Posted on 08/20/2012 2:39:50 PM PDT by GlockThe Vote
In the presidential contest, registered voters give a slight edge to the incumbent, with 45% saying they intend to support Barack Obama in this year’s election compared to 41% for Mitt Romney. That advantage narrows to 46% – 45% among American voters who are considered the most likely to vote at this time. In June, Obama’s lead in the Monmouth University Poll was 46% to 42% among registered voters and 47% to 46% among likely voters. Independent voters are split – 40% for Romney to 37% for Obama. Obama claims 87% support among Democrats and Romney has 87% of the Republican vote.
(Excerpt) Read more at monmouth.edu ...
My bad - i looked at it wrong.
I still the oversampling is ridiculous/
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(+6% dems added in poll):
47 - Obama
46 - Romney
(no dem advantage):
49 - Romney (+3)
44 - Obama (-3)
- But this is before the idiot “engineer” Todd Akin went on TV to give his medical expert comments on rape, pregnancy, and abortion.
Obama knew Akin would self-destruct - and he did
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The more they cook the polls the more motivated the sleeping right will be to go vote.
They had a dead heat in terms of polling for reagan /carter in 1980. And we all know how that turned out...
How long until they break the double digits in oversampling?
The october surprise will be an “Obama Bump” of 10% caused by the oversampling running at +23%
Does anyone know if the november Jobs report hits before the election?
Intrade also had obamacare going down by 75% remember?
Gallop poll Oct 26th 1980...2 weeks before the election, Carter 47, Reagan 39.
You can;t be serious. No one has ever heard of Todd Akin and he’s going to throw the election for Obama? 3-day news cycle and this story is over.
“Intrade also had obamacare going down by 75% remember?”
Yeah but that would have been good news. :/
No way they turn out +6.. Not a chance.
Yes and I think he will step aside tomorrow.
No, I didn’t, thanks.
Is anyone keeping track of Intrade’s success rate, or is this just a loss-leader propagandist shill for Soros and Hussein’s handlers?
interesting stat, I did not realize the number was that low..
quite an oversample bias there especially when over 90% of blacks will still for this idiot even though they have no clue about him and they’e in a much worse state than under Bush
quite an oversample bias there especially when over 90% of blacks will still for this idiot even though they have no clue about him and they’e in a much worse state than under Bush
Yeah, this is really bad news for zero. Using registered and oversampling Dems by 6? This is a 50-45 Romney win.
Democrats will always be “over-represented” when pulling from “registered voters”. Factor in the number of DEAD voters who are registered as Democrats, illegal voters who are registered as Democrats, college students who are registered in two states as Democrats...
We still need a Wellstone moment. Without that, victory is not assurable.
No Dems were not plus 7 in 2008 and the given that the intensity polls are exactly reversed this year arguing that we should be using 2008 models is intellectually absurd.
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