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NBC/WSJ poll: Heading into conventions, Obama has four-point lead (48 to 44)
http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/21/13399788-nbcwsj-poll-heading-into-conventions-obama-has-four-point-lead?lite ^ | 08/21/2012 | Mark Murray, NBC News Senior Political Editor

Posted on 08/21/2012 4:23:14 PM PDT by CaptainK

After Mitt Romney selected his vice presidential running mate, and just days before the political conventions kick off next week, President Barack Obama maintains his advantage in the race for the White House, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

A Democratic ticket featuring Obama and Vice President Joe Biden gets support from 48 percent of registered voters, and a Republican ticket of Romney and new running mate Paul Ryan gets 44 percent.

These numbers are only slightly changed from July, when Obama led Romney by six points in the survey, 49 percent to 43 percent, suggesting a minimal bounce for Romney (if at all) after this month’s Ryan pick.

(Excerpt) Read more at firstread.nbcnews.com ...


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; akin; firstreadnbcnewscom; notbreakingnews; sourcetitlenoturl
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From the WSJ/NBC poll

This month's sample Obama 48 to Mitt 44 45D/39R/13I

Last month's poll had Obama at 49 to Mitt 43 46D/35R/16I

2008 exit polls 39D/32R/29I

1 posted on 08/21/2012 4:23:22 PM PDT by CaptainK
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To: CaptainK

Another poll that oversamples Democrats by more than 5 points....nothing to see here folks.


2 posted on 08/21/2012 4:25:54 PM PDT by PhxTM06
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To: CaptainK
Not only oversampling Dems by 6 points, but it is registered voters only. They are trying to sway voters with these skewed polls.I am getting fed up.
3 posted on 08/21/2012 4:26:44 PM PDT by originalbuckeye
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To: CaptainK

A big part of that popular vote lead is in states like Massachusetts and California?


4 posted on 08/21/2012 4:26:49 PM PDT by BenLurkin (This is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion or satire; or both)
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To: CaptainK

Hard to believe that many people cannot see through this incompetent dose of puke.

Being black is obviously better than a license to steal.


5 posted on 08/21/2012 4:27:04 PM PDT by Venturer
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To: CaptainK
These numbers are only slightly changed from July, when Obama led Romney by six points in the survey, 49 percent to 43 percent, suggesting a minimal bounce for Romney (if at all) after this month’s Ryan pick.

And the Dems were oversampled by what +9% or was that +13%? And as I recall they even oversampled Independents in that July PSMNBC poll.

6 posted on 08/21/2012 4:27:37 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: CaptainK

Registered voter polls are semi-worthless.


7 posted on 08/21/2012 4:27:37 PM PDT by Hugin ("Most times a man'll tell you his bad intentions, if you listen and let yourself hear."---Open Range)
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To: CaptainK

Someone in WSJ cubicle #1 - tap your colleague on the shoulder in cubicle #2 and ask why your employer is still involved in polling with NBC of all places.


8 posted on 08/21/2012 4:27:52 PM PDT by relictele
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To: CaptainK

Registered voter poll.


9 posted on 08/21/2012 4:28:07 PM PDT by colorado tanker
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To: FReepers; Patriots
Hey Obama,


Please Donate!


10 posted on 08/21/2012 4:28:34 PM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: CaptainK

4 points? Good thing his Bin laden raid propaganda movie is coming out..(s/)


11 posted on 08/21/2012 4:28:55 PM PDT by max americana (Make the world a better place by punching a liberal in the face)
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To: Red Steel

And, anyway, it’s the ELECTORAL vote, stupid.

The fascists are pulling out all the stops, aren’t they?


12 posted on 08/21/2012 4:29:56 PM PDT by Walrus (Restoring America starts today! Let's roll!)
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To: PhxTM06

They oversampled 6 points for the Dems this month.
Better than the 11 points from last month.


13 posted on 08/21/2012 4:30:05 PM PDT by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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To: originalbuckeye
there ARE more democrats in this country than pubs....they should be over sampled...

this is serious folks....

unless we get the full conservative/republican/Christian/patriot/freeper vote, bamey will win the dictatorship.....and those of us trying to unseat him will not be very happy....

14 posted on 08/21/2012 4:30:29 PM PDT by cherry
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To: CaptainK
From the WSJ/NBC poll...

I've never understood the synergy between NBC and Wall Street Journal. NBC is a extreme left, highly partisan outfit. While Murdoch's print holdings aren't truly Conservative, they are on the right side of many issues whereas NBC is nearly always wrong (Rich Santelli of CNBC being a rare exception).

