Intrade still has Obama ahead. Pick your seer.
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I like the theory of Intrade. However, it can easily be, and likely is, gamed.
Obama supporters are very aware of Intrade, and are likely dumping $1000’s and $1000’s of dollars in to help perpetuate the myth that he is “leading”. This is cheap for their campaign, similar to buying ad spots. Intrade must be loving it.
I’ve seen that on Intrade and IEM—what’s it called, “pump and dump”? Jack the price of the stock up and dump at the last minute.