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Simple Math
Townhall.com ^ | August 18, 2012 | Bill Tatro

Posted on 08/18/2012 3:54:39 AM PDT by Kaslin

Mainstream media and, in fact, all media have made a fundamental error in assessing the 2012 Presidential election.

We continually hear how a majority of people, supposed likely voters, disapprove of the President’s handling of the economy and even more people are disappointed in Obama’s role in the U.S. Federal budget deficit.

In addition, the “real” unemployment situation has everyone shaking their head, not to mention our deteriorating world status as a leading power.

If the election were predicated on all these facts alone, the Obama regime would be in serious trouble.

However, what most of my colleagues are missing regarding this complicated and convoluted campaign is that the end result will boil down to simple mathematics.

Let’s take a step back for a moment.

Four years ago, David Axelrod and his election team focused on the voters, or potential voters, who were most disillusioned with George W. Bush.

Practically speaking, little time was spent on trying to convert people to the Obama philosophy.

Instead, Axelrod and his associates showed young voters that Obama was “cool.” They demonstrated to black voters that Barack was one of them, and to women voters (preferably single mothers), they explained that Obama could feel their pain.

The rest of the economics reflected in the polls was totally irrelevant.

Axelrod and his team knew that if they were able to get the aforementioned people out to vote (the majority), they could win the election.

Fast-forward to the present-day and Axelrod is back in the same position once again. More than a year ago, he left the White House to begin the re-election campaign.

His goal, I believe, is to once again identify the Obama beneficiaries, and just like last time, utilize both technology and shoe-leather in order to make sure these “beneficiaries” vote.

Who are these likely voters that Axelrod is targeting?

Fox News watchers, Friday night cocktail partiers, or even the successful small businessman?

Absolutely not.

Axelrod will focus on the all-time high number of food stamp recipients, the people that are receiving unemployment benefits or those who have fallen off unemployment assistance and have now started to receive disability payments, and the majority who pay no income taxes.

In other words, those that benefit most from the public dole.

With both Obama and Joe Biden making the message loud and clear, Axelrod will also stress that any change in the current administration structure will rock the boat and disrupt the monthly check for all those receiving benefits.

Think about it.

If 51% of the voters are happy with the government’s socialism and 49% are opposed, no amount of voter polls, predictions, or projections will change the inevitable.

Economic pronouncements make good sound bites; however, reality suggests the guy who gives something for nothing is not going to be replaced by the guy who takes it all away.

That’s just simple mathematics.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 08/18/2012 3:54:41 AM PDT by Kaslin
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To: Kaslin

Tipping point. If successful, this would be the American populace committing collective suicide.


2 posted on 08/18/2012 4:07:50 AM PDT by Truth29
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To: Kaslin
Yes, but there's more to the equation.

Those on the public dole are, nearly by definition, unmotivated and stupid. They're anesthetized by their TVs into a numb, ignorant state of servitude. And, generally speaking, they love to put the blame for their condition on someone else.

Who will that scapegoat be? As the journalists and comedians who form the sheeple's opinions begin to waver, Axelrod is losing control. The economy's failing, foreign affairs are perpetually on the brink of another war (how many does that make? 4? 5?), and the President seems to be disinterested and incapable of any effective leadership.

Even the telescreens can't hide it. And Obama is a very easy scapegoat.

I think if the election were held today, OMG DID YOU SEE what Kim Kardashian was WEARING the other day?

3 posted on 08/18/2012 4:15:11 AM PDT by RetroSexual (Eat mor chikin!)
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To: Truth29

In other words, we will get the government we deserve.


4 posted on 08/18/2012 4:15:46 AM PDT by beenaround
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To: Kaslin

Math is never simple in American politics. I would not be surprised at all to see Romney win the popular vote on election day, but see Obama win the electoral victory by winning the really big states by narrow margins. It’s never discussed, but if you have the right states, you can win with 11 and lose the other 39.


5 posted on 08/18/2012 4:21:04 AM PDT by Melas (u)
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To: Kaslin

Exactly. The part of the populace that is living on weelfare is not going to vote for someone who they perceive would take it away from them. And since that part of the poulation has grown immensely, they you are.

I keep on reading on threads that this is going to be a willard “blowout” or “landslide.” I think that’s bordering on delusional. Willard has been doing a lot better since he picked Paul Ryan, and if he continues to play his cards well that buys him a close election and a possible victory, not a landslide.