From a strictly business standpoint, it would seem that the WSJ ought to partner with its corporate cousin, Fox News. If nothing else, having the "WSJ/NBC" emblem side-by-side hurts the reputation of the Wall Street Journal.

All IMHO (and as a onetime News Corp. stockholder from long, long ago).

15 posted on 08/21/2012 4:30:41 PM PDT by re_nortex (DP...that's what I like about Texas.)
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To: CaptainK

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/August_NBC-WSJ_Int_Sched.pdf

Go to the end to check out their lousy sampling


16 posted on 08/21/2012 4:31:01 PM PDT by Snickering Hound
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To: CaptainK
I don't believe NBC.

I'm waiting for the MSNBC polls to get a more accurate idea as to what the country is thinking.

17 posted on 08/21/2012 4:33:55 PM PDT by EGPWS (Trust in God, question everyone else)
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To: CaptainK
24% Strong Democrat

10% Not very strong Democrat

11% Independent/lean Democrat

13% Strictly Independent

12% Independent/lean Republican

9% Not very strong Republican

18% Strong Republican

3% Other

1% Not sure

This says it all. 6% more strong Democrats than strong Republicans amounts to a 4 pt lead? All things being equal (which they never are in these polls) I would expect a 6 point lead by BHO. I would love to know why they can't just do 50/50.

18 posted on 08/21/2012 4:37:56 PM PDT by thepatriot1 (...brought to you courtesy of the Red, White and Blue)
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To: CaptainK

Ras has Romney back up by 1. In a two-week period, Romney went from +5 in Ras to -1 now back to +1, so something hit Rasmussen’s polling that really had an impact on Romney. Anyway, he appears to have ridden it out.


19 posted on 08/21/2012 4:42:22 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: originalbuckeye

-

So it is:

47 Romney

45 Obama

no 6 points extra for democrats

Expect some nasty stuff soon

-


20 posted on 08/21/2012 4:51:39 PM PDT by devolve (------------------- ammo bans or limits? - Lee Harvey Oswald only needed 2 or 3 cartridges ---------)
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To: CaptainK

In the event Obama is re-elected, his State of the Union Speech will begin with:

“Comrades, in 2008 we were standing on an edge of deep abyss. Since then, we’ve taken a significant step forward...”


21 posted on 08/21/2012 4:58:19 PM PDT by OrioleFan (Republicans believe every day is July 4th, Democrats believe every day is April 15th.)
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To: CaptainK

NBC’s sample of 45-D 39-R and 16-I is absurd.


22 posted on 08/21/2012 5:00:26 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: CaptainK

I’m nothing but an anecdote, but every time a pollster calls me I hang up. I think a lot of R’s hang up. It will be a landslide.


23 posted on 08/21/2012 5:02:37 PM PDT by CincyRichieRich (Keep your head up and keep moving forward!)
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To: LS

I think what hit Romney, was the realization by a segment of the population that Ryan was not the nominee...so, in comparison to Ryan, Romney looked bad, causing a short-term dip....however, this was not reflected in Gallup so who knows....


24 posted on 08/21/2012 5:03:29 PM PDT by usafa92
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To: CaptainK

The +6 gap isn’t bad enough.. Indepedants are strongly under represented in this by more than 15%!

Independents were 29% in 2012! They went 52-44 for Obama over McCain. Independents are overwhelmingly breaking for Romney this time. This is where they are hiding Romney votes! They are covering up the independents.


25 posted on 08/21/2012 5:04:58 PM PDT by jb729
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To: CaptainK

Look at Independents! 13% Indepedents? Independents are always around 30% of the vote! That’s where they are hiding Romney votes.

I’ll give them a 6% Dem advantage, they would still lose with the way Indies are breaking against Obama!


26 posted on 08/21/2012 5:06:43 PM PDT by jb729
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To: LS

Could have been just a 1 or 2 day bad sample. Every outfit is showing Romney gains in state polling.


27 posted on 08/21/2012 5:08:46 PM PDT by jb729
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To: CaptainK

NBC/WSJ is the preferred “media” outlet for most potheads and drug addicts. The communist party USA loves it.


28 posted on 08/21/2012 5:18:35 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Had enough of the freaks running the show yet?)
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To: Venturer

Makes me wonder if the country is worth saving sometimes. If half the people in it still support Obama,Maybe the center of the country does need to secede, and Leave the nation of New Somalia to their utopia..


