...then again maybe i should start worrying ;)
dang! How’s Obama doing so good with Fox?
I haven’t seen the numbers behind the +9... I’d bet they way over sampled the democrats on that one.
This is close to over. Romney must say what he is going to do if elected clearly and without platitude and he must take a Tea Party VP. We are running out of time!!!
I agree. As a registered Republican I almost never get called to participate. But when I do I lie to them. It’s fun.
Tony Snow on polls:
“The third news-cycle pox: Polls. Polls provide a ripe source for conflict because pollsters regularly reduce complex questions to queries of mind-numbing simplicity: Do you want America out of the war? Would you like it if the government guaranteed health care? Should the government guarantee full employment? Should we spend more on education? Should we cut your taxes? The answer to each of the above is, Well, sure! But note that the questions are asked in a vacuum, as if the object of a respondents desire could be had for free, without consequences. Pollsters routinely ask if people would like something unobtainable - guaranteed employment, for example - and politicians take the wistful answers as holy writ. Someone opposed to a guaranteed employment scheme can expect to be accused of supporting joblessness or hating the poor, at which point the mud would fly on both sides - all because of a poll question based on an idiotic assumption. Dumb questions beget dumb debate. In short, media organizations have been seduced by process, conflict and polling stories, and along the way have sacrificed the tradition of looking for creative ways to understand and explain the world. They have become hostages to the easy and shallow stuff and strangers to stories that touch peoples hearts and characterize their actual lives. Indeed, journalists seem to have developed an elitist contempt for the daily concerns of viewers, listeners and readers - and the public has noticed. This explains the across-the-board slippage in newspaper circulation, and viewership of broadcast and cable news.”
Ya but his drinks are getting stronger and he’s not really asking the guy next to him any more. He is just short of taking the guys wallet.
Unless Romney's numbers are in the 30s. Think about it 75% of this forum either has little enthusiasm for or is openly hostile to Romney. Extrapolate that out over the conservative landscape. Also, Obama's attacks are highly negative, easily rebutted but brilliant and effective. They distract from every effort of Romney to talk the economy, and they create an uneraseable negative image of Romney as a cad. I've said before that Obama's people are following old time Chicago politics, but using Marshall McLuhan's media theories of the medium being far more important than the message. Whatever the objective reality, Obama's ads and the screeds of Axelrod and Reid leave an imprint on the voter. And no one ever went broke betting against the intelligence of the American voter. Right now,IMO it's Rasmussen's poll that's the outlier, and I don't see the trend changing.
I wouldn’t worry yet. There are several big indicators that the polls showing Obama on top have bad samples however to be honest its very hard to get good samples because the number of people who are participating in polls is a shrinking group. I for one do not believe Romney is running nearly as strong as he should or could be. There have been several polls where both he and Obama are under 40% in the same poll.
That aside when you see polls that give Democrats an advantage that equals or exceeds 2008 you should be able to sleep easy knowing that just isn’t going to happen.
I think the MO primary results and the WI recall results should help put you at ease. Both indicate a really animated conservative base. Democrat turnout was really poor in MO and 7% of those who voted in the Democrat governor primary did not vote for McCaskill. I’d be wary of national polling of RV. There are other indicators with Obama having lost huge ground even in deep blue states like CT where he won by 23 points 2008 and recent polls showing him leading Romney by only 8 points.
Romney will have to try really hard to lose but the past few days haven’t encouraged me with his non support for Chikfila, supporting gay scoutmasters, and defending Romneycare but the key thing that we ultimately make a different I believe is Romney’s VP pick. He picks wrong and it could give Obama a life line but even that I doubt. Obama is so far gone I believe its going to be hard for Romney to lose.
Liberals are notorious racists.
If obama isn't doing anything for them, he's just another "black person."
[This is close to over. Romney must say what he is going to do if elected clearly and without platitude and he must take a Tea Party VP. We are running out of time!!!]
Chicken little much? It is far from over. We haven’t even had the conventions yet. If the election were held today, I think Obama would lose.
I think you have to compete in 10 events, not train for 10 years.
Take out the 7%-9% Democrat oversampling bias in the Fox and CNN polls, and they then come more into line with Ras. Also keep in mind that Ras polls likely voters; the other two do not. So unless you account for these discrepancies, comparing Fox or CNN polls to Ras is apples and oranges.
” CNN IS JUST MAKING UP POLL NUMBERS NOW”
And have been, and will continue to do so. Polls these days are mostly propaganda.
I take all polls between Memorial day and Labor day with more than a grain of salt because people with jobs and families tend to go away on vacation between Memorial Day and Labor Day. Or at least spend weekends at the beach or in the mountains. Since the economy is not in quite as bad shape as it was a couple of years ago, people with a few dollars to spend might be just a little more inclined to take the kids on vacation than they were in 2010.
