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Academic model predicts big Romney win (Model has predicted every winner since 1980)
American Thinker ^ | 08/23/2012 | Rick Moran

Posted on 08/23/2012 8:19:30 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Few pollsters are predicting an electoral landslide for Romney, but two academics from the University of Colorado have run the numbers through a statistical model they built and found Mitt Romney to be the clear winner in November.

LA Times:

Campaign 2012 may have spent weeks stuck on discussions of Mitt Romney's taxes, Joe Biden's rant on putting "y'all in chains" and "legitimate rape" and abortion, but a pair of Colorado political scientists believe the struggling economy will still be the dominant issue and will pave the way for a Romney victory. Using a state-by-state analysis of unemployment and per-capita income, academics Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry of the University of Colorado project that Romney will win 52.9% of the popular vote and 320 electoral votes. The political scientists discuss their findings here.

Their forecast suggests that President Obama will lose in almost all of the swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.

The Obama camp might note that the president leads, if narrowly, in most of those states. Pennsylvania is considered solidly enough in the Democrat's column that both sides have stopped television advertising there. But Bickers said much of the polling thus far means relatively little, with much of the electorate still not focused on the race. The academics said their model focuses on the preeminent issue of the economy. Applied retrospectively, the model predicts the correct winner in every presidential contest going back to 1980, they said.

No doubt if the election turns on how the economy is doing, Romney has a chance for a clear victory. Romney's problem has been and will be how to focus the attention of the voter on the economic failures of this president

(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: model; potus; prediction; romney

1 posted on 08/23/2012 8:19:37 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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I don’t think I’d put money in PA just yet, but the rest are very possible.

I think Romney is going to proved Obama a mirror image of the McCain race. VA, FL, IN, NC flips back to GOP easily, whereas Romney could win Iowa much like Obama won North Carolina, and Wisconsin could be the flipside of VA. New Hampshire or Colorado is Indiana...basically just a flip of 2008.


2 posted on 08/23/2012 8:27:10 AM PDT by Crimson Elephant
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To: SeekAndFind
From the article

It is likely that eventually, Obama will run out of distractions and in the last 10 days of the race, the economy will move front and center.

This is why we have to prepare for an October surprise.

Zero's team will have to manufacture distractions.

Media will not question them if they make zero look good.

3 posted on 08/23/2012 8:32:36 AM PDT by cicero2k
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To: Crimson Elephant

I think Romney is going to win Wisconsin, Iowa, Florida, Indiana, Colorado, and NC. I think Obama will hold Virginia. In this scenerio, Romney needs to win Minnesota, Michican, Ohio, Pennsylvania, OR New Hampshire AND Nevada.


4 posted on 08/23/2012 8:35:21 AM PDT by wolfman23601
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To: Crimson Elephant

If His Excellency, AKA IWON, gets to see that report while roosting upside down from one of the rafters in the White House attic, he might just blow. It is definitely the time for Romney to turn the fire up even higher. O is wrapped so tight, he will go off with little provocation especially if his internal polls show exactly what that poll shows: him losing most of the swing states.

There has even been a subtle change in the lap dog media lately too. He is actually getting challenged on occasion. His comment yesterday that the OHIO spelling was an altered photo, the press reported it was not. Small almost unnoticeable changes may become more of a torrent when it gets closer to the election. The IWON will not be able to handle it, bank on that.

In light of the documentary out on him, someone should ask him if his apology tour of two years ago supports the contention made in the movie. That would definitely do it!


5 posted on 08/23/2012 8:36:27 AM PDT by Mouton (Voting is an opiate of the electorate. Nothing changes no matter who wins..)
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To: SeekAndFind

When they say got everyone right going back to 1980, does that include 1980? If so, this model looks to be a good one. The media that year was way off, as much as any year. If this model saw the underlying fundamentals and predicted Reagan in a big win, I would trust it’s findings this year.


6 posted on 08/23/2012 8:36:59 AM PDT by ilgipper
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To: Crimson Elephant

Which leads to my new Nightmare Scenario....

On the night before the election a freak early season Noreaster roars up the East Coast and dumps over a foot of snow from D.C. to Boston.