29 posted on 08/21/2012 5:20:15 PM PDT by Quickgun (Second Amendment. The only one you can put your hands on.)
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To: jb729

Just subjected to another phone poll - prerecorded questions and keypad choices. What fun - now strongly supporting Romney and Mandel (Ohio Senate) - keyed in as voting for Obama last election, stongly disapproving of his handling of economy and Obamacare - but most fun with selecting demographics - opposites on everything.


30 posted on 08/21/2012 5:23:16 PM PDT by LibertyOh
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To: jb729

all this cr*p gives ‘em sumthin’ to sell


31 posted on 08/21/2012 5:27:14 PM PDT by stickywillie (a corrupt parallel universe exists beside our wonderful Constitution)
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To: jb729

all this cr*p gives ‘em sumthin’ to sell


32 posted on 08/21/2012 5:27:26 PM PDT by stickywillie (a corrupt parallel universe exists beside our wonderful Constitution)
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To: FlingWingFlyer

O’Reilly said on Glen Beck’s radio show, that if the election was held tomorrow, Romney would win, he has a secure hold on more than the 279 electoral votes that are needed. He said that this information comes from the internal polling of both campaigns and that is the reason that the Democrats are pulling out all the stops.

Then I just got an email from MoveOn.Org, saying that the NBC poll shows Obama with a very slight lead, but that he could still lose, (and this is the funny part) because the Romney camp plans to disenfranchise a lot of voters.

O’Reilly also said that the MSM plans to unleash a torrent of attacks on Romney and Ryan this week, during the convention and following on into the election.


33 posted on 08/21/2012 5:28:33 PM PDT by Eva (Eee)
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To: originalbuckeye

Just got my notice from the WSJ that my renewal is up soon.

$450 for a one year subscription.

It will get canceled.

I am sick of the BS, too.


34 posted on 08/21/2012 5:31:08 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: Eva

Hopefully, decent Americans will remember what the Chicago scumbags did to the Palin family in 2008 and decide not to let them get away with that again.


35 posted on 08/21/2012 5:31:34 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Had enough of the freaks running the show yet?)
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To: originalbuckeye
They are trying to sway voters with these skewed polls. I am getting fed up.

You expected something else from the Ministry of Propaganda?

36 posted on 08/21/2012 5:43:59 PM PDT by Charles Martel (Endeavor to persevere...)
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To: CaptainK
People aren't going to vote by the phony numbers they're being fed. Not this time. They aren't going to care what someone says the actual unemployment number is.

This time around, it's going to come down to whether or not they have a job, is it a good job, a full-time job, with benefits, or how long has it been since they've had one of those. It will be how much it cost to put gas in the tank to get to the polls, and releasing the reserves won't do a thing, except for a momentary blip.

Feeling the mood out there. They may not be warm to Romney yet (and they are warming), but they are definitely sour on Obama.

I have over 900 facebook "friends", many of whom are mostly strangers who play the same couple games that I do. I see the stuff they post and repost. It's about 6:1:1 for Conservative values: pro-Obama values: Ron Paul in my news feed. Unscientific, for sure, but a good sign.

37 posted on 08/21/2012 5:48:36 PM PDT by Tanniker Smith (Rome didn't fall in a day, either.)
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To: CaptainK

Way oversampled Dems.... LOL in fact it’s so bad that Obama getting 48 percent to Romney 44 percent means either Democrats are voting for Romney or almost all self proclaimed independents are voting for Romney according to their own poll who how do they spin this crap....

Strong Democrat 24
Not very strong Democrat 10
Independent/lean Democrat 11
Strictly Independent ..... 13
Independent/lean Republican 12
Not very strong Republican 9
Strong Republican ........ 18
Other (VOL) .............. 3
Not sure................. 1


38 posted on 08/21/2012 5:49:19 PM PDT by Typical_Whitey (The political mirage of something for nothing; has ruined many a nation.)
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To: CaptainK

Way oversampled Dems.... LOL in fact it’s so bad that Obama getting 48 percent to Romney 44 percent means either Democrats are voting for Romney or almost all self proclaimed independents are voting for Romney according to their own poll who how do they spin this crap....

Strong Democrat 24
Not very strong Democrat 10
Independent/lean Democrat 11
Strictly Independent ..... 13
Independent/lean Republican 12
Not very strong Republican 9
Strong Republican ........ 18
Other (VOL) .............. 3
Not sure................. 1


39 posted on 08/21/2012 5:49:29 PM PDT by Typical_Whitey (The political mirage of something for nothing; has ruined many a nation.)
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To: PhxTM06
We have a trendline going with this particular type of polling. It looks like NO CHANGE SINCE APRIL.

So, you guys think about that and forget what you are calling the "oversample".

In these polls they select their sample universe AFTER they call their 1000 or so randomly selected targets.

