Free Republic
Browse · Search
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Bounce: New polls show Romney leading in Michigan, Wisconsin after Ryan pick
Hotair ^ | 08/21/2012 | AllahPundit

Posted on 08/21/2012 6:28:15 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

We need some good news. Second look at stealing the midwest right out from under Obama's nose?

PPP's first Wisconsin poll since Mitt Romney announced Paul Ryan as his running mate finds him taking a small lead over Barack Obama in the state, 48-47. That represents a 7 point shift from PPP's last look at the state in early July, which found Obama ahead 50-44.

The biggest change Ryan's selection seems to have brought about is the unification of the GOP. Romney's gone from a 78 point lead with Republicans on our last poll (87-9) to now an 88 point lead with them (93-5). There's also been a tightening with independents. Obama still has a 4 point lead with them at 47-43, but that's down from a 14 point advantage at 53-39 six weeks ago. Democrats are unchanged from the previous poll…

Choosing Ryan as his running mate isn't giving Romney any trouble with seniors in Wisconsin. That's actually where his greatest strength is, leading Obama 52-43 with them. Which isn’t to say the Ryan Plan is popular in Wisconsin- only 40% of voters support it to 46% who are opposed. But the concern with it is coming much more from young voters than seniors.

Two concerns with this poll. One: They’ve got the sample R+2, which isn’t totally nutty but still seems hard to believe for a presidential election in a reliably bluish state. Granted, the exit poll for Scott Walker’s recall win showed a net turnout of R+1, and granted, we’ve got a native son on the ticket this year. But the Dems’ turnout advantage four years ago was D+6. Are we really going to swing that a full eight points this time? I can see Romney winning the state, but not necessarily with a two-point spread for Republicans at the polls. Two: Behold the saddest of all demographic splits, my friends.

Senior citizens and near-seniors, who’ve already paid in and depend on their benefits being there right now, are actually pretty chill about The End Of Medicare As We Know It. Young adults, though, who’ll be sucked into a fiscal black hole if this program isn’t reformed in the near term? Total basket case. If ever you doubted the astounding influence of liberal orthodoxy on college students and recent grads, look at those numbers and let your doubts melt away.

Meanwhile, across the border in Michigan:

In the Foster McCollum White Baydoun poll for Fox 2 News Detroit of Michigan most likely voters in June, President Obama had a slight lead of 1.14 points (46.89% to 45.48%), within the margin of error. In the past seven weeks, not only has Mitt Romney stayed close, but now he has vaulted to the lead in Michigan. Our poll finding suggests that the naming of Paul Ryan as his running mate has given him the spark he needed. Romney now leads in Michigan by 3.8 points, a net gain of 5.21 points from June (Romney 47.68% to Obama 43.88%)…

In spite of national criticism of the Ryan selection and budget plan, our findings suggest that Michigan voters are viewing both as positives for Romney. 36.11% of Michigan voters are more likely to vote for Romney because of the Paul Ryan selection while only 27.90% are less likely to vote for Romney.

The good news? The sample here was big and well targeted: 1,733 respondents, all of whom identified as likely voters. Unfortunately, there’s no partisan split provided so it’s hard to tell who’s been oversampled. But this seems promising, even if the results in the “strongly support/oppose” columns aren’t:

The one hitch here is that, over the past two months, there’s been just one other poll showing Romney in the lead in Michigan, and that poll — Mitchell Reports, conducted on July 23 — showed him up by a single point. The most recent poll from Mitchell was conducted on August 13, two days after Ryan’s introduction as VP. That one showed Romney … suddenly trailing in Michigan by five points. Assuming that one’s accurate and the one quoted above is the outlier, I wonder what caused Mitt to dip. It’s probably not Ryan; Mediscare or no, a VP pick’s not going to weigh on the ticket that heavily that soon. It must be the Bain/tax attacks. Flag these two results now, as the next Michigan poll will settle the issue of who’s right.

TOPICS: Culture/Society; Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: Michigan; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: 2012; 2012polls; 2012swingstates; mi2012; michigan; romney; ryan; wi2012; wisconsin

1 posted on 08/21/2012 6:28:31 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Any idea what the internals on either poll were?

2 posted on 08/21/2012 6:50:28 PM PDT by irish guard
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Barry to block traffic in Detroit?

Great photo op in the ruins of Detroit. Maybe he can tout urban farming.

3 posted on 08/21/2012 7:00:22 PM PDT by School of Rational Thought (Fun for women ages 21 through 35)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: irish guard

My thoughts exactly..what are the internals on this? What was the over-sampling? Anyone?

4 posted on 08/21/2012 7:25:20 PM PDT by Shaka
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

If Romney gets Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida, he doesn’t need Ohio and Virginia.

5 posted on 08/21/2012 7:28:01 PM PDT by cotton1706
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

I hope these polls are correct. Of course, the one in November is the only one that matters.

6 posted on 08/21/2012 7:43:20 PM PDT by Repeal 16-17 (Let me know when the Shooting starts.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: cotton1706

Florida is looking promising :)

7 posted on 08/21/2012 8:04:50 PM PDT by Momto2 (I hate it when I wake up and Obama is President.......)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: All

Help End The Obama Era In 2012
Your Monthly and Quarterly Donations
Help Keep FR In the Battle!

Sponsoring FReepers are contributing
$10 Each time a New Monthly Donor signs up!
Get more bang for your FR buck!
Click Here To Sign Up Now!

8 posted on 08/21/2012 8:09:09 PM PDT by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Michigan? My beeber is stuned. I never thought I’d see the day when we had a chance there.

9 posted on 08/21/2012 8:29:40 PM PDT by rdl6989 (January 20, 2013 The end of an error.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Shaka

The poll internals show that the political ID breakdown is:

34% - Republican
32% -Democrat
34% - Independent

so that is a Rep +2 sample.


10 posted on 08/21/2012 8:58:03 PM PDT by dvwjr (Gallup)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

More good news. Thanks for posting.

11 posted on 08/22/2012 1:02:50 AM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
The problem with Barry, Axelrod and 'Team Obama' is that they're stuck in .. oh .. 1970. As such they think that 'seniors' and 'near seniors' are the doddering old fools they recall from their misguided (revolutionary) 'youth'.

They forget that today, 65 is the new 45, 50 is like being 30, and we aren't like their Grandparents were. We still HUNT, SHOOT, FISH, CAMP, DANCE, go BIKE riding, ride our HARLEYS. We still play our Strats, Teles, and Les Pauls, and are still ROCKIN' on and/or playing some Sweeeeeet Blues! To boot, most of us can still dress ourselves and we don't need help wipin' our behinds either!

Lastly, us 'seniors' pretty much told AARP to go take a flying leap. And that's the worse thing that could happen to the RATS regarding 'us old folks'. /s

I've been playing an Axe since 1964 and had a Fender Strat since 1984. I now have Six Electric Guitars that I've got over the last 'few' years. And in One Week I'll be ordering a 100 Watt Fender Mustang III Amplifier! 'Old' I ain't!!!

12 posted on 08/22/2012 5:09:05 AM PDT by Condor51 (Si vis pacem, para bellum.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Condor51
They forget that today, 65 is the new 45, 50 is like being 30...

It's the truth of the Oil Of Olay philosophy - "Grow old gracefully? Naaaah! I'm fightin' it every step of the way!"

13 posted on 08/22/2012 8:16:18 AM PDT by Tonytitan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794 is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson