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All signs point to a Romney victory except one (a very big one)
Yahoo News - The Signal ^ | August 23, 2012 | David Rothschild

Posted on 08/23/2012 12:05:04 PM PDT by QT3.14

When you squint your eyes and look only at the broad historical trends at play in this presidential election, all signs point to a victory for Mitt Romney in November.

Back in February, the Signal's first draft of its elections model, which relied only on historical data, predicted that Obama would win the election with 303 electoral votes. This model relies heavily on economic indicators and was published before the dismal second quarter economic figures. If you apply that same model through June, Romney wins with 290 electoral votes to Obama's 248.

(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; 2012polls; elections; obama; romney
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1 posted on 08/23/2012 12:05:10 PM PDT by QT3.14
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To: QT3.14
Mass-email to campaign supporters entitled THE END?
AM I TOAST IN 2012?

"It's August 23rd.
And 75 days from now,
I'll either be looking at another four years in the White House --
or the end of this opportunity."


2 posted on 08/23/2012 12:07:48 PM PDT by QT3.14 (Loyalty to the country always. Loyalty to the government when it deserves it. - Mark Twain)
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To: QT3.14

Let’s hope these predictions also factor in the massive voter fraud, especially in the swing/battleground states.


3 posted on 08/23/2012 12:08:00 PM PDT by DPMD
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To: QT3.14

It won’t be over until the ‘fat guy’ Soros sings. Take that to the bank.


4 posted on 08/23/2012 12:08:40 PM PDT by Don Corleone ("Oil the gun..eat the cannoli. Take it to the Mattress.")
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To: QT3.14

Let’s see how favorability plays out after the convention. ;-)


5 posted on 08/23/2012 12:09:39 PM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: QT3.14
Favorability vs Unfavorability is a subjective thing. I have an unfavorable opinion of Romney compared to true conservatives, but he's still going to get my vote this year. Plus, I have a favorable opinion of Ryan.
6 posted on 08/23/2012 12:12:16 PM PDT by Family Guy (A society's first line of defense is not the law but customs, traditions and moral values. -Williams)
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To: DPMD

Exactly, you always have to factor in the dead voters, illegals, and ACORN voters voting 50 times for Obama. Obama goons will stop at nothing to win in November, they will do every dirty trick in the book


7 posted on 08/23/2012 12:14:08 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: QT3.14

Bullspit... The idea Obama has a prayer for re-election is laughable.

Let me reside over the WORST economic stewardship in everyones living collective memory, but I’m going to be re-elected? Its nonsense.


8 posted on 08/23/2012 12:15:47 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: QT3.14

Even if the trend is important, it is not pointing up for The Disaster.


9 posted on 08/23/2012 12:16:16 PM PDT by arrogantsob (Obama MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: QT3.14

I heard he loves to be buttered.

10 posted on 08/23/2012 12:19:18 PM PDT by GeorgeWashingtonsGhost
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To: Sarah Barracuda

Lots of folks in the Arab world will be voting for Hussein — somehow.


11 posted on 08/23/2012 12:21:42 PM PDT by Jyotishi (Seeking the truth, a fact at a time.)
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To: QT3.14

For those who don’t click the link, the conclusion of the article is that Obama will still win because Obama is more likeable than Romney based on their favorable/unfavorable numbers.

That sounds to me like grasping for a reason to still support the king. I think Romney doesn’t have to be more liked to be elected. I think he needs to appear more competent than Obama to a majority of voters because this election, to many, isn’t about who makes the cutest couple (although that’s likely still true with a lot of women), it’s about which president is most likely to help me/my breadwinner get/keep his job.


12 posted on 08/23/2012 12:23:16 PM PDT by OrangeHoof (Our economy won't heal until one particular black man is unemployed.)
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To: Jyotishi

A win is a win....would like a blowout, but I just want that THING out of the Oval Office!!!!


13 posted on 08/23/2012 12:25:08 PM PDT by Kolath
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To: QT3.14

This is the map that goes with the “big” model mentioned in the article:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=tdw

I built it based on the chart in the article.


14 posted on 08/23/2012 12:25:19 PM PDT by Ingtar (Everyone complains about the weather, but only Liberals try to legislate it.)
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To: QT3.14

I think Romney will win. But I think it will be close.

Obama will enter October far behind, and he will panic. He will then throw open the vote buying to unprecedented levels. Student loan forgiveness, mortgage principle cramdowns, restore usury laws to Visa cards, more free
stuff for Seniors, etc. etc. etc.

He will unfortunately be able to buy enough votes with outlandish promises to make things close.


15 posted on 08/23/2012 12:26:27 PM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: HamiltonJay

I’m calling it 55% / 45% for Romney. :-)

I’ll vote for Ryan like I voted for Sarah (danged top of the ticket!)


