Look back at the VA & NJ governor races, then Scott Brown, then 2010 midterms. The political/socio-economic environment that produced these results has not changed much. Certainly not to the demholes advantage. Then look at WI. First the judicial election, then the various recalls. The left pulled out all the stops union thugs, MSM propaganda .etc, and they still came up short. Since, factor in de-facto amnesty, gay marriage (see Chick-Fil-A), continuing lousy ecomic news (UNEXPECTEDLY!), etc, etc, etc. So the political/socio-economic environment has really gotten worse for the demholes. Now Romney seems to be stepping up his game. And now we have Paul Ryan and a revved up base. Any rational observer knows Obama is in deep poop. All he has to go on is character assassination and vote fraud. The former aided and abetted by his MSMwhores and the latter ignored by his MSMwhores. (Sadly, this may work for him, never underestimate the moron-vote.)
But even morons have their limit. That said, for my very unscientific election predictor - look at the 2010 numbers, then take the 2008 numbers state-by-state. Factor in a 10-point swing in all the solid/lean-McLoser (2008) states, then factor in a 5-point swing in all the 2008 toss-up states.
Obama is in trouble.
From your mouth to . . . . However, 2010 and the Wisconsin recall are not the 2012 Presidential election. Some number of folks in Wisconsin voted against the recall of Walker just because they don’t like recalls, and a fired up group (in this case the Tea Party) always has a more significant effect during a midterm election just because fewer people vote in midterms. Don’t get complacent. We need to work as we would if we were trailing (which I do not believe we are).