Skip to comments.How Long Do We Have To Wait Before Wrong Is Wrong?
Posted on 08/20/2012 1:57:37 PM PDT by blam
How Long Do We Have To Wait Before Wrong Is Wrong?
08/19/2012 8:47 PM
A good economist will always give you a prediction or a timeframe, but never both. This applies to a great deal of people outside of economists and market pundits and I think it also has to do with the fact that asset managers generally garner more respect regarding predictions than economists do. You see, a money manager HAS to give you both. There is no hedging in the commentary from an asset manager because theyre backing up predictions with an investment portfolio. Portfolio managers are in the business of making predictions AND offering timeframes.
But economists and market pundits have the luxury of offering you a prediction and then essentially saying it will happen, just you wait .and by the time it hasnt happened youll have forgotten I ever made the prediction. Its a glorious business, the business of making predictions in the world of economics. Thats why I generally dont trust or put much credence in the predictions made by most mainstream economists. In fact, Id say that most economists dont even make predictions. They just make really loosely described macro comments and then cherry pick the ones they want at a later date.
Anyhow, I was having a discussion Twitter with some smart people about the Kyle Bass trade on Japan. As you may or may not know Bass has been betting on higher rates in Japan based on a debt crisis like that in Greece. According to Business Insider its turned into a total disaster because Bass predicted that Japan would default like Greece. He made this very vocal prediction about 2 years ago. I came out at the same time and stated the opposite.
(Excerpt) Read more at pragcap.com ...
I'm beginning to wonder too.
Don’t ever become a pessimist... a pessimist is correct oftener than an optimist, but an optimist has more fun, and neither can stop the march of events.
Robert A. Heinlein
Wrong is wrong, even when everybody is doing it, right is right, even when no one is doing it.
I'm not sure it is a choice. I think it comes with lifes observation and experiences. I feel a little like Mark Twain; I was born an optimist but it didn't stick.
There is nothing sadder than a young pessimist. Mark Twain
The man who is a pessimist before 40 knows too much; if he is an optimist after 40, he knows too little. ---Mark Twain
As a pessimist, I am usually always right and when I am wrong, I am pleasantly surprised.
"The optimist proclaims that we live in the best of all possible worlds, and the pessimist fears this is true." - James Branch Cabell
This is good advice.
"Keep away from people who try to belittle your ambitions. Small people always do that, but the really great make you feel that you, too, can become great." Mark Twain
Here’s some news that might affect the economy and isn’t getting around much. This summer, China took the Paracel and Spratly Islands between Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines. There’s a large oil deposit under the Spratly Islands, but the move is probably more about controlling ocean routes and the One-China policy toward gathering more southern nations. Historical colonizations of various parts of China often accompany quiet speech about the coming consolidations in Asia. China is now offering invitations to tourists to visit the Paracels.
But yes, there’s much hysterical political speech these days about various end-of-the-world and end-of-freedom scenarios—most of them, intended distractions from what’s more likely ahead. And BTW, parts of Asia continue to increase production and will need much more oil contrary to the propaganda we’ve been seeing since at least 2007.
Some of the better guesses about our near future come from small groups of men who study macro-economics, cultures and history. They mainly do contracts for governments, large, global companies and the like. They even studied the intention destruction of our western, working class families and fatherhood by bipartisan VIP constituents concerned about overpopulation, high costs of labor, rejections of their relatives’ social inclinations and other motives. You had to know some of those men personally to know about what they were doing (or be one of their clients).
Have fun. Enjoy the slide. Or sleep, and enjoy the surprises ahead.