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Obama 2016? (What if 2012 Isnít Obamaís Last Campaign?)
National Review ^ | 8-15-2012 | Jim Geraghty _ Commentary

Posted on 08/15/2012 12:02:43 PM PDT by smoothsailing

August 15, 2012

Obama 2016?

Jim Geraghty

The Wednesday edition of the Morning Jolt features the Obama campaign’s most indefensible, false, incendiary attack since their last one, a reason to doubt foreign policy columnists with unnamed sources, and then this thought about our political future…

What if 2012 Isn’t Obama’s Last Campaign?

Picture it: It’s December, and folks like you and I are celebrating the recent presidential campaign victory of Mitt Romney. It wasn’t a landslide; something on par with the Electoral College map of Bush vs. Kerry, and Romney winning the popular vote by two or three percentage points.

In that scenario, do you envision President Obama accepting defeat gracefully? Do you picture him congratulating President Romney on his victory, and pledging to do everything possible to ensure a smooth transition? Do you think the president will be ready to move on to post-White House life, focusing upon memoir-writing, building his presidential library, some charitable and foundation work, and plenty of golf?

Or do you think President Obama, and David Axelrod, and Valerie Jarrett and all of the true believers will find some reason to believe the result is illegitimate? Some combination of SuperPAC spending and voter ID laws that they believe nullifies the results? I don’t mean a constitutional crisis where Obama refuses to recognize the results, I mean just a narrative of “Romney cheated” that will reassure liberals that their views really are popular, and a return to the natural order of their eternal string of victories is one election-law change away. (In liberals’ view of the world, they never suffer a legitimate defeat.)

Seeing that rotund, irate Iowa woman storm the stage at the state fair to berate Paul Ryan, I can’t help but suspect we’ll see a lot of lefty rage in response to a Romney victory. Romney, Ryan, Speaker Boehner and Majority/Minority Leader McConnell will have a full plate, and they may see Wisconsin-style protests on a national scale. Occupy Wall Street may not be completely deflated; a “stolen election” makes a heck of a rallying cry.

If there’s anything we’ve seen, it’s that President Obama loves to campaign – to hold fundraisers, to attend rallies, to attend ‘town meetings’ where the questioners mostly ask why people aren’t smart enough to see how great he is. In January 2013, former President Obama would find himself with a lot of time to do all that.

I’m not the first to ponder this question, or to come to the same suspicions. Mickey Kaus saw a signal in Obama’s gay marriage shift:

Thinking two steps ahead? If Barack Obama loses the 2012 election, do you think he’s going to quit elective politics, serve on a series of corporate and foundation boards, write a best-selling children’s book on being a Dad and a Lugaresque memoir describing how Fox News and Peter Orszag betrayed him? I don’t. I think he’s going to run again, Grover Cleveland style. That casts possible additional (distant) light on today’s endorsement of same-sex marriage: It may or may not help Obama in 2012. But it would much more reliably likely help him in 2016, when public opinion can be expected to have shifted further in favor of this social innovation. It would certainly help him in the Democratic primaries. ….

Aaron Goldstein was even more explicit: “Let’s say Obama loses in November. He has a ready made excuse for his defeat. Obama can say that the forces of darkness (i.e. opponents of gay marriage) are to blame for his defeat while patting himself on the back for his “courage” in supporting same sex marriage. It also helps to position him for a comeback in 2016 or 2020. Make no mistake. If Obama loses this fall it won’t be the last we see of him. By that time with a greater presence of voters born after 1980 chances are there will be more voters in favor of gay marriage which would give Obama an opportunity to claim he was ahead of the curve.”

Back in July, James Pethokoukis came up with five reasons the president might try to come back again:

1. Obama, always trim and fit, would be only 55 on Election Day 2016.

2. Obama would likely still have a deep reservoir of support among key Democratic interest groups including (most importantly) African Americans, gays, young voters, and the educated elite.

3. Many Democrats might be inclined to give an historic president a second chance, reasoning he was dealt an impossibly bad economic hand by George W. Bush. “Bush got two terms, and Obama just one? Please.”

