Skip to comments.Mason-Dixon Poll MO: Akin -9, Romney +7
Posted on 08/25/2012 7:28:45 AM PDT by C19fan
QUESTION: If the 2012 general election for Missouris U.S. Senate seat were held today, would you vote for Claire McCaskill, the Democrat, or Todd Akin, the Republican?
CATEGORY McCASKILL AKIN
State 50 41
QUESTION: If the 2012 general election for president and vice president were held today, which one of the following tickets would get your vote?
Category Obama Romney
State 43 50
(Excerpt) Read more at stltoday.com ...
Interesting poll. Looks like Romney didn’t take much of a hit at all.
So much for the Rasmussen Poll showing Romney down by one. I am beginning to wonder about rasmussens Polls. He reports every day on the Presidential race and for weeks now, he has shown Romney up 2 on one day and down 2 the next and back and forth every day like that It has become almost boring and predictable. I think pollsters have a vested interst in keeping this thing tight.
So much for the Rasmussen Poll showing Romney down by one. I am beginning to wonder about rasmussens Polls. He reports every day on the Presidential race and for weeks now, he has shown Romney up 2 on one day and down 2 the next and back and forth every day like that It has become almost boring and predictable. I think pollsters have a vested interest in keeping this thing tight.
Pretty much what I expected. Akin is toxic, but Romney will take the state.
Why is Akin staying in? If he did the honoeable thing and drop out, he might still have a future with some of his party firends. Staying in and losing this winable seat will close every door that might have been open to him. I hope the SOB enjoys his retirement!
Why is Akin staying in? If he did the honorable thing and drop out, he might still have a future with some of his party friends. Staying in and losing this winable seat will close every door that might have been open to him. I hope the SOB enjoys his retirement!
LMAO...just yesterday the tone here was:
OH MY GOD PLEASE HELP US, ROMNEY IS GOING TO LOSE BECAUSE OF TODD AKIN AND WE ARE ALL GONNA DIE...HELP PLEASE!!!!!!
I swear...sometimes here...I just shake my head in wonder. If we are conservatives and act so daft and unrestrained and wobbly just imagine how that 30% diehard progressive community must be
Pray for America indeed.
Yes - Akins won’t ride R/R coattails.
Well Rasmussen is a pretty reliable pollster but so is M-D as I recall. +7 vs +1 is a big difference. I wish we had internals, particularly the R/D/I numbers for this poll. I looked for them and came up empty.
It would be nice to see the internals to see how they arrives at that.
He thinks he's on a mission from God, and he's willing to be a martyr. The perceived "persecution" proves this to him. His inner-circle echo chamber reinforces this belief, as does Huckabee.
Akin may not cost us the White House, but may still cost us the Senate.
So he said, I have been very zealous for the Lord God of hosts; for the children of Israel have forsaken Your covenant, torn down Your altars, and killed Your prophets with the sword. I alone am left; and they seek to take my life.
Then the Lord said to him: Go, return on your way to the Wilderness of Damascus; and when you arrive, anoint Hazael as king over Syria. Also you shall anoint Jehu the son of Nimshi as king over Israel. And Elisha the son of Shaphat of Abel Meholah you shall anoint as prophet in your place. It shall be that whoever escapes the sword of Hazael, Jehu will kill; and whoever escapes the sword of Jehu, Elisha will kill. Yet I have reserved seven thousand in Israel, all whose knees have not bowed to Baal, and every mouth that has not kissed him.
1 Kings 19:10,15-18
Obviously, Akin isn't the only person in God's arsenal. The only thing keeping us from winning this seat at this point is Akin's ego.
The concern is not so much what Akin does to Romney in MO. It is what his continued ballot presence, air time, etc. does to Romney plus other REPUB candidates in the states that are much closer. His monumental errors (does he really think he understands biology?) and lack of perception will provide the RATS with a persistent slegehammer to hammer us with throughout this election.
Akin = free ticket for RATS from being saddled with destroying the economy and taking away our liberties.
I seriously recommend a two week rule for Akin. That is, after two weeks what are his poll numbers?
Typically pollsters take this into account, after a candidate does something good, their poll numbers jump up; if they do something bad, their poll numbers fall down.
But after two weeks they should be back to more normal numbers.
The critical thing to look for is if he has a “dead cat bounce”, that is, his poll numbers seem to be returning, but then slump back down.
Akin was right, however, in that a 10-point drop is actually not bad after a major gaffe. Had it been 25 points or worse, it would have been over. But with about 70 days left in the campaign, 10 points is possibly recoverable.
However, liberal pollsters will *not* publish a poll after two weeks if Akin has mostly recovered. So keep an eye out for more honest pollsters at that time. My guess is that he should be about -4 at that point, almost back in the margin of error.
Progressivism is the epitome of selfishness.
Akin is down nine in this poll, not five. A week ago, he was leading.
I agree that we should see where the poll numbers are after a couple of weeks—several polls, done by different outfits, and how they are trending. As of now, it has been less than a week. If, after a couple of weeks, Akin is within five, then he has a good chance of pulling it out. If he is down 10+, then it will look unwinnable. But even so, it doesn’t look like Akin would get the message.
Well -- look at that. Akin is up 1 since the Rasmussen poll and Romney got a big bump. So the sky is not falling over Missouri is it???
Ride this out Missouri. Akin has plenty of time to turn it around. He needs to forget about his stupid comment and go on the attack on McCaskill’s record. People will be sick of the story by October.
It's actually a 21-point drop. Akin was up by 11 prior to his implosion. McCaskill is now up by 10, per Ras.
Obamas Democratic support in the state remains largely unchanged at 96%, and voters not affiliated with either major party still favor Romney by 20 points. But Republican support in Missouri for the partys likely nominee has fallen from 94% in late July to 85% now,
The hit Romney took in MO was not people moving to O or the independent vote bailing, it was the hard core of the GOP base pissed at him for trash talking Akin. Those people are not going to stay pissed if people would simply SHUT up about Akin. Conservatives are the one who keep beating this dead horse. It is stupid and self defeating.
It’s actually been somewhat volatile. According to Rasmussen:
6/7 Akin +8 (M-A 42% to 50%)
7/30 Akin +3 (M-A 44% to 47%)
8/22 Akin -10 (M-A 48% to 38%)
But my estimate is that, by 9/5, Akin should be up to about -4. If that is the case, then he is recovering. (And remember that margin of error is about -/+3.)