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Obama 47% Romney 46% (Reg. Voters / Dems sampled +6)
Monmouth College ^ | 8/20/2012 | Patrick Murray

Posted on 08/20/2012 2:39:50 PM PDT by GlockThe Vote

In the presidential contest, registered voters give a slight edge to the incumbent, with 45% saying they intend to support Barack Obama in this year’s election compared to 41% for Mitt Romney. That advantage narrows to 46% – 45% among American voters who are considered the most likely to vote at this time. In June, Obama’s lead in the Monmouth University Poll was 46% to 42% among registered voters and 47% to 46% among likely voters. Independent voters are split – 40% for Romney to 37% for Obama. Obama claims 87% support among Democrats and Romney has 87% of the Republican vote.

(Excerpt) Read more at monmouth.edu ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012electionbias; 2012polls; anotherpoll; dnctalkingpoints; zogbyism
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POLL DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)

27% Rep 48% Male 23% 18-34 73% White

33% Dem 52% Female 39% 35-54 10% Black

40% Ind 38% 55+ 11

1 posted on 08/20/2012 2:39:56 PM PDT by GlockThe Vote
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To: GlockThe Vote

Obama is in DDDEEEEEP trouble.

Over sampling Democrats by 6 and using registered voters and the best they can do is Obama +1?


2 posted on 08/20/2012 2:41:45 PM PDT by GlockThe Vote (The Obama Adminstration: 2nd wave of attacks on America after 9/11)
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To: GlockThe Vote

A poll of ‘registered voters’ means nothing.


3 posted on 08/20/2012 2:45:52 PM PDT by South40 ("Islam has a proud tradition of tolerance." Hussein Obama, Cairo, Egypt, June 4, 2009)
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To: GlockThe Vote

This is before the Todd Akin fallout. Obama can easily still sweep.


4 posted on 08/20/2012 2:47:36 PM PDT by newzjunkey (Election night is 77 days away.)
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To: South40

Correct - but if its only got obama at 46% w 6% RAT over sample - its no wonder why he is freaking out daily.


5 posted on 08/20/2012 2:48:10 PM PDT by GlockThe Vote (The Obama Adminstration: 2nd wave of attacks on America after 9/11)
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To: GlockThe Vote

How long until they break the double digits in oversampling?


6 posted on 08/20/2012 2:49:56 PM PDT by Shadow44
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To: newzjunkey

The freak show better drop out or it will an albatross until November.


7 posted on 08/20/2012 2:49:55 PM PDT by GlockThe Vote (The Obama Adminstration: 2nd wave of attacks on America after 9/11)
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To: GlockThe Vote
Remember, Reagan didn't get his landslide winning factor until the last month of the campaign in 1980. As such, we could see a gigantic political bloodbath against Obama, and even the Democratic National Committee after this election may gang up against the Chicago Democratic Party "mob."

Don't even be surprised at all if either Romney or Ryan makes a surprise appearance on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart. If that happens, it will be officially all over for President Obama.

8 posted on 08/20/2012 2:50:03 PM PDT by RayChuang88 (FairTax: America's economic cure)
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To: RayChuang88

Ryan will definately do Stewart.


9 posted on 08/20/2012 2:51:06 PM PDT by GlockThe Vote (The Obama Adminstration: 2nd wave of attacks on America after 9/11)
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To: GlockThe Vote

More crap poles... garbage!


10 posted on 08/20/2012 2:52:36 PM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: GlockThe Vote
Point taken.

I just did some research and on average, only 55% of registered voters vote in presidential elections.

National Voter Turnout in Federal Elections: 1960–2010

11 posted on 08/20/2012 2:54:05 PM PDT by South40 ("Islam has a proud tradition of tolerance." Hussein Obama, Cairo, Egypt, June 4, 2009)
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To: GlockThe Vote

What does vote fraud add to Obama’s total? I’d say that it cancels out oversampling by probably five points.


12 posted on 08/20/2012 2:57:23 PM PDT by Crucial (Tolerance at the expense of equal treatment is the path to tyranny.)
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To: newzjunkey

Is this before the biden fallout also? Mitt could easily still sweep also


13 posted on 08/20/2012 2:57:35 PM PDT by italianquaker ( 17 percent of the tea partiers support barry obama, the fox poll said so lol)
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To: GlockThe Vote

Dems were +7 in 2008, so +6 today isn’t too much of a stretch.

Romney needs to play like he’s 7 points down.


14 posted on 08/20/2012 3:00:14 PM PDT by Tea Party Terrorist (Your tattoo looks stupid.)
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To: newzjunkey

That jerk will drop out by tomorrow. And it doesn’t trump the economy.
Y.


15 posted on 08/20/2012 3:01:09 PM PDT by jersey117
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To: Tea Party Terrorist

2008 was the high water mark for democrats. No way they turn out +6.

Four years ago remember the speeches the massive rallies on campuses, the hype, the hysteria?