The City of Philadelphia is buried in blizzard conditions. It is basically shut down. Unable to move or go anywhere, turnout in the Philadelphia region is historically light, allowing Romney to take Pennsylvania.

The next day the NAACP, Urban League, New Black Panthers, and all other usual suspects gin up an outcry that they have been “disenfranchised” and demand a do-over. But nothing in Pennsylvania or Federal Law permits this.

The result is protests, rioting, chaos in the streets, and, eventually, Martial Law.

I’m really hoping it just rains.


7 posted on 08/23/2012 8:37:16 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: SeekAndFind

“Mitt Romney to be the clear winner in November.”

Be still my beating heart


8 posted on 08/23/2012 8:39:28 AM PDT by V_TWIN (obama=where there's smoke, there's mirrors)
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To: Crimson Elephant

If Romney fights for PA, he can win PA... Don’t kid yourself. PA Democrats outside of Philly area, are NOT left wing ideologues, they are BLUE DOGS, and Obama has basically lost them.

Romney brings the fight to PA, he very well can win it. If he doens’t fight for it he probably won’t.


9 posted on 08/23/2012 8:42:36 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: sickoflibs
Using a state-by-state analysis of unemployment and per-capita income, academics Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry of the University of Colorado project that Romney will win 52.9% of the popular vote and 320 electoral votes. The political scientists discuss their findings here.

Their forecast suggests that President Obama will lose in almost all of the swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.

Good news ping

10 posted on 08/23/2012 8:43:05 AM PDT by GOPJ (Politics is war without bloodshed, and war is politics with bloodshed. - Mao Tse Tung. We're at war)
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To: SeekAndFind

Landslide? I can see a tsunami coming in November from my window.


11 posted on 08/23/2012 8:58:25 AM PDT by Hotlanta Mike (Resurrect the House Committee on Un-American Activities (HUAC)...before there is no America!)
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To: ilgipper

From the article:

“Applied retrospectively, the model predicts the correct winner in every presidential contest going back to 1980, they said.”

Retrospectively, I can correctly predict last week’s weather, and I am not even a meteorologist.


12 posted on 08/23/2012 9:07:15 AM PDT by ThirdMate
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To: Crimson Elephant

Obama is LOST in the South and the Rust Belt!

Only state in the south he may hold could be VA with the DC area skewing the state. Obama will lose NC, FL

In the Rust belt, the ONLY 2 states safe for Obama are MN and IL. Obama will lose IA,WI,IN and OH easily.

PA and MI are battleground, if Romney fights for them, he can win them. Ff Romney fights for PA and MI, best Obama can do is spend a crap load of time and money hope for a squeaker to hold them, and honestly I don’t think he can hold PA if Romney fights for it.

The polls are crap folks. PA and MI are currently battleground, Romney fights for him, he can win them.

Obama’s flat out animosity toward the Blue Dog voter, makes him a Dead Man Walking throughout the rust belt and south.

Obama, Pelosi and Reid have driven the Democratic party over a demographic cliff. They have lost the Working Class White Voter (the blue dogs) and no democrat can win without this continengent.

Obama is heading for an electoral loss where at best he can do is get 42-43% of the popular vote, and in reality, could very well not even get 40% of the vote. He may get less of the popular vote than any incumbent president Herbert Hoover in 1932, and very well may get less than Hoover did.


13 posted on 08/23/2012 9:12:37 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: SeekAndFind
since 1980

And if I remember correctly, the biggest reason this model predicted Carter in 1980 (narrowly, even then) is that Carter was polling well ahead of Reagan in July 1980, double digits ahead in fact.

In contrast, Obama and Romney are polling even in 2012 -- and even THAT is with polls of "registered voters" (instead of "likely") and/or an over-sampling of Dems.

14 posted on 08/23/2012 9:41:09 AM PDT by pogo101
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To: SeekAndFind

I’m not really impressed, because in retrospect, even if the winners in those races were mediocre, the loses generally stank on ice. [Minor candidates in brackets].