16 posted on 08/23/2012 12:26:37 PM PDT by Uncle Miltie (You didn't build that. The private sector is doing fine. We tried our plan and it worked.)
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To: OrangeHoof
I see Obama has turned more desperate having Gawker hack or re post Mitt's Finances he has at Bain now

Just like his Senatorial race

Liberals act like its a smoking gun he has investments at Bain today.

17 posted on 08/23/2012 12:28:31 PM PDT by scooby321 (AMS)
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To: QT3.14
Bush left office with a high favorably rating. People though he was a nice guy, just sucked as President. Presidential Likeability is about the most useless factor to hang your hat on

But when, like the Democrats, your candidates have no solutions or ideas, wishful thinking is all you are left with.

18 posted on 08/23/2012 12:30:22 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: OrangeHoof

It is grasping. First of all, Obama’s “favorability” is still under 50. Any incumbent with polling numbers under 50 is in deep trouble.

But Obama has it even worse: his favorability is inflated. Not by much, maybe 2 or 3 percentage points. But there are many people who are refraining from sharing their true opinion due to the race factor. When you spend four years knowing that any criticism of the president can get you labeled a racist, you tend to keep those feelings to yourself.

To be clear: those two or three points are not closet racists. Just the opposite. They are good people who do not want to be assumed racists.

Now that I’ve posted this, I suppose I’ll be called a racist.


19 posted on 08/23/2012 12:32:34 PM PDT by Mr. Bird
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To: QT3.14

The best leaders couldn’t care less whether or not they are liked. Obama craves being liked or he can’t function.


20 posted on 08/23/2012 12:34:08 PM PDT by cdga5for4
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To: Mr. Bird

OK. Your a racist; now that we have that out of the way, I can say that yes, I am a racist. I will never vote for a RED for any reason at all.


21 posted on 08/23/2012 12:44:26 PM PDT by 5th MEB (Progressives in the open; --- FIRE FOR EFFECT!!)
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To: MNJohnnie

Keep provoking Obama into thin-skinned temperamental meltdowns. A few more outbursts like “you didn’t build that!” and his “likeability” will be in the dumper.


22 posted on 08/23/2012 12:44:48 PM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: OrangeHoof

Was Dick Nixon likeable? Was LBJ? Was Bush 41? Was Woodrow Wilson?


23 posted on 08/23/2012 12:48:38 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: QT3.14
There is one glaringly obvious factor: the favorability difference between Obama and Romney...those Wharton guys never were very smart when it got into understanding the real-world implications of their big business machinations - that's why they always had to have watered-down sections in math and English for Wharton students separate from those in the College at Penn - in any event, this guy doesn't realize that Romney is looked on unfavorably be both those on the left and the far right - but you can bet many of those on the far right are going to be voting for him in spite of their reservations - all the eqivocating aside, he will win big........
24 posted on 08/23/2012 12:50:08 PM PDT by Intolerant in NJ
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To: Don Corleone
It won’t be over until the ‘fat guy’ Soros sings. Take that to the bank.

I think Soros thinks Oboma is going to win. He's taking his money out of the market and buying gold nuggets.

The Ten, standing with pomp and glitter, head for their vaults.
The people, angry and in disarray, loot the shops.
Which of these knew in advance? The eagle? The bear? The crown? The sun?
No, fate was not a consideration for this race.

Remember, Oboma has built and financed (with U.S. tax dollars) a powerful Muslim Caliphate in the middle east. It's the only real thing he's done through his entire presidency.
Why would he do this? One guess. Think Koran. Why would he want to build an army that could go against the U.S. and Israel (Jews and Christians)? Why would he want blood running through the streets? Who does this prepare the way for?

25 posted on 08/23/2012 12:59:15 PM PDT by concerned about politics ("Get thee behind me, Liberal")
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To: Uncle Miltie

55% / 45% was also my pick. And a month or two back I commented that we’ll know, officially, when the Dems know they can’t win: when talk of “unrest” begins. That’ll be the final scare tactic, but it won’t be enough.


26 posted on 08/23/2012 1:11:50 PM PDT by Kharis13 (That noise you hear is our Founding Fathers spinning in their graves.)
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To: cuban leaf

“Let’s see how favorability plays out after the convention. ;-)”

Isaac - 1, Romney - 0


27 posted on 08/23/2012 1:17:12 PM PDT by Marcella (Conservatism is dead. PREPARE)
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To: Family Guy
Favorability is shockingly bad for Romney. Pollsters routinely ask questions like, "Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of …" for both Obama and Romney. Currently, the Pollster average has Obama with 48 percent favorability and 45 percent unfavorability, while Romney is lingering with 41 percent favorability and 47 percent unfavorability.

