Skip to comments.Shock poll: Obama could lose Illinois, Romney leads in Chicago suburbs
Posted on 08/20/2012 9:37:36 PM PDT by JerseyanExile
President Barack Obama could lose his home state of Illinois in November, a new poll shows.
A poll conducted by Illinois-based pollster and political strategist Michael McKeon found Obama leading Republican Mitt Romney by 49 percent to 37 percent in Cook County, the home of Chicago. That puts him ahead by a far thinner margin than expected in a county he should be winning handsomely.
Cook is the most Democratic leaning county in the state. It is also the most populous.
Those numbers do not bode well for the president.
He has to come out of Cook County with a big lead or hes gonna have problems downstate, explained McKeon, who said that based on the numbers he had seen, Obama polled only in the forties in downstate Illinois.
Its not like his policies are very popular downstate, McKeon said. Hes viewed as more part of Chicago than he is part of Illinois.
According to the poll, which surveyed 629 registered voters last week, Obamas problems are not in Chicago proper, but in suburban Cook County.
In the city of Chicago itself, he retains a 60-29 lead over Romney. But the Republican challenger leads 45-38 in the surrounding areas. Across the county as a whole, Romney leads 43-31 among independent voters, a crucial voting bloc. Romney also holds a 44-38 lead among male voters, and a 53-40 lead among white voters.
Illinois is not considered a swing state by any means; it is seen as solidly blue, and has been for the past two election cycles. But McKeon pointed to the 2010 gubernatorial race when Republican Bill Brady came within a single percentage point of now-Gov. Pat Quinn because Brady won most of the downstate counties. That is a feat Romney could repeat this year, leaving Obama vulnerable if he cannot expand his lead in Cook County.
I say we run with it!
This poll means nothing because it was a poll of LIVE voters and did not poll DEAD voters. In Illinois all the DEAD vote Democrat and in Illinois a LOT of dead vote.
That’s true. My mom died in ‘08 before the election, but I’m sure she (as a die-hard dem) voted anyway. I can’t imagine Obama losing Chicago.
Correction: I mean Illinois.. He’ll surely win Chicago.
I think it will hinge largely on voter turnout, but there are a lot of folks here in IL who are FED UP with the RAT state politicians who run everything, tired of the corruption and being the joke of the nation (aside from Biden), and who feel double-burned from the way Obama has failed.
That's the way it always is, that's why city people suck. Virtually all cities are by, for and of RATs.
Gee, from his vacations, I thought his home state was Hawaii./s Seriously, has he ever been BACK to Illinois since his inauguration?
Cook County cemeteries are the Dem stronghold, however, delivering the vote every time.
Cities are the economic generators of the nation, they are also the source of culture. Without cities there is no civilization (the word itself is derived from “city”). Once the GOP figures out how to capture the city vote the Democrat Party is finished.
The world dances to the tune of cities, like it or not.
You’re number three.
Even Ed Morrissey blogged about this article:
I think Obama will take Illinois. Winning Cook county by a large margin pretty much gives you the state as long as you stay close in all the other counties.
Well, since the GOP has been steadily turning into pseudo-democrats I'd say their isn't that much to hope for.
I think Romney can take New Jersey, Connecticut, New Hampshire, & Michigan. Illinois is a little bit of a stretch considering all the people that were murdered in Chicago this year will still be voting in Nov.
Parties who ignore large segments of the population in a democratic republic cannot survive.
But the basic problem we face is voting by those who do not pay taxes. From day one the Democrat Party understood it could buy votes by performing small favors for the voters. Once that price is paid the voter belongs to the Party. This is how Democrats control the cities.
There are millions of people in the cities who cannot be bought in that way.
If this were even remotely possible, it would certainly be a man the lifeboats event to the Obama team.
Correct, Republicans in Cook County become reliable democrat voters after they die.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.