Here that means the people who were sampled claimed, unexpectedly, to have 5% more Democrats than you want to believe exist.

The type of poll where oversampling is a problem is when they set, a priori, a quota of a sort for how many Demos, Nutballs and Reps they want, then keep calling until they get that many.

That gives the pollster much more control of the outcome ~ and it's typical of the sort of poll party professionals come up with to push the public.

There's a far more expensive polling the pros use where they get a detailed poll in every election district that affects their candidate. It's full bore polling and isn't done often ~ usually the last two weeks of a campaign.

This kind, again, is good to see what the trendline is, and it says that no matter what Obama or Romney say, do or think about ~ the audience is not responding.

That's my RACE TO THE BOTTOM thesis. That both are unlikeable and unpopular and will continue to shed factions as time goes on ~ and in the end nobody's polls will be meaningful. We've never had a race like this one!

40 posted on 08/21/2012 5:58:15 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: jb729

This is what is most encouraging to me.... the movement in swing state polling toward R&R. Even saw a new poll that had R&R over Obama in Michigan by a fairly significant margin. +4~5 points


41 posted on 08/21/2012 5:59:36 PM PDT by ABHurst51
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To: CaptainK
This month's sample Obama 48 to Mitt 44 45D/39R/13I

Last month's poll had Obama at 49 to Mitt 43 46D/35R/16I

2008 exit polls 39D/32R/29I

They oversample Dems and undersample Independents. That's because they are seeing that Romney is doing better with the Independemts than Obama is.

My take on this poll: Romney by 2 points, about the same as Rasmussen and Gallup.

42 posted on 08/21/2012 6:09:29 PM PDT by InterceptPoint (.)
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To: cherry

“there ARE more democrats in this country than pubs....they should be over sampled...”

Not necessarily this time, Rasmussen has shown a slight lead to Rep in congressional polling which should translate to the presidential race.
Also using 2008 voter turnout data is very suspect, it was an outlier as far as elections go.

I still feel the enthusiasm is with the Rep which will through thee poll into suspect territory.


43 posted on 08/21/2012 6:40:12 PM PDT by WILLIALAL
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To: WILLIALAL

Correction:

I still feel the enthusiasm is with the Rep which will throw these poll into suspect territory.


44 posted on 08/21/2012 6:41:35 PM PDT by WILLIALAL
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To: muawiyah

“That’s my RACE TO THE BOTTOM thesis. That both are unlikeable and unpopular and will continue to shed factions as time goes on ~ and in the end nobody’s polls will be meaningful. We’ve never had a race like this one!”

so what is going to motivate voters to go to the polls?

It will come down to voter turn out or the ground game, which has a very large component consisting of voter enthusiasm.
Right now I would put my money on the Rep being better able to turn out their voters.


45 posted on 08/21/2012 6:46:21 PM PDT by WILLIALAL
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To: Quickgun

Makes me wonder if the country is worth saving sometimes. If half the people in it still support Obama,Maybe the center of the country does need to secede, and Leave the nation of New Somalia to their utopia..


Yes it is worth saving. My grandad, dad, and I served/fought for the right to live free and choose.

Mitt/Paul are putting it out there in a fact based manner for us to make that
Decision.

If the fools who can’t see the smoke and mirrors want that type of country future they deserve it.

Us Vet/ others whoncarecwill do all we can to prevent their prevailing.


46 posted on 08/21/2012 6:58:11 PM PDT by patriotspride
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To: CaptainK

2008 + IN, NC, FL, VA, OH, NV o/r IA = 271EV


47 posted on 08/21/2012 6:58:35 PM PDT by StAnDeliver ("So, a Mormon and a Catholic walk onto an aircraft carrier...")
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To: WILLIALAL
My money (i don't gamble btw) is on all the local party activist groups with the SUVs and station wagons who know how to organize to get people to the polls to vote ~ or who help others do absentee ballots.

National level activities will not be all that exciting.

48 posted on 08/21/2012 7:03:17 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: CaptainK; All

Before you get too depressed by this one you should know that it samples D by +6, over samples union related people by at least 10%.

It is also somewhat contradictory within the responses.


49 posted on 08/21/2012 9:47:55 PM PDT by arrogantsob (Obama MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: muawiyah

To say that Romney is “unlikeable” is premature. Most people have never heard him speak and only hear all of these negative labels from the media nonstop, so they tend to echo what they have heard. His convention speech will be his introduction to a lot of people. If he hits it out of the ballpark he can, hopefully, change these negative perceptions.


50 posted on 08/22/2012 12:31:35 AM PDT by dupree
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