Skip to comments.All signs point to a Romney victory except one (a very big one)
Posted on 08/23/2012 12:05:04 PM PDT by QT3.14
When you squint your eyes and look only at the broad historical trends at play in this presidential election, all signs point to a victory for Mitt Romney in November.
Back in February, the Signal's first draft of its elections model, which relied only on historical data, predicted that Obama would win the election with 303 electoral votes. This model relies heavily on economic indicators and was published before the dismal second quarter economic figures. If you apply that same model through June, Romney wins with 290 electoral votes to Obama's 248.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
Let’s hope these predictions also factor in the massive voter fraud, especially in the swing/battleground states.
It won’t be over until the ‘fat guy’ Soros sings. Take that to the bank.
Let’s see how favorability plays out after the convention. ;-)
Exactly, you always have to factor in the dead voters, illegals, and ACORN voters voting 50 times for Obama. Obama goons will stop at nothing to win in November, they will do every dirty trick in the book
Bullspit... The idea Obama has a prayer for re-election is laughable.
Let me reside over the WORST economic stewardship in everyones living collective memory, but I’m going to be re-elected? Its nonsense.
Even if the trend is important, it is not pointing up for The Disaster.
I heard he loves to be buttered.
Lots of folks in the Arab world will be voting for Hussein — somehow.
For those who don’t click the link, the conclusion of the article is that Obama will still win because Obama is more likeable than Romney based on their favorable/unfavorable numbers.
That sounds to me like grasping for a reason to still support the king. I think Romney doesn’t have to be more liked to be elected. I think he needs to appear more competent than Obama to a majority of voters because this election, to many, isn’t about who makes the cutest couple (although that’s likely still true with a lot of women), it’s about which president is most likely to help me/my breadwinner get/keep his job.
A win is a win....would like a blowout, but I just want that THING out of the Oval Office!!!!
This is the map that goes with the “big” model mentioned in the article:
I built it based on the chart in the article.
I think Romney will win. But I think it will be close.
Obama will enter October far behind, and he will panic. He will then throw open the vote buying to unprecedented levels. Student loan forgiveness, mortgage principle cramdowns, restore usury laws to Visa cards, more free
stuff for Seniors, etc. etc. etc.
He will unfortunately be able to buy enough votes with outlandish promises to make things close.
I’m calling it 55% / 45% for Romney. :-)
I’ll vote for Ryan like I voted for Sarah (danged top of the ticket!)
Just like his Senatorial race
Liberals act like its a smoking gun he has investments at Bain today.
But when, like the Democrats, your candidates have no solutions or ideas, wishful thinking is all you are left with.
It is grasping. First of all, Obama’s “favorability” is still under 50. Any incumbent with polling numbers under 50 is in deep trouble.
But Obama has it even worse: his favorability is inflated. Not by much, maybe 2 or 3 percentage points. But there are many people who are refraining from sharing their true opinion due to the race factor. When you spend four years knowing that any criticism of the president can get you labeled a racist, you tend to keep those feelings to yourself.
To be clear: those two or three points are not closet racists. Just the opposite. They are good people who do not want to be assumed racists.
Now that I’ve posted this, I suppose I’ll be called a racist.
The best leaders couldn’t care less whether or not they are liked. Obama craves being liked or he can’t function.
OK. Your a racist; now that we have that out of the way, I can say that yes, I am a racist. I will never vote for a RED for any reason at all.
Keep provoking Obama into thin-skinned temperamental meltdowns. A few more outbursts like “you didn’t build that!” and his “likeability” will be in the dumper.
Was Dick Nixon likeable? Was LBJ? Was Bush 41? Was Woodrow Wilson?
I think Soros thinks Oboma is going to win. He's taking his money out of the market and buying gold nuggets.
The Ten, standing with pomp and glitter, head for their vaults.
The people, angry and in disarray, loot the shops.
Which of these knew in advance? The eagle? The bear? The crown? The sun?
No, fate was not a consideration for this race.
Remember, Oboma has built and financed (with U.S. tax dollars) a powerful Muslim Caliphate in the middle east. It's the only real thing he's done through his entire presidency.
Why would he do this? One guess. Think Koran. Why would he want to build an army that could go against the U.S. and Israel (Jews and Christians)? Why would he want blood running through the streets? Who does this prepare the way for?
55% / 45% was also my pick. And a month or two back I commented that we’ll know, officially, when the Dems know they can’t win: when talk of “unrest” begins. That’ll be the final scare tactic, but it won’t be enough.
“Lets see how favorability plays out after the convention. ;-)”
Isaac - 1, Romney - 0
Obama is being held-up by favorables that may not translate to actual votes. People -- particularly left & independent whites -- do not want to paint themselves as racists. The "race card" is being played at every opportunity.
