Skip to comments.Rasmussen: Linda McMahon leads in CT, 49/46
Posted on 08/22/2012 12:20:32 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
There's no way that Republicans can lose a Senate race in Missouri while winning two in Massachusetts and Connecticut ... right? Would Spock have to wear a goatee in that universe? Rasmussen’s new poll in the Nutmeg State shows Republican nominee Linda McMahon out to a slight lead over Democratic nominee Chris Murphy in their first look at the general election race for Joe Lieberman's US Senate seat:
Former wrestling executive Linda McMahon holds a narrow lead over Democratic Congressman Chris Murphy in Rasmussen Reports first look at Connecticuts U.S. Senate race.
A new telephone survey of Likely Voters in Connecticut shows McMahon with 49% of the vote to Murphys 46%. One percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
McMahon will surely make Murphy's support for ObamaCare a big issue in the election, but Rasmussen sees that as more of a push:
Murphy voted in favor of President Obamas health care reform law and has publicly stated that the law will save money on Medicare. When it comes to the future of Medicare, 44% of Connecticut voters are scared more by the presidents health care law than the reform proposal by Mitt Romneys running mate Paul Ryan. But just as many (43%) say they are more scared of Ryans proposal on Medicare. Connecticut voters are more evenly divided on the question than voters are nationwide.
Eighty percent (80%) of Connecticut voters who fear the health care laws impact on Medicare more support McMahon. Murphy is backed by 77% of those who fear Ryans plan for Medicare more.
This can’t be right, can it? Rasmussen must be using a Republican-friendly sample, people will assume … but they’d be wrong. In fact, the sample D/R/I (46/32/22) more closely resembles the 2008 Democratic wave exit polls (43/27/31) than the 2010 exit polls (39/28/33) for Connecticut. Remember that Republicans lost the Senate seat in 2010 even with the narrower gap in turnout, too. Murphy has a seven-point lead among women, which Rasmussen oversamples (56/44) in comparison to 2008 (53/47) and 2010 (49/51). The poll sample, if anything, might be tilted a little in Murphy’s favor.
So how does McMahon get her lead? She has a 24-point margin among independents, 55/31, for one thing. McMahon only trails by nine among voters under 40 (40/49), but gets a majority of the other two age demos, including an 18-point lead among seniors. Both candidates are seen favorably by voters, but McMahon’s 54/43 is slightly better than Murphy’s 50/41. Among independents, though, McMahon again far outpaces Murphy, with a 57/36 compared to Murphy’s 38/46 — and only 6% of independents view Murphy “very favorably,” as opposed to 23% for McMahon.
The big difference, besides the obvious advantage among independents, is probably the economy. Democrats will be on defense, especially Murphy, who currently has a seat in the House. Only 5% of voters rate the economy as “good,” with no one rating it excellent. A majority of 57% rate it “poor,” and another 37% only rate it “fair.” That will not help an incumbent, not even in Connecticut.
If McMahon can maintain her advantage over Murphy, the GOP may get an unexpected pickup to make up for the now-expected loss in Missouri. It might also force Obama to spend some resources to make sure McMahon doesn’t drive enough turnout to have Connecticut voters thinking about change at the very top of the ticket, too.
CT goes Republican??? Love to see it, but I’ll believe it when I see pigs fly. Of course, Scott Brown did win an open seat in MA last time........
Wow... puttin the smack down on her opponent.
“Would Spock have to wear a goatee in that universe?”
“Mirror Mirror,” one of my favorite Original Series episodes. Some one please post the photo of Spock in the goatee. Oh heck, forget that. How about Uhura in the “two piece” uniform? A much better image...
Probably not in my area in the nw corner...here it’s all Chris Murphy drones.
I think a lot of voters are thinking just that, but aren't saying it out loud yet.
A hopeful sign.
Also have to consider that many voters will vote for McMahon because they are WWE fans. I hope she wins it would take a huge load off of the whole MO Senate race
God BLESS this lady!!!!!
