Posted on 08/20/2012 2:39:50 PM PDT by GlockThe Vote
In the presidential contest, registered voters give a slight edge to the incumbent, with 45% saying they intend to support Barack Obama in this year’s election compared to 41% for Mitt Romney. That advantage narrows to 46% – 45% among American voters who are considered the most likely to vote at this time. In June, Obama’s lead in the Monmouth University Poll was 46% to 42% among registered voters and 47% to 46% among likely voters. Independent voters are split – 40% for Romney to 37% for Obama. Obama claims 87% support among Democrats and Romney has 87% of the Republican vote.
(Excerpt) Read more at monmouth.edu ...
27% Rep 48% Male 23% 18-34 73% White
33% Dem 52% Female 39% 35-54 10% Black
40% Ind 38% 55+ 11
Obama is in DDDEEEEEP trouble.
Over sampling Democrats by 6 and using registered voters and the best they can do is Obama +1?
A poll of ‘registered voters’ means nothing.
This is before the Todd Akin fallout. Obama can easily still sweep.
Correct - but if its only got obama at 46% w 6% RAT over sample - its no wonder why he is freaking out daily.
How long until they break the double digits in oversampling?
The freak show better drop out or it will an albatross until November.
Don't even be surprised at all if either Romney or Ryan makes a surprise appearance on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart. If that happens, it will be officially all over for President Obama.
Ryan will definately do Stewart.
More crap poles... garbage!
I just did some research and on average, only 55% of registered voters vote in presidential elections.
What does vote fraud add to Obama’s total? I’d say that it cancels out oversampling by probably five points.
Is this before the biden fallout also? Mitt could easily still sweep also
Dems were +7 in 2008, so +6 today isn’t too much of a stretch.
Romney needs to play like he’s 7 points down.
That jerk will drop out by tomorrow. And it doesn’t trump the economy.
Y.
2008 was the high water mark for democrats. No way they turn out +6.
Four years ago remember the speeches the massive rallies on campuses, the hype, the hysteria?
Where I live in NYC and lower Westchester, there is NOTHING.
No stickers, no yard signs, nothing. You would not even know an election were happening here.
In the presidential contest, registered voters give a slight edge to the incumbent, with 45% saying they intend to support Barack Obama in this year’s election compared to 41% for Mitt Romney. That advantage narrows to 46% – 45% among American voters who are considered the most likely to vote at this time.
I thought it was just me.
Saw that - maybe the mods can change it
Only if you forget the 2010 election ever happened.
My bad - i looked at it wrong.
I still the oversampling is ridiculous/
-
(+6% dems added in poll):
47 - Obama
46 - Romney
(no dem advantage):
49 - Romney (+3)
44 - Obama (-3)
- But this is before the idiot “engineer” Todd Akin went on TV to give his medical expert comments on rape, pregnancy, and abortion.
Obama knew Akin would self-destruct - and he did
-
The more they cook the polls the more motivated the sleeping right will be to go vote.
They had a dead heat in terms of polling for reagan /carter in 1980. And we all know how that turned out...
How long until they break the double digits in oversampling?
The october surprise will be an “Obama Bump” of 10% caused by the oversampling running at +23%
Does anyone know if the november Jobs report hits before the election?
Intrade also had obamacare going down by 75% remember?
Gallop poll Oct 26th 1980...2 weeks before the election, Carter 47, Reagan 39.
You can;t be serious. No one has ever heard of Todd Akin and he’s going to throw the election for Obama? 3-day news cycle and this story is over.
“Intrade also had obamacare going down by 75% remember?”
Yeah but that would have been good news. :/
No way they turn out +6.. Not a chance.
Yes and I think he will step aside tomorrow.
No, I didn’t, thanks.
Is anyone keeping track of Intrade’s success rate, or is this just a loss-leader propagandist shill for Soros and Hussein’s handlers?
interesting stat, I did not realize the number was that low..
quite an oversample bias there especially when over 90% of blacks will still for this idiot even though they have no clue about him and they’e in a much worse state than under Bush
quite an oversample bias there especially when over 90% of blacks will still for this idiot even though they have no clue about him and they’e in a much worse state than under Bush
Yeah, this is really bad news for zero. Using registered and oversampling Dems by 6? This is a 50-45 Romney win.
Democrats will always be “over-represented” when pulling from “registered voters”. Factor in the number of DEAD voters who are registered as Democrats, illegal voters who are registered as Democrats, college students who are registered in two states as Democrats...
We still need a Wellstone moment. Without that, victory is not assurable.
No Dems were not plus 7 in 2008 and the given that the intensity polls are exactly reversed this year arguing that we should be using 2008 models is intellectually absurd.
I don't know if that is good or bad. I've heard that historically, minorities such as blacks and Hispanics don't vote. I don't know if that means they are registered but don't bother or if they just don't register. If getting that 55% up means having more minorities vote and we know they vote democrat that 55% might be a good thing.
Obama’s made up 47%
vs
Romney’s 4/5ths count at 46%
That Akin fallout is going to have untold reach.. way beyond MO.. if he`s not replaced immediately.
November jobs report..
The pre-election Friday is 2 Nov. Generally the BLS waits more than a couple days to release the figures.. If they`re good news for 0bama, they`ll move Heaven and earth to get them out by the 2nd, though.
“3-day news cycle and this story is over”
Not with the dems running the media. They, along with the DNC can keep this story alive as long as they find it useful to them.
No currr about about abortion issues except the hard core activists from both sides. Period.
This election is going to be about what it’s always about; the economy. And conservatives are more likely to be values voters anyway. His comment was dumb but a candidate from MO is hardly gonna hurt RR three months from now after all the debates and conventions are done. It’s still gonna be about: the economy.
I wonder sometimes if some of these don’t even know they have been registered. Motor voter, etc. it would not surprise me at all to find the Democrat would be the “default” choice..
“A downturn in the number and percentage of Republican voters going to the polls seemed to be the primary explanation for the lower than predicted turnout,” the report said. Compared to 2004, Republican turnout declined by 1.3 percentage points to 28.7 percent, while Democratic turnout increased by 2.6 points from 28.7 percent in 2004 to 31.3 percent in 2008.
http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/2008_voter_turnout_same_as_2004_/
Let the despicable, deceptive, destructive, and dysfunctional 0bama think he’s ahead.
Could be. Being registered with a particular party can and will get you barraged with ads and solicitations for contributions. That sounds just like what the dems would do.
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