Next there are a whole lot of conservative voters who are skeptical about Romney & his commitment to conservative causes. They may not actually 'dislike Romney' but they are skeptical. Most are so focused on getting rid of Obama, that they will nevertheless vote for Romney.
Isaac could just keep the riff-raff away. :-)
52/48 Romney wins. I expect he’ll net just under 300 ev’s.
Obama is going to give away the keys to the treasury in the waning days of the campaign in naked transactional campaigning. That will help him gain ground late. But I suspect it won’t be enough.
Hopefully, at least some of this fraud will be curtailed (in comparison to '08) by the new voter photo ID cards in some states.
Then again, Obama may be too far behind for the fraud and cheating to compensate for his deficit. There is a practical limit as to how much even they can get away with.
As for the posted article, it's a lame lefty's analysis grasping at a straw to predict an Obama victory.
I think Romney/Ryan will win by about 5%.
They'd win more if so many people weren't feeding from the public troth. (These are the people who vote democrat no matter what, because all they care about is getting more of other peoples money.)
It is a worrying aspect to modern western society that the Pop Idol generation cast their ballot based on some pretty absurd criteria......politics used to be about, policy, principle and charisma.....thanks to the bastards in the media, from Hollywood to the printed and TV Press, it has become a ‘popularity’ contest along the same lines as a TV Talent contest.....this is why, we are forever getting stuck with some vastly under qualified, unworthy politicians reaching very high places....more so than ever.
I won’t bore you too much with the UK scene, but an example would be, we have a buffoon of a mayor in London, a conservative (in party name only he’s actually a liberal), and because of some stupid antics of his during the olympics, he is being hoisted forward a future PM by the media!
We are all in decline, largely because of the power of a few people with great influence.
The people have to understand that they have to “CHANGE” for Obama and not the other way around, and do it all the time, because that is what pervert racists do, they harass all the time.
Also I see Romney going wobbly on cleaning the Obama mess and appointments, just like Bush Jr non-cleaning of the Clinton crap helped erald the Obama crap and voter fraud.
The Alinskization of an harassing gay government goes on after Obama perhaps, and that is a serious problem.
I saw a film of the Tampa convention center and other buildings around there, and it was said that area is 6 ft. above sea level and may well get water. There are contingency plans but the mayor and the Republican chairman won’t tell what they are. That’s why I say Isaac 1 - Romeny 0. There is no way to tell what is going to happen to 50,000 people on their way there.
I also heard for a level 1 hurricane, Tampa residents are supposed to evacuate since it is so low.
I have an unfavorable opinion of Romney. I will vote for him. I have an no freeking way I will vote for that commie POS opinion of Obama. The poll says both are unfavorable.
if it’s that close, Mitt loses(unless they’ve figured in the fraud/cheat factor)
All Franken’s Buick will show up where needed with a trunk full of ballots.
When deciding on whether to vote for someone for POTUS, “like” ranks far down the list of things that are important to me. I have friends that I like a lot but I wouldn’t vote for them for dog catcher. I don’t really “like” Romney or Obama but I will vote for Romney simply because Obama must go.
I am no longer surprised at the criteria some people use to determine whether someone will be a good leader or not, including such things as not liking their hair, their clothing choice, their voice, etc. Those things can change. Who they are inside and what their accomplishments have been cannot.
Who plans a convention in a hurricane-prone area, DURING HURRICANE SEASON?!
I only want to see slow, steady increases in Romney’s favor. I do not want one of us to get even a little bit complacent.
SOOOoooo much can and likely will happen between now and Election Day I don’t care what the polls say (although I study them every day!)
I am signed up to be on “Lawyers for Romney” to do vote fraud monitoring.
still waiting for my assignment.
He likes to be jammed, too.
States that you have GOP that will go Dem: Connecticut (7), New Jersey (14). Total = 21 EVs.
States that you have Dem that will go GOP: Ohio (18), Virginia (13), Minnesota (10), Colorado (9), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4). Total = 66 EVs.
Final Total: Romney 315 EVs, Obama 223 EVs.
Warning: Subject to change between now and Election Day.
Uh, Obama ain’t takin’ Virgina. Them’s fight’n words.
(kind of like Pubic service announcement.)
Currently, the Pollster average has Obama with 48 percent favorability and 45 percent unfavorability,
Yet, the most reliable polls currently available -- the The Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls -- have Obama trailing Romney by 47-45 and 47-43, respectively.
There are those 2-3 percentage points you're referring to --people who will admit to "liking" President Obama, to avoid a charge of racism...but won't vote for him.
And I'd wager there are 2-3 percentage points more who claim they're going to vote for Obama on the phone...but, once inside the privacy of a voting booth, will do otherwise.
Not pansies, that's for sure.
But it looks like another storm is brewing that's aiming at the East Coast. Wouldn't THAT be something?!
Hey, FDR got reelected in ‘36, so anything’s possible.