How about a picture of Uhura meeting Obama in the oval office!
Linda was making the rounds at our annual oyster festival last Saturday in Milford. Meanwhile the Dems’ tent was swarmed with AFSCME and SEIU members all wearing purple 99%er t-shirts. They played the part of angry rent-a-thugs too well. It was a stark contrast. I’ve been optimistic since then.
I’ve been trying to tell folks here for a while, but even few here want to listen. The real political discussion by October will be will the Republicans get 60 Senate Seats. Only the biggest leftist kool aid drinkers will remotely trying to argue Obama has any prayer of re-election.
There is a landslide coming, up and down the ballot, and its going to make 2010 and 1994 look like they were good days for democrats by comparison.
the GOP may get an unexpected pickup to make up for the now-expected loss in Missouri.”
Maybe, maybe not.....I’d love to see Akin put it to the Dem.
Ditto. I'm not buying this poll. McMahon got crushed by an opponent far worst than Murphy last time, in an otherwise great year for the GOP. If she wins this time, I'll eat my hat. At least those who think John Raese has a prayer in West Virginia are clinging to the hope that they'll be coattails from Romney winning big in that state. What has McMahon got? The state is safe RAT for Obama so it's hard to believe they're that peeved about Obamacare.
IMO, we should focus on taking RAT-held Senate seats in Nebraska, Wisconsin, Virgina, Ohio, Montana, Michigan, Florida, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania. The idea that Conn. is "in play" is a distraction for the GOP and diverts our resources from where they are needed. We'd probably have a better chance at taking New Mexico and Hawaii from the RATs, and both of those are unlikely as it is.
No thanks. I was thinking of the Uhura of 1968...
You are making my head spin and heart quiver!!!! Wow, that’s a bold and awesome prediction!
ve been trying to tell folks here for a while, but even few here want to listen. The real political discussion by October will be will the Republicans get 60 Senate Seats. Only the biggest leftist kool aid drinkers will remotely trying to argue Obama has any prayer of re-election.
There is a landslide coming, up and down the ballot, and its going to make 2010 and 1994 look like they were good days for democrats by comparison.
Man, I hope you are right. I would take a Romney squeaker...anything...just get that Clown out of the WH.
Ask and it shall be given you.
I’m not buying either. I’ll gladly take the CN Senate seat if it happens. That would mean a bloodbath for the democrats nationally, and I would party like it’s 1980. Come to think of it, 1980 was a continuous party...but I digress...
In addition to the seats you list, don’t forget we have to play defense too. Indiana polls show Mourdock, who deposed Lugar, more or less even with Donnelly. Despite the fact that Romney is running away with Indiana and Pence will likely defeat Gregg for Governor, Donelly is running effective ads and Mourdock has not yet responded.
Awesome! Thank you.
I expect the final tally in the POTUS race to not be close. Current polls in no way, shape, or form are reflecting reality in terms of motivation to remove this POS from office. I predict that turnout on the GOP will be shockingly big.
Post the picture of the Vulcan chick in her mirror universe uniform!! Now that’s a nice visual!
The discussion of numbers is too esoteric for many. Ehe visceral issue of a Death Panel is far more effective politically.
Madison - Rolling on from last week’s primary victory, Republican Tommy Thompson leads Democrat Tammy Baldwin in the U.S. Senate race, two new polls show.
A poll by Marquette University Law School found the former governor leading the U.S. representative from Madison by 50%-41%. That lead for the former longtime governor and former federal Health and Human Services secretary was just larger than the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.2% percentage points.
The telephone poll was conducted on August 16-19 with 576 likely voters and included cellphones in its sample.
Also Wednesday, a new poll by Democratic firm Public Policy Polling gave Thompson a 49%-44% lead, a bump from a poll by the firm in July that had the pair tied at 45%. The margin is still just within the 2.7% margin of error for the poll, which surveyed 1,308 likely voted using an automated telephone survey.