4. While there could potentially be some big name rivals in 2016, including Hillary Clinton and Andrew Cuomo, none seem as formidable as Ronald Reagan was to Ford in 1980.

5. The economy the next four years could be pretty rough thanks to high levels of U.S. debt and a possible eurozone implosion. The Obama years might be subject to some positive revisionist history by a friendly media. And as one gloomy economic analyst told me recently,”Whichever party wins the White House in 2012 won’t win again for 20 years.”

There are a lot of people who are emotionally invested in the notion of Barack Obama as a transformative, redeeming, era-defining national leader.

In fact, thinking back to my Jolt of a few days ago, about how political leaders seek to have heroic narratives… perhaps Obama would be even more pleased with himself with “wilderness years.” In fact, if Obama really is a messiah-like figure in the minds of his biggest fans… doesn’t he need to return and demonstrate a political resurrection?



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1 posted on 08/15/2012 12:02:49 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: smoothsailing

Even if the same-sex marriage endorsement gets him points in 2016, the American people will be living under the bad parts of Obamacare by then. And his name is fully attached to that and the Dems will not be able to get people to believe Romney ‘did it’ to them. He will own it - and it will be his legacy.


2 posted on 08/15/2012 12:06:48 PM PDT by 5thGenTexan
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To: smoothsailing

I think so much of Obama’s rise to the White House rode on the novelty of him being black. Given this, I don’t think he stands a chance of ever being re-elected if he loses this one.


3 posted on 08/15/2012 12:07:13 PM PDT by chaos_5
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To: smoothsailing

I don’t think so. Most Democrats seem to begrudgingly support him this time around ... but I don’t get the feeling they’re all that enthusiastic about it.

If he loses, he won’t be nominated come 2016. If no one else, Hillary will trounce him.

SnakeDoc


4 posted on 08/15/2012 12:07:36 PM PDT by SnakeDoctor ("I've shot people I like more for less." -- Raylan Givens, Justified)
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To: smoothsailing

Him and Jimmah can go pound nails together....preferably into each other..........


5 posted on 08/15/2012 12:08:34 PM PDT by Red Badger (Anyone who thinks wisdom comes with age is either too young or too stupid to know the difference....)
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To: 5thGenTexan

That’s laughable. IF he ends up winning, than Americans are more stupid than ever and/or he’s really got a handle on fraud. And that is the ONLY way I see him winning now, is by fraud, theft and complete thuggery.

Somehow I think a good majority of Americans have woken up and see what he is, if not the Democrats, and what they are leading us to.

So if he loses now, the idea of him running again in 2016 is a joke.


6 posted on 08/15/2012 12:10:40 PM PDT by Lucky9teen (Peace is that brief glorious moment in history when everybody stands around reloading.~Thomas Jeffer)
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To: Red Badger

Oh, I thought this was going to be about term limits are only for White presidents.


7 posted on 08/15/2012 12:10:46 PM PDT by massgopguy (I owe everything to George Bailey)
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To: smoothsailing

I don’t think the Dems would fight to give Obama a third term as it means that Republicans would also get a chance at a third term.

But, he wouldn’t be the first president that hoofed it back to the Senate after leaving the presidency.


8 posted on 08/15/2012 12:10:51 PM PDT by Jonty30 (What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults.)
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To: smoothsailing
Obama isn't wrapped too tight now. Another 4 continuous years of campaigning will unhinge him.
9 posted on 08/15/2012 12:11:21 PM PDT by AU72
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To: smoothsailing
Mitt good - gets rid of Obama in 2012. America doesn't disappear or become the U.N. or a third-world country.

Mitt bad - he's actually elected and runs things for four years without much, if any, vision. Another Bush-type "In-Box" POTUS. What happens in 2016? Even if he's re-elected in 2016, unless something changes regarding Mitt Romney, 2020 would also be a concern.

10 posted on 08/15/2012 12:13:08 PM PDT by PapaNew
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To: Red Badger

LOL!


