Skip to comments.WINNING: New CU Analysis Points to Likely Romney Victory
Posted on 08/22/2012 1:19:40 PM PDT by rocksandbroncs
Today, the University of Colorado released an analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 and found that these factors add up to a Romney victory in 2012 with an Obama loss in Colorado.
When just the two major parties are considered, their analysis predicts that Romney will receive 51.9% of the vote compared to Obamas predicted 48.1% nationally.
According to the two political science professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry, the key is the economy. The two explained their prediction model:
[The] prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.
This model, developed by Bickers and Berry, is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. The research also shows that voters hold Democrats more responsible for unemployment, while Republicans are held more responsible for per capita income. And, we say, carry on voters! Check out the charts below.
When Obama took office in January 2009, unemployment in Colorado was just 6.6%. As of the last Bureau of Labor Statistics report, the July 2012 unemployment is at 8.3%. Ouch.
Contrast that with per capita income, which is a yearly compilation. Its risen 9.3% in the same time period. In 2009, the average Colorado per capita income was $41,388 and in 2011, the average Colorado per capita income was $44,088, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce.
(Excerpt) Read more at coloradopeakpolitics.com ...
Which is about the percentage of people who don’t pay taxes.
48%? isn’t that about where he’s been stuck at for perpetuity?? Isn’t that the number of his dependents?
Not good enough. I want Obamugabe to have...at best...40% of the two-party vote.
I’d really rather have him get 22% or less. But I’ll take 40%.
Th economic issues are certainly major ones and the ones most likely to unseat him.
But there are other issues also, very frightening, precedent setting ones delivered by this incumbent.
He has set a pattern of governance outside the Constitution, he has compromised our national security here and abroad, he has filled too many court positions with people who think like him and he has successfully undertaken a war against Judaeo-Christian religion.
A prediction based on this analysis being correct:
On January 21, 2013, an old veteran (possibly me, except that I have never given the community organizer a title higher than former junior US Senator) will approach the White House from the park across Pennsylvania Ave. He will speak to the US Marine standing guard and say, “I would like to go in and meet with President Obama.”
The marine will looked at the vet and answer, “Sir, Mr. Obama is no longer president and no longer resides here.” The old vet will say, “Okay,” and walk away.
On January 22, 2013, the same vet will approach the White House and say to the same Marine, “I would like to go in and meet with President Obama.”
The marine will again tell the vet, “Sir, Mr. Obama is no longer president and no longer resides here.” The vet will thank him and, again, just walk away.
On January 22, 2013, the same vet will approach the White House and speak to the very same Marine saying, “I would like to go in and meet with President Obama.”
The Marine, understandably agitated at this point, will look at the vet and say, “Sir, this is the third day in a row that you have been here asking to speak to Mr. Obama and I’ve already told you that Mr. Obama is no longer the president and no longer resides here. Don’t you understand?”
The old vet will look at the Marine and say, “Oh, I understand. I just love hearing it.”
The marine will snap to attention, salute and say, “See you tomorrow, Sir!”
Beautiful, although I’ll admit it was plagiarized shamelessly from an old Clinton joke.
intrade interestingly enough still has BO winning the election with 57.5% percent buying that bet.
If this prediction comes true, there could be only one way to improve on the outcome ... to have California’s, Massachusetts’ and Maryland’s commitment to the national popular vote project require them to cast their EV’s for Romney, even as obama would have handily won those states.
You are right. Obama is sure to carry the other 7 states. Obama is the only one who ever campaigns there.
I'll bet they also forgot to factor in the dead people and illegal alien votes. Those are two of the Democrats' most reliable voting blocks.
I can't find it with a quick Google search, but I seem to remember these same guys publishing a study in 2010 or 2011 that said Obama was going to win using the same formula. I wonder what changed other than more of the same economic depression?
All we can do is educate and vote. The only way Obumer can win will be cheating in major cities to compensate the suburbs and rural votes and if the white vote is guilted into giving him another chance.
I don’t know about this Moocher is telling her people to get out and vote on NOVEMBER 2! as per Drudge :-)