2 things:

Obama is being held-up by favorables that may not translate to actual votes. People -- particularly left & independent whites -- do not want to paint themselves as racists. The "race card" is being played at every opportunity.

Next there are a whole lot of conservative voters who are skeptical about Romney & his commitment to conservative causes. They may not actually 'dislike Romney' but they are skeptical. Most are so focused on getting rid of Obama, that they will nevertheless vote for Romney.

28 posted on 08/23/2012 1:25:41 PM PDT by Tallguy (It's all 'Fun and Games' until somebody loses an eye!)
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To: Marcella

Isaac could just keep the riff-raff away. :-)


29 posted on 08/23/2012 1:26:13 PM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: Uncle Miltie

52/48 Romney wins. I expect he’ll net just under 300 ev’s.

Obama is going to give away the keys to the treasury in the waning days of the campaign in naked transactional campaigning. That will help him gain ground late. But I suspect it won’t be enough.


30 posted on 08/23/2012 1:28:34 PM PDT by Tallguy (It's all 'Fun and Games' until somebody loses an eye!)
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To: Sarah Barracuda; ExTexasRedhead; ml/nj; 1035rep; QT3.14; LucyT; edcoil; Impy; InterceptPoint; ...
Exactly, you always have to factor in the dead voters, illegals, and ACORN voters voting 50 times for Obama. Obama goons will stop at nothing to win in November, they will do every dirty trick in the book.

Hopefully, at least some of this fraud will be curtailed (in comparison to '08) by the new voter photo ID cards in some states.

Then again, Obama may be too far behind for the fraud and cheating to compensate for his deficit. There is a practical limit as to how much even they can get away with.

As for the posted article, it's a lame lefty's analysis grasping at a straw to predict an Obama victory.

31 posted on 08/23/2012 1:30:35 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: Tallguy
Obama is being held-up by favorables that may not translate to actual votes. People -- particularly left & independent whites -- do not want to paint themselves as racists. The "race card" is being played at every opportunity.

I think Romney/Ryan will win by about 5%.

They'd win more if so many people weren't feeding from the public troth. (These are the people who vote democrat no matter what, because all they care about is getting more of other peoples money.)

32 posted on 08/23/2012 1:32:31 PM PDT by concerned about politics ("Get thee behind me, Liberal")
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To: OrangeHoof

It is a worrying aspect to modern western society that the Pop Idol generation cast their ballot based on some pretty absurd criteria......politics used to be about, policy, principle and charisma.....thanks to the bastards in the media, from Hollywood to the printed and TV Press, it has become a ‘popularity’ contest along the same lines as a TV Talent contest.....this is why, we are forever getting stuck with some vastly under qualified, unworthy politicians reaching very high places....more so than ever.

I won’t bore you too much with the UK scene, but an example would be, we have a buffoon of a mayor in London, a conservative (in party name only he’s actually a liberal), and because of some stupid antics of his during the olympics, he is being hoisted forward a future PM by the media!

We are all in decline, largely because of the power of a few people with great influence.


33 posted on 08/23/2012 1:36:45 PM PDT by UKrepublican
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To: concerned about politics

The people have to understand that they have to “CHANGE” for Obama and not the other way around, and do it all the time, because that is what pervert racists do, they harass all the time.

Also I see Romney going wobbly on cleaning the Obama mess and appointments, just like Bush Jr non-cleaning of the Clinton crap helped erald the Obama crap and voter fraud.

The Alinskization of an harassing gay government goes on after Obama perhaps, and that is a serious problem.


34 posted on 08/23/2012 1:50:20 PM PDT by JudgemAll (Democrats Fed. job-security Whorocracy & hate:hypocrites must be gay like us or be tested/crucified)
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To: cuban leaf

I saw a film of the Tampa convention center and other buildings around there, and it was said that area is 6 ft. above sea level and may well get water. There are contingency plans but the mayor and the Republican chairman won’t tell what they are. That’s why I say Isaac 1 - Romeny 0. There is no way to tell what is going to happen to 50,000 people on their way there.

I also heard for a level 1 hurricane, Tampa residents are supposed to evacuate since it is so low.


35 posted on 08/23/2012 1:51:56 PM PDT by Marcella (Conservatism is dead. PREPARE)
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Comment #36 Removed by Moderator

To: QT3.14

I have an unfavorable opinion of Romney. I will vote for him. I have an no freeking way I will vote for that commie POS opinion of Obama. The poll says both are unfavorable.


37 posted on 08/23/2012 2:00:12 PM PDT by Starstruck (Only the wealthy and the poor can afford socialism)
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To: Ingtar; firebrand; TurboZamboni; onyx; rmlew
I call it this way:

I see Wisconsin going for R&R because of the margin of Walker's defeat of the recall.