11 posted on 08/15/2012 12:16:11 PM PDT by Las Vegas Ron (Medicine is the keystone in the arch of socialism)
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To: smoothsailing

You’ll see Obama in 2016 if he loses in 2012 and Romney has not put America back to work.


12 posted on 08/15/2012 12:17:13 PM PDT by ex-snook (without forgiveness there is no Christianity)
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To: smoothsailing
Being Obama is the evil, conniving, calculating turkey that he is I believe it probable he'll try but pulling it off is another thing.

I truly believe he'll be another ex pres like Carter that's not about to go away.

13 posted on 08/15/2012 12:17:51 PM PDT by jazusamo ("Intellect is not wisdom" -- Thomas Sowell)
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To: 5thGenTexan

If the republicans grew, borrowed, stole, rented or cloned a “set”, Obama would be forced to run his 2016 campaign from a prison cell.

Yes, I am a dreamer and have a wild imagination.


14 posted on 08/15/2012 12:18:57 PM PDT by Gator113 (***YOU GAVE it to Obama. I would have voted for NEWT.~Just livin' life, my way~)
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To: Las Vegas Ron

Obama will qualify as Secy General of the UN. After all..he is from a corrupt third world country and has communist background.


15 posted on 08/15/2012 12:19:20 PM PDT by Oldexpat
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To: smoothsailing

This is not the first time I have considered the possibility that Obama may pull a Grover Cleveland on us.


16 posted on 08/15/2012 12:19:34 PM PDT by GSWarrior (Businessmen are more trustworthy than professors, politicians and preachers.)
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To: smoothsailing

I have a different opinion from the author. I don’t think he’d accept defeat should Romney win the election, and I don’t think either of the other branches of government would do anything about it. Hell, I don’t think the Secret Service, Marshals, a Sheriff, or the FBI would do anything about it either.

The only “constitution” Obama believes in has red covers both front and back.


17 posted on 08/15/2012 12:22:00 PM PDT by wastedyears ("God? I didn't know he was signed onto the system.")
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To: smoothsailing

I don’t know if dear leader will win (granted, three months ago, I didn’t think the Supreme court would rule such a blatantly anti-individual rights bill constitutional), but I think a very large outbreak of violence, plus a run through the Supreme court is guaranteed. I would be extremely surprised if dear leader didn’t at least make a symbolic gesture of challenging his defeat on racial grounds.


18 posted on 08/15/2012 12:24:55 PM PDT by RWB Patriot ("My ability is a value that must be purchased and I don't recognize anyone's need as a claim on me.")
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To: smoothsailing

This is one of those things I will happily worry about AFTER Romney drives the Marxist Homo-in-Chief from the White Hut.


19 posted on 08/15/2012 12:25:13 PM PDT by GnL
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To: GSWarrior

When Obama is removed from office he will go into a very deep depression that will lead to hard drug use. In a few years I wouldn’t be at all suprized to hear he was found in an alley dead of an overdose.


20 posted on 08/15/2012 12:27:24 PM PDT by WellyP (question!)
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To: 5thGenTexan

If, God willing, Obama is defeated and the pubbies take over, the ball is in our court. Hopefully the pubbies have the spine and guts to initiate investigation into Bam,Holder, Jarret,etc and all the corruption that this adminstration has been involved in.


21 posted on 08/15/2012 12:29:07 PM PDT by kenmcg (t)
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To: SnakeDoctor
"If he loses, he won’t be nominated come 2016."

I agree. It looks like this:

Scenario #1
2012 Romney vs Obama: Our socialist wins
2016 Romney vs Their New Socialist: Either way a socialist wins.
2020 Chance for the GOP to put up a non-socialist.

Scenario #2
2012 Romney vs Obama: Their socialist wins
2016 Chance for the GOP to put up a non-socialist.
(If we aren't being prevented from voting by Obama's heavily armed National Weather Service.)