Where I live in NYC and lower Westchester, there is NOTHING.

No stickers, no yard signs, nothing. You would not even know an election were happening here.


16 posted on 08/20/2012 3:03:30 PM PDT by GlockThe Vote (The Obama Adminstration: 2nd wave of attacks on America after 9/11)
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To: GlockThe Vote
The excerpt contradicts the title.

In the presidential contest, registered voters give a slight edge to the incumbent, with 45% saying they intend to support Barack Obama in this year’s election compared to 41% for Mitt Romney. That advantage narrows to 46% – 45% among American voters who are considered the most likely to vote at this time.

17 posted on 08/20/2012 3:05:39 PM PDT by Homer_J_Simpson ("Every nation has the government that it deserves." - Joseph de Maistre (1753-1821))
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To: Homer_J_Simpson

I thought it was just me.


18 posted on 08/20/2012 3:11:34 PM PDT by Cyber Liberty (Obama considers the Third World morally superior to the United States.)
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To: Homer_J_Simpson

Saw that - maybe the mods can change it


19 posted on 08/20/2012 3:12:21 PM PDT by GlockThe Vote (The Obama Adminstration: 2nd wave of attacks on America after 9/11)
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To: Tea Party Terrorist

Only if you forget the 2010 election ever happened.


20 posted on 08/20/2012 3:12:55 PM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" ...you didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
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To: Cyber Liberty

My bad - i looked at it wrong.

I still the oversampling is ridiculous/


21 posted on 08/20/2012 3:13:49 PM PDT by GlockThe Vote (The Obama Adminstration: 2nd wave of attacks on America after 9/11)
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-

(+6% dems added in poll):

47 - Obama
46 - Romney

(no dem advantage):

49 - Romney (+3)
44 - Obama (-3)

- But this is before the idiot “engineer” Todd Akin went on TV to give his medical expert comments on rape, pregnancy, and abortion.

Obama knew Akin would self-destruct - and he did

-


22 posted on 08/20/2012 3:15:44 PM PDT by devolve (-------------------- ------- "...maybe a little blow... line by line -------------)
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To: GlockThe Vote

The more they cook the polls the more motivated the sleeping right will be to go vote.

They had a dead heat in terms of polling for reagan /carter in 1980. And we all know how that turned out...


23 posted on 08/20/2012 3:16:53 PM PDT by GraceG
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To: Shadow44

How long until they break the double digits in oversampling?

The october surprise will be an “Obama Bump” of 10% caused by the oversampling running at +23%


24 posted on 08/20/2012 3:19:25 PM PDT by GraceG
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To: GraceG

Does anyone know if the november Jobs report hits before the election?


25 posted on 08/20/2012 3:21:17 PM PDT by GlockThe Vote (The Obama Adminstration: 2nd wave of attacks on America after 9/11)
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To: GlockThe Vote
Intrade.com had Wonderboy up by 13 only a few days ago, now they've got the messiah up by 15.5.
26 posted on 08/20/2012 3:21:17 PM PDT by treetopsandroofs (Had FDR been GOP, there would have been no World Wars, just "The Great War" and "Roosevelt's Wars".)
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To: treetopsandroofs

Intrade also had obamacare going down by 75% remember?


27 posted on 08/20/2012 3:24:43 PM PDT by GlockThe Vote (The Obama Adminstration: 2nd wave of attacks on America after 9/11)
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To: GraceG
They had a dead heat in terms of polling for reagan /carter in 1980. And we all know how that turned out...

Gallop poll Oct 26th 1980...2 weeks before the election, Carter 47, Reagan 39.

28 posted on 08/20/2012 3:34:15 PM PDT by Stealth Ninja
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To: newzjunkey

You can;t be serious. No one has ever heard of Todd Akin and he’s going to throw the election for Obama? 3-day news cycle and this story is over.


29 posted on 08/20/2012 3:36:13 PM PDT by CityCenter
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To: GlockThe Vote

“Intrade also had obamacare going down by 75% remember?”

Yeah but that would have been good news. :/


30 posted on 08/20/2012 3:39:30 PM PDT by ari-freedom
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To: Tea Party Terrorist

No way they turn out +6.. Not a chance.


31 posted on 08/20/2012 3:44:07 PM PDT by jb729
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To: CityCenter

Yes and I think he will step aside tomorrow.


32 posted on 08/20/2012 3:49:56 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: GlockThe Vote

No, I didn’t, thanks.

Is anyone keeping track of Intrade’s success rate, or is this just a loss-leader propagandist shill for Soros and Hussein’s handlers?


33 posted on 08/20/2012 4:10:34 PM PDT by treetopsandroofs (Had FDR been GOP, there would have been no World Wars, just "The Great War" and "Roosevelt's Wars".)
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To: South40
I just did some research and on average, only 55% of registered voters vote in presidential elections.

interesting stat, I did not realize the number was that low..

