FR Exclusive: Political Junkie's Guide To The Elections - Week Ending August 11, 2012

Rasmussen Reports ^ | August 12, 2012 | Political Junkie Too

[Political Junkie Too]

Previous Editions:

August 4, 2012
July 21, 2012
Premier - July 4, 2012

Here is the latest update of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.

The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and updates those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.

Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.

This Edition's Updates:

Since the last report, Rasmussen published polls in Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, and a re-poll in Wisconsin. Obama's Electoral College count has gone down to 260 Electoral Votes to Romney's growth to 238, with 37 EV up for grabs. If the election were held today, the race would be leaning to Obama. Probabilistically, Romney has a 25.1% chance of winning today, an increase of about 13% from the prior report.

In Colorado, the race is still a tie. Romney's gained 2% from the mid-June poll, but so did Obama, leaving the race as a Toss-up.

In Florida, Romney made a slight gain, increasing his 1% lead to 2% from the June poll. Romney's support fell by 1% from June, but Obama's support fell by 2%, inching Florida into the Leans Romney category, moving Florida's 29 Electoral Votes into Romney's column.

In Indiana, the bottom fell out for the Obama campaign. Romney gained 3% from a late-May poll, while Obama lost 7%, making Indiana safe for Romney.

In Iowa, Romney lost 1% from a mid-June poll, while Obama lost 2%, netting a 2% lead for Romney. Iowa moves from Toss-up to Leans Romney and another 6 Electoral Vote pickup.

In Ohio, Romney held his support from a mid-July poll, while Obama lost 2%. Ohio moves from Leans Obama to Toss-up, and Obama loses 18 Electoral Votes.

In Virginia, Obama had some success. Romney held his position from a mid-July poll, while Obama gained 1%, netting a 2% lead for Obama. Virginia moves from Toss-up to Leans Obama and gives him 13 Electoral Votes, making back some of the 18 he lost in Ohio.

In Wisconsin, a big shift happened - again. Rasmussen re-polled his late-July poll because of the primary, and Romney regained his loss plus another 1%. Obama lost 2% from the July poll, but is still in a better place than his 44% from mid-June. While not totally re-flipping, Wisconsin moves to a Toss-up, taking another 10 Electoral Votes away from Obama.

Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or last election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.

Watch List:

• Colorado: +0% (R +0%)
• Florida: +1% (R +2%)
• Georgia: No Poll (R +5.2%) - not polled yet, 2008 result
• Indiana: +10% (R +16%) - drops out of the margin of error
• Iowa: +1% (R +2%)
• Michigan: No Poll (R -6%)
• Missouri: No Poll (R +6%)
• Montana: No Poll (R +7%)
• Nevada: No Poll (R -5%)
• New Hampshire: No Poll (R -5%)
• North Carolina: No Poll (R +5%)
• Ohio: +2% (R +0%)
• Pennsylvania: No Poll (R -4%)
• South Carolina: No Poll (R +9.0%) - not polled yet, 2008 result, considered Safe
• South Dakota: No Poll (R +8.4%) - not polled yet, 2008 result, considered Safe
• Virginia: -1% (R -2%)
• Wisconsin: +4% (R +1%)

Summary of Electoral College breakdown

Obama - 260								Romney - 238
Safe		Strong		Leaning		Toss-Up		Leaning		Strong		Safe
EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State
55	California	16	Michigan	13	Virginia	9	Colorado	29	Florida	16	Georgia	9	Alabama
7	Connecticut	4	New Hampshire			18	Ohio	6	Iowa	10	Missouri	3	Alaska
3	District of Columbia	6	Nevada			10	Wisconsin			15	North Carolina	11	Arizona
3	Delaware	20	Pennsylvania									6	Arkansas
4	Hawaii											4	Idaho
20	Illinois											11	Indiana
4	Maine											6	Kansas
10	Maryland											8	Kentucky
11	Massachusetts											8	Louisiana
10	Minnesota											6	Mississippi
14	New Jersey											3	Montana
5	New Mexico											5	Nebraska
29	New York											3	North Dakota
7	Oregon											7	Oklahoma
4	Rhode Island											9	South Carolina
3	Vermont											3	South Dakota
12	Washington											11	Tennessee
												38	Texas
												6	Utah
												5	West Virginia
												3	Wyoming
201		46		13		37		35		41		162

2008 Final Results

Link to 2008 Final Election Map

Current State Leanings

Link to Current Electoral College Map

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Electoral Votes P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 270” – The probability associated with value 270 (the Electoral College majority goal).

