Skip to comments.GALLUP : ROMNEY 47% OBAMA 45%
Posted on 08/17/2012 4:14:28 PM PDT by RobinMasters
These are the results when registered voters are asked: "Suppose the presidential election were held today. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and Mitt Romney were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you vote for Barack Obama, the Democrat or Mitt Romney, the Republican?" Those who are undecided are further asked if they lean more toward Obama or Romney and their leanings are incorporated into the results. Each seven-day rolling average is based on telephone interviews with approximately 3,050 registered voters; Margin of error is ±2 percentage points. Results from April 15 through May 6 are based on five-day rolling averages with approximately 2,200 registered voters each; Margin of error is ±3 percentage points. Editorial note: Due to a technical issue, the May 1-5 data point is not displayed at this time.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
Anyone have a recent history of Gallup and other polls for these two upstarts? Wonder if Romney has shown ahead in any of the previous polls.
Which, ironically, was, only five months - to the day - after the TV show That's Incredible went on the air.
How did Obama win the first time?
The last time polls started looking like this after a VP pick, Soros and company crashed the derivatives market and foolish McCain tried to be viewed as riding in to save the day, beginning a downward spiral. The Dims are nothing if not repetative. I wonder what’s coming up next.
Note: REGISTERED VOTERS.
The more accurate LIKELY VOTERS will, according to our ace enemy and almost ace analyst Nate Silver of the NYT, add 2 points to the R column. That would make it Romney 49, Obama 45. I like that.
Plus you can give Romney another point for the UNDECIDED voters who will mostly break for the challenger. We are looking good right now.
Not sure Soros will have a whole lot cooking this time around. Believe it or not, the old bastard is engaged to be married.
Obama's problem is that another market crash, something he probably has the wherewithal to orchestrate, would work against him. Likewise a Wag the Dog war would not set well with his liberal base. And he seems stuck with Joe.
There will be an October Surprise but I'm thinking it will be more of an October Whimper.
Northern VA poll that showed Zero up 4 in a region he won by 23 in 08;
Seniors poll of AARP members in FL showing Romney with a lead (!)
Yesterday's "swing state" poll showing Romney up in OH, FL, VA, and only trailing in CO.
Rasmussen WI, Romney up
Rasmussen FL, Romney up
Rasmussen OH, Romney tied
Rasmussen 9/10 days, Romney up (Today Ras has Zero up one, probably a statistical variation)
And, on top of all this, the Franklin Marshall poll showed ZEro up 6 in PA . . . after oversampling Dems by 13%!!
Now we have a two point Gallup lead in REGISTERED voters, which means in all likelihood it means a four point lead, as you say.
Throw in Senate trends (Thompson up big in WI, Mandel tied in OH---the only bad news is Mack down seven in FL) and this is, yes, shaping up as a blowout.
Biden carried him.
Biden carried him.
One thing is certain, there will be something and it will be dirty.
“Soros....what’s coming next”. He’s dumping stocks for Gold. I’d guess he’s betting the Euro goes “Poof” and the S*it finally hits the fan.
THAT scares me. If Ohio is even close, the Dems will recount and recount and recount until they win. It is amazing how they always manage to "find" lots of uncounted Dem votes after the election is over.
And Ohio could very well decide this election.
This is thanks to VPs in the race: Biden and Ryan.
these arwe registered voters and NOT likely voters.... November is ALL about turn out
Does this poll include any of the good folks being registered under Obama’s Illegal Alien Dreamers Act in the past few days?
This is nice, but there is only one poll that counts and that is the one on November 6.
It gave them 10 million extra votes ~ another way to look at it is that when the GOP-e ran McCain we instantly lost 5 million Conservative voters. That way the Democrats needed only to come up with 5 million new Democrat voters ~ a much easier task than getting the whole 10 million de novo.
They continue to have a great deal of resilience with a buffer of 5 to 10 million voters.
In contrast we have prepared for this contest by running yet another leftwing candidate.
Somebody at the top of the Republican party has several screws loose.
ACTUALLY, AT THIS POINT rEAGAN WAS 9 POINTS DOWN!
Well, we sure can see the effect FR haters of Romney are having. Who would have thought they couldn’t topple the Ticket? All three hundred of them. Fire away.
Reagan was about 20 points behind prior to the convention.
I think Reagan was nine points down three to four weeks before the election, At this point, he was 20 behind. After the convention he started up and the debates shot him upwards till the weekend before the election when he went ahead of Carter.
Also note the polling ended May 6th.
Lick your chops on this:
Carter up 39%— Reagan 32%. This is like the 1990 congressional elections where no pollster saw how much people hared Hillarycare. This poll does not factor in how much democrats and indies hate Obamacare.
Hmmm, I did NOT know that (well, I knew about Kasich). And most of my family lives in Ohio. Thanks!
“Somebody at the top of the Republican party has several screws loose.”
I must have missed the memo. Look, Romney won the most votes and the most primaries. I supported Newt, but this guy won the process fair and square. No GOP-e clown in New York or Boston anointed this guy. He won. I plan on supporting him against the communist, anti-Christian bigot currently in power.
And this is the convention speech that turned it all around back in 1980. I remember watching that speech on the couch at home as a 17-year-old and when it was over, my father, who was a lifelong Democrat, turned to me and said "That's the next president of the United States."
If you haven't seen this speech or it's been a long time since you saw it, I recommend you take 45 minutes out of your time this weekend and view the video at my link above in its entirety. It starts off a little slow, but once you get past Reagan's sop to the ERA crowd (a big social issue at that time), it turns into a rousing barnburner of a speech and I believe this one speech sealed the deal for Reagan that election year.
If Mitt Romney can give a speech half this good later this month at the RNC, Democrat heads will explode all across this country.
Too bad for Gallup and the rest of the Leftist propaganda outlets, likely voters, not register voters is the real professional polling standard. Too bad for Gallup about 40-45% of these “registered voters” do not vote.
Romney got a bump because he is nominating Ryan as his VP. You can’t dispute that Ryan is a conservative, and so some of the conservatives have jumped on board Romney’s bus. What’s surprising to me is that the bump is only 1 or 2%. Hard to believe that conservatives can give Romney only a 1 or 2% bump. Some of them are still holding back, and frankly, they are fools if they don’t take Romney’s side in the epic battle between Romney/Ryan and Obama/Biden.
Didn’t Obama just give a bunch of illegals a quick pathway to citizenship this week. The lines were around the block in most cities. That is going to be a problem for Republicans.
Now, do you think that will happen in 12? No way.
This is a Socon issue ~ Romney doesn't care.
Absolutely meaningless poll unless you as “who ya’ gonna’ vote fer” ~ plenty of worthless politicians win office every year.
The poll DOES ask who they are going to vote for, hence Romney 51, Obama 46...
He knows what was done by the MIttbots. A normal man would have been ashamed. He still sends out his junior acolytes to attack people who remind them of this.
I expect this thread to continue on into the wee hours of Sunday morning as the Temple Work guys come on board to focus on my comments yet one more time.
Do you realize how much your responses serve to up my count with Google.com so that threads with my stuff on them become dominant in the search patterns.
CORRECTION: The poll DOES ask who they are going to vote for, hence Romney 51, Obama 45...
BTW, all the old folks know the Democrats are trying to get their stuff. That's why we keep practicing the line: "Hey, you kids, get off my lawn"
August 10-16, 2012. Note: No Ryan bump per Gallup. Also 47 to 45 the previous 3 weeks.
“Soros and company crashed the derivatives market”
Ban derivatives, if it ain’t real it can’t deal.