Skip to comments.Iran can build an N-bomb by Oct. 1. Cairo coup hampers Israeli action
Posted on 08/13/2012 2:28:03 PM PDT by LucianOfSamasota
At its present rate of enrichment, Iran will have 250 kilograms of 20-percent grade uranium, exactly enough to build its first nuclear bomb, in roughly six weeks, and two-to- four bombs by early 2013, debkafiles military and intelligence sources report. Hence the leak by an unnamed Israeli security source Sunday, Aug. 12, disclosing Irans progress in developing the detonator and fuses for a nuclear warhead which can be fitted onto Shehab-3 ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel. Since 20 percent refined uranium is a short jump to weapons grade fuel, Iran will have the capability and materials for building an operational nuclear bomb by approximately October 1. This knowledge is not news to US President Barack Obama, Saudi King Abdullah, Syrian ruler Bashar Assad, or Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu - and certainly not to Irans Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Netanyahus comment at the opening of the weekly cabinet meeting Sunday: All threats against the home front are dwarfed by one Iran must not be allowed to have nuclear arms! was prompted by that deadline. Ex-Prime Minister Ehud Olmert did not have that information when he assured Tel Aviv students Sunday, Irans nuclear program has not reached the threshold necessitating Israeli action now or in the near future. He further claimed that Israels defense leaders dont subscribe to the view that action now is unavoidable. Olmert, who stepped down under a cloud of suspected corruption in 2009, has not since then had access to regular intelligence briefings on Iran. So either he spoke out of ignorance or willfully joined an opposition chorus of voices speaking out against Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak.
(Excerpt) Read more at debka.com ...
Leading an opposition campaign to bring down the incumbent government is legitimate. Discrediting belated Israeli action to pre-empt a nuclear Iran as fodder for that campaign is not. If what Olmert and Barack (the same defense minister as today) did in 2007 was necessary then, action now for delaying Irans imminent breakout to a bomb is many times more necessary and far more urgent. However Netanyahu and Barak have put themselves in a straitjacket by two lapses:
1. By foot-dragging on their decision for two years, they have led their opponents at home and in Washington and Khameneis office too to believe that, by turning on the heat, they can hold Israel back from military action against Irans nuclear program until it is too late. The time has been used not just for Iranian nuclear progress, but to enlist ex-politicians and retired generals at home and add them to the voices, especially in the White House, which believe Israel can learn to live with a nuclear-armed Iran. 2. Netanyahu and Barak have behaved as though a decision on Iran is in their exclusive province, insulated from the turmoil and change swirling through Israels Arab neighbors in the past two years. But the Middle East has a way of catching up with and rushing past slow-moving politicians: Sunday, at 10:00 a.m. Netanyahu warned his ministers that no threat was worse than a nuclear Iran. At 17:55 p.m., Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood President Mohamed Morsi dropped a bombshell in Cairo. In one fell swoop, he smashed the Egyptian military clique ruling the country for decades, sacked the Supreme Military Council running Egypt since March 2011 and cut the generals off from their business empire by appropriating the defense ministry and military industry. That fateful eight hours-less-five-minutes have forced Israels leaders to take a second look at their plans for Iran. Morsis lightning decisions were the finishing touches that proved the Islamist Bedouin terror attacks in Sinai of Aug. 5 fitted neatly into a secret master plan hatched by Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood to seize full control of rule in Cairo a plan debkafile first revealed exclusively last Friday, Aug. 10. Netanyahu now faces one of the hardest dilemmas of his political career - whether to go forward with the Iran operation, which calls for mustering all Israels military and defense capabilities especially for the repercussions, after being suddenly confronted with unforeseen security challenges on its southwestern border, for thirty years a frontier of peace.
The exceptional talents of Netanyahu and Barak to put off strategic decisions until they are overtaken by events has landed Israel in an especially perilous plight, surrounded now by a soon-to-be nuclear-armed Iran from the east; threatened Syrian chemical warfare from the north and the Muslim Brotherhood takeover of Egypt to its south.
N-Bombs don’t bother me.
It’s those A-Bombs and H-Bombs that scare me............
I presume that by "20 percent refined" they mean "20% U-235, 80% U-238".
It would seem to me that the laws of physics mean that as the enrichment ratio gets higher, increasing it becomes progressively more difficult, not "a short jump".
Anyone else out there know for certain?
The fact that it's "Debka" generally means "start with a large block of salt".
I don't know who was the traitor responsible for that report, but (s)he should be in jail for life.
The Oct 1 date is interesting. I believe that Obama garnered the endorsement of the current Israeli government by giving them a green light for an October strike. The chaos over the middle east could be used to change the focus of the elections and the green light could be a way to bring back the Jewish vote.
Wondering if this’ll become a “September Surprise”, rather than waiting for October? I’ve heard that DEBKA isn’t too reliable; kind of like Dick Morris’ throw-’em-at-the-wall-and-see-what-sticks predictions.
Considering that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, addressing
Iranians a couple of days ago, warned them to prepare
for war in a matter of weeks, I’d say the situation
is as serious as I’ve seen it so far.
Probably the same person who made the latest NIE 100 percent classified in order that Romney not be able to make a campaign issue of it.
No more or less reliable than any other news source. Dealing in the extremely murky world of Middle East politics, what is true one minute may not be true in the next minute, but true again five minutes later.
Debkafile does far better job reporting on what is really happening there then our MSN.
Whether it is Sept or Oct, Iran will use the first nuke which becomes operational, as soon as it can be launched; they have the 'little guy in the well' to bring back, and only the blood of millions will entice him out - so the ruling mullas believe.
The first one is for Tel Aviv, the ones that come on line in early 2013 are for Rome and NYC.
The number of Iranian dead in any response is not a factor for the mullas, since the Iranian dead in such a conflict have been declared martyrs already and will go straight to Paradise. To the mullas, the more blood the better.
From what I’ve read over the past couple of years the jump from 20% to weapons grade is not a big jump. As you get the impurities out, it goes faster.
Again, I could be wrong.
I don’t know either.
As I understand it, it’s like having a container with a million ping-pong balls - 997,000 red and 3000 green (based on the relative proportions of U-238 and U-235).
Then, you start pulling balls out of the container. If you get a green ball, you put it back; if you get a red ball, you throw it away.
Initially, nearly every ball you pull will be thrown away. Eventually, though, a significant proportion will be green, and you put it back.
Clearly, as the number of red balls decreases, you’ll be disposing of them at a lower rate. Why would uranium atoms be any different?
You assume the balls are the same size. I will bet that is where the difference lies. As the heavier atoms are flung to the outside, it is easier to collect them. Just a thought.
lots of dead mullahs might get the attention of those left
You are correct. In a gas centrifuge, the heavier UF6 gas molecules with U238 will tend to concentrate at the inner wall of the spinning cylinder. The UF6 molecules with U235 will tend to be concentrated closest to the axis of the cylinder.
You actually meant “outer” wall for the U-238 flavor of UF6, right?
I don’t think that’s it.
I suspect what they may mean is that as the -235 fraction goes from a fraction of a percent to tens of percents, it takes far fewer centrifuges to process the UF6 containing the same amount of U-235.
Again, pure conjecture on my part.