22 posted on 08/15/2012 12:31:16 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: GSWarrior
This is not the first time I have considered the possibility that Obama may pull a Grover Cleveland on us.

Picture this: The Chairman of the Inaugural Celebration in January 2013 is none other than Senator Chuck U. Schumer (it's true). Minutes after President Romney is sworn in, Chuck U. runs to the cameras to gleefully announce "It's Romney's economy now!"

All the economic time bombs that have been carefully set in place over the last 3 years go off like little IEDs across the fruited plain. The DemocRATs, with the help of their friends in the media, pound Romney and the Republicans. The years from 2013 to 2016 are grim indeed for the GOP.

The GOP takes a bath in the 2014 mid-term elections. Pelosi once again becomes Speaker, and Reid Senate Majority Leader. The DemocRAT message leading up to the 2016 Presidential election? "WE TOLD YOU SO!"

Obama wins his second term.

23 posted on 08/15/2012 12:31:54 PM PDT by COBOL2Java (FUMR)
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To: smoothsailing

Maybe Divine judgement will be required.


24 posted on 08/15/2012 12:33:30 PM PDT by LucianOfSamasota (Tanstaafl - its not just for breakfast anymore...)
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To: jazusamo
I truly believe he'll be another ex pres like Carter that's not about to go away.

Carter,Clinton,Obama...card carrying members of the

League of Public Disgrace


25 posted on 08/15/2012 12:35:25 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: chaos_5
Obama has destroyed any chance of another black democrat in the WH for at least the next 2 generations.

We still may see a black Republican Conservative if only because the blacks would want a chance to prove one of their own can get it right.

Yes, I really believe if a black Rep was on the ticket for president he would get a majority of the black vote.

26 posted on 08/15/2012 12:36:26 PM PDT by beenaround
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To: smoothsailing
While the Leftist immigration policy, coupled with Welfare subsidy for demographic change, may indeed increase the Leftist portion of the voting age population by 2016, the other imagined gains for the Obamanist position will only work to his advantage, if Conservatives continue to refuse to discuss the issues from a reasoned perspective.

For the example most relevant to the article: Same sex "marriage" is clearly an oxymoron. It gains support only when Conservatives simply denounce it, without analyzing the underlying dynamic concepts. When we rest on simply reciting what the Bible says, a generation being conditioned to reject religious arguments continues to drift to the Leftist assault on traditional values.

The alternative is to discuss what is involved--the traditional function of marriage--the multi-generational concept of the family, etc.. Properly handled, what I describe as the correct approach will not only stem the changing attitude in the particular regard; it will actually cause many to reconsider the Left's attack on traditional values; will actually lead many to favorably reconsider the values of the Faith they have abandoned.

We can win the ideological war; but we have to fight more intelligently.

William Flax

27 posted on 08/15/2012 12:36:52 PM PDT by Ohioan
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To: wastedyears
I read your exact position in 2000 when so many here opined Clinton simply wouldn't leave the WH. I don't think I have ever seen so many conspiracy believers on a forum which purports to have a preponderance of reasonable intelligent thinking people as members. It's discouraging and a bit unsettling.
28 posted on 08/15/2012 12:41:34 PM PDT by beenaround
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To: wastedyears
I read your exact position in 2000 when so many here opined Clinton simply wouldn't leave the WH. I don't think I have ever seen so many conspiracy believers on a forum which purports to have a preponderance of reasonable intelligent thinking people as members. It's discouraging and a bit unsettling.
29 posted on 08/15/2012 12:41:34 PM PDT by beenaround
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To: wastedyears

No way they will back him if he loses, I just don’t think there is that much true love of him from the people who have boots on the ground.

Yeah they might like him, but will they risk their jobs, retirement, or family by supporting him in that fashion?

I doubt it. and

Even if it came down to that would the Pentagon or the armed forces use threat of force on civilians to prop him up? I think we would far more likely see a task force of Marines gently escorting him and his wife OUT of the White House as opposed to keeping him IN there myself. Remember, their oath is to the Constitution, not the CIC.