I refuse to believe those curmudgeons in Maine (with a Repub. Gov.) will vote for Ø again.

And I say NJ's a squeaker for R&R because of Christy.

Romney 270
ØbowMao™ 268.

38 posted on 08/23/2012 2:03:05 PM PDT by Yehuda (http://jewpoint.blogspot.com)
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To: Yehuda

if it’s that close, Mitt loses(unless they’ve figured in the fraud/cheat factor)

All Franken’s Buick will show up where needed with a trunk full of ballots.


39 posted on 08/23/2012 2:17:02 PM PDT by TurboZamboni (Looting the future to bribe the present)
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To: Starstruck

When deciding on whether to vote for someone for POTUS, “like” ranks far down the list of things that are important to me. I have friends that I like a lot but I wouldn’t vote for them for dog catcher. I don’t really “like” Romney or Obama but I will vote for Romney simply because Obama must go.

I am no longer surprised at the criteria some people use to determine whether someone will be a good leader or not, including such things as not liking their hair, their clothing choice, their voice, etc. Those things can change. Who they are inside and what their accomplishments have been cannot.


40 posted on 08/23/2012 2:20:36 PM PDT by Grams A (The Sun will rise in the East in the morning and God is still on his throne.)
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To: Marcella

Who plans a convention in a hurricane-prone area, DURING HURRICANE SEASON?!


41 posted on 08/23/2012 2:24:51 PM PDT by thefactor (yes, as a matter of fact, i DID only read the excerpt)
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To: QT3.14

I only want to see slow, steady increases in Romney’s favor. I do not want one of us to get even a little bit complacent.

SOOOoooo much can and likely will happen between now and Election Day I don’t care what the polls say (although I study them every day!)


42 posted on 08/23/2012 2:24:58 PM PDT by SE Mom (Proud mom of an Iraq war combat vet)
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To: justiceseeker93

I am signed up to be on “Lawyers for Romney” to do vote fraud monitoring.

still waiting for my assignment.


43 posted on 08/23/2012 2:28:49 PM PDT by GlockThe Vote (The Obama Adminstration: 2nd wave of attacks on America after 9/11)
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To: GeorgeWashingtonsGhost

He likes to be jammed, too.


44 posted on 08/23/2012 2:30:32 PM PDT by fwdude ( You cannot compromise with that which you must defeat.)
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To: Yehuda; Political Junkie Too; Impy; InterceptPoint; fieldmarshaldj
I disagree with your map as follows:

States that you have GOP that will go Dem: Connecticut (7), New Jersey (14). Total = 21 EVs.

States that you have Dem that will go GOP: Ohio (18), Virginia (13), Minnesota (10), Colorado (9), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4). Total = 66 EVs.

Final Total: Romney 315 EVs, Obama 223 EVs.

Warning: Subject to change between now and Election Day.

45 posted on 08/23/2012 2:30:32 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: Yehuda

Uh, Obama ain’t takin’ Virgina. Them’s fight’n words.


46 posted on 08/23/2012 2:34:13 PM PDT by fwdude ( You cannot compromise with that which you must defeat.)
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To: fwdude
I know, I know!!! Freudian slip!

VIRGINIA

(kind of like Pubic service announcement.)

47 posted on 08/23/2012 2:37:25 PM PDT by fwdude ( You cannot compromise with that which you must defeat.)
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To: Mr. Bird
To your point:

Currently, the Pollster average has Obama with 48 percent favorability and 45 percent unfavorability,

Yet, the most reliable polls currently available -- the The Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls -- have Obama trailing Romney by 47-45 and 47-43, respectively.

There are those 2-3 percentage points you're referring to --people who will admit to "liking" President Obama, to avoid a charge of racism...but won't vote for him.

And I'd wager there are 2-3 percentage points more who claim they're going to vote for Obama on the phone...but, once inside the privacy of a voting booth, will do otherwise.

48 posted on 08/23/2012 2:38:35 PM PDT by okie01 (The Mainstream Media: IGNORANCE ON PARADE)
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To: thefactor
Who plans a convention in a hurricane-prone area, DURING HURRICANE SEASON?!

Not pansies, that's for sure.

But it looks like another storm is brewing that's aiming at the East Coast. Wouldn't THAT be something?!

49 posted on 08/23/2012 2:40:27 PM PDT by fwdude ( You cannot compromise with that which you must defeat.)
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To: HamiltonJay

Hey, FDR got reelected in ‘36, so anything’s possible.


50 posted on 08/23/2012 2:42:57 PM PDT by Cyber Liberty (Obama considers the Third World morally superior to the United States.)
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