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Shock poll: Obama could lose Illinois, Romney leads in Chicago suburbs
Daily Caller ^ | August 20, 2012 | Alexis Levinson

Posted on 08/20/2012 9:37:36 PM PDT by JerseyanExile

President Barack Obama could lose his home state of Illinois in November, a new poll shows.

A poll conducted by Illinois-based pollster and political strategist Michael McKeon found Obama leading Republican Mitt Romney by 49 percent to 37 percent in Cook County, the home of Chicago. That puts him ahead by a far thinner margin than expected in a county he should be winning handsomely.

Cook is the most Democratic leaning county in the state. It is also the most populous.

Those numbers do not bode well for the president.

“He has to come out of Cook County with a big lead or he’s gonna have problems downstate,” explained McKeon, who said that based on the numbers he had seen, Obama polled only in the forties in downstate Illinois.

“It’s not like his policies are very popular downstate,” McKeon said. “He’s viewed as more part of Chicago than he is part of Illinois.”

According to the poll, which surveyed 629 registered voters last week, Obama’s problems are not in Chicago proper, but in suburban Cook County.

In the city of Chicago itself, he retains a 60-29 lead over Romney. But the Republican challenger leads 45-38 in the surrounding areas. Across the county as a whole, Romney leads 43-31 among independent voters, a crucial voting bloc. Romney also holds a 44-38 lead among male voters, and a 53-40 lead among white voters.

Illinois is not considered a swing state by any means; it is seen as solidly blue, and has been for the past two election cycles. But McKeon pointed to the 2010 gubernatorial race when Republican Bill Brady came within a single percentage point of now-Gov. Pat Quinn because Brady won most of the downstate counties. That is a feat Romney could repeat this year, leaving Obama vulnerable if he cannot expand his lead in Cook County.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Illinois
KEYWORDS: 2012election; 2012polls; chicago; election2012; il2012; illinois; kenyanbornmuzzie; mittromney
This a very long shot, and there isn't much in the way of other polls that might support this assertion. But even so, could be worth keeping an eye on.
1 posted on 08/20/2012 9:37:45 PM PDT by JerseyanExile
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To: JerseyanExile

I say we run with it!


2 posted on 08/20/2012 9:41:16 PM PDT by mylife (The Roar Of The Masses Could Be Farts)
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To: JerseyanExile

This poll means nothing because it was a poll of LIVE voters and did not poll DEAD voters. In Illinois all the DEAD vote Democrat and in Illinois a LOT of dead vote.


3 posted on 08/20/2012 9:44:14 PM PDT by Biblebelter
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To: Biblebelter

That’s true. My mom died in ‘08 before the election, but I’m sure she (as a die-hard dem) voted anyway. I can’t imagine Obama losing Chicago.


4 posted on 08/20/2012 9:47:25 PM PDT by mlizzy (And if we accept that a mother can kill even her own child, how can we tell others not to kill? --MT)
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To: JerseyanExile
It's going to be cities vs. the rest of the country.

2000

2004

2004

2008

5 posted on 08/20/2012 9:48:54 PM PDT by P.O.E. (Pray for America)
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To: mlizzy

Correction: I mean Illinois.. He’ll surely win Chicago.


6 posted on 08/20/2012 9:49:18 PM PDT by mlizzy (And if we accept that a mother can kill even her own child, how can we tell others not to kill? --MT)
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To: JerseyanExile

I think it will hinge largely on voter turnout, but there are a lot of folks here in IL who are FED UP with the RAT state politicians who run everything, tired of the corruption and being the joke of the nation (aside from Biden), and who feel double-burned from the way Obama has failed.


7 posted on 08/20/2012 9:49:44 PM PDT by bigbob
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To: P.O.E.
It's going to be cities vs. the rest of the country.

That's the way it always is, that's why city people suck. Virtually all cities are by, for and of RATs.

8 posted on 08/20/2012 9:53:26 PM PDT by ROCKLOBSTER (Celebrate Republicans Freed the Slaves Month.)
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To: JerseyanExile

Gee, from his vacations, I thought his home state was Hawaii./s Seriously, has he ever been BACK to Illinois since his inauguration?


9 posted on 08/20/2012 9:57:00 PM PDT by tanuki (Left-wing Revolution: show biz for boring people.)
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To: JerseyanExile

Cook County cemeteries are the Dem stronghold, however, delivering the vote every time.


