Skip to comments.Goldman Sachs: The Economy Is Stronger Than You Think
Posted on 08/18/2012 1:17:38 PM PDT by blam
Goldman Sachs: The Economy Is Stronger Than You Think
08/17/2012 3:33 AM
Recent strategy notes from Goldman Sachs are consistent with my overall view of the US economy its stronger than the recessionistas have long thought. So the good news is things arent yet contracting. The bad news is the economy is still too weak to substantially bring down the rate of unemployment. And the good/bad news is that this reduces the likelihood of QE this year. More from Goldmans Jan Hatzius (via ZH):
The US economic recovery remains sluggish, but we believe that it will pick up a bit in coming months. Tuesdays data were generally in line with this expectation:
1. Stronger retail sales. The July retail sales report showed a clear upside surprise, with a 0.9% gain in sales excluding autos, building materials, and gasoline. The month-to-month strength was broad-based, with sizable gains in most core categories, although it mainly served to reverse some of the declines in the prior month.
2. Slower inventory accumulation. Inventory accumulation has slowed clearly in recent months, with book-value business inventories up just 0.1% in June, down from a peak of 0.8% in January. We believe that this slowdown has been partly responsible for the disappointing performance in manufacturing surveys such as the ISM and Philly Fed. If it is ending, that should help the manufacturing sector over the next few months.
Our proprietary measures of US economic growth have also picked up a bit further. Our Q3 GDP tracking estimate rose to 2.3% from 2.2%, our current activity indicator (CAI) now stands at 1.2% in July after 1.1% in June, and our US-MAP index of US economic data surprises is moving quickly further toward neutral readings on a 60-day exponential moving average basis.
I feel better now...these guys are good! </ sarc>
Sounds like another classic “pump and dump” attempt to me...
It’s especially strong at the pumps! $4 gas is back! Yippee!
Translation - GS wants the suckers to stay in the market long enough for GS's shorts to be put in place.
Our proprietary measures of US economic growth have also picked up a bit further. Our Q3 GDP tracking estimate rose to 2.3% from 2.2%, our current activity indicator (CAI) now stands at 1.2%....>>>>>>>>>
Wow, happy days are here again.
Time to be 100% invested in non-stock securities.
Oh, I see. When Bush was President, things were “bad” no matter how things really were. Now that hussein is in office, well heck there son, things are really pretty good, trust us!
Please click the link.
The Republic you save may be your own.
Come on you muppets, buy these socks!
Most of the writers at Zero Hedge seem to disagree with the Muppet Masters. You gotta know, if you are not brain dead, that GS is going to be betting against whatever they recommend to the Muppets. Notice the nonsense percentage comparisons for retail sales: .9 increase for month to month, which is insignificant an easily a measurement error in addition to being less than the monthly inflation rate of approximately 1.0%.
In keeping with the Justice Department decision not to prosecute us criminally last week, the good people at Goldman Sachs are declaring “the private sector is fine”.
They were bailed out. It’s like GM saying they REALLY want the mileage standard to be raised to 53 MPG, or whatever it is. They answer to their masters, that simple.
they better hope it is....its “their” necks at this point when it goes blewy!!