6 posted on 08/18/2012 4:28:01 AM PDT by RKBA Democrat (Guns Save Lives! www.VCDL.org)
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To: Truth29

The warning should be load and clear “DON’T DRINK THE KOOL ADE”. Amen.


7 posted on 08/18/2012 4:38:39 AM PDT by gakrak ( A man should know his limitations and act accordingly.)
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To: RKBA Democrat

The numbers are excellent for Tea Party ccandidates to win the Senate, veto proof. An Obama win, a virtual certainty given the failure of conservatives to put up a candidate, will guarantee his impeachment on any number of charges of violating the Constitution. Pressure by the electorate will be unbearable on the Senate to try him and convict him. We will see the first sitting US president in prison for crimes against the state. That is my prediction.


8 posted on 08/18/2012 4:44:18 AM PDT by Louis Foxwell (Better the devil we can destroy than the Judas we must tolerate.)
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To: Kaslin

The author rather superficially puts forward a digest of hundreds of Free Republic posts over recent time. As some here say...... Captain Obvious.


9 posted on 08/18/2012 4:50:19 AM PDT by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... Present failure and impending death yield irrational action))
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To: Louis Foxwell

A 2/3 majority is needed for conviction, not just a veto proof majority. We are not going to get near 67 Senators in the next election.


10 posted on 08/18/2012 4:56:12 AM PDT by Truth29
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To: RetroSexual
The electorate is divided right down the almost middle.

The thought divide is that

The Role of Goverment is to HELP PEOPLE
(i.e., directly subsidize me by taking from you.)
vs.
The Role of Government is to efficiently run things so that PEOPLE CAN SUCCEED BY THEIR OWN EFFORTS,
taking as little as possible from everyone

What you (and I) are hoping for is that those who believe in the former cannot be sufficiently motivated to outvote the latter in this election. However, I must point out that those who profess to believe the latter are often NOT MOTIVATED to vote. At least 40% of eligible or potential "right-leaning" voters ARE NOT EVEN REGISTERED.

Every election day, I do the Kenny Bunk Poll at the bar of the VFW and/or Elks. The number of grown men (and women) who DO NOT VOTE is staggering. (On Primary Day, fewer than half voted!)

If the Republicans could turn out a lousy 75% of the so-called "base," for state and national elections, this country would be in a lot less trouble right now.

Personal Note: I once lost a school board election in which there was 11% turnout. I still had to listen to a litany of complaints about the school situation for years afterward! I talk to people. I work on Registration Drives. I drive people to the polls. Sadly, IMNSVHO, Many of the "nice;" the "decent people," of this country seem to somehow consider politics pointless, or somehow not worthy of their thought or effort.

The ancient Greeks had a word for a man (or women) who ignored politics, or far worse, who did not vote:

IDIOTA

11 posted on 08/18/2012 5:15:54 AM PDT by Kenny Bunk (Why aren't Sheriff's Joes findings news?)
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To: Kaslin

What concerns me most is the potential for high-tech ward-heeler tactics to assure that the deadbeat element does vote.

The Democrats have websites and smartphone apps that show the location of every household where registered Dem’s reside. The next step is to have a goon squad visit each of these homes — carrots, sticks, and absentee ballots in hand, to make sure they are voting, and voting as instructed. This is how trade union organizers coerce workers to “petition” for unionization votes — and why unions tried to do away with secret ballots (since absent goon squad coercion, union often lose). Community organizers, ACORNistas, and SEIU types are well aware of these concepts. Communists do not relinquish power quietly; expect them to pull out all the stops this year.


12 posted on 08/18/2012 5:40:06 AM PDT by Chewbarkah
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To: Kaslin

Obama is going to lose by a landslide.


13 posted on 08/18/2012 5:45:47 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Kaslin
"Simple" is the operative word in this sentence.

Especially since those RECENTLY forced on the dole aren't too keen on the meager offerings given to them. They'd rather work.

14 posted on 08/18/2012 5:49:59 AM PDT by Lazamataz (I love the Universe, and it loves me.)
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To: Melas
Math is never simple in American politics. I would not be surprised at all to see Romney win the popular vote on election day, but see Obama win the electoral victory by winning the really big states by narrow margins. It’s never discussed, but if you have the right states, you can win with 11 and lose the other 39.
True, but Texas is one of the biggest, and Republicans count on getting that one.