10 posted on 08/20/2012 9:57:26 PM PDT by lurk
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To: ROCKLOBSTER

Cities are the economic generators of the nation, they are also the source of culture. Without cities there is no civilization (the word itself is derived from “city”). Once the GOP figures out how to capture the city vote the Democrat Party is finished.

The world dances to the tune of cities, like it or not.


11 posted on 08/20/2012 10:00:41 PM PDT by arrogantsob (Obama MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: JerseyanExile

Congrats!!

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2920914/posts

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2920614/posts

You’re number three.

Even Ed Morrissey blogged about this article:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2920741/posts


12 posted on 08/20/2012 10:02:06 PM PDT by upchuck ("Definition of 'racist:' someone that is winning an argument with a liberal." ~ Peter Brimelow)
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To: JerseyanExile

Forget the polls, Boss, I'm counting the votes

13 posted on 08/20/2012 10:02:16 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: JerseyanExile

I think Obama will take Illinois. Winning Cook county by a large margin pretty much gives you the state as long as you stay close in all the other counties.


14 posted on 08/20/2012 10:08:22 PM PDT by barmag25
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To: arrogantsob
Once the GOP figures out how to capture the city vote the Democrat Party is finished.

Well, since the GOP has been steadily turning into pseudo-democrats I'd say their isn't that much to hope for.

15 posted on 08/20/2012 10:09:22 PM PDT by Bullish (Liars aren't always thieves but thieves are ALWAYS liars)
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To: JerseyanExile

I think Romney can take New Jersey, Connecticut, New Hampshire, & Michigan. Illinois is a little bit of a stretch considering all the people that were murdered in Chicago this year will still be voting in Nov.


16 posted on 08/20/2012 10:11:18 PM PDT by barmag25
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To: Bullish

Parties who ignore large segments of the population in a democratic republic cannot survive.

But the basic problem we face is voting by those who do not pay taxes. From day one the Democrat Party understood it could buy votes by performing small favors for the voters. Once that price is paid the voter belongs to the Party. This is how Democrats control the cities.

There are millions of people in the cities who cannot be bought in that way.


17 posted on 08/20/2012 10:18:16 PM PDT by arrogantsob (Obama MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: JerseyanExile

If this were even remotely possible, it would certainly be a man the lifeboats event to the Obama team.


18 posted on 08/20/2012 10:26:11 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Americans want what Americans always wanted: Better lives for families; little government authority.)
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To: lurk

Correct, Republicans in Cook County become reliable democrat voters after they die.


19 posted on 08/20/2012 10:33:31 PM PDT by entropy12 (Hate is the most insidious emotion, it will grow cancer in your body.)
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To: entropy12

OUST THE MARXIST S.O.B.

LESS THAN $6.1K TO GO!!!

20 posted on 08/20/2012 11:26:18 PM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: entropy12

My apology, dear entropy12. I meant to post to “FReepers” and I didn’t catch my error in time.


21 posted on 08/20/2012 11:28:36 PM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: P.O.E.

And in DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES, I am going to vote REPUBLICAN!


22 posted on 08/21/2012 12:24:21 AM PDT by wayne_shrugged
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To: P.O.E.

*bump* red/blue voting map


23 posted on 08/21/2012 12:58:12 AM PDT by Taffini ( Mr. Pippen and Mr. Waffles do not approve and neither do I)
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To: JerseyanExile

All these numbers read like internals from an overall poll. What`s the statewide 0bama vs. Romney total?


24 posted on 08/21/2012 2:59:34 AM PDT by ScottinVA (If Obama is reelected, America will deserve every mockery that follows.)
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To: arrogantsob
Cities are the economic generators of the nation

No, businesses and the people who build them are...no matter where they locate. Cities suck additional resources out of business.

they are also the source of culture.

The culture comes from the people, no matter where they live. Food, music, other forms of self-entertainment are regional.

As far as the snotty city-based "high brow culture"...opera, theater, art and croissants, Maplethorp etc (not to mention Rap, Pimps and Hos)...I'm absolutely afecogenic! Wouldn't cross the street to see it if it was free.

Without cities there is no civilization

Yeah right! The civilization moved Westward to get away from the disgusting sewers of the East.

"civilization" the word itself is derived from “city”.

Not so much, but the word "community" does come from "commune" as does the repugnant term "Communism". Karl Marx spoke extensively of the "insanity of rural living."