1980 Ronald Reagan vs. Jimmy “malaise” Carter. [”Mister” Anderson].

1984 Ronald Reagan vs. Walter “duh” Mondale.

1988 George H.W. “Reagan’s coattails” Bush vs. Michael “rape my wife, please” Dukakis.

1992 Bill “the con artist” Clinton vs. George H.W. “read my lips” Bush. [Ross “plum loco” Perot].

1996 Bill “I like big butts” Clinton vs. Bob “Bob Dole says” Dole.

2000 George W. “police state” Bush vs. Al “Manbearpig” Gore.

2004 George W. “even more police state” Bush vs. John “the traitor” Kerry.

2008 Obama vs. John “the living undead” McCain.


15 posted on 08/23/2012 9:43:45 AM PDT by yefragetuwrabrumuy
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To: HamiltonJay
Obama, Pelosi and Reid have driven the Democratic party over a demographic cliff. They have lost the Working Class White Voter (the blue dogs) and no democrat can win without this contingent.

Bingo, you hit the nail right on the head. When I saw all those coal miners lining up to support the GOP ticket the other day, I unofficially declared the race to be all over except for the tears and rage on the part of the neo-commies.

16 posted on 08/23/2012 9:52:43 AM PDT by Kenton
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To: Kenton

Obama has OBLITERATED the coal industry, he won’t get 10% of the UMW Union if that’s vote. In fact the UMW Union pulled all money from his campaign, they aren’t giving him a dime.

Pelosi, Reid and Obama have driven away one of the biggest blocks of their voting contingency. Working class white voters... This is why the Rust Belt is looking at a GENERATIONAL shift. Once this group en masse decides to break with generations of tradtionally voting for Democrats, the democrats are DEMOGRAPHICALLY doomed nationally for a long time and that shift is happening folks.

You think the mill worker in Ohio is a radical leftist? Do you think hes voted democrat because he wants gay marriage? Or things someone else built that when he deals with his boss and owner? Hell no. They aren’t socialists, they are just working joes, who have traditionally gone democrat due to generational union ties, not because they believe in socialist or progressive social policies.

They arent’ by and large class warfare types, they just want an honest shot. This administration has effectively spit on them for 4 years, and taken them for granted. Coal has been destroyed by this administration in particular, now I know unions aren’t going to turn Republican overnight, but the rank and file can indeed be wooed away, and frankly there is little need to woo at this point, the dems have pissed on them for 4 years and they are sick of it.

What is happening in the RUST BELT is what happened in the south, its re-aligning and the more radical and open the democrats are to their leftist views, the more this will happen. While the rust belt is not as individualistic as the south, therefor slower to shift, and took more radical democrats to push them away, make no mistake it is happening, and it very well could be like the south a generational shift if republicans when in power don’t overplay their hands, and confuse the rust belt with the south.


17 posted on 08/23/2012 10:07:24 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: SeekAndFind

InTrade is still at 57.3% for Obama. They have a pretty good record also. I would like to see this improve before I get too excited about a Romney victory.


18 posted on 08/23/2012 10:23:02 AM PDT by edboock
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To: ThirdMate

“Applied retrospectively, the model predicts the correct winner in every presidential contest going back to 1980, they said.”


Rules that are established after the fact to fit the data aren’t necessarily very predictive, are they?


19 posted on 08/23/2012 10:31:27 AM PDT by Atlas Sneezed (Hold My Beer and Watch This!)
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To: Beelzebubba
Rules that are established after the fact to fit the data aren’t necessarily very predictive, are they?

The global warming crowd is not happy with you.
20 posted on 08/23/2012 10:33:20 AM PDT by DaveInDallas
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To: Beelzebubba

Why even stop at 1980? I can retrospectively predict every presidential election. Going back even farther, I can retrospectively predict the succession of every English monarch. Emperors, Pharaohs, you name it, my model works!


21 posted on 08/23/2012 10:50:33 AM PDT by ThirdMate
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To: ThirdMate

“I can retrospectively predict the succession of every English monarch. Emperors, Pharaohs, you name it, my model works!”

This is August and the prediction is for November. Are you able to do that?


22 posted on 08/23/2012 11:23:03 AM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" ...you didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
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To: ThirdMate
"Retrospectively, I can correctly predict last week’s weather, and I am not even a meteorologist."

Not the same thing.

