Posted on 08/27/2012 6:47:45 AM PDT by CaptainK
I am thinking the same way. BTW I enjoy your posts and insights on other threads. They are very well thought out in detail.
Those who are I’ll informed lack fundamentals which is why they are easy prey for propagandist. In this day and age a lack of being informed is no excuse. The only conclusion is that people are so self-centered that they just don’t give a hoot until every other November or local election comes around. To top it all off, they start complaining then vote for the same crap they complain about. My take, they love being taken care of but hate bureaucratic snafus and vote for people who think they can grease the machine better. We are screwed by self-centered ignoramuses.
Look, you folks have to realize these polls float up and down. You are not going to see “real” polling results until both conventions are over, and...we are seriously into the race. I watched and studied closely a great number of political races where the poll results were far off the mark, not because they biased, but because they could never get straight answers from those polled. These rolling polls, like Rasmussens, are subject to variation over the three day sprints theyar take. And...yes weekends skew the polls.
Two examples I like to cite, which can be applied to many races. The Rubio/Crist senate race, and....the Cruz/Dewhurst senate primary. Both Dewhurst and Crist were gigantic favorites. The polls were not even close until the very end, when it became obvious, to even the dumbest moron, that Rubio and Cruz were going to wipe out Crist and Dewhurst. On the other hand, the PPP poll had the Wisconsin govenor recall race down to a one point race, the day before election day. And, Scott Walker wiped out the Democrat Party by a seven point victory.
Stay strong!!! Romney/Ryan will win handily, if we all get out there and vote!!!
I really don't see why polling more or less Republicans on weekends would make any difference whatsoever in the poll results. Rasmussen has set his turnout model at something like R+1 and so there are going to be more R votes in the mix than D votes by one percentage point, no matter how many Republicans vs Democrats answer the phone.
What really matters in the poll is how many Dems are voting for Romney and how many Republicans are voting for Obama. That's what Rasmussen is looking for in his polling (plus the split for a few other demographic categories). Although I'm betting that the D vote for Obama and R vote for Romney is in the high 80's to low 90's there will be a statistical fluctuation in those values. That's the noise we see in all the polling at least for those pollsters who operate with a consistent turnout model and that would include Rasmussen.
Ras in 08.
The 5 day w/leaners:
08/26/2008: McCain – 46%, Obama – 46%
08/25/2008: McCain – 45%, Obama – 48%
08/24/2008: McCain – 45%, Obama – 48%
08/23/2008: McCain – 46%, Obama – 48%
08/22/2008: McCain – 46%, Obama – 47%
The 5 day w/o leaners:
08/26/2008: McCain – 44%, Obama – 44%
08/25/2008: McCain – 42%, Obama – 46%
08/24/2008: McCain – 43%, Obama – 46%
08/23/2008: McCain – 42%, Obama – 45%
08/22/2008: McCain – 43%, Obama – 45%
Akin + Romney’s little “joke” about his birth certificate which brought on 3 days now of intense media discussion and condemnation (and NO talk of economy)
You’ve got a bunch of people who are supported by government, and a bunch of people who are supported by China.
Both of those are wrong. Neither will be corrected by complaining.
Work. Work. Work.
The only poll that really counts is the one on Election Day. We have about 9 weeks to nudge those numbers a bit, though frankly, it’s at least a dead heat if the polls numbers are that close already.
Is it Zogby who doesn’t poll over weekends because he says you can’t get a good sample?
and many on our side never call them out.
This morning Rubio said the media are mostly fair and always try and to be fair to both sides.
Perino said people wil learn about Romney.
Really hw about calling out this bozo and the media, how about saying that the message is harder because the media doe snot cover both sides fairly and name names.
These idiots think if they;re nice or not call the media out by naming names then the media might like them
Agreed. This is going to come down to turnout and who is most motivated. The economy will be the primary motivator.
There are good friends of mine who are convinced Clinton and the DNC created the internet boom of the 90’s and Bush killed it.
Only a solid 8 years of improvement under the GOP is ever going to change their minds.
I also have relatives and friends who are Obama voters - prisoners of the MSM.
most correct post on this thread.
The view, Good morning America, Today show, Late night shows, Jom Stewart, Maher and their evening news is where most get their so called news from.
Now facebook etc is beocme a place I’;ve noticed when I used to go on facebook where the liberals are out inforce trying to covinvce their less poltical pals Romney and the republican hate women etc
Most I;ve talked to have never heard of Akin so that is all B/S
It explains the popularity of Will Ferrell films.
In 2008 I could not convince a woman in my church that Obama was pro-abortion because, “He is a Christian, and he can’t be pro-abortion”.
I always ask her political things because she is a snapshot of the uniformed electorate. She’s not dumb, but doesn’t follow politics at all. She gets her news from the MSM.
BTW, she’d knows now very well he is an abortion diehard, and she’d NEVER vote for him.
again on this thread you hit the nail on the head.
Ever watch th eback drop crowd at the obama rallies?
We always see the dozy woman jumping up and down like a lunatic, the couple of women, or they look like women[never can tell with the women on the left like men on the left looking like women] They are cheering, all giddy, jumping up and down, shoputing, crying, screaming etc.\\\
\OMG you know like I saw obama like and he looked at me OMG is was so cool, you know I nearly toiuched him and like I tried to get a photo n my tablet but I was so like over crying with excitement
Obama is up 4 in swing states.
"Measure of confidence? Romney kicks $3M to NRCC, NRSC While Obama refuses to help Dem committees EdMorrissey @EdMorrissey"
Romney hasn't been spending much, but he's raising more money than Obama. Obama has been spending more money than he's been raising. In 2008, Obama outraised and outspent McCain by 2:1. This is not happening in 2012.
I'm not worried about the polling this week or next week. I'll worry if Romney and the Republican superpacs don't start spending soon, though.
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