34 posted on 08/20/2012 4:20:19 PM PDT by cardinal4 (Do I really need a /s tag?)
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To: GlockThe Vote

quite an oversample bias there especially when over 90% of blacks will still for this idiot even though they have no clue about him and they’e in a much worse state than under Bush


35 posted on 08/20/2012 4:20:31 PM PDT by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: GlockThe Vote

quite an oversample bias there especially when over 90% of blacks will still for this idiot even though they have no clue about him and they’e in a much worse state than under Bush


36 posted on 08/20/2012 4:24:27 PM PDT by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: GlockThe Vote

Yeah, this is really bad news for zero. Using registered and oversampling Dems by 6? This is a 50-45 Romney win.


37 posted on 08/20/2012 4:26:28 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: South40

Democrats will always be “over-represented” when pulling from “registered voters”. Factor in the number of DEAD voters who are registered as Democrats, illegal voters who are registered as Democrats, college students who are registered in two states as Democrats...


38 posted on 08/20/2012 4:29:31 PM PDT by a fool in paradise (Only Obama put a dog on the roof of his mouth. Dogs are friends, not food.)
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To: GlockThe Vote

We still need a Wellstone moment. Without that, victory is not assurable.


39 posted on 08/20/2012 4:30:08 PM PDT by Eleutheria5 (End the occupation. Annex today.)
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To: Tea Party Terrorist

No Dems were not plus 7 in 2008 and the given that the intensity polls are exactly reversed this year arguing that we should be using 2008 models is intellectually absurd.


40 posted on 08/20/2012 4:31:50 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: cardinal4
interesting stat, I did not realize the number was that low..

I don't know if that is good or bad. I've heard that historically, minorities such as blacks and Hispanics don't vote. I don't know if that means they are registered but don't bother or if they just don't register. If getting that 55% up means having more minorities vote and we know they vote democrat that 55% might be a good thing.

41 posted on 08/20/2012 4:32:38 PM PDT by South40 ("Islam has a proud tradition of tolerance." Hussein Obama, Cairo, Egypt, June 4, 2009)
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To: GlockThe Vote

Obama’s made up 47%

vs

Romney’s 4/5ths count at 46%


42 posted on 08/20/2012 4:34:49 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Americans want what Americans always wanted: Better lives for families; little government authority.)
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To: newzjunkey

That Akin fallout is going to have untold reach.. way beyond MO.. if he`s not replaced immediately.


43 posted on 08/20/2012 4:40:51 PM PDT by ScottinVA (If Obama is reelected, America will deserve every mockery that follows.)
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To: GlockThe Vote

November jobs report..

The pre-election Friday is 2 Nov. Generally the BLS waits more than a couple days to release the figures.. If they`re good news for 0bama, they`ll move Heaven and earth to get them out by the 2nd, though.


44 posted on 08/20/2012 4:48:00 PM PDT by ScottinVA (If Obama is reelected, America will deserve every mockery that follows.)
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To: CityCenter

“3-day news cycle and this story is over”

Not with the dems running the media. They, along with the DNC can keep this story alive as long as they find it useful to them.


45 posted on 08/20/2012 4:52:42 PM PDT by ScottinVA (If Obama is reelected, America will deserve every mockery that follows.)
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To: ScottinVA

No currr about about abortion issues except the hard core activists from both sides. Period.
This election is going to be about what it’s always about; the economy. And conservatives are more likely to be values voters anyway. His comment was dumb but a candidate from MO is hardly gonna hurt RR three months from now after all the debates and conventions are done. It’s still gonna be about: the economy.


46 posted on 08/20/2012 4:54:44 PM PDT by snarkytart (http://www.freerepubli224%2C1)
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To: South40

I wonder sometimes if some of these don’t even know they have been registered. Motor voter, etc. it would not surprise me at all to find the Democrat would be the “default” choice..


47 posted on 08/20/2012 5:08:52 PM PDT by cardinal4 (Do I really need a /s tag?)
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To: MNJohnnie; Tea Party Terrorist

“A downturn in the number and percentage of Republican voters going to the polls seemed to be the primary explanation for the lower than predicted turnout,” the report said. Compared to 2004, Republican turnout declined by 1.3 percentage points to 28.7 percent, while Democratic turnout increased by 2.6 points from 28.7 percent in 2004 to 31.3 percent in 2008.

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/2008_voter_turnout_same_as_2004_/


48 posted on 08/20/2012 5:16:40 PM PDT by Raycpa
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To: Shadow44

Let the despicable, deceptive, destructive, and dysfunctional 0bama think he’s ahead.


49 posted on 08/20/2012 5:18:51 PM PDT by GeorgeWashingtonsGhost
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To: cardinal4

Could be. Being registered with a particular party can and will get you barraged with ads and solicitations for contributions. That sounds just like what the dems would do.


50 posted on 08/20/2012 5:27:24 PM PDT by South40 ("Islam has a proud tradition of tolerance." Hussein Obama, Cairo, Egypt, June 4, 2009)
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