So it's very encouraging that Rasmussen's polling has shown Romney ahead by 4 in mid-week polling. Today's poll, for example, reflects a 3-day average of numbers obtained on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday nights. Note also that Gallup has Obama +2, on a 7 day rolling average of registered, not likely voters. IMO, they're still undercounting Republicans by polling registered voters, though. Gallup has been polling since FDR, so I'd weigh this more than the outfits that Fox, WSJ and the networks use.
After Labor day, the vacationers should come back home and will be available to be polled, so the Republican/conservative numbers should improve. By election time, the pollsters should all show whatever Rasmussen trend shows, so they won't look like complete idiots when they hawk their polling for the next cycle. Really, Democrats do not outnumber Republicans by 9% of likely voters, and any poll that concludes it is worthless.
>> Foxs poll of registered voters with Obama +9 makes me nervous.
This poll doesn’t make me any more nervous than I already am. :-)
It does make me laugh, though. Barky had a *very* good year in 2008, and in the final tally he didn’t score +9 over a pathetic McCain.
With all the water under the bridge, there is no possible way the big O is that far ahead.
The churches who supported his "for the sake of the poor and needy" crap in 2008 aren't going to be as friendly this time. He's forcing them, by dictate, to go against their conscience.
Dear God, how I miss Tony Snow!
Do you have any idea of what Tony would say to all these FReepers who willingly help Obama?
Your citing him is wonderful. Thank You!
follow Rasmussen AND Gallup tracking polls together. Together they were right on the money in 2004 and 2004
Smell that? Smells like desperation....
Rasmussen is the only polling I would pay any attention too. The news stations polls are just a way to make a quick and cheap story to advance their agendas. Rasmussen polls day in and day out, so I think their results are more trustworthy.
A CT state poll had Obama winning by 7, in a state he won by 20+ in 08. That same poll showed ROMNEY up significantly among independents . . . in CT!!
A Northern VA poll had Zero winning by two in that part of the state. But in 08, he won that part of the state by 23. If he only wins that by 2, he'll lose VA solidly.
An AARP poll of seniors in FL two days ago had them favoring ROMNEY. Huh? If seniors in FL are going Romney---a key Dem group---the Obama is toast there.
I think Ras is right, and has been consistently showing Romney with a 2-5 point lead.
thanks for the advice....granted if you don’t train you end up the obama of the decathlon...
CNN does at least test an Obama-Romney match-up among registered voters. It trumpets across its news page that, among registered voters, Obama is leading Romney 52-45
So Romney is winning in Colorado but losing nationally. Doesnt make sense.
Another day, another poll to disprove.
44% of respondents self identified as Democrat
35% of respondents self identified as Republican
I am shocked that a poll which oversamples Democrats by 9 points shows Obama winning by 9 points! Shocked I say.
In 2008, during the height of the Hopium movement, Democrats turnout led by 8%....so it looks a little extreme to oversample Democrats by 9%.
But lets look at 2010 mid terms. Rat - 15.4 million. GOP -19.2 million. Ok, now a 9% dem oversample is looking a little fishy.
Look deeper into 2010: Rat turnout was up in 12 states, down in 30 (with record lows in 13 states). Gop was up in 39 states and down in 7....and they had record turnouts in 12 states. alright, now its starting to look like any poll that oversamples Rats by 9% is just complete garbage.
Now look even deeper into the midterms...at the ‘swing’ states. Rats had record low turnout in Florida, New Mexico, and North Carolina. The GOP had a record turnout in Florida. All those polls that say Barry is winning Florida - throw them out, they are oversampling. And any talk that Barry wins New Mexico or North Carolina....only after an oversampled poll is taken.
No, but I'm not betting the farm on the the Quinnipiac Colorado poll, either. My guess is that it's closer there. Casual TV watchers often make the assumption that all "experts" are equal, and they all know what they're doing. Or at least have a clue. I beg to differ.
BTW, a lot of polls are based on the 2008 election. They take the % of democrats who voted back then, and the % of Republicans who voted back then, and use that same percentage for their polls. That’s why most of the polls are democrat heavy. In 2008, a lot of Republicans stayed home. All they had was McCain.
Today, people see Oboma is not the returned Messiah, but the pollsters still use the same 2008 % anyway.
Your post should be required reading for Freepers. If you don’t read it, Jim should pull your membership.
So, what the h*** is going on over at Fox?
Yes, and the fact that he is having to spend a lot of time in states that he won the last time because he is behind or dead even at the moment, adds to my speculation that (as you say) the internals must be very bad for him.
Did you go oot and aboot August 1? Try to get a Chick Fil A, perhaps? How many of those CFA supporters do you think will vote for Mr. Supports Gay Marriage? Huh? That’s the poll I trust.
I think it’s very reasonable to believe that Obama is ahead, maybe far ahead.
The People are enraptured by lies, just as Theoden was by Grima Wormtongue. The People believe in lots of free sh*t, equality of results as an appropriate government responsibility, no responsibility for the financial consequences of their sexual and gluttonous behaviors, that “single moms” are heroic figures who deserve tons of OPM, and lots of other things.
If YOU believe in those things, Obama is your guy.