Before you get too encouraged, you Freepers need know that the graveyards and prisons are full of voters who weren't included in this poll!
Posted on 08/20/2012 5:18:02 AM PDT by Zakeet
President Barack Obama could lose his home state of Illinois in November, a new poll shows.
A poll conducted by Illinois-based pollster and political strategist Michael McKeon found Obama leading Republican Mitt Romney by 49 percent to 37 percent in Cook County, the home of Chicago. That puts him ahead by a far thinner margin than expected in a county he should be winning handsomely.
Cook is the most Democratic leaning county in the state. It is also the most populous.
Those numbers do not bode well for the president.
“He has to come out of Cook County with a big lead or he’s gonna have problems downstate,” explained McKeon, who said that based on the numbers he had seen, Obama polled only in the forties in downstate Illinois.
“It’s not like his policies are very popular downstate,” McKeon said. “He’s viewed as more part of Chicago than he is part of Illinois.”
According to the poll, which surveyed 629 registered voters last week, Obama’s problems are not in Chicago proper, but in suburban Cook County.
In the city of Chicago itself, he retains a 60-29 lead over Romney. But the Republican challenger leads 45-38 in the surrounding areas. Across the county as a whole, Romney leads 43-31 among independent voters, a crucial voting bloc. Romney also holds a 44-38 lead among male voters, and a 53-40 lead among white voters.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailycaller.com ...
Before you get too encouraged, you Freepers need know that the graveyards and prisons are full of voters who weren't included in this poll!
This is pretty “pie in the sky” news. Ain’t gonna happen. My home state of Illinois, the corruption capital of the US, will vote for Obama. No questions.
Yeah, but this is also registered voters, not likely. Add two more points to Romney.
Agreed. No way Illinois goes Republican this year. A tighter race in solid blue states is a good sign, though. It means blue-leaning swing states are definitely in play.
Chicago: Stealing Elections Since 1960
ping
There's nothing "Democratic" about RATs.
It is also the most populous.
It is also the most corrupt.
The lead in the city would be greater except in the last four years the constituents have killed each other off.
Things haven't changed much since 1960.
Well, they certainly aren’t ALL dumb in Illinois.
and even if he doesn’t get the majority of votes there, he will win Illinois by a landslide.
He has to come out of Cook County with a big lead or he’s gonna have problems downstate
You got that right. We So. Ill. folks no likey da Lightbringer.
Chicago is AWASH in MURDERS.......this could change some minds.
I don’t understand. What does Kenya have to do with Illinois?
I worked for Nixon-Lodge in ‘59-60 in Chicago’s NW Suburbs, so I know about a stolen election, believe me...
Didn’t Mondale lose his home state of Minnesota in1984, vs. Reagan redux?
This is not so far fetched.
Registered voter polls are worthless. However, if Willard was truly polling at 37% in Cook County, that is 15% higher than McCain’s paltry 22% showing in ‘08. If that is the case statewide, using the ‘08 returns, that adds up to a 50-47% Willard statewide victory. If he carries IL, the race is over. Still, I don’t think it’s likely (even Carter carried Georgia in 1980 handily (56-41%) despite his abysmal national showing).
I predict Obama will get 120% of the Cook county vote!
No, Mondale carried Minnesota. MN hasn’t voted GOP for President since 1972.
1984
We're looking more at a 1980 parallel here...
The cemetaries have been voting in Illinois for years, and they all vote Democrat. They can’t let CA fall off the cliff all alone.
Just the same, it’s nice to see SOME of them are waking up.
Agreed. But the thinner-than-expected margin may force Obama to spend some time and money in IL that would have been better spent elsewhere, like Ohio or Florida.
Yeah, but this is also registered voters, not likely. Add two more points to Romney.
Voting machines don’t register, but they vote big time in hicongo.
I saw something interesting this morning in the IBD.
The column described California as two states with the dichotomy equal to going from Alabama in the rural areas to Massachusetts along the coast.
Perhaps it’s time to split that badboy up.
Cook County should be its own state.
Chicago Values = Crook County.
“Didn’t Mondale lose his home state of Minnesota in1984, vs. Reagan redux? This is not so far fetched.”
Yup! And remember, in 2000, Gore lost TN to Bush.
As for Obama. First off, he’s a Chicago transplant. None of his relatives are buried in that town. Secondly, I have family both in Cook County, Joliet and Springfield. Some are D’s,some are R’s...though not a one of them considers him a ‘local’.
If Chicago turnout is low (blacks and ethnic unionized whites)...anything is possible. I’d let Ryan do the talking.
I worked for Nixon-Lodge in ‘59-60 in Chicago’s NW Suburbs, so I know about a stolen election, believe me...
Then you know all about how Kennedy won the presidency!
There is only one problem (when it comes to voting anyways) every murder is another Obama voter... The dead are never dead in Chicago...
They come out once a year to vote. (sometimes twice)
Uhh no. Minnesota is the only state Mondale carried.
I doubt this poll.My daughter lives in a high rise off the Loop in Chicago. She says Republican primary day is a breeze in her building as there is never any wait in the Republican primary voting room while the Dem room usually has lines out the door.She said she once saw a person enter the room while she was there but it turned out to be a delivery guy who lost his way.
And Al Gore lost Tennessee in 2000.
The only thing that does is add numbers to the Democrat voting rolls -- 1 from prison and 1 from the graveyard.
He’s counting on Chicago to pull him through. They delivered for Kennedy in ‘60. They can produce votes to order: 100K fresh and hot votes coming up. Do you want fries with that?
No way. Like CA and NY, Illinois is conquered territory and is going nowhere. The dems will never let that one get away.
This poll is very timely, given the story over the weekend regarding the ubiquitous copies from the federal govt of "expired" social security numbers. "expired" my ass! These lists will be quite handy in Illinois this year.
My client sent me to a small town north of Carthage Tennessee. I dreaded the trip because I would pass through Carthage and endure the Gore favorite son hype. To my surprise there was none, zero nada.
Apparently Carthage Tennessee disowned Al Gore
The colors are backward.
If dead people weren’t polled, then this poll is worthless.
Tagline.
In 2004, the ‘polls’ gave us President Kerry.
In 2010, the ‘polls’ showed the Dems win, after which CNN Wolfe Blitzer and others commented on the ‘shellacking’ the Dems took.
==
We cannot and should not trust polls. Any poll can be designed and manipulated to produce a desired result. Many of these current polls are doing just that.
Medicare/Mediscare will be influential in Florida and similar ‘retirement’ states, but the problem for Dems/Obama in November is going to be the ‘pocketbook’ issues — joblessness, inflation, gas prices, the overall economy.
I expect [and hope] to see another ‘shellacking’ in November and Obama barely getting the same EV numbers McCain got in 2008.
Do you really believe that getting killed off is going to prevent those people from voting in Chicago?
I think the dichotomy list is going to grow.
North and South Dakota have the east and west that are at odds with one another politically.
In South Dakota, East river is ag and big city democrats. West River is conservative except for Indian Reservations.
Western North Dakota is energy, and Eastern ND wants to control the money in Western ND.
Smith County was one of the die-hard Dem counties in TN. It only voted twice for the GOP for President in 50 years, in the ‘72 landslide and against Zero in ‘08 (it still went for Kerry in ‘04).
There is still “hope”.
Ping
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