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Mason-Dixon MO poll: Romney up 50/43 over Obama (Likely Voters)
Hotair ^ | 08/25/2012 | Ed Morrissey

Posted on 08/25/2012 7:30:03 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

When National Journal buries a lede, man, they really bury it. A new poll from Mason-Dixon in Missouri of 625 likely voters shows what everyone already suspected --- that Todd Akin had blown a nine-point lead in Missouri's US Senate race and now trails by five, 49/44, to Claire McCaskill. But what many didn't expect was that the crash-and-burn of Akin would not damage Mitt Romney at all. In the 9th paragraph out of ten, we find out that Romney leads Barack Obama in the critical swing state, and it's not all that close:

McCaskill's lead is a testament to the damage caused by Akin's remarks. She remains less-than-popular, as slightly more voters view her unfavorably (41 percent) than favorably (39 percent). And, despite worries that Akin's remarks could also harm the candidacy of presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor leads President Obama, 50 percent to 43 percent. Obama's favorable-unfavorable split of 38 percent-48 percent is worse than McCaskill's.

It's not even close. Obama carries the metropolitan areas of St. Louis and Kansas City, but only by 50/39 and 50/43, respectively. Romney gets over 60% in every other area of the state, while Obama can only get to 36%. Obama has leads among women and 18-34YOs, but only by 2 and 10 points, respectively. Romney wins a majority in every other age demo, and has a +14 among men at 54/40. Oddly, the newspaper’s table doesn’t break out independents in the presidential race.

The presidential race isn’t likely to change much, either. Romney’s favorables are a modest 44/32 for a +12, with 23% neutral. Obama, the current incumbent, is at -10 with a 38/48, and 14% neutral. That doesn’t suggest that the Akin debacle is damaging Romney at all, nor boosting Obama. While the 23% neutral is both a risk and an opportunity for the less-well-known Romney, the 14% neutral for an incumbent as well known as Obama is mostly a downside risk; few people will suddenly discover they like Obama in the next few weeks who haven’t already come to that conclusion.

As far as the US Senate race, it’s amazing that Akin’s still within five points — a testament to the weakness of McCaskill. On the question of whether Akin should withdraw, a slim plurality of McCaskill voters say he shouldn’t (44/40) … but a majority of Akin’s self-described voters think he should, 50/34. Independents think he should withdraw by thirty-two points, 57/25, but 35% of them will still vote for Akin. His favorables are at -39, 17/56, and yet he’s still getting 44% of the vote. Like I said … amazing.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: Missouri
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; masondixon; missouri; poll; romney

1 posted on 08/25/2012 7:30:18 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Obama has 0 Chance in Mo


2 posted on 08/25/2012 7:32:29 AM PDT by scooby321 (AMS)
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To: scooby321

Is it possible for Missourians to vote for Romney/Ryan AND Clare McCaskill at the same time?


3 posted on 08/25/2012 7:35:14 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: SeekAndFind

Idiot or not, if he’s only down by 5 its pretty stupid to pull all his support and funding.


4 posted on 08/25/2012 7:35:14 AM PDT by icwhatudo (This is not a choice between Romney&Reagan-Its between Romney & most radical leftist Pres in history)
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To: SeekAndFind

Yes. McCaskill’s goal all along was to get the people who are splitting their tickets voting for Jay Nixon (Dem governor who is cruising to re-election) and Mitt Romney to vote for her over Akin. It would have been a tall order a week ago...now it’s pretty much a foregone conclusion.


5 posted on 08/25/2012 7:46:17 AM PDT by PAConservative1
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To: SeekAndFind
"Is it possible for Missourians to vote for Romney/Ryan AND Clare McCaskill at the same time?"

Are you trying to summon the Freetards? lol...

6 posted on 08/25/2012 7:47:55 AM PDT by StAnDeliver ("So, a Mormon and a Catholic walk onto an aircraft carrier...")
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To: SeekAndFind

This seems more likely the scenerio. Rasmussen was probably shilling for the GOPe to pressure Akin to get out.


7 posted on 08/25/2012 7:53:05 AM PDT by wolfman23601
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To: FReepers; Patriots; FRiends



PLEASE DONATE TODAY!

8 posted on 08/25/2012 7:58:47 AM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: SeekAndFind
Is it possible for Missourians to vote for Romney/Ryan AND Clare McCaskill at the same time?

The vote seems to be splitting the same way in MA, but in reverse.

Scott Brown and Obama leading.

9 posted on 08/25/2012 8:11:43 AM PDT by BlatherNaut
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To: icwhatudo

> pretty stupid to pull all his support and funding.

How stupid would it be to be seen as supporting his comments by supporting him? The rest of America is not MO.


10 posted on 08/25/2012 8:17:48 AM PDT by soycd
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To: SeekAndFind

Akin is only down 5 to Air Claire. Maybe we get behind the idiot and sit him on the Senate panel for Science. LOL!