30 posted on 08/15/2012 12:44:36 PM PDT by Abathar (Proudly posting without reading the article carefully since 2004)
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To: smoothsailing
"Thinking two steps ahead? If Barack Obama loses the 2012 election, do you think he’s going to quit elective politics, serve on a series of corporate and foundation boards, write a best-selling children’s book on being a Dad and a Lugaresque memoir describing how Fox News and Peter Orszag betrayed him?"

Yes, that's EXACTLY what is going to happen. The $20 million dollar book advance, his OWN foundation (c'mon Jim, think), and quit elective politics forever.

He doesn't like it, sharing power with two other branches of goobermint.

And Moochelle really doesn't like it, because it cuts into her Aunt Esther time...


31 posted on 08/15/2012 12:53:36 PM PDT by StAnDeliver ("So, a Mormon and a Catholic walk onto an aircraft carrier...")
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To: Gator113; kenmcg
Ain't gonna happen. It violates the unspoken political golden rule "never do unto them lest they do it unto you later".

The whole corrupt lot protect each other, since all are dirty.

32 posted on 08/15/2012 12:58:15 PM PDT by 5thGenTexan
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To: beenaround
Yes, I really believe if a black Rep was on the ticket for president he would get a majority of the black vote.

But sadly the Dems and the GOP-e conspired to make sure we didn't get to run that experiment.

33 posted on 08/15/2012 1:03:29 PM PDT by 5thGenTexan
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To: smoothsailing

Obama’s presidency has been a bumbling, fumbling disaster and all the Democrat insiders know it. If he tried to run again they’d cut him off at the knees by the New Hampshire primary.


34 posted on 08/15/2012 1:14:09 PM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: SnakeDoctor

“If he loses, he won’t be nominated come 2016. If no one else, Hillary will trounce him.”

Hillary? I am just hoping that the next four years will see her “meet her Maker.”


35 posted on 08/15/2012 1:16:27 PM PDT by vette6387
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To: StAnDeliver
Moochelle really doesn't like it, because it cuts into her Aunt Esther time...

LOL!

.

36 posted on 08/15/2012 1:17:49 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: GSWarrior
Politics have changed since Cleveland's day. Nowadays a President is limited to only two terms, so a President who lost the White House and then won it back would be a lame duck, throughout his term.

Parties and politicians don't like that. It means their expected patronage time is cut in half. It means they have to start the presidential search process all over again from zero just four years down the road.

If the party is certain to lose, it's possible that they'd put up an ex-President as a sacrificial lamb, but if there's any chance of winning other politicians aren't going to defer to Obama, anymore than they deferred to Adlai Stevenson in 1960 or to Hubert Humphrey in 1972 or 1976.

It's not impossible for an ex-President to pull a Grover Cleveland, but it's harder than it was a century ago. Obama would look like Adlai Stevenson or Eugene McCarthy or Gary Hart, trying in vain to recapture his moment long after it had passed.

37 posted on 08/15/2012 1:17:49 PM PDT by x
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To: vette6387

Doesn’t matter much. There’s always another waiting in the wings.

SnakeDoc


38 posted on 08/15/2012 1:18:22 PM PDT by SnakeDoctor ("I've shot people I like more for less." -- Raylan Givens, Justified)
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To: vette6387
Hillary? I am just hoping that the next four years will see her “meet her Maker.”

I believe she has on many an occassion...


39 posted on 08/15/2012 1:19:05 PM PDT by COBOL2Java (FUMR)
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To: Oldexpat

Rim shot....we have a winner!


40 posted on 08/15/2012 1:20:31 PM PDT by Churchillspirit (9/11/2001. NEVER FORGET.)
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To: 5thGenTexan

We really don’t need the current income tax replaced by another income tax.