Week	GOP Electoral College P10	GOP Electoral College EV	GOP Electoral College P90	Probability of 270
2008 Election	180	180	180	0.00%
12-May-12	193	220.73	248	0.16%
19-May-12	197	225.09	248	0.23%
26-May-12	206	232.72	256	1.21%
02-Jun-12	216	242.46	266	4.43%
09-Jun-12	221	247.73	275	14.02%
16-Jun-12	230	257.37	282	28.95%
23-Jun-12	231	257.92	282	30.10%
30-Jun-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%
07-Jul-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%
14-Jul-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%
21-Jul-12	219	248.33	276	16.46%
28-Jul-12	215	244.1	272	11.78%
04-Aug-12	216	245.64	273	12.75%
11-Aug-12	215	245.24	273	12.05%
18-Aug-12	225	255.61	282	25.11%

Link to Probability Chart

And in the Senate...

The race for Senate control is still see-sawing. The Republicans, yet again, gain a state here and lose a state there.

This is the latest run of my Rasmussen state-by-state Senate model.

The model begins with the final results of the last Class 1 election, and I will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2010 Senate results were Republicans taking 47 seats, and Democrats caucusing 53 seats. My model begins with here.

As of now, the Senate still looks to be a 51-49 GOP take-over, with a probability of 84.3%.

Since the last report, Rasmussen published polls in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

In Florida, with the primary behind them, Republican Mack lost 6% from a mid-July poll, while incumbent Democrat Nelson gained 10%, making this race a 47%-40% hold for Democrats. Previously, the July poll had Republicans gaining this seat.

In Ohio, the state appears to be moving towards Republicans. Mandel gained 2% from the July poll, while incumbent Brown lost 2%, making this race a 44% toss-up.

In Virginia, Republican Allen picked up another 1% from the July poll, while Democrat Kaine remains unchanged over three polls. The race is now tied at 46%. Let's hope that the Senate race is a foreshadowing of the President's race.

In Wisconsin, the new poll proves that the last one was an outlier. Republican Thompson went from 52% to 41% and back to 54%, while Democrat Baldwin went from 36% to 48% and down to 43%. Wisconsin is now a safe gain for Republicans.

Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or seat election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.

Watch List:

• Florida 2: -16% (R -7%) - moves back into the margin of error
• Indiana 2: No Poll (R +2%)
• Massachusetts 1: No Poll (R +0%)
• Missouri2: No Poll (R +6%)
• Montana 2: No Poll (R +2%)
• New Mexico 1: No Poll (R -4%)
• Ohio 1: +4 (R +0%)
• Rhode Island 2: No Poll (R -7%)
• Tennessee 2: No Poll (R +2.7%)
• Virginia 2: +1% (R +0%)
• Wisconsin 2: +18% (R +11%) - moves out of the margin of error

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Senate Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Senate Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Senate Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 51” – The probability associated with value 51 (the Senate majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (47), rounded down.

Week	GOP Senate Seats P10	GOP Senate Seats EV	GOP Senate Seats P90	Probability of 51	GOP Gain
2010 Election	47	47	47	0.00%	0
12-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
19-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
26-May-12	49	50.75	52	58.53%	3
02-Jun-12	49	50.63	52	54.34%	3
09-Jun-12	49	50.37	52	44.50%	3
16-Jun-12	49	50.37	52	44.50%	3
23-Jun-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
30-Jun-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
07-Jul-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
14-Jul-12	51	52.04	54	91.10%	5
21-Jul-12	51	52.19	54	92.42%	5
28-Jul-12	51	52.17	54	92.18%	5
04-Aug-12	50	51.33	53	75.39%	4
11-Aug-12	50	51.43	53	78.01%	4
18-Aug-12	50	51.76	53	84.33%	4

Link to Senate Probability Chart

-PJ

[Impy]

I don’t know how Nader got over 2% 12 years ago but Obama/McLame got over 98% of the vote against an Indy Nader and 2 former members of Congress on the Green and Libertarian tickets.

So I don’t see Goode and Johnson making much difference. Johnson it seems takes pretty evenly from both and probably won’t be a factor outside his own state.

The only thing is Goode could hurt in his critical home state with just 1 or 2 points. I hope not. Bob Barr did very poorly in his home state of Georgia in 2008, less than 1%.

No Nader this time. I don’t know who the Greens have but the Roseanne Barr/Cindy Sheenhan ticket is on the Peace and Freedom ballot in Cali! So is a member of this site on the American Independent ballot.