Cities used to have walls for public safety, but they outlived their usefulness when the savages stopped storming the gates. Now they are just a swarming nest of dependent parasites living off the revenue confiscated from producers.

Once the GOP figures out how to capture the city vote the Democrat Party is finished.

That will never happen, because Communists don't vote Republican. The big-city government/labor unions/mafia, the colleges and the communisty organizers will continue to see to that.

25 posted on 08/21/2012 5:46:50 AM PDT by ROCKLOBSTER (Celebrate Republicans Freed the Slaves Month.)
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To: JerseyanExile

I wonder what their internals are the 0 campaign that is, polls lIke this probably keep him up at night. Like my tagline says Obama is a fake Chicagoan, a transplant, nobody knew anything about this guy. I live by the city I haven’t seen many zero stickers, but I have to say this is, I still think e wins IL. But polls like this are interesting food for thought.


26 posted on 08/21/2012 5:55:15 AM PDT by erod (This Chicagoan will crawl over broken glass to vote the fake Chicagoan Obama out!)
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To: ROCKLOBSTER

Those “people” are gathered in cities more and more across the globe as agriculture uses less and less labor to produce more and more. This is the trend of history with periods of economic collapse and Dark Ages being the exceptions. In those Dark Ages cities collapse and wither, culture declines to primitive levels of illiteracy and the economies disappear becoming subsistence.

Ignorance is no claim to virtue. Those who have no heard great music played by great orchestras have a gap in their lives whether they know it or not. Experiencing a piece by Bach, Mozart or Beethoven performed by great musicians is something one often remembers their entire life. Seeing a Shakespeare play transformed my elder son’s entire life. And his plays were hardly “high-brow” but all played before the common people who would express their displeasure or approval very vociferously. The same is true of Italian opera. Bach’s music was written for the Church and performed before the commons as well. So was much of Vivaldi’s, Corelli’s, and many of the great composers.

You obviously know little history. World or U.S.

The word Civilization is derived from city. There have NEVER great any great societies which did not have a great city or cities at their center.

Most of the troublesome, dependent classes have come to the city from rural areas. Those with deep roots in the city are much less likely to be Welfare class.

Unfortunately for your claim of urban parasitism it is a FACT that the Blue states are net PAYERS of federal taxes while Red states are net RECEIVERS of federal taxes. So who are the parasites?

Millions of votes are given to Republican candidates by people who live in big cities. More votes were given to McCain in Chicago than were given in whole states. If the rural south would keep their Black population at home rather than sending them to the Northern cities there would be much more Republican success there.


27 posted on 08/21/2012 1:43:41 PM PDT by arrogantsob (Obama MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: arrogantsob
In those Dark Ages cities collapse and wither, culture declines to primitive levels of illiteracy and the economies disappear becoming subsistence.

Sounds familiar...and contemporary. We should have learned from history. Can you say "Detroit"?

Ignorance is no claim to virtue.

Boy, I'll say!

Those who have no heard great music played by great orchestras have a gap in their lives whether they know it or not. great musicians...entire life...Shakespeare...Italian opera..

Yeah, you know I don't believe I've ever heard a note of music nor seen any sodomite gaiety actors in my life.

Bach’s music was written for the Church

Sounds like more of a reason to be promoting the Church than some scumhole city.

You obviously know little history. World or U.S.

Looks like history tells us that cities tend to collapse into disrepair and debauchery.

The word Civilization is derived from city.

Wow, it sure looks like they added a whole lot of letters.

There have NEVER great any great societies which did not have a great city or cities at their center.

Well, the USA is the greatest society in history, what city do you attribute that greatness to...NYC, Filthydelphia, Criminal Chicago, Murder City, San Fran Sicko?

Most of the troublesome, dependent classes have come to the city from rural areas.

Yeah, we're sure glad we got all those murdering ghettoRAT gangbangers out of the wheatfields of the Midwest.

Unfortunately for your claim of urban parasitism it is a FACT that the Blue states are net PAYERS of federal taxes while Red states are net RECEIVERS of federal taxes. So who are the parasites?

BureaucRATic fatcats, government workers, and their cronies.

Millions of votes are given to Republican candidates by people who live in big cities.

They should get out now while they still can, before the terrorists blow them up and the race wars start. I tend to determine my "where I wouldn't be caught dead" actions based on the murder rate per hundred thousand. Care to defend those stats?