41 posted on 08/15/2012 1:24:00 PM PDT by wastedyears ("God? I didn't know he was signed onto the system.")
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To: beenaround

“I don’t think I have ever seen so many conspiracy believers on a forum which purports to have a preponderance of reasonable intelligent thinking people as members. It’s discouraging and a bit unsettling. “

You are oh so right, and they are the same bunch who want to throw California under the bus! We wouldn’t have a country to save today if these were the kind of people on whom Washington had to rely in the War for Independence. And they don’t see that they are indeed a mirror image of those whom they profess to detest on the Left! But then again, we are still free enough that they can babble on about the Black helicopters and all that!


42 posted on 08/15/2012 1:24:09 PM PDT by vette6387
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To: 5thGenTexan
1. Obama, always trim and fit, would be only 55 on Election Day 2016.

Well, it's just a matter of time before all the bong resin floating around his bloodstream does some damage. With any luck, it will incapacitate him from any future political aspirations, with the possibility of Kenyan Dog Catcher not being ruled out.

43 posted on 08/15/2012 1:24:49 PM PDT by Lou L (Health "insurance" is NOT the same as health "care")
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To: SnakeDoctor

I do believe the Dems have an incredibly weak bench right now.
All their “stars” except Baraq are ancient. Hillary, Biden, Bwarney Fwank, Pelosi, Reid, Waxman, Schumer, etc.

The younger ones they do have are toxic like Debbie Washerwoman Schmultz, John Edwards, and Tony Weiner.


44 posted on 08/15/2012 1:27:50 PM PDT by nascarnation
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To: 5thGenTexan

I know... it was just a dream.


45 posted on 08/15/2012 1:34:16 PM PDT by Gator113 (***YOU GAVE it to Obama. I would have voted for NEWT.~Just livin' life, my way~)
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To: Abathar
No way they will back him if he loses, I just don’t think there is that much true love of him from the people who have boots on the ground.

One thing that is notable about the Obama administration is that he, himself, has done virtually nothing for his party. He raises funds...but only for himself.

He couldn't be bothered to campaign for the Democrats in Congress in 2010. In the few cases where he made an effort, they were ineffective.

If Obama loses in a squeaker in 2012 and wishes to run again in 2016, he will have to ingratiate himself with his party -- as Nixon did among Republicans in 1965-68. Criss-crossing the country, raising funds for the party and not himself, selflessly helping Congressional candidates and State committees, etc.

And Obama is simply too lazy and self-absorbed to do that.

He loses in 2012...and he's gone. Except in the media's wet dreams...and his own mind.

46 posted on 08/15/2012 1:37:09 PM PDT by okie01 (The Mainstream Media: IGNORANCE ON PARADE)
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To: 5thGenTexan
Obama 2016? (What if 2012 Isn’t Obama’s Last Campaign?)

Have you wondered why the military is preparing for Civil Insurrection in 2016? It's not a coincidence. 0bama is planning on stealing this election, and in 2016 he has no intention of leaving office. He regards himself as dictator for life and he is getting the military ready to keep him in power.

47 posted on 08/15/2012 1:38:35 PM PDT by The Sons of Liberty ("Get that evil, foreign, muslim, usurping bastard out of MY White House!" FUBO GTFO!)
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To: Lou L
Obama, always trim and fit, would be only 55 on Election Day 2016.

Jimmah Carter was only 56 when he left office, and in pretty good health by all accounts.


48 posted on 08/15/2012 1:39:52 PM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: okie01

When he leaves office he has his eye on that cushy gig Jesse Jackson has had for four decades.


49 posted on 08/15/2012 1:42:10 PM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: smoothsailing

If Obama loses in a close race, and the Dems hold the Senate, I think you’ll see him as the party’s nominee in 2016. If he loses big, and the Republicans increase their majority in the House and take the Senate, then things will get interesting for the Dems in 2016. Obama’s enormous ego will cause him to seek the nomination, but the party will blame him for the 2012 disaster and seek another candidate. Hillary and Biden will be too old. (Hillary looks horrible now - just imagine what she’ll look like in 4 years!) As someone else pointed out, the Democrats have a weak bench. They’ll have to manufacture a new “rising star” in the party.


50 posted on 08/15/2012 1:42:21 PM PDT by GreenHornet
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