Skip to comments.Academic model: Romney will take 52.9% of the vote, 320 electoral votes
Posted on 08/22/2012 6:01:28 PM PDT by nhwingut
Three reasons why: Economy, economy, economy.
Supposedly, the models been accurate to within 20 or so electoral votes in every election since 1980. Dude?
Using a state-by-state analysis of unemployment and per-capita income, academics Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry of the University of Colorado project that Romney will win 52.9% of the popular vote and 320 electoral votes. The political scientists discuss their findings here.
Their forecast suggests that President Obama will lose in almost all of the swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida
Bickers said much of the polling thus far means relatively little, with much of the electorate still not focused on the race. The academics said their model focuses on the preeminent issue of the economy. Applied retrospectively, the model predicts the correct winner in every presidential contest going back to 1980, they said.
Im highly skeptical that Romneys going to come back to take Pennsylvania, even though Os lead there right now isnt prohibitive. But like the man says, the models usually off by 20 or so EVs. Number of electoral votes Pennsylvania has this year: 20. Golden.
Meanwhile, in the poll of polls
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That would be awesome.
I find it hard to believe that Zero would lose Minnesota. Too many Kool Aid drinkers, and a Secretary of State that is a poster boy for election fraud.
Not to throw cold water on those encouraged by this, but I think that sentence just said that when the election is over, this model is very good at picking the right outcome.
I can do that too.
It is possbile.. Got a reminder Wisconsin recall, almost all polls under counted republicans as they were using bad models. They had it stastical dead heat and Walker won by 5 or 6 points.. I think it will be same in Presidential electiion.
The statement obviously means that the economic data of the past election years has been fed through the model as though those elections had not yet occurred.
Social attitudes change, but the way that voters react to a crappy economy and high unemployment numbers seems to be very consistent through the years.
I don’t understand how Obama could win more than 5 states or more than 40% of the popular vote.
When people are fat and happy, they are content with the status quo. When people are suffering, they want incumbents out.
Economic models employ various independent variables to predict the outcome. If the model, without any adjustment beyond year dummy, is applied to the data for those exact variables and give similar outcome as the actual (allowing some statistical errors) then I’d say it’s a good model. I’d still like to know how far their predicted values from the actual values are.
If you are right -- and not saying you aren't -- that sentence makes absolutely no sense to me. It seems to be saying they apply the model after the fact.
Any way you can return to Europe and cast out the infidels? :>)
That's called "back testing". Frequently done with investment strategies. Also frequently convinces people they're smarter than they really are...
There is no way Obama loses Minnesota. I say this with blood squirting from my eyes.
There is no scenario under which the libs in this state would find enough fault to vote for someone other than the magic Kenyan from Choomdale.
After all, when one is a lib, one does not questions the ways of the Messiah.
That has been my prediction for about two months.
So, do they wait til the election is over and then apply their model?
yes, it looks like a 180 reversal of 2008, Romney will win 53/47ish. But if it was an “Honest Election”, like they have in Nevada,Philly and Chicago, it would be closer to a 60/40 Romney landslide.
74.42% of the vote.
Is it even possible? A lot will have to happen in the next 11 weeks to make that happen.
The reasons why Mitt is so much persona non grata within these walls, are not largely predominant in larger America. And thanks to hysterical communiques like Obama’s latest from Sandra Fluke that equates Mitt Romney to the questionable sexologist Akin, if they hear that Mitt is too liberal they will never hear that from Barack Obama. Result: slam dunk in popular vote for Mitt. He will mop the floor with Barack.
Never misunderestimate Barack’s capability of jamming his foot ever further into his mouth.