11 posted on 08/25/2012 8:38:25 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: icwhatudo

“only down by 5”

And a replacement would be only a few points better off.
The PACS will come back if needed.

His biggest obstacles are his age- it’s going to take a lot of personal appearances to turn this around-
and Missouri’s lack of voter id...


12 posted on 08/25/2012 8:40:44 AM PDT by mrsmith (Dumb sluts: Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat Party!)
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To: nhwingut

Makes sense. He’s already on the House Science Committee.


13 posted on 08/25/2012 9:22:52 AM PDT by A'elian' nation (Political correctness does not legislate tolerance; it only organizes hatred. Jacques Barzun)
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To: nhwingut
Akin is only down 5 to Air Claire.

5 point gain in 24 hours. If he keeps it up he'll be 25 points ahead in a week.

Akin's gaffe will run it's course. Akin will be the next MO Senator if Freepers and other Conservatives get behind him.

14 posted on 08/25/2012 10:26:48 AM PDT by P-Marlowe (There can be no Victory without a fight and no battle without wounds.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Akin could actually win this thing if he can put the stupid comments behind him, and not go on a seemingly endless apology tour like George Allen did. Only being down by 5 isn’t bad for him at this point.


15 posted on 08/25/2012 10:55:26 AM PDT by KoRn (Department of Homeland Security, Certified - "Right Wing Extremist")
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To: SeekAndFind

I never thought we would lose Missouri.

Obama’s favorable-unfavorable split of 38 percent-48 percent is worse than McCaskill’s.


16 posted on 08/25/2012 11:09:25 AM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" ...you didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Recent poll results from Real Clear Politics

Rasmussen Tracking
Obama +1

CNN/Opinion Research
Obama +2

Gallup Tracking
Tie

FOX News
Romney +1

Associated Press/GfK
Obama +1

NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl
Obama +4

Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun
Obama +1

LA Times/USC
Obama +2


17 posted on 08/25/2012 12:37:04 PM PDT by gunsequalfreedom (Conservative is not a label of convenience. It is a guide to your actions.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Recent poll results from Real Clear Politics

Rasmussen Tracking
Obama +1

CNN/Opinion Research
Obama +2

Gallup Tracking
Tie

FOX News
Romney +1

Associated Press/GfK
Obama +1

NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl
Obama +4

Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun
Obama +1

LA Times/USC
Obama +2


18 posted on 08/25/2012 12:37:25 PM PDT by gunsequalfreedom (Conservative is not a label of convenience. It is a guide to your actions.)
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To: wolfman23601
Rasmussen was probably shilling for the GOPe to pressure Akin to get out.

Might want to read the Rassmussen poll. What his poll said there was a 15% drop in MO GOP support for Romney while the Dem and Indy support for Romney remained unchanged. Rass was telling the GOPe to back off, he was NOT shilling for them in the least

19 posted on 08/25/2012 1:12:22 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: icwhatudo

To: SeekAndFind

Idiot or not, if he’s only down by 5 its pretty stupid to pull all his support and funding.
///////////////////////////////////////////

That’s a no-brainer.

Too bad Priebus and the other geniuses now have their egos invested in crushing (the delightfully uncooperative) Akins, rather than in helping the duly nominated Republican Senate candidate from Missouri (whose ‘criminal’ record extends merely to one stupid sound bite) WIN.


20 posted on 08/25/2012 9:27:44 PM PDT by man_in_tx (Islam is a Hate Crime. (Blowback: Faithfully farting towards Mecca five times daily!))
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To: KoRn

To: SeekAndFind

Akin could actually win this thing if he can put the stupid comments behind him, and not go on a seemingly endless apology tour like George Allen did. Only being down by 5 isn’t bad for him at this point.

///////////////////////

Amen. He has apologized for the costly fumble in the first half.

Let’s move on and win in the second half.

Apparently, the GOPe believe in kicking the quarterback off the team for one costly mistake.


21 posted on 08/25/2012 9:30:48 PM PDT by man_in_tx (Islam is a Hate Crime. (Blowback: Faithfully farting towards Mecca five times daily!))
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To: SeekAndFind

If Akin is really within five, can he pull it off? It’s still more than two months ‘til the election.


22 posted on 08/26/2012 5:59:24 AM PDT by stevem
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To: icwhatudo

He’s down 9. The original story was wrong and later corrected.

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/08/25/mason-dixon-mo-poll-romney-up-5043-over-obama/

Corrected version:

“When National Journal buries a lead, man, they really bury it.  A new poll from Mason-Dixon in Missouri of 625 likely voters shows what everyone already suspected — that Todd Akin had blown a five-point lead in Missouri’s US Senate race and now trails by nine, 50/41 [see update], to Claire McCaskill.  But what many didn’t expect was that the crash-and-burn of Akin would not damage Mitt Romney at all”


23 posted on 08/26/2012 6:51:22 AM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: wolfman23601

See Post #25

This poll is very close in results to Rasmussen. Akin is down 9.


24 posted on 08/26/2012 6:54:00 AM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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