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Hundred-Year Forecast: Drought (So sez the New York Times...)
New York Times ^

Posted on 08/12/2012 5:20:07 PM PDT by Sub-Driver

Hundred-Year Forecast: Drought By CHRISTOPHER R. SCHWALM, CHRISTOPHER A. WILLIAMS and KEVIN SCHAEFER

BY many measurements, this summer’s drought is one for the record books. But so was last year’s drought in the South Central states. And it has been only a decade since an extreme five-year drought hit the American West. Widespread annual droughts, once a rare calamity, have become more frequent and are set to become the “new normal.”

Until recently, many scientists spoke of climate change mainly as a “threat,” sometime in the future. But it is increasingly clear that we already live in the era of human-induced climate change, with a growing frequency of weather and climate extremes like heat waves, droughts, floods and fires.

Future precipitation trends, based on climate model projections for the coming fifth assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, indicate that droughts of this length and severity will be commonplace through the end of the century unless human-induced carbon emissions are significantly reduced. Indeed, assuming business as usual, each of the next 80 years in the American West is expected to see less rainfall than the average of the five years of the drought that hit the region from 2000 to 2004.

That extreme drought (which we have analyzed in a new study in the journal Nature-Geoscience) had profound consequences for carbon sequestration, agricultural productivity and water resources: plants, for example, took in only half the carbon dioxide they do normally, thanks to a drought-induced drop in photosynthesis.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: climatechange; globalwarming; globalwarminghoax
Paging Chicken Little..........
1 posted on 08/12/2012 5:20:12 PM PDT by Sub-Driver
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To: Sub-Driver

These mopes can’t tell if it’s gonna rain nest Tuesday.


2 posted on 08/12/2012 5:23:18 PM PDT by jessduntno ("Clamo, clamatis, omnes clamamus pro glace lactis." - Universal truth.)
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To: Sub-Driver

These mopes can’t tell if it’s gonna rain next Tuesday.


3 posted on 08/12/2012 5:23:41 PM PDT by jessduntno ("Clamo, clamatis, omnes clamamus pro glace lactis." - Universal truth.)
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To: Sub-Driver

The southern Michigan drought has broken thank God. Unfortunately it was too little, too late.

Maybe next year.


4 posted on 08/12/2012 5:24:47 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: Sub-Driver

I grew up in the west. There were several memorable droughts during my childhood. I also remember reading in Time or Newsweek that all of North Ameica was going to become Artic like - covered with snow and ice.

Seeing how that turned out colors my view of the whole climate change crowd. Someone should explain to them about cylical weather patterns - using very small words, lots of pictures and brightly colored easy to understand graphs.


5 posted on 08/12/2012 5:28:58 PM PDT by Roses0508 (th)
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To: Sub-Driver

So the Democrat house organ has taken to politicizing the weather


6 posted on 08/12/2012 5:30:03 PM PDT by chuckee
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To: Sub-Driver

I’m going to start stockpiling life jackets, rafts, small watercraft, and umbrellas.


7 posted on 08/12/2012 5:31:55 PM PDT by nascarnation
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To: chuckee
They are going to use it as an excuse for Obie's lousy economy. Bank on it. Obie goes from blaming Bush to blaming God.
8 posted on 08/12/2012 5:33:19 PM PDT by gov_bean_ counter (Too many thinking Freepers have left the building...)
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To: Sub-Driver

Saw the lede.

Went to the link without really looking.

Saw NYT...immediately left...nothing even resembling real science at the NYT.


9 posted on 08/12/2012 5:34:31 PM PDT by Da Coyote
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To: nascarnation

I better drag my boat up here by the house and tie it to the tree next to my bedroom winder.


10 posted on 08/12/2012 5:34:41 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: Roses0508

“Someone should explain to them...”

Facts wouldn’t mean diddly-squat. Their pea-brains are already so deeply-invested in AlGoreBullshit, it would only enrage them more. They’ve almost fully-infected the upcoming generation with it, now, and that’s going to be impossible to undo anytime soon.


11 posted on 08/12/2012 5:38:37 PM PDT by carriage_hill (Harry Reid [PERVERT-NV] has Vickie-the-goat in lingerie & stiletto heels, tied-up in his office.)
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To: Sub-Driver

This is not the first La Nina we have ever experienced and it will not be the last, but the New York Times never passes up an opportunity for demagoguery.