28 posted on 08/21/2012 3:37:42 PM PDT by ROCKLOBSTER (Celebrate Republicans Freed the Slaves Month.)
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To: ROCKLOBSTER
My neighborhood in Chicago probably has a lower crime rate than the town you live in. Rather than cowering in fear I can take a stroll at any hour day or night without feeling the slightest fear. Next home game I will stroll into Soldiers Field without fear or go to the Chicago Symphony (the world's greatest band, btw) without fear or eat in the best eateries in the world without fear.

I feel sorry for those who think the whole world is out to get them and have to hunker down with their delusions.

But to further your education I will say that you missed the point civilizations do not collapse into Dark Ages because of internal rot within their great cities. Carrol Quigley in “The Evolution of Civilization” examines in some detail the civilizations leading up to Western Civilization.
They collapsed because of foreign invasion of generally more primitive peoples, generally from the North or mountain areas. The cities withered because the international trade they were built upon collapsed. So a city which was dependent upon making vases for the international wine trade got smashed when wine could no longer be imported because pirates controlled the trade routes. Cities trade goods and culture for food. When they could no longer protect their food-growing countryside they were doomed.

The rural areas and countryside are auxiliaries of the great cities which are massive generators of economic growth. Initially, the realization of this incredible growth caused people to think that cities were the work of a God. City-states of Mesopotamia were organized around a shrine to a specific God and the success or failure of the city was linked to that God.

Adam Smith showed how the Division of Labor makes mass production and cheaper goods possible. It is in the city that this process is greatest extended. There are more professions in Chicago than workers in many towns. Things start in the cities because there is more chance for experimentation and so many more services one can call on. This lowers the capital costs of innovation and provides an instant market feedback mechanism because there are so many more potential consumers.

If you are interested in the true nature of the city there are some good books with would be of interest. “The Life and Death of Great American Cities”, “Cities and the Wealth of Nations”, and “The Economics of Cities” all by Jane Jacobs.

Believe me you have seen plenty of gay and/or Sodomite actors.

Bach lived in a German city, one that was big enough to support him and boast a church big enough to supply his singers and musicians. And the city would have been able to supply someone to repair his organ should it have a problem. Someone who did not have to travel a day or more to get to it.

The way things work is that the cities you raised dominate a hinterland surrounding them. So Chicago basically controls the Midwest, NY-NY state region, Philadelphia-Pennsylvania, SF-N. California, LA- S. California. There are overlaps and conflicts at times but that is the general idea.

Personally I feel under the sway of Chicago in a small South Arkansas town and was pulled into it from there.

And, “yes”, one of the reasons the US is great is because it has had great cities.

You earlier mentioned Marx but I think he spoke of the “idiocy” of rural life not the “insanity” thereof.

Well at least the Blue states are paying the lion's share of that which goes to the parasites and social security recipients so you can't feel too bad.

29 posted on 08/21/2012 4:15:27 PM PDT by arrogantsob (Obama MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: arrogantsob
My neighborhood in Chicago probably has a lower crime rate than the town you live in.

I wouldn't be surprised if Chicago has more murders over any given weekend than Maine has in an entire year.

Believe me you have seen plenty of gay and/or Sodomite actors.

Boy you're telling me. (that part of my original post was sarcasm since you didn't figure it out)

You earlier mentioned Marx but I think he spoke of the “idiocy” of rural life not the “insanity” thereof.

Yes, I totally disagree with him about everything. You?

Well at least the Blue states are paying the lion's share of that which goes to the parasites and social security recipients so you can't feel too bad.

Yes thank you, keep up the good work. I will admit to driving on public roads, but then again I do pay gas tax.

Now, about those murder rates.

30 posted on 08/21/2012 4:58:23 PM PDT by ROCKLOBSTER (Celebrate Republicans Freed the Slaves Month.)
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To: ROCKLOBSTER

Chicago’s murder rate has actually dropped over the near 50 yrs I have been here. These are concentrated (probably about 90%) in a few areas were the gangs war over territory. Mostly the non-criminal areas are not affected.

However, the interesting part is that cities today at their worst are not as violent as cities of the past. Chicago’s current rate is about one per 10 thousand per year. Maine probably has as many shot by moose hunters. The Ultra Violent city is just a media myth for the most part.

I disagree with Marx’s economic theory and his class war explanation of historical events. I don’t know much about his other writings some of which are in the field of political philosophy.


31 posted on 08/21/2012 9:03:10 PM PDT by arrogantsob (Obama MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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