[pistolpackinpapa]

After yesterday’s unbelievable gaffe by Todd Aikin, you can give MO to Claire McKaskill. The DNC is already using Aikin’s comments to raise money nationally.

[justiceseeker93]

After yesterday’s unbelievable gaffe by Todd Aikin, you can give MO to Claire McKaskill.

I heard what Todd Akin said. It was a gaffe, but hardly "unbelievable." Of course the desperate 'Rats are out there jumping down his throat because they know they're behind and have to use every opportunity.

But was it such a terrible gaffe, compared to some of Obama's (e.g., "57 states" or "you didn't build that") or Biden's (e.g., asking a disabled person to stand up in a crowd, claiming that FDR went on TV after the 1929 stock market crash, "'jobs' is a 3-letter word" and many, many more) or Elizabeth Warren's alleged American Indian ancestry?

Fact is that the pro-abortion crowd, which would be the part of the electorate offended by Akin's gaffe, would be already voting for McKaskill anyway. And I wouldn't think that abortion is such a hot button issue this year anyway.

[randita]

Fact is that the pro-abortion crowd, which would be the part of the electorate offended by Akin's gaffe, would be already voting for McKaskill anyway.

Maybe so. But what about beyond MO. Remember how Mark Foley impacted the entire national scene. Akin could as well. Foley may have been re-elected had he run again and won-who knows. But he would be sitting there in Congress with a bull's eye on his head. Same will happen with Akin if he wins. We don't need that.

[pistolpackinpapa]

the desperate ‘Rats are out there jumping down his throat because they know they’re behind and have to use every opportunity.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Well, this ignoramus gave them an opportunity.....a very big opportunity. The people of MO should have listened to Sarah Palin and chosen Sarah Steele as the GOP candidate.

[justiceseeker93]

Maybe so. But what about beyond MO. Remember how Mark Foley impacted the entire national scene. Akin could as well. Foley may have been re-elected had he run again and won-who knows. But he would be sitting there in Congress with a bull's eye on his head. Same will happen with Akin if he wins. We don't need that.

Closest thing in recent years I can compare this to is George Allen's "macaca" remark. But that was in VA where the WaPo has its clout, and I think it was closer to the election in timing. It hurt Allen in a close race, but that was a 'Rat year nationally. Missouri has no equivalent to the WaPo. And most importantly, abortion is not on the radar screen nationally this year.

No, the drive-bys will have a field day with Akin for a couple of days, but the GOP National Convention will knock it out of the headlines next week.

[gleeaikin]

The Greens have Dr. Jill Stein, a Harvard graduate physician. She is a neat conservatively dressed gray haired woman. The Roseanne Barr competition was pretty much a joke, although it did bring some publicity to the race. RB will probably do better in California than she did nationally with the Greens, although she did well with black voters.

[gleeaikin]

The Greens have Dr. Jill Stein, a Harvard graduate physician. She is a neat conservatively dressed gray haired woman. The Roseanne Barr competition was pretty much a joke, although it did bring some publicity to the race. RB will probably do better in California than she did nationally with the Greens, although she did well with black voters.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks justiceseeker93.

[Impy]

Stein, yes, forgot her name. She’s the one who ran for MA Governor on the Rainbow Green ticket or something like that. LOL

With no Nader she’s in the running for 3rd place but I’d bet on Johnson getting that ‘honor’ over her and Goode.

[gleeaikin]

I don’t know if it’s true, but I encountered one report that said she did a better job than Romney when they debated in MA. I do hope they will let the small party candidates take part in at least some of the debates. One thing that separates the Green Party from the big parties, and I think also the others is that they take no corporate or big labor donations. How refreshing.

[Impy]

A third party candidate they will let in the POTUS debates if they hit like 15% in the polls. Not gonna happen for any of them, not by a mile. They will have their own debate that Romney and Obama will not attend. So Stein ain’t gonna be in the ring with Romney again. I recall hearing he did do bad in those 2002 debates, I thought he would lose but he still beat the rat O’Brien.

No corporate or labor money is nice, but to be fair I doubt any of the third parties have been offered any. I doubt the Greens would refuse labor money. The Libertarians and Constitution parties maybe would reject corporate if offered but they will not get offered any. No one wants to a buy a party that can’t win, there would be no point.

[GOPsterinMA]

Dr. Jill Stein, from Lexington. Typical yenta that has too much time and money...

“I thought he would lose but he still beat the rat O’Brien.”

Shannon O’Brien is a repulsive douche...very much like Coakley and Warren (notice a trend?).

Glove’s biggest attribute is that he runs against such bile that he looks good by comparison.