23 posted on 08/23/2012 11:24:33 AM PDT by mlo
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To: SeekAndFind

0bama will win. He will carry every state he won in 2008 + Missouri. Because of Akin, the womens vote is motivated and will come out in droves for 0bama and vote against the “party of rape”. Also a new poll shows angry youth over the economy (18 - 29) is coming out in droves to vote as well. These punks will go heavily for 0bama as well. They blame Republicans and “rich corporate scum” for the bad economy and they love 0bama’s hand outs. Anyone who thinks 0bama is toast is fooling themselves.

Conservatives fail to realize that most Americans are Socialists now, whether they know it or not. This is not 1980 when Americans wanted freedom and a capitalist driven free market economy with less government intrusion. Americans in 2012 want their food stamps, government housing, eco friendly cars, their abortions, their free birth control and their government run “free” health care. If white dominated the electorate, 0bama would have no chance. But the electorate is heavily dominated by women, youth, homosexuals and minorities.

But a rude awakening is coming to these people real soon. After America overwhelmingly re-elects 0bama in 2012 and gives him back a Democrat controlled House and Senate, it will be 1991 USSR here soon enough. We are going to collapse and will all be in the poor house sooner than you think. And you know what America? You deserve the misery for loving this 0bama. Reap it you stupid Americans, reap it.


24 posted on 08/23/2012 11:25:31 AM PDT by GR_Jr. (Vote Obama out now.....deal with Romney later.)
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To: Beelzebubba
"Rules that are established after the fact to fit the data aren’t necessarily very predictive, are they?"

Necessarily? No. But they can be. If the rules so discovered actually do model predictive attributes.

If the rules were established independently then past results were compared as a test, that's a perfectly good confirmation. If the rules were established to fit past results, they still may be right, but the past results are not a confirmation.

25 posted on 08/23/2012 11:29:25 AM PDT by mlo
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To: GR_Jr.

Your post seriously needs a sarcasm tag Jr.


26 posted on 08/23/2012 11:29:48 AM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" ...you didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
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To: GR_Jr.
And you know what America? You deserve the misery for loving this 0bama. Reap it you stupid Americans, reap it.

We should all just slit our wrists, then. Is that it...???

27 posted on 08/23/2012 11:32:25 AM PDT by okie01 (The Mainstream Media: IGNORANCE ON PARADE)
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To: SeekAndFind

Landslide defeat for 0bama = proof that America is still racist.

That, and the voters are dumb.

Count on it.


28 posted on 08/23/2012 11:36:21 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter knows whom he's working fors)
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To: 1035rep

Yes, in November.


29 posted on 08/23/2012 12:38:06 PM PDT by ThirdMate
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To: mlo

I understand what they are attempting: validating their model by applying past data and comparing the results.

However, beyond the absurdity of “retrospective prediction”, to which absurdity I was drawing attention, there is a deeper objection to the whole approach of modeling, in that modeling attempts to reduce complex systems with random or indeterminate inputs to a defined set of rules. With computing you can use a whole lot of rules and input data in your model, but you still cannot capture the full degree of complexity.

Think of it this way, using the same techniques, you could create a model of stock market performance, and pick the winners. Your model might well agree with past data, i.e. “retrospective predictions”, but how much money are you willing to bet on the future success of the model?

The same is true of weather modeling.

Really, the only true statement we can make regarding model performance is that the model predicts correctly, except when it does not.


30 posted on 08/23/2012 1:10:30 PM PDT by ThirdMate
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To: Buckeye McFrog

The Constitution with the provision for electors appointed by the State legislatures ensures that each State always has its proper representation, no matter how said electors are selected.

The popular vote to chose electors allowed by each State Legislature does not gain validity based on the number of voters participating, since if weather conditions were so severe that it would probably affect rural voters more than urban voters.

Say only two percent of voters in a State could make it to the polling locations, the State legislature could then decide to directly appoint the electors as being a more representative action of the State’s presidential preference, as is their right.

Look at Florida in the 2000 election, if the Gore legal challenges had pushed the Florida elector selection into the ‘safe harbor’ zone, the Florida State legislature would have been within its right to directly appoint a slate of electors - the only “do-over” allowed.

dvwjr


31 posted on 08/23/2012 8:47:57 PM PDT by dvwjr (Gallup)
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