Obama has a MAX popular vote number of 42-43%, and thats if he runs a perfect campaign, his campaign is a joke. I Honestly think this guy will be LUCKY to hit 40% of the vote on election day. He may very well get a lower pecentage of the vote than Hoover in 1932. We are looking at a repudiation of an administration of epic proportions folks... This isn’t going to be a squeaker.
Obviously fight like it is, but there is no way its going ot happen.
If everything were to remain static from 2008 to today just 1 in 14 obama voters would have to change their minds for him to lose. Does anyone really thing a guy who has presided over the biggest disaster of an administration in 100 years isn’t going to lose 1 in 14 of his supporters? Seriously, fewer folks are going to have JOBS the day his term ends than the day he took office!! No president in the modern era can make that claim, not EVEN CARTER!!!
Factor in that things won’t be static from 2008, Republicans won’t be sitting on their hands this time around. I fully expect at the end of the day independents will break close to 2-1 for Romney. IN some polling a full 20% of democrats are admitting they will vote for Romney, when just swing states are polled Obama is down roughly 10 points today... Do you think his numbers can go up??
42-43%, that’s his popular vote max.. and I franly don’t think he’ll hit that.
Sorry, wrong number.
The GOP will take Missouri no matter if Akin or any one of the other two run.
The GOP will lose if there is a write-in candidate.
Barbara Luna was hot in that episode, too.
I haven’t seen a lot of Linda McMahon, but what I have seen has impressed me. She’s a tough, smart lady. I probably wouldn’t agree with her on every issue (i.e. she’s probably more liberal on some things than I would like) , but Connecticut is another one of those states where I think you have to pick your battles. If she ends up being the equivalent of a Scott Brown, I could certainly live with that as the “replacement” for Joe Lieberman.
I was going to say the same thing...or well, I'll believe it when I see 'Alberto DelRio' drive a FIAT 500 into the arena, instead of the cars ($150K+) that he drives.
Maybe, CT voters are going to pick up 3 house seats (CT-2, CT-4 and CT-5) for the GOP. (CT-1 John Larson and CT-3 Rosie DeNutjob are to LIBERAL to go GOP, even thought John Larson talks - in the district like a conservative - he votes like a LIB and CT-3 is home of New Mexico City (fka New Haven, so Rosie will win!)
Could someone please vote GOP for the state races!! Please!!
The Small towns of the Litchfield Hills are trending Democratic? I hope Roxbury, Bethleham and Morris are Republican.
I hope South Windsor and Glastonbury will go for Romney!! (My towns that I spent time in!! the other town I grew up in (East Hartford won't vote for Romney!)
She had the question of the race last time:
Something like “How do you create a job?” that had her opponent completely deer in the headlights.
Who knows I hope the numbers are true. Two years ago mayve everyone in CT could still convince themselves that Obama would turn it around.
Maybe reality hit them all like a 2x4 in between the eyes these last two years and its dulling the effect of the kool aie.
Obama got 50% of male voters in 2008. Heh... Anyone think that’s going to happen again? I think not.
CT Goes Republican???
It Is entirely Possible. Don’t sell her short.
If we could get the voter registration rolls clean of non-legal names, and post armed guards at all the Cemeteries to keep the RATS from re-collecting their loyalists, ......
CT’s got a Tax-o-RAT Governor. He may just be enough of a ugly reminder to Get Linda elected.
Yes, most signs if not all point in that direction. The Dims have overplayed their predilections for Marxism, and their media can't cover the Dems for what has happened over the last 4 years and what will happen in the future if there is no change in direction.
Isn't it interesting how wrestling imitates the goings on in the dem party? All the stuff the "bad guys" get away with that everyone except the ref sees. Art, in a manner of speaking, imitating life. Especially how CM Punk schtick of demanding respect, isn't he emulating the crybaby-in-cheif? If I lived in CT Mrs. McMahon would definately have my vote.