12 posted on 08/12/2012 5:39:10 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the sociopath.)
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To: Roses0508
These folks should take a look at a map of the northern U.S. and all of Canada east of the Rocky Mountains. All those blue things of various sizes and shapes are remnants of the Laurentide Ice Sheet from the last ice age, which only ended about 10,000 years ago (a very short period of time, in geological terms).

I challenge any of the dingbats who write these stupid "climate change" articles to tell me exactly what period of time in these last 10,000 years was "normal" in any comparative sense.

13 posted on 08/12/2012 5:40:55 PM PDT by Alberta's Child ("If you touch my junk, I'm gonna have you arrested.")
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To: cripplecreek
I better drag my boat up here by the house and tie it to the tree next to my bedroom winder.

You're not a native Michigander, only southerners know the real pronunciation of the word "window".

14 posted on 08/12/2012 5:41:13 PM PDT by Graybeard58 (If you fear Obama, you'll vote for Romney. If you fear God, you won't.)
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15 posted on 08/12/2012 5:46:23 PM PDT by RedMDer (https://support.woundedwarriorproject.org/default.aspx?tsid=93destr)
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To: Graybeard58

I’m native but we have a lot of southerners in my neck of the woods. Coon huntin and all.


16 posted on 08/12/2012 5:50:26 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: Sub-Driver
Well, it would seem the Anasazi Indians experienced climate change too, about the time of Christ. "...there is much speculation that the Anasazi left due to changing climates that shortened the crop growing season..."

Danged SUVs!!

17 posted on 08/12/2012 5:51:50 PM PDT by Islander7 (There is no septic system so vile, so filthy, the left won't drink from to further their agenda)
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To: Sub-Driver

In the West, it’s my understanding it’s not so much “the new normal” as a reversion to the historical mean.


18 posted on 08/12/2012 5:52:06 PM PDT by DuncanWaring (The Lord uses the good ones; the bad ones use the Lord.)
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To: jessduntno

“These mopes can’t tell if it’s gonna rain nest Tuesday.”

___

They can’t figure out which side of their a$$ goes in back in the morning.


19 posted on 08/12/2012 5:57:40 PM PDT by mongo141 (Revolution ver. 2.0, just a matter of when, not a matter of if!)
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To: Sub-Driver
If The Slimes predicts darkness at midnight, I'm setting my alarm to make sure.
20 posted on 08/12/2012 6:03:25 PM PDT by Happy Rain ("Not voting for Ryan? Obama love you long time.")
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To: Sub-Driver
Planetary warming, in turn, is expected to create drier conditions across western North America, because of the way global-wind and atmospheric-pressure patterns shift in response.

Bzzzzt, wrong. Droughts start and end naturally. The most that warming will do is create slightly higher high temperatures. The problem with the models is that they predict whatever the modelers want them to predict since they do not model weather and can't model or predict shifts in the weather.

21 posted on 08/12/2012 6:08:24 PM PDT by palmer (Jim, please bill me 50 cents for this completely useless post)
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To: Sub-Driver

God will hold the rains and punish us with drought until Obama is out of office and in prison.


22 posted on 08/12/2012 6:13:46 PM PDT by Uncle Slayton
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To: Sub-Driver

If the NYT sez so, I’m shorting water rights.


23 posted on 08/12/2012 6:15:06 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: Sub-Driver
But it is increasingly clear . . .

BS warning.

24 posted on 08/12/2012 6:41:26 PM PDT by Misterioso (They tried to get me to hate white people, but someone would always come along and spoil it. - Monk)
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To: Sub-Driver

As Texans know, there is no “normal” year in the Lone Star State. No one can forecast what next season’s weather will bring, much less what the climate will be in the next millennium. Only fools with an agenda try to divine such things.


25 posted on 08/12/2012 6:49:46 PM PDT by txrefugee
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To: Graybeard58

Maybe he has casement windows in his house, which would have a crank ( or winder)(long ‘i’) to open and close the window.

In other words a window winder.


26 posted on 08/12/2012 6:52:46 PM PDT by Ed Condon (Give 'em a heading, an altitude, and a reason.)
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To: Sub-Driver
We have weather records for 100 to 200 years; depending on where the location is.
That is out of how many years of weather? And these people think we know what “normal” is?
Hah...
27 posted on 08/12/2012 6:59:32 PM PDT by HereInTheHeartland (Encourage all of your Democrat friends to get out and vote on November 7th, the stakes are high.)
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To: Sub-Driver
Extreme drought is associated, not with climatic warming, but cooling. During ice ages, ice-sheets extend to much lower latitudes thereby locking up large quanitities of water vapor from the air into solid ice. In addition, the oceans cool and thereby reduce evaporation. Both processes (lock-up and reduced evaporation) lower the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere and thereby cause droughts.
28 posted on 08/12/2012 7:15:05 PM PDT by expat2
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To: Sub-Driver

“with a growing frequency of weather and climate extremes like heat waves, droughts, floods and fires. “

I didn’t know “fire” was a climate extreme.


29 posted on 08/12/2012 8:28:21 PM PDT by headstamp 2 (Liberalism: Carrying adolescent values and behavior into adult life.)
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To: Sub-Driver
Future precipitation trends, based on climate model projections for the coming fifth assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Duuuhhh! Liars figure. The 100 year drought in Texas was last year. Then we had a pretty normal winter, then it turned very dry again. It is the Sun stupid. Just came out of the longest and quietest sunspot minimum in my lifetime. Yes, weather is more variable, but the sky is not truly falling. Just Chicken Little Liars at Work.

30 posted on 08/12/2012 8:35:49 PM PDT by Texas Fossil (Government, even in its best state is but a necessary evil; in its worst state an intolerable one)
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To: Sub-Driver

Are these the same guys who predicted “20 Years” of more extreme hurricane weather after Katrina?

Yeah. Where’s my grain of salt?


31 posted on 08/12/2012 8:45:06 PM PDT by Thorliveshere
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To: Sub-Driver

>>>Future precipitation trends, based on climate model projections for the coming fifth assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, indicate that droughts of this length and severity will be commonplace through the end of the century unless human-induced carbon emissions are significantly reduced.<<<

I’ve read that California and the Southwest experienced about a century of drought in the 1300s and 1400s. Some think that’s the reason for the obliteration of the corn-growing pueblo cultures in the Southwest, too.

So very long droughts have been commonplace in the recent past.

Before that, during the Ice Age, rainfall and snowmelt was frequent enough in the same area to produce many large lakes, filled with trout, and widespread forest.

The question I always have for these folks is this: What’s the perfect climate? What’s the moment when you’ll say, “Eureka! We’re here!” If global warming is a problem, and global cooling is the solution, what’s the point at which we can stop mitigating the disaster?

As the left used to say to GW Bush, “What’s your exit strategy?”

I’d say throw this sh*t back in their faces. Ask them to describe their goal, in detail, down the degree, including descriptions of the kinds of climates for each geographical region of the Earth. If they’re concerned about the climate of the Arctic (to use a place where I live now), ask them to describe what it looks like when we arrive.

Of course, climate has been so variable up here in Alaska during the past 20,000 years that there is no reasonable answer. How about the moment 5,000 years ago when there were forests on the Seward Peninsula? How about the moment 18,000 years ago when the spruce trees outside my office window was grassland and sand dunes?

We’ll never get past this issue without directly addressing the emptiness of their propositions.

And speaking personally, I would love to grow apples on the shores of the Yukon up here. What’s wrong with that?


32 posted on 08/12/2012 9:09:08 PM PDT by redpoll
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To: Sub-Driver
Kinda remember that these same maroons were claiming that warmer air holds more moisture, therefore the heavy snows we got 2-3 years ago were due to climate change. So now the warmer air holds less moisture ? Those that learn science from the New York Times, deserve what they get.

And, we now know that warmer summers do not create droughts.

NASA’s James Hansen is just wrong: Proof that there is no increased drought in the USA tied to temperature

33 posted on 08/12/2012 10:13:33 PM PDT by justa-hairyape
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To: Roses0508
And written in crayon, preferably the color red.
34 posted on 08/12/2012 10:22:31 PM PDT by Conservative4Ever (The Obamas = rude, crude and socially unacceptable)
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To: redpoll

I want the kind of weather they sing about in Camelot. :-)


35 posted on 08/12/2012 10:29:05 PM PDT by Conservative4Ever (The Obamas = rude, crude and socially unacceptable)
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To: Sub-Driver

Those who buy into the cult of alGore have the gravitas to believe humans can significantly affect Mother Nature. I laugh at their gravitas. The planet was here before the human race and will be here after us.

Man can not control what he did not create. Period.


36 posted on 08/12/2012 10:30:32 PM PDT by NYRepublican72
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To: Sub-Driver
Widespread annual droughts, once a rare calamity....


37 posted on 08/12/2012 10:34:52 PM PDT by Bratch
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