And as far as the bias of the Electoral College wrt the popular vote goes, that bias is the two additional EV for the two senators. You would get 12 EV for winning a state with 10 CDs, but you would get twenty EV for winning 5 states totaling 10 CDs.

As you say, tho, it also depends on your margin of victory in the states you win. If you lose a state, it doesn’t matter that you got 49% of the vote . . .
The upshot is that the campaigns naturally focus on the states which might tip by a narrow margin. But as I implied, you’d far rather tip 5 little states than one larger one with the same number of CDs.

15 posted on 08/18/2012 5:50:13 AM PDT by conservatism_IS_compassion (The idea around which “liberalism" coheres is that NOTHING actually matters except PR.)
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To: Louis Foxwell

That is my prediction.

Sometimes we all dream.


16 posted on 08/18/2012 6:00:43 AM PDT by chainsaw ("Two ways to conquer and enslave a nation. One is by the sword. The other is by debt.")
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To: RetroSexual

“Those on the public dole are, nearly by definition, unmotivated and stupid.”

One could say that the biggest part of this “on the dole” crowd is seniors on SS and medicare. They are neither unmotivated or stupid...


17 posted on 08/18/2012 6:11:58 AM PDT by babygene (Figures don't lie, but liars can figure...)
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To: Kaslin

It’s going to be a close election. It’s going to take a lot of hard work to unseat the usurper.

I do believe that from a pure electoral mathematics point of view, Obama has the advantage.


18 posted on 08/18/2012 6:32:02 AM PDT by samtheman (Obama. Mugabe. Chavez. (Obamugavez))
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To: Louis Foxwell
The numbers are excellent for Tea Party candidates to win the Senate, veto proof. An Obama win, a virtual certainty given the failure of conservatives to put up a candidate . . .

The millions of people voting for the Tea Party Senate candidates are going to vote for Obama for president? How do you figure?

19 posted on 08/18/2012 6:32:21 AM PDT by Homer_J_Simpson ("Every nation has the government that it deserves." - Joseph de Maistre (1753-1821))
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To: gakrak

“Load and clear?”
What an interesting Freudian slip/typo!
Lock and load is more accurate!


20 posted on 08/18/2012 6:45:08 AM PDT by Dick Bachert
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To: Truth29

The American people committed suicide in the 60s. We’re still in the death throes. Maybe America can be saved by radical treatment; maybe not.

But while I intend to vote for Romney,he is just palliative care, not the cure.


21 posted on 08/18/2012 7:19:47 AM PDT by chesley (God's chosen instrument - the trumpet)
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To: Kaslin
If 51% of the voters are happy with the government’s socialism and 49% are opposed, no amount of voter polls, predictions, or projections will change the inevitable.

You're overlooking one very important poll...The Electoral College.

22 posted on 08/18/2012 7:26:47 AM PDT by Dixie Yooper (Ephesians 6:11)
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To: Homer_J_Simpson

The numbers are excellent for Tea Party candidates to win the Senate, veto proof. An Obama win, a virtual certainty given the failure of conservatives to put up a candidate . . .

The millions of people voting for the Tea Party Senate candidates are going to vote for Obama for president? How do you figure?

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

I do not figure conservatives will elect Obama except by refusing to vote for Romney. That is a dead certainty. There is not a sliver of ideological difference between the two.
Romney is, perhaps, the more dangerous of the two. His religious heritage is communistic. He is an elitist. His principles are based on what will advance his agenda, not what is best for the country. If he wins we will be saddled with an uber Bush.
An Obama win will generate overwhelming opposition from patriots who will demand his impeachment. By winning the Senate a trial is a virtual certainty. All of Obama’s crimes will be brought before the American public in excruciating detail. A finding of guilty and removal from office will guarantee justice for the American people and a return to Constitutional government.
IOW we will have a revolution in this country. It will either be done according to the Constitution or it will be done in the streets. Either way there will be a revolution.


23 posted on 08/18/2012 7:42:04 AM PDT by Louis Foxwell (Better the devil we can destroy than the Judas we must tolerate.)
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To: conservatism_IS_compassion

I doubt it will be the this election, but I don’t think that Texas is going to stay red. So much change so fast. I don’t see how it can.

We’re growing so fast, and more new Texans are left of center than not. That’s not even accounting for the demographic changes.


24 posted on 08/18/2012 7:42:04 AM PDT by Melas (u)
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To: Truth29

A simple majority is needed for conviction.