Isn't it interesting how wrestling imitates the goings on in the dem party? All the stuff the "bad guys" get away with that everyone except the ref sees. Art, in a manner of speaking, imitating life. Especially CM Punk's schtick of demanding respect, isn't he emulating the crybaby-in-cheif? If I lived in CT Mrs. McMahon would definately have my vote.
Mainstream media predictably has this election as a "horse race" but they are deep in denial. We are going to see a GOP landslide that might well outperform that of 1980.
Furthermore, I believe that Mitt Romney might shock a lot of conservatives who have written him off as a hopeless RINO. The choice of Paul Ryan is only the beginning. Remember that Romney ran successfully for office in what probably is the most liberal state in all of America.
Only a very few Republicans have ever won statewide in Massachusetts over the past 50 years.
2010 was a big year for us — and McMahon was the nominee running against a guy who claimed to serve in Vietnam multiple times and lied through his teeth! She still lost.
The poll is encouraging but we need to see more.
In 2010 she ran against a far superior opponent, one that was well known and had solid approval all throughout the state. Murphy’s not close to Blumenthal as a candidate.
I am surprised big time by this poll, my feeling has been that Linda M had little chance. Obviously future polls will reveal whether or not it’s a fluke.
But if this race is winnable it would nice to win it.
And the NRSC will put money in if it really is, as they should.
And Blumenthal I’m wouldn’t necessarily say was “worse” than Murphy. He was quite popular but he had a scandal crop up.
I’ve noticed a lot of undecideds in the Indiana race, people that are clearly going for Romney in the POTUS race. It’s hard for me to envision them breaking for the rat Donnelly.
Lugar RINO voters?
These numbers will no hold. Every election we see good numbers for the GOP from NJ, Conn, Penn, and MI in the run-up...but by late October the numbers flip to the dems. Same old same old every cycle.
The rats have got to be freaked out from coast to coast. I don’t know if there’s a phrase for “anti-coattails”, but that’s exactly what they are facing. Normal, taxpaying, traditional American families are so disgusted by the African communist “food stamp president” they will crawl through broken glass to vote him OUT. And a lot of rats are going with him, and they know it.
Lay down with dogs...
I don’t think it’s Hoosier RINO voters; we have an independent streak of not following long coat tails. When Mitch Daniels ran for governor 4 years ago, he slaughtered his opponent. But 0bama won Indiana.
I think it’s more reflective of Donnelly running a good campaign. He’s a total DNC robot, but he’s hiding it by running like a blue dog and making effective attacks on Mourdock. Mourdock is doing some radio spots but no TV in the Indy market. He needs to get his a$$ in gear and go sell himself.
You know, I’m apprehensive myself re: that CT poll, but I’m not ready to just throw it put. There’s something going on in CT that may signal it being at least as semi-competitive as in 2004 (when Kerry beat GW Bush by 54%-44%—the same as in CA), and perhaps as competitive as in 1992 (when Clinton beat GHW Bush by 42%-36%, but Bush likely would have won by a whisker had Perot not been on the ballot) or even 1988 (when GHW Bush beat Dukakis by 52%-47%). Obama is running TV commercials (or least was fairly recently) in Hartford, a market that reached only CT and Western MA—MA is far safer Dem turf than CT, so Obama must be at least mildly concerned about CT. We should keep an eye on CT. Even if Obama ends up winning it (as I am fairly confident he will), a competitive race in CT would signal a likely Romney victory in NH, PA and maybe NJ.
As for the Senate race itself, my understanding is that McMahon’s TV ads about how Chris Murphy was absent from almost 80% of his committee meetings for financial oversight committees have been very effective. The ending really packs a wallop: Would you pay a worker $170,000 a year if he doesnt show up for meetings? Good stuff.
No, in a Van Dyke, the mustache and chin-beard don’t connect; Spock’s connected (clearly, from that picture, on the right side of the face, and presumably also on the left side), so it’s a goatee.
I had been reading that Linda McMahon has improved as a candidate, but this is astonishing. I’ll need to see other polls, as this could simply be a statistical glitch.
I’m shocked his not on TV yet, it’s time to get into gear.