25 posted on 08/18/2012 7:44:14 AM PDT by Louis Foxwell (Better the devil we can destroy than the Judas we must tolerate.)
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To: Truth29

A simple majority is needed for conviction.

Sorry. You are correct.A 2/3 majority is required. An unlikely outcome unless there is a sudden conversion of democrats to the truth.


26 posted on 08/18/2012 7:46:23 AM PDT by Louis Foxwell (Better the devil we can destroy than the Judas we must tolerate.)
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To: Louis Foxwell

Not even remotely possible. There are only 47 Republican senators. You need 67 senators to convict on impeachment charges. There are 20 Democrat seats up for grabs. Some (half really) are super-safe like Feinstein in CA. To even entertain the idea that the GOP is going to pick up every contested seat is an epic pipe dream. They’d pay good money for whatever is in that pipe in Feinstein’s hometown.


27 posted on 08/18/2012 8:05:21 AM PDT by Melas (u)
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To: Kaslin
With both Obama and Joe Biden making the message loud and clear, Axelrod will also stress that any change in the current administration structure will rock the boat and disrupt the monthly check for all those receiving benefits.

Saw it in the 90's after the government shutdown in 1995 (which was Tom Daschel's idea -- same guy who brought us the Obama campaign in 2008).

Two Reagan Democrat women friends of mine were shaken up by the shutdown (and threat to their finances) to the point that, like St. Peter, they denied Reagan and ever having voted for him, and they began denouncing Republicans and Republicanism vociferously.

Reminiscent of what a former slave once said in 1870: "You tell me how a man gets his money, and I'll tell you what his opinions is."

28 posted on 08/18/2012 8:44:25 AM PDT by lentulusgracchus
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To: conservatism_IS_compassion
True, but Texas is one of the biggest, and Republicans count on getting that one.

That's why Democrats since Lyndon Johnson have been kicking down the border fences and flooding the country with Mexicans.

Mexicans vote like Communists want them to -- not hard to figure, since Mexico had a communist revolution 90 years ago and that socialist party has been basically running Mexico ever since, and controlling the populace politically with subsidies and "Obama money".

29 posted on 08/18/2012 8:49:24 AM PDT by lentulusgracchus
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To: Louis Foxwell
I do not figure conservatives will elect Obama except by refusing to vote for Romney. That is a dead certainty.

Or extremely unlikely. I predict conservatives will vote overwhelmingly for Romney.

30 posted on 08/18/2012 9:29:57 AM PDT by Homer_J_Simpson ("Every nation has the government that it deserves." - Joseph de Maistre (1753-1821))
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To: Kaslin

But wait. Aren’t we supposed to hate Romney because he is a RINO, he is a Mormon, and he is just the same as Obama? Some think it does not matter who wins. Some think our republic will survive four more years of Obama. Yeah, some have a United States of America suicide wish.


31 posted on 08/18/2012 9:40:32 AM PDT by doug from upland (Just in case, it has been reserved: www.TheBitchIsBack2012.com)
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To: doug from upland

you can say that again


32 posted on 08/18/2012 1:08:19 PM PDT by Kaslin (Acronym for OBAMA: One Big Ass Mistake America)
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To: RKBA Democrat
I think you're right. The Republicans keep acting like we're playing Old Maid for a lot of money in the Pump Room ...... but the other guys are playing Three Card Monte with knives in their belts, Lorcins in their boots, and confederates lurking at all the doors.
33 posted on 08/18/2012 1:10:53 PM PDT by lentulusgracchus
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To: Melas
There are 20 Democrat seats up for grabs. Some (half really) are super-safe like Feinstein in CA. To even entertain the idea that the GOP is going to pick up every contested seat is an epic pipe dream.

That's why I've been saying since spring that the House ought to impeach Holder over Fast and Furious and the NBPP "catch-and-release [convicted felons]" episode IMMEDIATELY and force the Senate Democrats to stand behind him all summer and autumn long going into the elections.

If the 'Pubbies can parlay that into 67 Senate seats, THEN they can go after Obama immediately on a galaxy of charges.

34 posted on 08/18/2012 1:15:09 PM PDT by lentulusgracchus
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To: doug from upland
Some think it does not matter who wins.

If you get 67 Senate seats, it doesn't, because Obama will be leaving office strapped to a NASA booster.

Salus populi suprema lex, not whether Mitt gets in. Lift up thy eyes, FRiend.

35 posted on 08/18/2012 1:18:08 PM PDT by lentulusgracchus
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To: Louis Foxwell

I dont think an impeachment is likely. Even if we get a bunch of new conservatives in the senate, they’ll still be in the minority. You’ll still have the center left running things, even if they have an “R” after their name.

And then there’s still going to be the weeper running the house. I don’t see him or his cronies having the brass to impeach. He’d probably start boo-hooing the moment it’s suggested.


36 posted on 08/18/2012 1:31:31 PM PDT by RKBA Democrat (Guns Save Lives! www.VCDL.org)
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To: lentulusgracchus

To further the analogy, the gop doesn’t bring a knife to a gunfight. They usually bring flowers, chocolates and tear-stained love poems.

Better a dem division in front of me than a gop division behind me.


37 posted on 08/18/2012 1:35:23 PM PDT by RKBA Democrat (Guns Save Lives! www.VCDL.org)
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To: Louis Foxwell

“You are correct.A 2/3 majority is required. An unlikely outcome unless there is a sudden conversion of democrats to the truth.”

Not this side of heaven.


38 posted on 08/18/2012 1:37:19 PM PDT by RKBA Democrat (Guns Save Lives! www.VCDL.org)
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To: lentulusgracchus

Oh, I get it. Let’s destroy Romney and then hope that his destruction somehow results in our side magically getting 67 Senate seats. History is really on our side with that. Utter foolishness.


39 posted on 08/18/2012 1:53:13 PM PDT by doug from upland (Just in case, it has been reserved: www.TheBitchIsBack2012.com)
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To: doug from upland; Kaslin

40 posted on 08/18/2012 5:53:04 PM PDT by 4Liberty (Some on our "Roads & Bridges" head to the beach. Others head to their offices, farms, libraries....)
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To: RKBA Democrat
They usually bring flowers, chocolates and tear-stained love poems.

Sealed with a tearful kiss by John Boehner himself. Those Republican guys, they're so sentimental!

Or maybe they just don't gee or haw to anyone but the K Street bagmen.

41 posted on 08/18/2012 11:40:44 PM PDT by lentulusgracchus
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To: doug from upland
Oh, I get it.

No, you don't. You refuse to get it. You're being sarcastic.

Utter foolishness.

You're riding with the RiNO Club even while they're urinating all over your head and up and down your leg, and you lecture me about "foolishness"?

42 posted on 08/18/2012 11:44:31 PM PDT by lentulusgracchus
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To: FReepers; Patriots


Aim your fire here.

43 posted on 08/18/2012 11:50:36 PM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: Kaslin

Sadly, the land of the free is becoming the home of the slaves. One half of the people dependent, virtual wards of the state, and the other half taxed into oblivion, at the point of a gun, to support them.

The fix?

Elect folks who understand the obligations of their oaths to support the Constitution of the United States, to defend the God-given, unalienable rights of the people, while staying within the Enumerated Powers.

None of which Obama Democrats nor Romney Republicans can be counted upon to do, of course.


44 posted on 08/19/2012 12:06:39 AM PDT by EternalVigilance (The saving of America starts the day conservatives stop supporting what they say they hate.)
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To: lentulusgracchus

re: You’re riding with the RiNO Club even while they’re urinating all over your head and up and down your leg, and you lecture me about “foolishness”?


Your eloquent words paint a picture that takes the reader from his mundane world, brilliantly capturing his imagination, and making him feel that he is really there.

The ever naive Doug from Upland, who refuses to get it, is tricked into riding a fine steed with the RiNO Club. The members take him out to the meadow and systematically begin showering him with bodily fluids. In the warm summer sun, the fluids begin drenching his head and finish their ephemeral journey by running down his leg and staining his True Religion jeans. Then, in a remarkable feat that would have had Sir Issac Newton question his Universal Law of Gravitation, the fluids inexplicably begin running up DFU’s leg.

Ah, yes, FReepers, lentulusgracchus is the master wordsmith. We may not know the color of the sky in the fantasy world in which he lives, but with his political expertise and logic, we should hold him in awe. The GOP, despite a victory by Obama, is going to capture 67 Senate seats. Shortly thereafter, charges will be brought in the House and, Barack Hussein Obama, only the third U.S. President to ever be impeached, will be convicted in the Senate and removed from office. It is a carefully crafted Machiavellian plan with a very high probability of success.


45 posted on 08/19/2012 7:21:06 AM PDT by doug from upland (Just in case, it has been reserved: www.TheBitchIsBack2012.com)
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